As a young lad I found myself on a 30-foot sailboat in the South Pacific, a thousand miles from land in any direction. The combination of the immensity of the surrounding ocean and the dome of the night sky was a profoundly humbling and breath-taking experience that I wish everyone could have. It changed me forever. Now at the age of 75, landlocked, adjacent to an ocean of cornfields, I cling to the wisdom of like-minded people who never needed an ocean or a starry night to wake them up. And I appreciate them.
Hullo from me in Australia. Years ago I stood on an immense shoreline devoid of any sign of roads or habitation. Watching the ocean as the sun set, absolutely alone and realising night was falling... terrified at the wide expanse and I had no shelter or warm clothing. I spied a person in the distance... a nice couple in a car had driven down a storm road... they accepted me into their car and transported me back towards home... I was 18, dumb young girl hitchhiking, just broke up w my dumb boyfriend, i had no idea. But I will never forget that vast ocean & shoreline nor the kindness of strangers.
What a remarkable scientist, who explained some of the complexities associated with AMOC change with remarkable clarity (sverdrup I had never heard of, 1,000,000 cubic meters of water/sec is a big number with lots of zeros, but when she said the Amazon flow at is 0.2 sverdrups - Voila, I get it). She is a remarkable human being as well, who spoke articulately, honestly, and amazingly empathically about life, and about the effects of her scientific knowledge on her own personal life decisions. I was blown away by her skill at articulating a bit of her scientific expertise, and her wisdom, in any language. Thanks Nate for letting her cover so much about the personal interface between her scientific knowledge, and the effects on her personal life decisions.
Wow! What a superlative young Scientist with tremendous insights and wisdom. Thank you Ms. Caesar. Good luck with Earth Systems work and public global policies.
Wow, What a lady, so interesting, intelligent and knowledgable with a fantastic ability to get her message across even in a non-native tongue. My best wishes for her future.
An excellent and informative presentation on the AMOC. The image of the "hill" out in the Atlantic possibly flattening and increasing sea levels on the east coast is very powerful. A complex topic clearly explained. Thank you.
A brilliant conversation. The most concise discussion I have heard on the subject. Unfortunately the future of a habitable planet doesn’t seem to be a top priority for world leaders at the moment. I am 74 years old and will be leaving children and grandchildren to try and survive in a very unstable world. I am disappointed that the response has been so poor in the decades since scientists discovered the damage we are doing to a beautiful world.
What a wonderful interview! At almost 83 I can say that this was a truly exceptional meeting of minds and hearts, delivering a powerful yet gentle message which we all so much need to hear about the state of our planet and our responsibility for it.
Absolutely amazing last 15 minutes of conversation. Really appretiate this conversation. Very wise young women, hope, more such incredibely conscious people not only in your show, but all around us. Than you 🕊🌍
At 61 I regret I have been slow to understand and pitch in re: the climate change crisis. I am trying to make changes that make my life more sustainable, including riding my bicycle more which I love to do.
@@grindupBaker CO2/ greenhouse gases are not the cause of climate change or the amoc slowing down. Its only brainwashed simpletons out there believe that .
Have known this for awhile especially with wonderful info from Paul Beckwiths research etc.. Wonderful to see you having this helpful information come forth on your very helpful RU-vid channel Nate 🕊🌊🌏😇
INSPIRING exploration of a complex area of ocean science. I am always humbled by the largely consistent response of so many guests to Nates "magic wand question", often alluding to the idea that human minds/ hearts must change for true change to happen. Consciousness is the predecessor of all change, we need a cultural revolution, a moral revolution, or one might be so bold to say a spiritual one, if we are to see REAL long form change on this planet. So grateful Levke and Nate for this conversation.
Excellent interview. Clear, detailed, thoughtful and extremely relevant. I will watch this again and look forward to a future Levka interview on interconnectedness.
What a treat this talk was. She explains complex science in a way almost anyone could understand. She’s clearly brilliant but also admirably empathetic and encouraging. Thank you for sharing this conversation.
