Know your trading edge-survive the game · Blair Hull interview 

which period of hull ma iis best to use? 20 or 50? please say

+Al Fin, thanks very much.

+CanadianRepublican, thanks dude.

the return is

@@Hugo-xj2mj the return is

…And the return is…

Farking zero!

Yes definitely all about the indicators

Well that doesn’t sound like an actual process to get an edge either. I’m a 19 year old trader and here’s my approach. We have to start by understanding that an edge is a statistical probability of one outcome happening over the other. Not on a trade by trade basis but over a large sample size of trades. The key words here are statistical and probability. A lot of the market price action is random. This doesn’t work very well with our mind as we come into the market with cognitive biases and our neons tends to see patterns where they aren’t. A lot of these patterns are random and have no statistical backing. The other problem with them is that they are often not quantifiable which makes trading them subjective and thus unreliable. What we need to do is first identify a statistical occurrence in the market over a large sample size of data. And use that as our edge. How to do this? I really like the way quants approach this. They conduct research on a pair or security to find inefficiencies and abnormal returns. If you look up SSRN. They have a bunch of research papers by academics that present hypotheses about market data based on statistical tests. They’ll ask questions like : Does the London session tend to provide abnormal returns in a certain pair if (input) happens etc etc When you dive into these papers you can infer trading ideas that put you on the right statistical side of the market. Then what we can do is create theories and backtest them. If you do this you’ll usually find some of the ideas have an edge. No subjectivity, no hoping or praying. Just pure objective research and testing.

Well that doesn’t sound like an actual full process to get an edge either only because I think you need to have a reason why you think something will work before you test it. I’m a 19 year old trader and here’s my approach. We have to start by understanding that an edge is a statistical probability of one outcome happening over the other. Not on a trade by trade basis but over a large sample size of trades. The key words here are statistical and probability. A lot of the market price action is random. This doesn’t work very well with our mind as we come into the market with cognitive biases and our neons tends to see patterns where they aren’t. A lot of these patterns are random and have no statistical backing. The other problem with them is that they are often not quantifiable which makes trading them subjective and thus unreliable. What we need to do is first identify a statistical occurrence in the market over a large sample size of data. And use that as our edge. How to do this? I really like the way quants approach this. They conduct research on a pair or security to find inefficiencies and abnormal returns. If you look up SSRN. They have a bunch of research papers by academics that present hypotheses about market data based on statistical tests. They’ll ask questions like : Does the London session tend to provide abnormal returns in a certain pair if (input) happens etc etc When you dive into these papers you can infer trading ideas that put you on the right statistical side of the market. Then what we can do is create theories and backtest them. If you do this you’ll usually find some of the ideas have an edge. No subjectivity, no hoping or praying. Just pure objective research and testing.

na dis niqqa asks the WORST questions

+wn77wn, thanks heaps for listening.

calabaza 15 you buy at 100 and sell at 100.1 or sell at 100.1 and buy back at 100 for 0.1 $ profit 1 trillion times a day

the spread

he is looking at the big picture

Totally agree Paulo

its got fukken shet performance m8

+Joey Cognata, I'd suggest tweeting the guys at Technician to ask about this: twitter.com/TechnicianApp

Joe, that was just an advertisement to pay for the show - you're not supposed to actually take the bait and buy the product lol!

+Rodolfo "Rudy" Rodarte, you might be interested in the previous episode with Dr. Yves Hilpisch too. He's a quant and the author of Python For Finance: ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-7COR3eRB8lE.html

has anyone won the lottery? yeah, but its statistically unlikely, best of luck m8

Tim Sykes, Mark Crook, Tim Gritanni, Nate Michaud, Steven Dux

+reverse moustache cat, strange way of looking at it...

It comes with experience after dealing with all the wannabees and charlatans in this business.

he didnt say anything about programming degree... just competincy. programming aint that hard...

programming isnt as hard as everyone thinks it is anyway.

infiltr80r ill grant you that. im a software dev so it seems easy for me... but for someone great at math, calculus is easy. so I might be very wrong on how easy it is.

Paul Tudor - agreed! Very disappointed with Blair Hull interview, he rubbed me the wrong way .

Are you a millionaire yet?