Japan Spent 60 Billion Dollars Defending The Yen! 

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As a 26 year old, I’m concerned by how much I love listening to Pat on quiet weekends instead of going out an making terrible life choices

I'm losing sight of what value a billion dollars has.

You know it’s bad when people break out the Ancient Greek myths as an analog for your strategy.

I never even knew that there WAS a Japanese Diddy. Thanks for the transpacific rap news, Patrick!

Dark tie and a big city background! This video must be super important!

At 23:41, the Patrick Boyle AI CGI had a glitch. I knew the knowledge of rap news and the lack of blinking couldn't have been the work of an ordinary human.

Clearly, Patrick's AI generator is glitching. Not just the weird edits, but the use of the word "we" instead of "I", and the complete absence of rap and crypto news. I look forward to the next model release.

Unless there is severe deflation, people do not delay purchases due to deflation only. The reason the Japanese didn't purchase has less to do with deflation but to do with economic sentiment. For example for decades the price of electronics have been falling and the quality improving, yet people still buy electronics instead of waiting for the end game. So it is not deflation that central banks should worry about but consumer sentiment, do consumers feel that they will have jobs, will the future be better, no one really cares if prices slightly go down or up in the short term. Deflation isn't the problem, it is demographics, there wasn't enough demand for the supply. Also productivity in Japan which was a world leader became a laggard during the lost decades.

Good topic, I live in Japan outside Tokyo and things are not so promising here. Prices are up. Salaries are low. The shelves are not as stocked as they once were. The new trucking law has put a crimp in the logistics chain too. The main issue with Japan as I see it is the tendency to defer to the aging generation to make the final decision. Its both stultifying and the elderly have very little understanding about how the modern world truly works. If I had to guess I think we see 200 yen to the USD before we see 100 yen to the USD. Hopefully I am wrong.

Economists always say that deflation is bad because buyers will defer purchases as goods will be cheaper later. Japan's deflation has been about -0.1%. Are people really putting off buying a new car, or fridge because next year it will be 0.1% cheaper? I don't think so!

Patrick's film making is brilliant. A lesser creator would have focused the camera on the face, but Boyle has the camera focused on the skyline to prove it is not a green screen.

I just vacationed in Japan. It surprised me how cheap the Yen was.

Patrick casually sitting in some NYC skyscraper is a vibe nothing else can match

I can’t believe Patrick said Japan had a super Asian population…

Still hoping one day Partick makes a yt short that is just rap news. No financial analasys this time just a man in a suit talking about rap beefs.

Very informative & fascinating (as always). I've read that economies are categorized into four types: Developed. Developing, Argentina & Japan. This seems to fit that assessment.

A better idea for the BOJ is to have a volatility target (e.g. 3 to 5 stdev) in order to discourage leveraged bets and force speculators to liquidate positions

It must be tempting for Japanese workers to work abroad now JPY has devalued circa 40% against USD.

It's a testament to just how warped the global financial system has become as even as someone steeped in finance & trading for 10+ years my first question when I read this title was... ""$60 billion, is that a lot?"

Great topic! I’ve been waiting for this one! Thank you!

Patrick your voice always helps me put my daughter to sleep in the car. Thanks for your regular updates about rap music and rap beefs

Switzerland tried the same thing but the other way around (making sure the Swiss Franc isn’t too strong against the Euro) and had to give up. The problem wasn‘t even that it became too expensive, our federal bank just wasn‘t able to pump enough money into the system while staying within the rules. They would have had to just straight up buy large European companies to have a large enough effect but they aren‘t allowed to do that. II wonder if Japan will run into similar limitations.

I'm currently watching a slice of life anime from the 1980's (Maison Ikkoku) and it's kinda bizarre that the prices characters are paying in the show made 40 years ago are very similar to what the Japanese are paying now. Things like small apartments for 60,000 yen a month, and decent jobs paying 1300 yen an hour.

MoF is selling dollars at Y155-160 that it bought at Y80-100. In the interim, it collected higher yields on its USD holdings than it paid on its JPY debt. Buying low and selling high, it has been a hugely profitable trade. They've basically doubled their money, and can use the profits to help pay down their pile of debt.