I'll be holding out for the next conversation with Levke; focusing on the interconnectedness between all earth systems is something I would love to see discussed between you two!
Another great episode. Potsdam institute has a lot of leading thinking on our climate system and planetary system. another episode I will listen to twice with morning coffee tomorrow Thanks Nate cheers
Thank you, Nate, for asking about the risks occurring of a Canfield Ocean. Can you please also ask Yohan Roskstrom about this. Also ask him about the risks of dramatically increased methane release from methane hydrates, especially from the very shallow waters of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) See papers of Natalia Shakhova and her interview on ClimateGenn and interview of Peter Wadhams on Methane Hydrate with JustHaveAThink. Also see lecture RU-vid on methane hydrate dangers by Miriam Kastner of Scripps Institute of Oceanography at University of California at San Diego. I am concerned that a marine methane hydrate ocean release, especially from the ESAS could trigger more methane and CO2 release from Arctic permafrost, which could then increase ocean warming and deoxygenation +AMOC slowdown and slowdown of deep water with its high oxygen levels formation in Antarctica could then lead to Canfield Oceans, at least ear continental margins where they seem to have occurred in the End Permian Mass Extinction. Levke did not adequately reply to your Canfield Ocean question.. She merely observed the physics that some heat and oxygen would still diffuse downwards. But these physics were also operating for the Canfield Ocean. Now humans are pumping so much sewage, fertilizers and other organic wastes along our continental margins that I fear a Canfield ocean could rapidly occur under the right conditions of low oxygen, warm water with low capacity to store oxygen and H2S. Our main sources of atmospheric oxygen are our rain forests and ocean plankton both of which are decreasing, and plankton will decrease faster if hydrogen sulfide in the water increases- resulting in a dangerous positive feedback. To my knowledge none of the above developments and their interactions are being considered considered. Will you ask Jochan Rockstrom about the Potsdam Institute studying this?
Thank you Nate, didn’t think I would find this conversation on the AMOC system of interest, but I did, learnt a lot from Levke Caesar, what a knowledgeable person, hoping she does return in the not too distant future🤔
Brilliant! On so many levels - Look forward to her return on The Great Simplification to weave it all together from a scientific perspective. I really appreciate her advice to youth to disentangle their goals and dreams from the past (marriage, family, home, secure job) and to inquire within to tap into heartfelt passion and purpose and find more creative ways to live in these very difficult and dangerous Earth times. 🌍🙏♥🕸
this is the first interview I've watched of yours, and Nate, I need to commend you for how professional, charming and excellent of an interviewer you are. this was phenomenal. Dr. Caeser also deserves immense praise, as she's one of the best scientific communicators I've come across, and I say this as someone who is already familiar with the subject matter due to being an environmental science student myself. I can't express enough how valuable and informative this is. thank you
Nate, I want to thank you for bringing so many wonderful people to my attention and awareness. I feel better armed as an advocate by what I have learned here. If you know an engineer who works on problems of infrastructure, I would like to hear an interview on the subject of ideas for sustainably dealing with unavoidable human waste. For example, using fresh water to flush toilets is just crazy. I think we could use solar energy to compost or burn waste instead. That would be energy we would not have to store as it would be a constant and predictable path from production to use. We need to change how we live... might as well start with diapers! Okay, I'm weird, sorry. Really just wanted to say I love your podcast.
Good overview of the AMOC problem. I would have liked a little more substance on the mechanics of the vortices of the sinking water, as well as the timing aspect. I have been aware of this topic since grad school in the 1990s, when I found out that an Ice Age can come on in a short period of time - 5-50 years. We seem to be on that timeline at the present. One of the reasons we moved to France rather than Norway, when we fled Amerika six years ago, was because of the refugia in southern France, Italy and Spain during the time of the Neandertals. (Other reasons were a higher percentage of arable land, the most populous country durng the medieval period, the adaptations to the Nazis duing WWII and lower cost of living.) I see the current "cold blob" in the Atlantic as a "tipped" point, i.e. no longer a "tipping" point. I see anomalies every day in my orchard and garden and this affects my landrace research. For instance, I still have some yellow sweet corn seed from 2015 and I checked it for germination in a 24-cell flat. Only two plants came up and I will plant them together southwest style and maybe hand-pollinate them. I also may put them next to my open-pollinated Golden Jubilee SU corn and see what happens. It is still raining here in the foothills of the Pyrenees so I have not yet started my bean and corn direct seeding. Levke and Nate are both dependent on connections among the elites, but at least they are dong a good job of it. For those people who don't have as much access, my advice is the same. Grow your own food and build community. In addition, you need to devise your own solutions. My curent focus on this topic is using paradigms for adaptation. Paradigms help systematize your mental maps. Making a paradigm shift is not an easy thing to do.
