So I just made a number of parlays with the Denver Nuggets winning the championship and either the Miami Heat or Philadelphia 76ers winning the East. If the Boston Celtics gets upset, it’s going to pay big. Heat are currently 55-1 to win the East while the Sixers are 12-1. The parlays includes my Derby longshots and the payouts are anywhere from $1000-$4000 from $1 bets. I covered like 10 horses + a repeat of last year’s NBA Finals with Nuggets the champions and Heat winning the East. My longshots - Honor Marie +1600 Resilience +2000 Stronghold +2500 My top 10 + Denver/Miami 1. Sierra Leone pays $1K 2. Stronghold pays $4.6K 3. Honor Marie pays $3.7K 4. Resilience pays $3K 5. Fierceness pays $1K 6. Catching Freedom pays $1.8K 7. Just Steel pays $4.6K 8. Forever Young pays $1.6K 9. Dornoch pays $2.3K 10. Just A Touch pays $3K Endlessly and Encino are ones I decided not to wager on. I’m hoping the Derby winner is within that 10 horses I listed, but knowing my bad luck, watch it won’t be. There are some other bets involving Stronghold + which NBA team wins next out for their Game 3 or which teams wins their First Round matchup. Minimum payout is $1000. The last bet, I decided to NOT include Sierra Leone. He’s my pick but I have a feeling he comes in 3rd. It’s that Zandon/Angel of Empire feeling I’m getting from him. So on Derby Day, I’m going to put a $60 show on him. That should pay $150 if it’s $5x30. Sierra Leone is my instant cash. I really don’t understand why there’s no hype with Stronghold? Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom, and Honor Marie are coming from way out of it. Stronghold will be well placed. And did you see Honor Marie’s bullet workout? He’s looking ready to go! While Sierra Leone is my Derby horse, most of my parlays does NOT involve him because I can’t take +300 on a horse I’m not sure he gets there on time. And the pace may NOT be brutal compared to the last two. Most of my parlays are centered around Stronghold at 25-1 and Honor Marie at 16-1. Then Resilience at 20-1. Stronghold is looking like the most slept on Santa Anita Derby winner of recent times thanks to that 89 Beyer. I’ve only spent $37. I’ll spend another $60 cash on Derby Day with Sierra Leone to show. I feel cursed since Maximum Security was disqualified in 2019. I watch different ‘cappers on RU-vid picking win candidates. There’s like a few of them while horses like Stronghold should be used for the bottom. F that! It’s anybody’s race since Rich Strike won it. And Mage wasn’t exactly on a lot of people’s top 5 last year with his 94 BSF and 3 starts (0 as a 2YO). Hindsight is always 20/20. Hence, why Mage was 15-1 and not among the top 5 betting choices and this was after Forte was scratched. I’ve seen and gambled on nearly 30 Derbies and it’s never that simple. People can look like a smartass at this moment but wait when next Saturday’s race is over. Lots of torn tickets and kicking themselves for not picking or including that one particular horse. So many different ways losing this race but there’s only one way to win and that’s finishing 1st. Honor Marie is looking live, folks. Has one of the best pedigrees to win it and already owns a win at Churchill. Actually, two wins. He broke his maiden there and won a graded stakes race. Both he and Stronghold have wins at CD. That’s always a plus in a race like this.
yea i think a little different in that i will try to get a horse peaking for this race & who likes c.d. track. but the post will be my final judge along with the last work so far honor marie fits my thinking as a good tri pick.
🇧🇧For my few cents' worth- your longshots respected, why is Catalytic ignored? Of course I wish the best for Saffie and his connections🤞🏽 Your suggestions on how punters pick bets are solid but here are mine- Draw in the gates: may be +ve or -ve for a horse according to its running style as you pointed out. Trainers and Jockeys have also been covered in your suggestions👍🏼 Track conditions: will the track be normal or slop? They like different goings😂 The most enjoyable and difficult to measure is the quasi "rags to riches"/sentimental angle. Last year Saffie Joseph Jr was barred and a question mark hung over his head like the sword of Damaclese😢 Catalytic may well fly under the radar and spring an upset- unheralded horses have defied the odds and brought immeasurable joy to the overlooked connections... My other Barbadian link is Sierra Leone as the owners are associated with Sandy Lane hotel🤑(and Coolmore) But hey- what do I know (or any of us for that matter)... Will check the updates after the post position draw has taken place- P.S. you are still invited to make it here for the first Saturday in March for the Barbados Gold Cup. Jerry The Nipper was beaten by Portfolio Company 😂😂 Not as dramatic as Bribon by Sterwins...
Catalytic I think his odds will be in the mix of 10th or 11th highest and he may outrun those odds. Horses do surprise in many races. So the price will be right on catalytic. I wish he had 1 more race. But I think that about just a touch as well and maybe about 2 less for just steel. The Barbados Derby is on my radar for next year. Tentatively planning on it.
Aw, good Gawd, I am still chewing railroad ties over Mandaloun being cheated out of his Derby win ("payoff!") on the 2021 race day. (Due to Baffert's juiced up horse - and I do not fault the beautiful "Medina Spirit"). It cost me about 17,000 - I still have my tickets to prove it. Well, what can you do? Onward!
I know this much. Fierceness is NOT getting the gravy trip he got in the BC or the Fla derby. No way not in a 20 horse field having to chase track phantom with blinkers on
You got all the bases covered except the pattern of derby points and winning the Kentucky Derby. The points leader has never won in recent years. It's come from points leaders 8-10. So I'm picking dornoc and track phantom. Saez, Rosario, Asmussen, good magic, into mischief.
You tell em ..no way Just Steel is improving...wait, what ? He was running just as fast as Muth at the end of the Arkansas Derby ? No Muth in the Kentucky derby
