Is Breaking RIGGED? The Truth About Backyard Breaks LOADED Boxes 👀 

All I can say is with certain cards reaching these modern values, there is NO chance they are distributed randomly. Too much money involved.

I worked for mission the tortilla and chip maker and they have these plastic boxes that their chips go in and those plastic boxes have radio tracking devices embeded into the box itself i say all that to say if they can track a $50 box of chips then you better believe its possible some one can track 6-7 figure cards

The reason why Lebrun Logo was pulled late was because Panini wanted people to buy cases hoping to hit it!!! They gave it to Backyard after 80% of cases are sold so they made their money!!!!

Definitely needs to be investigated and It won't be the first time the FBI got involved in the sports card industry.

The real dumb thing going on is people buying into breaks in the first place

Sports card investor the data doesn’t lie and breaks have ruined allocation for smaller shops it’s closing out people I want to buy from. It’s not only possible it’s happening and breakers always get more product period it’s a shame

Fun fact. The Melo logo man that geoff mentions was pulled from a box purchased from BYB which just adds even more gas to the fire. There's definitely hanky panky happening over there.

The reason why all the other breakers are telling you that Geoff is because they have to shield each other. Josh Luber was getting that set up with them. Honestly! Every box has a bar code and the companies know exactly whats in them. There is always somebody seeing what is going in each box and so thats how they track them. With so much money involved of course they are doing their job at making sure their connections get the product.

I believe Backyard breaks is 100% set up. The fact that they all recorded breaks, it advertised the products so Panini would benefit. I think the card market blew up and having these big hits shown are suppose to spark/ keep excitement. If Panini isn’t getting a kick back, the advertising would make it worth it to them. If Panini isn’t involved, that means Backyard breaks has someone on the inside telling them when these one of one’s were printed so they can order big supply. Or selling them the boxes knowing they contain the one of ones.

Panini doesn’t even put odds on their packs, they are definitely capable of shenanigans.

to me I wonder when people say ''its because they rip so much product'' but if you look at other breakers for example Laytonsportscards they don't hit nowhere as crazy hits as BYB.

Geoff’s example of his 1/49 and 49/49 has holes in it. He sent in multiple redemptions and just cuz ALL of them weren’t printed special like that doesn’t mean Panini didn’t give me a special on a couple cards.

Respectfully Geoff you can’t hold water to what any other breaker says because they don’t want their breaks falling off because customer’s perception will be “why would I break with you when BYB has all the hits”…it’s all about self preservation of their business

The Lamelo Ball Logo Man also came from a box purchased from BYB.

The NT Lamelo Ball logo man was pulled from a case acquired from Backyard themselves. A friend of the company who literally called it b4 he pulled it.

You guys didn’t bring up the fact that they also have done a shady thing by giving someone Jaguars for free and when the Trevor Lawrence Gold hit, they wouldnt give it to their customer. Them being unethical and shady makes them suspicious of doing more dirty deeds.

There is a lot of dishonesty in this world including the sale of sports cards. It's good to make money to pay bills, but some like Panini have gotten way too greedy.Hopefully God will touch their hearts and make them see the errors of their ways. God bless and keep you all. Tom V.

100% loaded box. you cant talk your way out of straight maths. no matter how convincing you want to be

Would not surprise me at all if backyard breaks are doing something shady. I mean they screwed over a person on a live break in a giveaway and didn't even get a slap on the wrist from Panini or Whatnot. Smells like a deal is going on between Panini and Backyard.🙈🙈

It wasn’t just those 4 cards it was a bunch of other cards.

The LaMelo Ball logo man case was bought from back yard breaks. The guy opening that case was bragging about pull the logo man before he opened the case

Layton has been breaking for so long and they never hit as much as Backyard

I only entered a few breaks before I realized it was a complete waste of money.

that lemalo ball that was pull the other day was a box sold by back yard breaks to the guy that opened

To be honest, Ive wondered about loaded breaks in the past myself? I used to take part in breaks of a very popular breaker (not mentioning the name). And it seemed like every break he did, there would be some amazing cards and also, more often than it, those cards would show up in the very last pack he opened!? Which of course turned into "last pack luck" claims by many. Eventually he started charging more than I felt the breaks were worth and I stopped doing them. Not sure if hee started charging more because he had gotten the last pack luck reputation passed around to increase sales or if it was just a coincidental price increase.....