The responsible thinking members of your guest's generation are exactly the ones we need to have children to be the next generation. If they don't, then the next generation will be entirely the product of those people who either do not believe in what's happening to the world, or don't care what sort of world they bring their children into. We need the people who say "I wouldn't inflict this world on my kids" to have children because it's *their* children who will work hardest and smartest to fix it.
A very good delivery. And not so complicated to understand. What is complicated to understand is the stupidity of almost all of human life today that will continue to advance our predicament. Viewers of this are probably not included in that critical mass.
Well, what IS stupid....is the thinking that we humans could actually change what is going to happen with the AMOC, however, it will make us feel better/more secure. Why NOT use our time this way?
@@klondike444 Yes true. But meanwhile we could get the temperature down by 1.5 C. Back to where it was before industrialisation. Relatively inexpensively, quite quickly, and using technology already existing that just needs slight modification (a few weeks to modify). Or we can continue as we are, past 2 C and higher, hitting many tipping points. There would be a rebound if it stopped quickly. But that is also true fr CCS if it actually worked at scale, and nobody is using that as an argument to oppose CCS.
@@lauchlanguddy1004 Do you also complain about the money wasted on useless carbon credits projects? You should do. That money would be better spent on renewable energy projects.
A fundamental flaw in the thinking of academics is this idea that knowing something is the same as caring. It is not and in the balance we don't. We take the AMOC for granted, sure - we take it all for granted. Not taking it for granted would have no impact on our behavior. What we "take into account" is functionally moot. We are all locked into a model that demands we do exactly as we are doing, in the balance. It IS incredible the things we are able to know today, but we must understand that the cost of arriving at the means to know these things has been precisely the degradation you document on this channel. It is a rob Peter a thousand bucks to pay Paul ten scenario, our model - including academic research - and we are locked-in. Objectively, it would be far better for the living planet, and ourselves by extrapolation, if there were a half million of us in total still reading chicken entrails and believing the stars were pinholes in a giant tent. This doesn't change the fact that it is profoundly fascinating to parse our inevitable and now rapidly escalating downward spiral.
Great interview, a topic I’ve understood for many years, understanding thermodynamic and how temperatures effect all life, an earths complex systems, biosphere, Amos, etc etc, earth is like a machine with a engine that is over heating, that eventually will shut down, as it has in past earth mass extinction events, in which only after balance is restored after million of years, does things restart and what life has manage to survive, does evolution begin again, earth is like a living complex organism with a internal vulcanite heating system, and magnetic core to restart earths biosphere systems, as long as earth keeps spinning as is does, creating gravity , eventually evolution will restart, as it has after the past five mass extinction events over earth 4.6 billion years….however the moon also plays an important part in stabilizing earths rotation and seasons, tides etc, which its slowly moving away from the earth, as earth gravitational field weakens it grip on our moon, which is why scientist are very interested in measuring earth’s gravitational field, in my understanding, an like your speaker, I am also very concern for the future of life on our planet, and have taken to studying an learning from various scientist over decades, anyways, nice interview, thank you, Peace !
I wonder if the rapid heating in and lack of rain around the Mediterranean and in North Africa, like Morocco is caused by the slowing of AMOC? Even the night time temperatures in summer are off the scale?
