Jurrien Timmer: Bitcoin's Risk-Reward 'in Another Universe', Asset Transforming 60/40 Portfolio

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In this episode featuring Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro for Fidelity, we discuss:
- Why TradFi will embrace Bitcoin
- Bitcoin has the 'supply characteristics of gold' and 'demand characteristics of a network'
- How much should traditional investors allocate to Bitcoin?
- How has the 60/40 paradigm evolved and where does Bitcoin fit in?
- Why Bitcoin is exponential gold and an ‘aspirational’ store of value
- Will Bitcoin be the dominant macro asset that demonetizes real estate, equities, bonds, etc?
- Retail vs institutional demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs
- Financial repression and fiscal dominance
- How markets reacts to presidential election cycle
- Do all roads lead to money printing?
Bio: Jurrien Timmer is the Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments. In this role, Timmer is part of Fidelity’s Global Asset Allocation (GAA) group, where he specializes in asset allocation and global macro strategy. Additionally, he is responsible for analyzing market trends and synthesizing investment perspectives across Asset Management to generate market strategy insights for the media, as well as for Fidelity’s clients. Before joining Fidelity in 1995, Mr. Timmer was a vice president in the Fixed Income group at ABN AMRO. He has been in the financial industry since 1985.
Follow Jurrien on X at x.com/TimmerFidelity
⚡ Coin Stories is powered by Bitdeer Technologies Group (NASDAQ: BTDR), a publicly-traded leader in Bitcoin mining that stands alone as the only vertically-integrated, technology-focused Bitcoin mining company. Learn more at bit.ly/bitdeercoinstories.
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🗒️ IN THIS EPISODE:
00:00 Born & raised on Aruba; Dutch origin
1:10 Starting career in banking
3:12 Fidelity's history in Bitcoin
8:27 Bitdeer Technologies Group
9:25 How much should I allocate to Bitcoin?
18:28 Bitcoin in traditional portfolios
20:51 Spot Bitcoin ETFs
25:31 Bitcoin at Burning Man
27:13 Bitcoin price vs. value
30:10 Bitcoin 2024
30:39 Speed Bitcoin Lightning Wallet
30:59 Coinkite Coldcard Wallet
31:21 The Bitcoin Way
31:55 Fed fiscal dominance
40:00 Election year economy
44:29 When will we see a recession?
50:11 Stock market cycle
55:45 Where is Bitcoin going?
59:14 Adding Bitcoin to portfolios
1:05:32 Fountain App
💡 OTHER RESOURCES
Natalie’s website www.talkingbitcoin.com/
Fidelity Investments www.fidelity.com/
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Strike ID strike.me/coinstoriesnat/
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FOLLOW NATALIE ON SOCIAL MEDIA📱
🐦 Twitter / natbrunell
💻 Instagram / nataliebrunell
👔 Linkedin / nataliebrunell
Producer: Aron Bender / aron-bender
DISCLAIMER Coin Stories is for entertainment purposes only and does not give financial advice. #bitcoin #crypto #money

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Опубликовано:

25 июн 2024

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Комментарии : 106

@nataliebrunell 18 дней назад

Subscribe to never miss episodes of the Coin Stories Podcast with Natalie Brunell: ru-vid.com. Beware of impersonators and scammers on RU-vid and all social platforms. We will NEVER ask you for personal information or to send money anywhere. Links to our promotional partners are in the show notes. Thank you for watching!

@_-Wade-_ 21 день назад

Killer interview, worth the wait, bring Jurrien back!

@carlosv8119 21 день назад

Highly credible guest who is at the top 3 ($5 trillion) of the asset management biz. Even though Fidelity is on the sell side, so much valuable than the dozens of influencers, as far as recommending BTC.

@donwooss 21 день назад

Man the comment section is a cesspool of bots wtf

@prancer1803 19 дней назад

The vast majority of the comments. We need something like 1 sat per comment fee to comment. Then the ‘bots’ will have to buy sats to spam

@ronatola 19 дней назад

As a BOT - I take offence to your comment.

@jonrok9493 17 дней назад

I don’t want to be a bot!😂

@ronatola 19 дней назад

Great interview Natalie. I like how you progress the conversation by playing off of what your guests say, rather than just 'on to question #7 on my list'. I like listening to Jurrien considering his vast macro background. Neat to find out he cooks food at Burning Man - lol

@physcomp 21 день назад

@Natalie, you are simply a gift to the Bitcoin community and citizens that give few hours of their life to listen and learn about the one of the most important thing in life - Finance!