So I’d like to throw a couple of scenarios out there. I will only speak about the Lebron triple logo for the sake of the breaks. That card was hunted by a ton of people. Many of them were high-profile people with a lot of money. The more boxes that were opened without hitting the Lebron the prices of all the other boxes went up. Now, do we know who had these boxes to sell, and do those individuals have any strong relationships with the distributor? Then finally after most of the boxes open up the good ol backyard breakers find it. Kinda convenient right? As the market is slowing down how do you get top dollar for high-end boxes? I think there is a much bigger picture that nobody is even thinking about. The reason why you can not count out people from the distributor being involved in the back door antics is that you see it all the time in businesses that produce and/or move products. I was the GM of a delivery company (one of the big ones). The GM before me got caught in a massive theft ring that went between states involving sorting facilities, aircraft, dock workers, etc... Reported tens of millions of dollars worth of packages were stolen from gaming stores, sunglass stores, apple, and more in addition to that they were moving narcotics being dropped off at drop boxes inside of office max stores, and the driver picking them up got paid to make sure it got through the sort. My point is if all that can happen for 6+ years, most certainly can a distributor hook up a breaker. Sure you can give them the benefit of the doubt, but the odds math is there. Does not look probable that they are just lucky. Of course, none of us know for sure, but there is a strong possibility shady practices were/are going on. I don’t know what went or goes on, but there is always going to be a whole bunch of what ifs…

It could have obviously changed but a video I watched regarding panini and how they do patch cards showed the jersey pieces or memorabilia are laid into the sheets by hand. So having a sheet of 1/1s and laying them in by hand is happening. Making it very likely they pay attention to where those cut sheets go. So it’s more probable than not that they can be distributed selectively.

Sounds like Geoff has some friends at Backyard Breaks haha. No way they got those hits in a legit way

Backyard breaks pulled a gold Trevor Lawrence kaboom and the person that was suppose to get it, did not get it! I have watched the videos of this happening and man this was shady as hell! No way they could have hit all 4 of those cards! It doesn’t pass the smell test, no matter how it is explained

Here’s the problem as well. They have been caught several times doing very shady stuff. So it’s not like this is strange for them.

They are 💯 % getting loaded orders from Panini but I feel that Whatnot is also involved in the shenanigans some how.

The biggest hits of the biggest sets need to “make the rounds” from a live break, to being graded, then going to goldin and having a huge advertising campaign about the card. If Panini sends those rare cards to dealers in other countries or a small shop in a rural town in the US; that card will miss it’s “press tour”

Mad respect for T-Pott. He's absolutely right that the math is the math. Compounding probability does make this almost impossible. And as a breaker, I think it's imperative to have transparency around the packing process. Stories like this give breaking a black eye when the reality is the majority of breakers actually are there for their customers, are honest and care for the hobby and it's loyalists very much.

About a month ago I walked into my local Target and decided to buy the last retail pack of NBA Hoops for $2.99. The last pack in the Box had been sitting there for weeks no one bought it. I just wanted to open something so I grabbed it and what are the odds I pulled an Evan Mobley rookie Auto gold numbered 6 out of 10. Crazy odds can be hit once maybe even twice by the same person but four times is getting a bit crazy it's like winning the lottery four times.

The smartest guy at the table is teapot, and he’s saying there’s an alarm bell. The one that bothers me is the Cade from prizm, however the other 3 is hand packed, and that is worrisome.

Are you going to redo this video and talk about what we now know about the kaboom case hits? And how its possible to know what is being hit?

This reminds of a true event that took place about 20 years ago. A friend was a graveyard clerk at a 7/11. Around 2 am on one perticular evening, a woman in a business suit and driving what appears to be a black car with government plates. She walks directly to the counter and proceeds to play one particular scratch ticket. With the situation already beyond sketchy, she stays at the counter to scratch off and cash in any winner and continues on the same ticket. At one point, she even won $50 & $20 back to back, and didn't stop. She gets towards the end of the roll, and what a coincidence, she hits the top prize of $30K. With no smiles or emotion, the lady showed my friend the ticket and immediately left. It was obvious from every common sense perspective that the lady worked somewhere within the state lottery. She knew where the winning ticket was located when the new roll was activated the second that bar code was scanned. We live in a sinister, corrupt world of crooked politics that is blindly overlooked every day.

The 1/1 logoman came from backyard break originally the breaker said. Seems they got to hot and past it off to a small breaker.

Actually kinda crazy that as you were preparing to make and post this video today, the Topps marked pack scandal develops THE SAME DAY! Something is definitely up with companies having knowledge and influence on where top cards are and are being sent.

Hearing this reminds me of McDonalds where an inside security officer was handing out the winners to relatives and others taking kickbacks during multiple Monopoly games. It took one of the insiders to come forward for McDonalds get an Feds involved.