What a great science communicator. It's a sign of a true expert that she's humble about how little we actually understand. How complex the climate is. One fundamental aspect that wasn't brought up, and seldom is when interviewing climate scientists: Capitalism. There seems to be an assumption that a solution has to uphold capitalism, the very root cause of the problem, also known as the definition of stupidity. I know scientists are supposed to be politically neutral, but by making this assumption they _are_ taking a position. Scientists are inevitably working within a particular paradigm, not just scientifically but politically, largely due to funding and peer pressure. As long as solutions must operate within the current capitalistic-political model, it _will_ be business as usual (literally). The use of financial terminology (budget, quotas, etc) when talking about nature is a good sign that something's off.
Am watching this all finally now but it seems the sound is lacking in clarity so have added subtitles cc choice and have done this with your other wonder foreign speakers I live breath in our breathtaking oceans powers that be as we grew up by the sea and it has and still our ever empowering energy 🕊🌊🌏😇❤️
Beside shutting down AMOC, affecting the climate etc, as explained in this great interview, I imagine changing the salinity levels will likely cause a mass die off of salt water marine life unable to adapt…scary thought !
Yes, thank you so much to Levke ftom a near 75 yo ftom Aotearoa New Zealand. Lots of later years people (absolute terms) here who share yr views. Interested by yr closing principles in particular
Thank you for information this great. I saw many news tv, newspapers and RU-vid and you too. I learned about AMOC and ice age 100,000 every years cycle.
1:14:40 On global action/policy: “Lying on that international level…also meaning that if you draw attention away from the truth, or you hide some facts, that should be really punishable…because it’s misleading and it’s hurting so many people….We are not really getting closer to a solution right now [regarding those engaged in policy and activism]…. If there are people out there who know that their strength is to influence other people…then please use it for good….We see that delivering the facts is not enough. That’s what we’ve seen…. Apparently we need some kind of climate lobby….”
Stefan Rahmstorf has talks mentioning what Levke says at 25:30. Stefan shows a simple pictorial with the Cold Blob re-directing eastward-flowing air to the south below the Cold Blob and then off the coast of Africa like Sahara Desert it turns back northnortheast and heads up over Western Europe having picked up heat from the warmer Atlantic at lower latitudes before heading northish again. Don't forget Nate that latent heat of evaporation from very warm ocean surface is big heat, When the air rises to the condensation point the latent heat is converted into regular heat. Suppose the rain falls down on the ocean but extra-heated air continues northish to Western Europe and then descends. Pressure heats it at 9.8 degrees / kilometre. That what causes the Sahara Desert and Saudi Desert to exist.
How much CO2 is the result of unnecessary manufacturing due to planned obsolescence? Planned obsolescence means depreciation of durable consumer goods. Where is the data on that consumer depreciation? What is NDP, *Net Domestic Product?*
Really enjoyed this breakdown of the various interconnectedness of these oceanic and climate systems. Interesting to learn about the carbon "balance" between air/ocean, as well as putting some more realistic timeframes on dramatic AMOC changes - there's a lot of disaster porn about the conveyor belt shutting down on a single-digit-year timescale / salt-dumping etc that is interesting but also unrealistic. Hardly means it's something to ignore, but helps me prioritize my own mental model. Thanks Levke!
If I had a magic wand.......... I would make it impossible for any politician to lie, deflect, obfuscate or deny anything regarding what our future is going to be like.
Amazing topic and great content and interaction. One thing, sound is like a landline phone conversation. What is the point of wearing a headset? Small detail but should be checked in the future. I can't help imagining how outstanding that podcast would have been with a sound based on 2024 technology :-)
@@gander52-rc6vv read subtitles in that case. I am just refering to the over all tendency that says we are done. So why listen to it in hifidelity while all you have to do is use your brain to find a solution that works for you. Are we actually getting what this blabla is all about or is this all just entertainment?
