Jeffrey Gundlach in Conversation with David Rosenberg | The Bond King Returns 

True, being alive is great!

1 titan. nobody know or cares who rozenberger is

Kind of hard to visualize what things are like after these debt resets happen. I don’t know if Geoff and David are sounding sort of sanguine because they’ve already made a huge amount of money and they can live off the cash and there will be opportunities, but I wonder what they think, our country looks like in a few years when all of our money is going to debt service and it’s entirely possible that some of our richest citizens will decide to move out of the country rather than start paying 80% income taxes. The government already has an exit tax of about 30%, so I just wonder how that scenario is going to play out.

​@@kbkesq The debt situation much less scary than it sounds because for every person paying debt there is someone making revenue. Most US debt is owned by US citizens and corporations, so it's just money shifting around. Foreigners own about $7.5 trillion in US debt, but the US owns about $6.5 trillion in foreign debt. That difference isn't trivial, but it's only about $3,000 per US citizen. The US tax to GDP ratio hovers around 16-19%, while the OECD average is 34%. This represents about $4 trillion annually in untapped revenue if we matched the OECD average ($8 trillion if we matched the leader). Obviously growth would be impacted by higher taxes so we'd never realize this much extra income, but it does illustrate just how low taxes are in the US. All of the problems of high federal debt will eventually need to be solved with higher taxes, targeting mostly the upper middle class and wealthy. Increasing the exit tax will probably also be necessary to stop the wealthy from fleeing before paying their share. Debt isn't the biggest problem though. Slowing productivity improvements and an aging population are. These will need to be fixed by a combination of increased immigration and a lower standard of living. Unless something like improved robotics and AI come in to save the day (by raising productivity), these problems are most likely inevitable.

@@kyleolson9636 Nope Scofflaw: we will not be paying your tab. We will however, are willing and able to carve it out of YOU!

Two who have been wrong for too long.

But David keeps him sharper, I think; cross-pollinating ideas, e.g., when the stimulus checks and high unemployment payments were creating more demand, and inflation was on everyone's mind in 2021, David was saying, "Well, they are stopping now, so expect a fiscal drag ahead." Next time Jeff spoke, I heard 'fiscal drag'; I think he mentioned David too.

happy to see you here! i love your show Julia

imagine him on a bus

😂

hahahaahahaahahahahahahaha

Look at TLT 20 years price NOW , then draw your conclusion

David's record much worse then Jeff's especially since Corona.

Ppp]p

😅

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Yes, scary stuff…

For what ?

Saudi Arabia will accept Yuan , meaning lower US$ overall

What do you mean? I got a check for $20 bucks and treated my lady to burger king drive thru lol...but yes, your point is well taken. For us it just caused inflation. I think they are talking about the cumulative excess savings from the direct checks, child stimmy, enhanced unemployment, etc. That actually amounted to 2.1T. If you are interested the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco actually did a recent research paper entitled, "Pandemic-Era Excess Savings". The short version is the 2.1T has all been spent down since March.

They gave out $1000s to everyone making less than 90k which a few years ago was 80% of people

You kept your job

Well, if you lived in a state like California that got bailed out to the tune of about $100 billion then you didn’t have your taxes go up by double and of course the real stimulus wasn’t just checks. It was bailing out everybody’s banks and the value of their homes, if you only rented and did not provide services that went up in price then perhaps you did not benefit, but everybody got a Bennett on paper by not having their bank go out of business or their house crash and value. We’re going to have to pay the piper on this.

Covid stimulus checks went out to dual income families making up to about $200k combined. The adjusted gross income limit was $174k, and that doesn't include salary that went to 401k or health insurance premiums. If you make over $200k, you aren't middle class. You are upper middle class and should have e weathered Covid just fine. I'm in that group and didn't need the stimulus checks at all.

Jeff is either naive or simply won’t comment on the how the Fed communicates with its banks