Breakers get big pull hits based on their frequency and location. Florida breaks gets amazing west coast big cards ! South gets north ect… the card companies absolutely know where every mid- high dollar card is at any time.

It could happen very easily hide a apple air tag in the box when sealing then they can track exactly where it's shipped to and buy that exact same box doesn't seem too hard to me if you have a guy on the inside

It's funny because they say breakers say this holds no water. It's like asking a criminals in jail if their innocent, lol. They are all going to say their innocent. They are on the same boat. Their not going to throw water inside the boat to sink it 😂. There is too much money in it for these breakers to do that to another

That other hit was supposedly sold by backyard breaks to a friend down the street, the hobby house made this claim and then basically told everyone to get a life

Ofc Panini would want this to happen. It gives false hope to normal people thinking they're able to hit these themselves and it makes them go out and get product themselves

It just seems very odd those guys get a lot of those hits, the average person will not be able to pull those cards let alone a hit on a blaster box or even a single pack. Panini should address this situation. From bad quality issues bro being unresponsive with emails and now this, way too much drama has been coming out lately. People are crazy buying into these breaks with these prices. Might as well buy a box and playing it safe opening it by one self.

Geoff Wilson, I just lost all respect for you backing back yard breaks

Honestly. I think panini and What Not can be doing something shady together. It’s also a way to build hype and to make sure these huge cards aren’t pulled right away. There protecting there product prices by waiting to be pulled. Products would crumble if these cards were pulled right away.

One of my favorite parts of collecting cards is actually opening the packs. Why would I have someone else open my cards for me ? The whole concept of buying into a break seems like it was created to scam people

Seems like it would be a distributor issue not panini issue. Hobby House hit the Lamelo 1/1 logoman and they’re 30 minutes from Backyard…

One question... Who regulates breaking??? Nobody. So any breaker is not lawfully forced to allow an inside investigation

Hey Teapot! Check out Sports Card Radio's video about how someone figured out how to determine which Crown Royale boxes have Kabooms! Lol

Geoff will ALWAYS DEFEND “fellow” scammers

Geoff sat right there with Layton breaking that case at the national with amazing big hits right in a row. These companies know where the hits are going. Historic autographs did the same thing at the national with the 2013 ha originals set….I watched all the biggest hits pulled at one show. I’ve watched the same with other products at shows. You think they don’t do this to showcase their products? Layton sat right there with that look on his face of I knew this was in this case with Geoff saying what a case. I’ve watched the same scams with super break products.

I never realized how blue collar the hobby was until it hit a brick wall with the statistical “complexity” brought on by this BackYard Breaks/Panini drama

I never trusted back yard breaks from the start, and I really don’t trust a guy who has a thing for belly buttons!

With all of the issues panini is having during what may be their last few years, they could have an inside person who is manipulating the printing machines making sure to get certain hits at certain times and then shipping specific cards sealed Into cases to backyard breaks for money under the table. I dont believe this is happening but it's certainly a possibility

Lamelo 1/1 was sold by Backyard to him. He tweeted it. So the Lamelo was sold by Backyard Breaks.

I agree with T-Pot. Unfortunately everything in the hobby is not on the up & Up

Thanks for helping me get completely out of this sham of card collecting. Feeling like a fool and his money.

Backyard breaks should be called: back door breaks

Let’s not forget the gold Trevor Kaboom that they totally gave away…3 times.

Extremely odd 1 breaker would hit all 4 cards.

Honestly I think this whole breaking thing is going to end up getting regulated by gambling laws

We need a backyard breaks interview ASAP get them on

It’s not a fallacy Geoff because it’s not a random set of 4 cards that they pulled. It is THE BEST 4 cards.

Plot twist the Lámelo Logoman was pulled from a box purchased from Backyard Breaks…. That fuels the conspiracy a lot more ….

Im confused as to why Geoff is trying soo hard to ignore the numbers. YOU CAN"T IGNORE THE NUMBERS.

I worked for a huge jewelry corporation in the 90’s. They had a give-away for $50,000 in jewelry. The person in charge of the promotion was to choose the entry from over 65,000 mail in entry forms and store contest entries. They announced the winner and I recognized the name. (His married sister who didn’t go by her maiden name). The second prize was a $15,000 Rolex. One in a 65,000 chance that the manager of one of the biggest stores won it.

So we think... that 1 person within Panini.. Packaged or was involved in the packing of every single 1/1 Product Hit.... That doesn't add up in itself. And if they didn't individually pack it they knew someone ELSE within the company to get the package ID from? Seems like a lot of moving pieces to not surface by now.