The ocean big circulation is very simple in strategy. The SMOC dense water pumps around Antarctica push to the sea bed and force north up 3 oceans, pushing other water out of the way. It can't any further than the land to the north so this AABW dense water at 0.0 degrees literally lifts all 5,800 m depth of water above it just like a wedge or crowbar. It lifts 35% of global ocean area in those cul de sacs that it pushed into by 5 m (17 feet) per year and this causes the "permanent thermocline" to exist. This amounts to the global ocean being lifted 1.8 m (6 feet) each year by the SMOC. The "permanent thermocline" is 650 m thick so every 650/1.8=~360 years the permanent thermocline 6-27 degree water is replaced-refreshed by the 5.0 degree water bewing lifted up from below. The warm surface water flows off the bumps back to Antarctica, North Atlantic, Greenland Sea where there are dents in the ocean caused by the dense pressure pumps forcing down. The 5.0 degree water is lifted and simultaneously warmed by the 6-27 degree water above by mixing and heat conduction. If this slows down then the 6-27 degree thermocline water will steadily deepen from its persent 650 m thick. The lifting takes 2,200 to 3,300 years to do a full mixing cycle but only 1,000 years to do an overturning cycle, the reason for the difference is that water not in the 35% of global ocean that gets forced up by AABW wedging it at the sea bed mixes by ~horizontal currents and smaller overturnings like at coasts (so it isn't that 35% of global ocean mixes and 65% has sat stagnant for millions of years because there's mesoscale little mixings all over the place). Earth is getting some surface warming relief from 2,200 to 3,300 years worth of bitter cold water at 0.0 to 5.0 degrees that sank around Antarctica over the last 2,200 to 3,300 years. It's "heritage coldness" that's available. The AMOC from Greenland is the same deal except it only does the full North Atlantic, shallower bit of South Atlantic to the tip of Africa (Antarctica SMOC AABW pushes under it and shoves it up from its 2,000 - 3,000 m to maybe 500 m or suchlike) and 1/3rd of AMOC deviates under Africa and couples with Antarctica SMOC to push north into the cul de sac of Arabia & India, ends around west of tip of India.
Thanks to Nate and Levke for the excellent breakdown of AMOC syndrome and its connection to climate change. However, the most critical part of the discussion for me was the exploration of human nature, particularly the principle that knowledge alone doesn't change behavior (1:04:49-1:10:00). This, I believe, lies at the root of our predicament. Perhaps, instead of accumulating more scientific data to paint a picture of disaster, a more effective approach might be to study evidence-based interventions for changing behavior. Motivational interviewing, for instance, comes to mind. Rationally presenting information with the good intention of saving the planet can often backfire. It's a classic example of the well-meaning but ultimately misguided "righting reflex." If the goal is to truly catalyze change, mastering skills like motivational interviewing, which focus on understanding and influencing human behavior, would likely be a far more effective use of your time. Miller, W. R., & Rollnick, S. (2023). Motivational interviewing: Helping people change and grow (4th ed.). Guilford Publications.
Excellent overview of the topic, as the host says it is deeply impressive given this is not the lady's first language. One small point when I was a seafarer we used to send weather observations (including sea and air temperatures, wave height, cloud cover, barometric pressure etc.) every six hours. I don't know how many ships did this (all those in my company did but that company no longer exists). They were sent to the UK met office by radio and that must have given regular readings along all the major sea lanes around the world (and occasionally in some of the more remote areas) at six hour intervals for many years (certainly from the 1960s through to the 1990s). I can sympathise with the 'silo' problem, it is not confined to climate science. One option would be to put someone dealing with (for example) horticulture in charge of a team of diverse experts, that would give them a single focus and would facilitate the interchange of information between the various specialists. In the longer term AI may help, it gets the insecurities of petulant Great Leaders out of the loop, those who harness it well will thrive, those who do not will fall behind (harnessing it well isn't going to be easy). Regarding offspring the range of known hormone disruptors is worrying, male fertility has been falling at about 1% per year (globally since the 1970s), the current guidelines weigh the economic advantages against the human impact (I believe the US still allows the use of Roundup weedkiller, which seems to cause the testosterone to be transmuted into oestrogen, feminising males and also reducing sexual pleasure for females). So as well as the disruption due to climate we are facing a demographic crisis and an element of frustration tat is likely to cause additional stress. The psychology that underpins our inability to handle problems at scale is being actively researched but again it is complex and often counter-intuitive (Seligman et al on happiness and fulfilment, Zhang's work on 'greed' etc.). The nearest to a conclusion (as I understand it) it that we are in a whole heap of trouble.
