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Signs that the Fed might lower the federal funds rate soon have sent stocks soaring, even though those signs were weak economic data. So the Fed Put is back. We’re concerned that the Fed might ease too soon, switching its mandate focus from inflation to unemployment. That could be a wrong move given the likelihoods that the soft patch won’t grow into a recession and that trade policies next year are bound to be inflationary. … Our S&P 500 targets might be too conservative if the slow melt-up continues. Then again, the dearth of bears in the market is a contrarian bearish sign. … As for the labor market, we don’t see weakness in the data but normalization.
20 авг 2024