@omarjanuyghur1093 16 дней назад

Great interview questions and great explanations again, thanks for everything you have done and thanks to Jurrien for honest explanations!!!

@vinz300000 21 день назад

When BTC hits 100k, I will applaud him

@user-ec3rm9wr1n 21 день назад

Me don't forget me 😭😂😂

@sanderpalaj3948 21 день назад

Very smart and well educated guest 👏👏👏

@satjolk1826 21 день назад

Wow, what a guest 🎉. As always great interview. You need to do something with those bots in the comments. Greatings from Poland.

@ren7sp25 21 день назад

Interesting guest. Lots of good info here.

@jays9870 21 день назад

Terrific guest, really appreciate having him on. Thanks!

@josephscott1952 21 день назад

Gold has a $12T market cap and i dont think it will stay at $12T because investors will want more Bitcoin Therefore Bitcoin will overtake Gold's market capitalization very soon!

@waynerichardson1051 21 день назад

Thanks Natalie... appreciated! Cheers

@user-99.99 20 дней назад

Fantastic interview. Thank you.

@andrewhosker9490 17 дней назад

Great Q&A and insights

@NeuroPulse 20 дней назад

Recessions usually start when the 10-2 spread un-inverts. I believe we are in the longest inversion in history, hasn't un-inverted yet.

@alexandercochrane9410 21 день назад

Another excellent show, Natalie.

@REZZA2020 21 день назад

Greeting from Australia.

@VaIehtIna 21 день назад

Thanks Natalie, the show is very interesting, but you are always great!

@BitcoinChop 21 день назад

Fantastic insights. Thanks for sharing another interesting discussion, Natalie.

@DannyBoy-zv2rp 18 дней назад

Excellent Interview!!

@mylescharlesworth7771 20 дней назад

lol a balanced portfolio. Bruh I’m trying to build real wealth not tred water. I don’t have a 600k retirement portfolio that needs a little jump to stay competitive. I need exponential growth So I don’t have a roommate til I’m 40. I can worry about managing my wealth when I actually have some. Til then and ( honestly probably even after)I’m all in on BTC.

@panduekka4179 11 дней назад

Not a shill, but that Times Square announcement was hard to ignore. Cyberopolis will be big!

@erik7813 21 день назад

engaging chap. loved the listen

@MJ-nh5dq 21 день назад

When is Fidelity bringing Bitcoin ETF's to large corporation's 401K? This would be interesting.

@dc2778 20 дней назад

Good lord, Natalie is just beyond stunning. What a smile. Normally wouldn’t comment on that but jeez. Anyway, wonderful episode.

@Frank30642 21 день назад

BitCoin, There’s No Throat to Choke 😗

@B_knows_A_R_D-xh5lo 21 день назад

lets get in' bitcoins lets gooo

@mcgems754 21 день назад

Burning man cred 😎

@chetandosco 21 день назад

Natalie might be the first perfect human being

@HelenSurina-mv8ot 21 день назад

❤ Universe welcomes Digital Accounts

@TheRealDerekS 21 день назад

Price = 10^-17 days ^5.83

@josephscott1952 21 день назад

As an investor you want pullbacks so you can buy more shares at a cheaper price.

@HelenSurina-mv8ot 21 день назад

Amway still happening?

@josephscott1952 21 день назад

Over the last 6 years i been in crypto Bitcoin is my largest position

@josephscott1952 21 день назад

The stock market only cares about its liquidity is everything in the markets. If investors panic and pull out liquidity thats going to crash the market.