I had the same issue in the engineering consulting part of my life as at 1:15:18 to 1:15:38. I was told by management a few times over 20 years to be more circumspect & devious, hold back and not speak my mind in the meetings (negotiations, arguments really) with Property Owner/Managers & Contractor Regional Managers. They were right of course. The scientific (oil exploration) and technical (engineering) computer programming career for 30 years before that didn't have the issue because I just worked to get things mathematically, scientifically & enineering technically error-free with the mathematicians, geophysicists, astronomer, electrical etc. P.Eng's I was producing computer programs for. The engineering consulting basically just pricing to get the deal & arguments about contracts and cutting price deals I disliked a lot but you have to go where the good income is to save for retirement without poverty.
Also, large releases of methane from methane hydrate from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf ESAS, as described in the papers of Natalia Shakhova et al. might further warm the Oceans enough to trigger release of methane from methane hydrates, especially along the world's continental margins. This even further warming could add to the processes in my prior comment, and so increase further the risks of a Canfield Ocean and an End Permian like mass extinction of most life on Earth.
Thank you so much. It appears that the more we are informed about the overall climate system, the more dire our short, medium and long term affects upon it appear as well as those feedbacks to us. It seems impossible that humans are turning this ship around given the inertia of our our creative flows that give us more and more. If it were possible to go back say 200 years in a time machine and alter technological progress and limit population growth and basic standards of living, we might have stood a chance. No going back in time (or forward in a non harmful manner) as much as the techno-optimists might envision. Karma is a bitch.
Would it? There would be less warmth delivered to the Arctic, it would be colder. We already see this dynamic, on global heat maps, the only area getting colder is South of Greenland.
There will be changes for sure. There are other aspects that might be at work. I always think there is gonna be a trigger effect at some point that will make things unbearable. France is already experiencing the fastest rise of temperature.
I would love hearing about how things are interconnected from a scientific point of view, and not a spiritual one... that is exactly what is missing it seems to me.
1hr14..."we know that a more plant based diet is better for our health". I think climate change activists would gain so much more ground if they dropped this line from their rhetoric. More plant based diets for 8 billion people means maintaining industrial agriculture with all it's seeds and chemicals. A pasture based ag system allows us to use animals to up the nitrogen cycle, gives us nice supple soil that is easy to plough, and thus we can do cereals and beans and an organic plant based diet. We need to be raising animals as a means to growing crops, instead of growing crops as a means to raising animals. The rhetoric needs to change to "getting rid of industrial agriculture" instead of "moving towards a plant based diet". You'll get the right wingers onside if you stop telling them that they have to stop eating meat. They all oppose big ag and seed oil products and Monsanto etc...
Agree. This was a great discussion otherwise. 'Plant-based' agriculture basically locks us into the fossil-fuel-based industrial agricultural system. Without the animal part of the cycle you need constant inputs from artificial fertilisers to supply the nutrients needed for crop growth. And because artificial fertilisers lack essential trace nutrients, your crops are more susceptible to pests and diseases so need petrochemical pesticides to stay alive. It's a red-queen ecological dead end, applying ever more petrochemicals,, degrading the land more and more to try to maintain yields. There's a reason why no pre-industrial human societies were solely plant based. The problem is not animals - it's industrial agriculture - you're so right that the rhetoric needs to change. We need regenerative agriculture for sustainability and to draw down atmospheric carbon through soil formation, and that needs animals - ruminants specifically. Plus, plant-based diets are not sustainable from a human point of view either. The 'science' claiming these diets are more healthy is extremely shaky. Most people who try a vegan or vegetarian diet will quit within 3 years. As plant-based diets have become more popular, there's a growing community of us ex-vegans and vegetarians coming out the other side who have experienced major health issues from eating this way.
