Is Relativity Space's Terran-R Rocket In Trouble? 

It’s been in trouble from day 1. Rocket Lab are always very accurate and honest with their predictions and roadmap.

I can already see this scene in Wild Wild Space 2. Once the contracts have to move over to Neutron and SPB is just like.. yep.. we launched them for full price.

I've remarked elsewhere that the funniest thing is Rocket Lab now advertises their large-scale carbon fiber fabrication services as a separate line of business. So they're doing the "use our manufacturing tools for external customers" thing that everyone thought Relativity would pivot to...only they're doing it better, because they haven't shown the world that *even they themselves* think it's better to use Old Space subcontractors like Beyond Gravity rather than their own equipment.

Relativity CEO Tim Ellis was spouting a lot of buzzwords -- 3D printing, big data, etc -- to people who weren't mechanical engineers (that guy Chamath Palihapitiya studied electrical engineering, as did Jeff Bezos, yet he doesn't seem to have even a basic understanding of metallurgy)

I bet that they offered their customers two things: 1. No upfront payment. 2. Cancellable at any point by the customer.

Smoke and mirrors. Bet the investors wished they’d invested in RKLB this year

Relativity seems to me to be another example (Astra?) of these Silicon valley VC fueled vapour-ware bros, more interested in cashing out their share compensation before it all goes tits up than actually doing stuff properly.

Tim Ellis wanted to imitate Elon Musk as a salesman but came up short, partly because he did not surround himself with people like Tom Mueller, who could do the ‘dirty’ work, the real engineering work behind the bombastic statements.

I first heard of Relativity when Veritasium made a video about them three years ago. As a space nerd, it’s kind of sad to see what they’ve become. But as someone with RKLB shares good luck Tim, my moneys on Peter and his team.

I really just think that Relativity has been trying to model itself on spacex and it constantly gives ASTRA vibes, just with the benefit of private VC money. I can't help thinking that a day of reckoning will come where they have to deliver or pack up.

Very insightful to see that Rocket Lab and Relativity have raised the same amount for dramatically different results. Once Neutron is on the pad, 1-2y before the Terran R, the game will be set

Almost Ponzi Scheme. Out of money? Let's get some more contracts. It's like a contractor who takes YOUR money to finish the LAST job and he never quite catches up and it all comes falling down. Another reason to respect Peter Beck's disiplined business accumen.

Just like Big Data, 3D printing, and Web3, it comes down to who can tell the best story. Leverage media contacts through the VC firms that back them to pump as much as possible. Chamath being involved should have been a dead giveaway not to take notice.

Thank you Dave. You are the man.

Elizabeth holmes/Sam Bankman-fried/Tim Ellis At this point when i see Chamath Helipopotito being in then I immidiately assume that some sort of scam is taking place here.

Hey Dave - while Relativity is falling down, Rocket Lab is moving onward and upward! Stock price has stayed in the 7's for the past week!

Chamal often pulls the rugs on stocks. Swearing he's 100% in, then dumps the stock leaving others holding the bag. Relativity is probably going to be a great company. But be careful when ever Chamal is pumping a company.

You should make a video of all the times pump and dump Chamath has been proven wrong. His comments about Rocketlab, “the incapable New Zealand competitor” or his 2020 Virgin Galatic comments have just been hilariously wrong. And then his comments about Relativity, he clearly was trying to pump Relatively to take it public via SPAC before the bubble burst.

I used to be an aerospace engineer and had some involvement and knowledge of 3D metal printing. I know enough about the process to realize that it is not a magic solution for all aerospace structures 20 years ago. There are some things that it makes sense but not for others. One of the biggest issues for its use as a pressure vessel is that it produces a wavy uneven surface and can sag due to gravity when you try to build it up unsupported. Wavy surfaces at geometric discontinuities causes stress risers, which is bad for your design. Don’t think that the engineers within Relativity thought this approach through before proposing it.

Relativity is Toast. it is just a question of how long it takes for that reality to sheet home.

Great reporting Dave! Now relativity’s backlog was for launch, only? I didn’t hear anything about any of their other abilities. That would be a Considerable backlog for launch only. That’s like 10 times the launch backlog for rocket lab?. Perplexing

I'm an investor in this sector, including Stoke, SpaceX, and a lot of satelite startups (along with public companies like RKLB). Your analysis is good, and you should feel free to be critical of a company, especially one like this which is executing a pivot. I have access to Relativity shares and just decided to pass on buying because I prefer to wait until they have turned a corner and are demonstrating strong execution of their plan. Stoke, for instance, is doing exactly that, even though they have not launched yet (and I expect Stoke will have some failed launches.) So, don't hesitate to do analysis like this...as long as you are being prudent and fair, the bear case is FAR more valuable than Bull hype.

Excellent. Nicely done David.

Another VO or Astra in making.

I am on Rocket Lab side over Relativity because they have a better track record.

The backlog claims don’t stack up unless they bought into hype. I doubt that company will last. Feels like another Astra.

Nobody cares how the rocket gets made. It just has to launch (with a passing grade.)

Great video on Relativity Space as always Dave. I wonder if it would be worth doing a video on Adam Spice's tenure at broadcom and analyzing how well the company did while he was there.

Terran R? More like Terran OS 😅😉👌

I think this is the first relativiy video i have seen. I know people who bought based on their engineering like pre error welding or somthing. Thyre. All in on that but reluctant on rklb for some reason

Nice one Dave.

❤ it when RKLB trolls the competition 😜

„In Cape Canaveral I think”. So he was not even sure about the location? What kind of ignorance it is.. or incompetence. I don’t trust people who have thaat gaps.

I don´t take Relativity seriously yet, they have accomplished nothing yet. I certainly don't take Chamath´s claims seriously, he is a better salesman than investor

😎

TLDR: They are fucked 😂😂

Vib

Trading volume on RKLB has way more than doubled in the last year, while during prior years it was essentially flat