@Andrew-cl9wc 20 дней назад

Good luck at Arsenal next year bro

@bujin5455 20 дней назад

52:03. This is where he proves he has no idea what an S-curve is, despite all of them he's "looked at." S-curves have three parts: the early adoption phase, the mainstream phase, the laggard phase. Generally each of these three phases are equal length. So however long it takes to move through early adoption, is the same time it takes to move through the mainstream. His description is one where he believes we jumped immediately to the mainstream, never having an early adoption phase, and that we're now in the laggard phase (53:29), where things are "fairly valued" (55:00). Of course this makes no f-ing sense at all. We just barely got ETFs this year, and the vast majority of all available capital had no means to participate, even if it wanted to. He needs to read Crossing the Chasm, and understand that things slow down just as you are leaving the early adoption phase, just before the mainstream adoption phase, which clearly hasn't even started to begin yet. Comments on his other comments: 52:46. And rightly so. Address count does not indicate capital participation. This is a capital network, not a social network. Rate of address increase means utterly nothing to capital participation, and just because that's the only thing you can measure, doesn't mean it's reasonable to use it as a proxy. Capital follows a pareto distribution, and not a linear distribution, so address count **CANNOT** serve as a proxy, even as an imperfect one, as each node is not equally valuable, not by a LONG shot. 52:56 - Yep, that's what happens after you start to run out of early adopters, but still having not broken into the mainstream yet, to provide a new wave of adopters. But you haven't identified the first two phases, and so far, the asset is only 15 years old. Phases are generally 10-15 years long, depending on various factors, so to say we're in the third phase, after only 15 years is ridiculous. It's MUCH more likely that we're following a longer adoption phase progression, due to the nature of the participants and structures in question (old people control all of the capital, and they are slow to adopt, and the capital sector is the slowest sector to move), than that we're in an unprecedented hyper accelerated adoption pattern. Especially when so much of the world still has no idea what the asset really is, or what its value proposition is, and especially so amongst the cohort of people that truly matter (the capital controllers). 53:50. Gold was NOT a **NEW** asset class. It was simply re-introduced to the American markets. It didn't take a decade for the market to understand WTF gold even was. So drawing a comparison between something literally as old as dirt, with a pre-existing usage pattern, to a novel technological innovation, with no established art of science, is unreasonable in the extreme.

@dc2778 20 дней назад

Dame dude. Let it rip!

@MadWaloo 21 день назад

If I’m doing the math right, his eventual target for BTC is half the Market Cap of gold, so $12 trillion gold MC $6 trillion BTC MC (1/2 gold MC) $285,714 BTC ( $6 trillion divided by $21,000,000 BTC) Seems low. Am I missing something?

@ceerawlins3412 21 день назад

16T....380k

@bitcoinaruba8406 20 дней назад

Aruba power 🎉

@ceerawlins3412 21 день назад

Real inflation is well over 7%.....bonds are a losers game

@josephscott1952 21 день назад

While investing in Bitcoin, your next investment should include Ethereum. Once you have Ethereum. Seek out the next piece of crypto that has been in its correction phase, Litecoin. If you look at your portfolio you have the 3 main cryptos, Solana still runs off of Ethereum and will never overtake Ethereum, Ethereum will never outperform Litecoin. Bitcoin will never outperform Litecoin. Litecoin should definitely be in your portfolio!!!

@TheMasacure1234 21 день назад

Fidelity truly does not believe in BTC. They use and fire their staff and take their BTC ideas as their own.

@josephscott1952 21 день назад

Bitcoin Ethereum and Litecoin are in limited SUPPLY

@marlondlee8740 21 день назад

But if fiat is losing value and been debae then ppl seeing Btc is performing better comon sense ppl will move to the best assest

@josephscott1952 21 день назад

80% drawdowns is a buy signal

@dannybitcoin116 20 дней назад

A for Effort….. he’ll get there…. They all will.

@mauroinnocenzi9420 19 дней назад

This guy is in between a normie and a bitcoiner, as he does not think of Bitcoin as the most impactful change in society. Actually, his thought are completely traditionally based

@bobd8357 21 день назад

I will buy Bitcoin and cryptos when you can explain to me the origin of Tether since 2014. Who owns it, who manages it, and who oversees it to ensure that it has in fact a 1-1 backing with USD. If you cannot answer these questions, then you cannot confirm whether the price of Bitcoin and all other cryptos have been artificially inflated in order to drive investment and interest. Perhaps, you've been tricked into an "investment" area where you own digital air instead of buying REAL assets with your hard earned fiat. 😮 #Therugpullwillbemassive

@waynerichardson1051 21 день назад

No one cares what you think bro

@davidh7799 21 день назад

The Federal Government is overspending at the rate of 1 trillion dollars every 100 days. That is wild, out of control spending, which will only lead to the crash of the dollar. Everyone acts like that is not happening,

@Rinbtnotification 21 день назад

🎉😃😃😃😃😃

@donaldoarmand212 21 день назад

No talk of Ethereum or $ETH huh?

@jksmithiii 20 дней назад

Natalie, respect to your pro investors, but they tend to make the mistake of suggesting a course given their current state or bias. Maybe this advisor/analyst has always been an institutional who didn't make his first move with a ton of risk initially (via opm - other people's money). But whether he did or not, this narrative of "make sure you diversify" that I hear so often doesn't work for retailers. We don't have the money or the time to diversify. Same even goes for any successful investor who pushes the "diversify" narrative because that's what they do current state. They all had to take on a ton of risk initially to get to the point where they could "diversify." So, two narratives that I think are borderline useless for retailers who will either build economic security, or they don't: 1) They have to take risk initially to "afford" to diversify , and 2) just an aside, except for economic reasons, gold isn't even worth discussing for us retailers. Once one gets enough of it to represent a useful store of value, somebody will take it, either by surreptitious or overt means. The more gold the retailer owns, the less of a store of value that asset becomes because of lack of trust reciprocation and property rights that historically have plagued this asset. For better or worse, BTC (not "diversifying," and not owning gold) is our only way out of this fiat doom.