If you raise one cow unit on an acre of grass, you get 600 pounds of meat at 1000 kilocalories per pound = 600,000 kilocalories. If you grow wheat you get 2-4 million kilocalories per acre. If you grow potatoes you get 6-8 million kilocalories per acre. Your average home garden produces the equivalent of 2.5 million kilocalories per acre. She is right and you are wrong.
@@wvhaugen but to grow the wheat and the potatoes you need fertility. What I am proposing is to use animals and grazing to be able to grow vegetable and cereal crops. We can't just go plant based. It doesn't work without externally produced nitrogen. There will be alot less meat eaten,(compared to today's levels it will be orders of magnitude less) but the animals fulfill a sound ecological function.
Where Levke says the denser water sinks like all oceanographers do I find that very misleading. What really happens is that the entire column of water down to the deepest depth that doesn't have its pressure balanced drops down just a like a pile driver that's always on its down stroke. The higher pressure at depths pushes the water ~south because Atlantic is closed by land to the north. Newton Acceleration = Force-anomaly/Mass. It's made a Force anomaly all the way down to the sea bed so the water MUST move, it's the Law. The entire column must drop else there'd be a vacuum hole in the ocean because the water left, and that's just stupid, that ain't going to happen. So the column drops and this makes a dent in the surface, water runs in from around to fill the dent, that cools and makes a dent, water runs in, column gets heaver again, shoves water south, the column drops, and on and on endlessly as long as it's able to get more pressure at some range of depths than the pressure to the south. Pretty simple. Salinity increases if there's evaporation, that's fine, that's obvious, but the other thing not mentioned is Greenland Sea where ice increases salinity. The ice has to be in little pieces like pancakes or whatever because a continuous sheet of surface ice isn't going to help with that circulation, it won't alter the overall weight of the column so the deep water won't be pushed away. Ice pancakes get pushed out of the circle 40 km across centred 75.00N, 0.00EW (due North of Greenwich London) by the strong wind. When the ~fresh ice pancake is blown away its dent is filled by salty water so the column gets heavier. This just goes on & on so long as it's cold enough to make ice pancakes and windy enough to blow them out of the circle. It trivially obvious, I thought about it for 2 hours in 2018 and found it obvious, Very Basic Physics.
desalinate the Atlantic and then pump the brine back into it is my suggestion. Can I get a huge fee and be a wealthy Baron like Nate here for my brainwave that saves Life on Earth ? I should get a few bucks anyway (I'm only in Life for the money and I'm only here for the beer).
WRT having children or not: I'm obese and trying to learn how I can loose weight. Should I quit eating??? Not having children is not an option. We need to reduce our birth rate but not eliminate it. But how do we do that? Tragedy of the commons says while some people will not have children, others will have ways more children than they should. Currently, legal access to abortion is the only way we can reduce the birth rate without austere and unfair regulations.
This is an absurd analogy. If I feel satiated after a healthy meal and maintain a healthy weight should I go out and stuff my face because "the tragedy of the commons" says that if I leave some pie on the table someone else might take more than the share I took?
Three questions for the guest. 1) how much of the historic North Atlantic cooling anomaly acne be attributed to historically high shipping related sulfatevaerosol emissions over that region. 2) How do we quantitatively reconcile results from of the recent 2024 van Westen paper suggeating over an order of magnitude high freshwater injection rate compared to tye current melt rate of Greenland and Arctic sea ice for inducing the level of observed amoc slow down. 3) could aerosol cooling over Northern Atlantic be a driver of the observed slowdown due to reduced net evaporation and a consequent salinity depression (density reduction) over that region that feeds the sinking current.