YES more 90s, and not just basketball there is a ton of rare baseball stuff that's way better than the more known (star rubies, noyz boyz etc.) Inserts. 90s stuff is also rare and condition sensitive enough that you don't need to hunt only "psa 10s". Good episode keep it up guys!

"machine printed and no one has the ability to do it"... Really Also how backyard getting thier hands on such high percentage of the products?

One unquestionable fact... Backyard ain't giving these breaks away

If people hit newer products sooner, the rest of sales would become devalued. Could be rogue employees but the chase is what keeps the hobby alive.

I think that Panini or the printers are just lazy. Too many boxes I have seen open have no rookies hits and a box with many rookie hits, even some with the same rookie back to back in the same pack. Just lazy sorting this past year especially.

Panini threw you a bone, no matter how many other redemptions you sent in with that order.

Great video guys...I love the conversation. Here are a few thoughts of my own as it pertains to ur guys convo.. 1. "Diminishing supply" is the real texas sharpshooter fallacy here. You can't just discount the probability that these big cards could have been in another breaker's/collector's box that was opened prior. T-Pott said it well...if I would have looked at the odds of hitting multiple cards like a random Rudy Gobert Logoman and a Shake Milton Black/Gold /5, that would've been a TSS fallacy. Instead, I looked at the top cards out of the top products. If there is any valid argument I've seen here, it's that other top NFL products need to be taken into account too. 2. I think your estimates are high. 40% of flawless + 30% of NT + 10% of Prizm would have been over $50M of product. I know BYB does a lot of business, but $50M+ on these three products alone? Then you'd have to imagine BYB is doing several hundred million of revenue a year. I'm skeptical of this. 3. The data doesn't even take Prizm Hobby into account, because the production numbers are unknowable. A *true* calculation of the odds would require knowing the production run of Prizm Hobby. Only Panini knows this, and hopefully they do their own calculations. It will make the odds immensely less likely. 4. The 1/49 and 49/49 example has two big issues. One, you're assuming the allocation of cards here is random. It likely is not random. Two, this is an actual texas sharpshooter fallacy. If you only sent in those two redemptions, then it wouldn't be. But because you sent it in with a bunch of other redemptions, you'd have to look at the total odds across all your redemptions you sent in that any of them would have the first and last serial. 5. It is my understanding that BYB buys *some* of their inventory direct from Panini. 6. What other breakers say bears no wait in my opinion...they are all incentivized to have this not be a story. If BYB gets loaded boxes, people are more likey to break with BYB. If Panini is giving out loaded boxes, people are less likely to rip wax in general. If there is foul play here, it could result in government regulation with breaking...which would put all breakers out of business. Or, if you really wanna put your tinfoil hat on, you may argue that they're all in on it, and all getting certain specific cards guaranteed to them. In general, if they're just anecdotally saying these things without evidence, then it's just anecdotes. 7. If Panini can't mess with the Prizm print run, then how come there are never two black shimmers pulled in a single FOTL box? Black Shimmers fall 1:23 boxes. If these boxes were truly randomly packed, it would be statistically impossible to have exactly ZERO boxes with TWO 1/1 Black Shimmers. Yet this is what we have seen. 8. Panini's incentives seem obvious. I don't think their incentives or lack thereof are all that important here, but since it seems to be a sticking point for Geoff, here are a few possible incentives: Panini makes breakers buy a certain amount of product to be guaranteed big hits, big hits get pulled by breakers with huge audiences and casual customers think these cards are more common than they really are, Panini gets to benefit from all the press around the big cards being hit/selling (ex. LeBron Triple Logoman in Times Square) which wouldn't happen if the card was never pulled. Ultimately, I think we agree on what next steps should be. And that's what's most important! 1. There needs to be a 3rd party investigation here. 2. Panini should put pack odds on every product. 3. Panini should release print run info on every product. Transparency is needed...it will lift the whole industry up immensely! Like you, I'm a life long collector who just wants the best for the industry. Excited to see where it leads, and hopefully this conversation leads to real changes, innovations, and improvements for the entire industry! Keep up the great work guys!

Great content! T-Peezy dropped the data bomb! All made good points. But T-Pott is on to something!

T-Pot is right.!! With so many packs that are out there in the Nation at every shop and Stores!

It's not just them. Seen way too many Kabooms and 1 of 1s pulled on day 1/2 of release by content creators. They're gifted loaded boxes, sheep on the internet see the pulls and then go crazy buying every remaining box driving the price through the roof. Pretty simple marketing if you take your head out of your ass and pay attention.