I have an old friend who speaks Japanese and teaches English in Japan. He says that the "service industries" in Japan is always in flux these days. Restaurants and cafes open one week and close two weeks later. A lot of young people who enter the work force via these jobs are suffering.

You deserve a million subs!! I can’t wait till you hit it bro!!! Awesome content

Your presentation style and sarcasme are awesome! Subbed :)

Great background for this video. Bonus points if you are actually on a sofa backed to a window in an office in a large metropolitan city.EDIT: you know, one way you could increase your rap street cred is a video on the business of Cannabis(especially with the US rescheduling)

Best rap channel ever. Can't stop watching.

3:27 looks like someone forgot to do the ultra key on the subscription graphic lmao

New Specs looking cool 😎.... Professor Patrick

The Japanese economy is an interesting topic looking in, but absolutely terrifying when you live here. Everything has gotten more expensive and salaries aren't keeping up despite what the government hopes will happen. With housing prices rising, living in Tokyo is going to become more and more difficult.

THIS is why I Subscribe!!! Thanks for sharing.

The yen has been at a very big discount for the last few years with no end in sight and almost no one talks about it. I regularly buy product from japan and travel a few times a year and it's really wild how far usd goes now. I find myself buying thing just because everything is basically 20% off from what it was a few years ago. Like many options to sit down lunch and a beer for 10$.

Great as usual Patrick. If possible, could you make a video on interest rates in general and how they are used to influence an economy? thanks! PS.: Get us a video on Portugal! (we keep hearing how the economy is growing and heading in in a great direction, while the middle class struggles more and more to even get a home)

3:27 love this part the most!

Great video! Would love to see an updated video on US debt itself and the international demand for USD. I feel like so much of the push for the gold standard and/or cryptocurrency is tied to a misunderstanding of US debt, institutional investors, currency creation (ex: creation through bank lending vs 'printing.'), etc.

A little over my head and outta my "Wheelhouse" but some of this kinda reminds me of that "run on the Baht" thingy that happened awhile ago.

This is a very good summing up of the problems Japan faces with regards to their currency. I do wonder if our expectations for CBs' ability to influence the economy is excessive and even misplaced. For example, currently Fed has set very high interest rates, which reduces investments and decreases housing supply during historical housing scarcity. US inflation is predominantly from rate insensitive service sector. Its major component rents are even indirectly pushed up by higher mortage rates. Fed may end up chasing its own tail by throttling residential investment. Household formation becomes collateral damage. Crushed dreams of living in a home may explain part of the stubbornly low sentiment. It's also notable that while Fed is discouraging investments, US gov is running enormous deficits partially to encourage investments to onshore strategic industries. Edit: In contrast, Japan actually builds enough homes, which supports real incomes. They probably could tolerate higher rates better than higher import prices.

Saying they “spent” that money to support the yen gives the impression that that money is gone when in reality it’s like if they bought gold. There’s no loss unless the value of what they bought retreats and then a 100% loss would be unlikely.

Patrick can you do a video explaining the musk compensation vote please! would love to hear your take on it and ruthless sarcasm

Patrick is such a professional. I love how he boosts other channels.

Good video. Somewhat confusing how at 2:37 the figure charts went from inverted to uninverted for the same measurements. I would make them consistent between the two figures.

Sorry Patrick but you ignored the elephant in the middle of the room: dramatic population decline. This explains just about everything that is going wrong in Japan. It also explains why no amount of government/monetary intervention will work. What is happening now in Japan will happen everywhere in the western soon.

Thank you Patrick

Great video Patrick…. Love information… Cheers Andrew

Fascinating insight into Japan's economic maneuvers! The strategic interventions reflect not only the complexity of global finance but also the critical role of policy in stabilizing markets during turbulent times. 👍

I wonder how many soviet factory owners desperately tried to explain the concept of an output gap to comrade Stalin, as if their life depended on it...

Love you talks. I put them on to go to bed. I legit love it. My wife thinks Im an idiot. " You always end up snoring then waking up..then snoring." Dunno mate. Its a thing now. Keep er up.