@MJ-nh5dq 21 день назад

Bitcoin is lucky to have J.T. in it's corner

@josephscott1952 21 день назад

If Bitcoin has a 30% pullback? Investors in meme coins would wake up one morning seeing that they were liquidated, completely wiped out!!!😮

@bujin5455 20 дней назад

58:25. LMAO!!! It depends how capitalized your company is. If you're running so razor close to the edge, that a 70 vol asset is going to affect meeting payroll, than obviously not. But if you're a company like Apple, who has more capital than they have outlets for it, they can either hold on to it and watch it met away, or they can give it back to the shareholders. But this is them giving up their protective "fat layer." Fat is not for fast access energy, it's for the energy that allows you to survive the long winter. The fact you don't even have an opinion that looks out beyond the next pay cycle means you're missing the value prop entirely.

@TheMasacure1234 21 день назад

The guy talks up buying bonds lol

@prancer1803 19 дней назад

👍

@jonathanmusick2571 21 день назад

60% BTC 40 Alts? Sounds good.

@prancer1803 19 дней назад

What’s with all the bot comments

@josephscott1952 21 день назад

Bitcoin can SUDDENLY JUMP and the jump is by as much as $10,000 and thats when FOMO kicks in.

@josephscott1952 21 день назад

Bitcoin goes up +5% Ethereum is usually +9% Litecoin jets even higher from 21-25% typically so you can see if Bitcoin goes up Ethereum and Litecoin follow. Its a triple play holding those coins. I also find a very young crypto sister STELLAR LUMENS to change the world of finance. The potential for this coin right now could be 1000x. Chainlink would be lower at 750x Litecoin would be 250x-500x So do the math to figure out where Bitcoins price will be?

@FrankMeester46 20 дней назад

Nat you can go an have some lunch ,,these dutchmen keep ralikn

@ElumalaiSet-dr4wf 11 дней назад

Love BTC the most, but it is time to put some into presales. Cyberopolis is the next big thing.

@dereksnyders8094 18 дней назад

I'm ded 💀 this was so bearish

@Gustavo-gk2bu 21 день назад

The biggest bear ive Seen

@victordirectdemocrats 21 день назад

I think this man is too optimistic about the US, he is not taking into account the discredit of the elites, the social degeneration, the political and social polarisation, the sexual "freedom" (normalisation of abominatons) and the probability of an economic-job crisis will put the US into Weimar 2.0. That is precisely what Sam Zell says about the US, he should know, he is a billionaire Jew of Polish extraction, he remembers. The US will be saved by bringing in the Swiss political system. Just read about it and learn how real democracy that transfers power from politicians and lobbies to the ordonary people works better, much better. The rest is history, Switzerland has the best history of any country in the World for almost two centuries now. If Weimar 2.0 degenerates into dictatorship of the Right or the Left then Bitcoin would dissapear from the US, perhaps the World. Totalitarians are about central control of EVERYTHING. You will do a great service to yourself, the rest of us and bitcoin if you bring guests explaining the Swiss system and how among many other tops, the approval rating of Swisx politicians is about 80%. There is a lot more. TheSwissPoliticalSystem.

@prancer1803 19 дней назад

Don’t forget to take your meds

@TheRealDerekS 21 день назад

Bitcoin is NOT exponential. It is scale invariant. This is why Plan B's S2F model was horse$@#!

@ceerawlins3412 21 день назад

S2f isn't an exponential model....its linear

@dsflat6785 21 день назад

Will Bitcoin 'BCH' follow Bitcoin 'BTC' from $460 to $70,000 ? (given enough time and the prices BTC is expected to reach) Bitcoin Cash is up over 300% in one year, around twice as much as BTC... The BCH chart and price looks like Bitcoin in 2016

@josephscott1952 21 день назад

Bitcoin is 35 times more valuable than Gold

@PeterJames968 20 дней назад

The rich stay rich by spending like the poor and investing without hesitating then the poor stay poor by spending like the rich yet not investing like the rich

@TheRealDerekS 21 день назад

Tired of S curve exponential analysis... you are incorrect. If you dont understand the Power Law you don't understand bitcoin.