The LaMelo logo man was pulled from a box bought from backyard. That guy who bought the box was there buddy. So more hanky panky

T-Pott, you should consider breaking away on your own.

Of course the big breakers are getting loaded boxes…it’s adds to the hype, so panini and topps will try to capitalize on that. Get their products viewed by as many people as possible.

Geoff, I actually gained a little respect for you today. Although I disagree with you, the fact that you said an investigation is needed (which I think we all believe) is huge and great that you made that statement.

I wanna know... 1.what's the chances the biggest chases everyone is looking for ends up at their doorstep instead of anywhere in any part of the world where other breakers live? I saw the timeline and they all hit exactly 3 weeks for each other,why? I even remember how the lebron triple logoman was the biggest chase everyone wanted so when backyard announced that they pulled it I looked it up and saw that that specific card was pulled a month before and there's 2 reaction videos of the guys pulling that 1/1 card twice. 1 before the whatnot announcement and another during that announcement.

The breaker that pulled the Lamelo out of NT said he bought the case from Backyard

I can't believe I am agreeing with TPot. It would be one thing if they were hitting a lot of big /10, /25 type hits across multiple products, but they are hitting multiple epic 1/1s. To simplify the whole how it is really easy IF you have the right connections. The distributor could have the in with the manufacture to get access to better juiced boxes. With that, BYB could be paying more to get access to these known juiced boxes. They may not know how good the boxes may be, but it is more plausible that something is happening than they are just extremely lucky, consistently.

At the end of the day if you actually think Backyard Breaks is not being fed loaded boxes you are a fool. If you want to be a lemming to the hobby then keep those blinders on. Key statement in this conversation, "Absent of the print runs." Exactly!!! There is no transparency whatsoever from Panini. You don't know the print runs, you don't know what is held back - yes Panini holds product back for damage card claims, etc... Whatever is not used up after the 2 year window is then released in Panini Rewards and white/black boxes. There is a history of suspect activity such as the 2021-22 Crown Royale basketball box holo serial numbers where certain serial numbers indicated where the Kabooms were located. Add to this that Panini themselves have been caught red handed in downright egregious actions, most recently high-end redemption cards that customers were waiting years for that all of a sudden are being found for sale. Backyard Breaks has shown many times that they are willing to scam/deceive (Trevor Lawrence Gold Kaboom for example). Panini has shown many times that they cannot be trusted. There is a reason why there is a lack of transparency as it's easier to not be seen when hiding in a cloud of smoke. Could Backyards breaks pull those 4 cards? Of course, just like anyone else could have. However, it's so highly unlikely that they would have that it is almost certainly due to illicit influence.

1% chance to hit those cards BYB would have to buy 80 million dollars of product? P.S. Has anyone looked at the people who got the card and any of their relationships to people who work at Panini?

You know it really does seem unbelievable that this would be happening but then again you look at the fact that it's not just 2 cards which could easily happen! not 3 cards which could happen even though it would be very very unlikely! But 4 cards???? And not just any breaker but the most popular breaker?? And it just so happened to start after the most controversial pull back the Trevor Lawrence gold kaboom??

Backyard Breaks obviously have a sugar daddy. Now it seems, that sugar daddy may work at Panini, or has a lot of pull there.

The former owner of my local card shop complained that he suspected card companies of "Front Loading" their products, especially Panini. He believed they did this to bolster the product from the release. Then in 2012 he had a packed store when Contenders was released. One customer bought several boxes (at least 6), one after another. HIs 2nd box and last box were Luck RC Auto hits. Another customer hit a RG3 Auto RC (different case). I gave his argument its due weight, just as I give T-Pott's suspicion it's due weight.

What happened to the big hits? Did they break those cases and send them off to customers or did they keep them for themselves?

it's odd that the hits are mainly Panini based and not other card companies.

How is it only one in the 117,000? Tbh those seem like decent odds compared to most other types of gambling.

Do you know that the case that the LaMelo came out of was sold by Non other than backyard breaks

Has anyone looked to see who these kids parents are? Wouldn’t surprise me if one of their parents works for panini and they had the idea for their kid to do these breaks 😮

Topps already said the top cards will be going to breakers.

I have a redemption 2021 that I have never got back yet and I messaging messaging messaging several times and no response at on from panini plus when I buy-boxes or packs I have never pulled anything that was a big hit from them and I collected for 30 years

Imagine sending loaded boxes to a group you already know is crooked .. kaboom anyone ?