Great video as usual, I'm still laughing about the "Linear City" video, did you mean above 1.60 to the dollar rather than below?

Now where has Patrick broken into for this week's video? I could imagine the hotel room guests coming in and seeing Patrick in the middle of recording his video and him just continuing on completely nonchalantly. Great topic and video as always!

Congress: $60B? That's it? Hold my beer...

Living in Japan 32 years now. I'm actually poorer now then when I arrived as a young man. Shit is expensive and wages make Cambodia look like New York. One thing you didn't touch on was the problem of "Shrinkflation" Japanese companies are reluctant to increase prices so they quietly decrease the size and amount of products in their packages. You see this in Restaurants too with smaller portions. Sucks, but we still have national health Insurance, clean and safe infrastructure, a polite population, beautiful women and a really cool culture. So there is that.

Anyone else realized the desync? I don't think many of us did since he's so monotonous anyway.. 😂 Regardless, I'm a returning viewing because of the quality content. Thanks again for the very informative share!

Thanks 4 ⭐️ Reportage! Listened to several Great Economic Reportage about Japan and this one is as ⭐️ Great!

I never understood the reasoning behind why deflation is so bad. It sounds like a made up argument. I mean if it were true the opposite also has to be true. Meaning in inflationary period people would spend all their savings to purchase a tv, fridge or whatever because tomorrow it might be more expensive. Which is not the case so why should we apply this logic to only one side of the argument?

So if workers get paid more, they buy more things and the economy gets better?! Who would have thought?! Congrats, Japanese government, for trying the rather obvious solution to increase spending: making sure there's money to spend.

Nice new office you got there Patrick 😊

In your description it says that you are a hedge funge manager, university professor and a former investment banker, so I was wondering if this youtube thing is a part time thing you do and maybe if that explains why you seem to take these video in different locations?

USA just checked into the chat...with several trillion.

I get paid in Yen. It's been pretty painful for the last couple of years.

I love the focus on the skyline!

23:35 - man that was a trip

I mean, why would central banks even hold that much FOREX reserve if not to use them to prop up their own currencies? Sure greenbacks are the medium of exchange for strategic economic resources like oil, but holding reserves of the scale that some nations do, it's pretty clear what their intention is.

LOLOL The sponsor copy is great marketing bs. Odoo doesn't charge for it's app, it only charges per user / per month which would be more expensive than buying a license for software in a traditional manner. I mean, respect for trying but maybe leave that sentence out of the copy.

Deflation doesn't lead to economic stagnation historically. Only associated in some instances, whereas in others, it occurred during decades of sustained growth in the US.

At @4:00 you have the subscribe green screen. Seems like a quick editing error to fix!

3:29 blank green i assume suppose to be for picture?

I feel like people who don’t get economics or haven’t lived in a stagnant country don’t understand how big of a deal lack of improvement is. But to the “become an emerging market” thing at the end - I think people with a low-medium amount of Econ knowledge can overplay the importance of indicators like GDP growth - and ignore the fact that it is in the grand scheme of things 1) super wealthy, 2) super Educated 3) super strong institutions 4) super safe and stable. 3 decades of stagnation sucks but let’s not forget that while there are some societal and economic issues, Japan’s absolutely one of the best countries to live or do business in by many measures. And they have an important enough location that if stuff ever got really bad - some western friends would definitely help out in exchange for continued use of some military airstrips.

The problem was trying to get a decent job in Japan for decades. After 20 years of not hiring a segment of the population, now companies are saying they can't find workers. What they mean is - they don't want to hire those people who are now over 40 years old and never had the chance to gain experience. They can't find the 20 year olds that don't exist.

The issue IIRC in japan it's frowned upon to ask for a higher salary, It's seen as being disrespectful to your boss, furthermore switching employers doesn't work neither since you pretty much start from square 1 and climb up. This doesn't encourage wage growth very much.

I like how respectful he talks about Japan

Why do Central Banks do this? Pointless and just burning through reserves. And this are the professionals with PhDs. God help us all.

I’m not sure people do defer purchases with falling prices. I purchase a laptop even though I know it’ll be cheaper and faster a year later…

really interesting analysis of Japan's economy

Is $60 billion meaningful to Japan? I'm not being cute, here. I know it's a wad of money, but is it meaningful outlay to Japan and/or does it have any meaningful, enduring impact? I really don't know. I see the chart presented, showing an uptick of the Yen-to-USD value, but it sort of doesn't mean much to me. Hasn't Japan struggled for about 30 years, now? Does $60 billion thrown at this, at this point in time, make any meaningful impact on adjusting deflation/inflation?

Major Japanese car companies posting record high profits does not bode well for their future, as Chinese EV has eaten up Japanese market share, and in the coming years, Japanese car companies might see profits plummeting

I'm happy I'm going on holiday in Japan in a few weeks 😂

Good show!

Can you get much growth in consumption in a country that is getting older by the day? Young people consume goods, old people not so much.

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What are your thoughts on setting the price of the Yaun daily?

1.Less than 20% of Japanese workers are in the companies giving raises, everyone else is seeing minimal to negative wage growth. 2. More overtime for Japanese workers, really? 3. The population is already skewed to the over 50’s , not risk takers 4. The younger population is shrinking rapidly and making 2000 USD/month 5. The weak yen is not causing any virtuous inflation whatsoever. 6. The JPN politicians and bankers are about as clueless to real reform as to what a 2 week vacation is

Japan's labor is pretty damn cheap nowadays though, especially when calculated per hour worked... It's on the same level as Slovakia and Romania. Japan is a developed country by infrastructure (which was built a long time ago), but a developing country economy-wise.

thats same story. macroecon guys are talking about GDP gap for last 20-30 years. since Paul Krugman wrote liquidity trap paper, thats the only thing they want to talk about when they talk about japanese economy. missing important fact that growing china as super manufacturing giant replacing japan as exporter of industrial goods.

after a long time you have created a video with good substance and erudition instead of pure fun. (I like both though)

Hi Patrick, given your previous scepticism on Bitcoin, would appreciate you producing an updated video on your current thoughts on this, given the uptake of this asset by mainstream investment organisations and looking lke this will only increase...many thanks

23:28 just google structure of Japan government debt and you will find that such a high debt is not a concern as big as it is for Italy or US. I do not think the debt of Japan is a problem for Japan and it is owned by the bank of Japan mainly ... so it's like you owe water to the ocean.

Let's gooooo!

Enjoyable, and informative - as usual. Just one thing: Felt compelled to share this. Nice thumbnail. But I don't think it is conducive for people checking the video out when the link appears with the subtext "Get a free 14-day trial of Odoo’s all-in-one business solution and see how it can make your life easier!.." Anyways, always enjoys your content. This was particularly good

Meant to ask Patrick ~ En Passant ...Can you Give us some Tips on 'Kerchief Folding for Left Top Pocket of Jacket ...Some of your "Folds" are positively(( Comes des Garcons )) Any hints for us Beleaguered programmers Stepping out into the City ?

Square watermelons are still extremely expensive in Japan :(

Waow Patrick live - what a treat!

@PBoyle Is there a country where corporations are NOT reporting record profits?

Japan's economy has suffered from prolonged deleveraging since the bursting of the bubble economy boom. Also the shifting of production to other places from export oriented industries, which have the highest productivity and higher wages, has meant that most jobs have been on low productivity services. And due to a cultural quirk it's accepted that employers can generally abuse their employees, this means a high number of hours and low wages per hour. In fact there are indications that although there's a decreasing percentage of working population wages have generally gone down or stagnated. This results in lower demand in the economy, either due to low investment, inability to spend due to having no free time, and low wages and economic insecurity that keeps spending down.

Japan is pushing ahead now with their new reform to phase out fax machines. It’s hard, it will take five or six years of sacrifices to complete, but after that the central government expects a more modern country with solid growth and increased productivity.

odoo is awesome

Down jones recently hit 40k, is market overdue correction? Can you please make a video on why the stock markets all time highs?

I work and live in Japan (raised here) and the yen-dollar issue is a problem.