You see that AMOC is presently ~17.0 Sv at 11:09. You see that 5.2 Sv of that is manufactured by deep convective chimneys in the Greenland Sea between Iceland and latitude 75N (look at the bathymetry, the small deep pool to ~2,500 m off the continental shelves is obvious) at ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-eV-g4_2Xwn8.html at 12:24. This residual 30% portion not shown in the animated pictorial at 6:49 is unaffected by the Cold Blob. That flows out of the Greenland Sea through 3 valleys in the Greenland-Scotland ridge that are ~1,000 m deep as shown at my link and joins the "World's Greatest Waterfall" overturning just south of the Greenland-Scotland ridge shown at 6:49 in this video. Since there also some overturning in the Labrador Sea I don't know how much of the remaining 17.0-5.2 = ~12 Sv is that "World's Greatest Waterfall" shown in this video that is affected by the Cold Blob. I've asssumed in the scientist talk at my link that the "2.0 Sv Polar Outflow" is shallow water not part of AMOC, perhaps it's that "Subpolar Gyre", I recall Gerard McCarthy says it just loops around in the Labrador Sea and doesn't overturn.
À great interview. I hope there will be more like it. I do wish there was more information on what these climate models predict for Canada. Talks like this 1:23:10 is o usually focus on the U.S., Europe and China and rarely mention my country even though we have the second largest landmass in the world. I'm also glad to see the younger generation questioning the status quo ovsr whether to have children or to buy a house. I'm a baby boomer and, although these topics were important to some of us, the vast majority frowned on those of us bringing them up. Gratefully, I didn't give a damn about what society thought so followed my own path. I didn't have children, have lived most of my life in an apartment and have no regrets.
I'm going to complain about the Junk Thermodynamics Public Outreach of oceanographers which Levke gives at 27:04 to 27:15 here. It's the standard dumbing-down for the public that oceanographers do, a totally-nonsensical meme that's so obviously incorrect that a person would need to have no physics education and minimal brain function not to instantly recognize it as nonsense. I heard Heidi Cullen say that same rubbish (to politicians I think) about the "pause" or "hiatus" and that annoyed me. The "pause" or "hiatus" was NOT "More heat going into the ocean instead" but was "More coldness coming OUT OF the ocean". The oceanographers for decades insist on saying the thermodynamics arse backwards in the most appropriate crude way because the digestive system is the perfect analogy. If you push something in then something comes out because space is limited. If you push more water into the deep ocean then more water must COME OUT OF the deep ocean. It is NOT the pushing of heat into the ocean "instead of using it to warm the surface" that cools the surface but rather it is the pushing of WATER VOLUME (not heat) into the ocean that cools the surface by forcing colder deeper water out of the ocean to the surface. This is so patently obvious that it's annoyed me for 11 years that oceanographers like Levke here, Heidi Cullen 10 years ago and all of them in talks always say this nonsense rubbish anti-physics meme. They should stop doing that thermodynamic rubbish and get some accurate phrasing to say. Sheeesh. The air and land have ~no thermal capacity so if the heat is going into ocean instead of heating air then its preventing Earth's air from heating to 200 degrees or 300 degrees or something, it ABSURD rubbish. The surface-air temperature is actually set on multi-decadal to a few centuries time scales by these 3 simple things: - Power of "sunlight" absorbed - Power of Earth's radiation to space - Power of water colder than 15 degrees rising to surface And nowhere in those is "getting heat from the atmosphere, extracting that and getting it into the deeper ocean so in a way it's also important for cooling the atmosphere" so stop that rubbish you oceanographers, review your school physics notes. On ultra-short time scales such as 18 months the surface-air temperature is geatly adjusted upwards by an El Nino but that's blips that soon go back to where they were. I think perhaps those "ocean heatwaves" probably do that also, but again sporadic and short lived. I'm considering the surface-air to include 90 m top layer of ocean because "sunlight" mostly gets absorbed into the ocean film of several metres and then quickly exits to warm air so my "Power of water colder than 15 degrees rising to surface" is actually "Power of water colder than 15 degrees rising to ~90 m or less below surface". The "ocean" for these circulation topics is the ocean below 90 m (97.5% of it).
She did not really emphasize the thermohaline circulation. Denser saline water is a driving factor. A decrease in salinity is happening in a warming artic, This inundation of fresh water inflows with lack of sinking dense saltier water from the lessor amount of seasonal ice formation at the northern polar regions.
Yes but your "seasonal ice formation at the northern polar regions" can be much more accurately "seasonal ice formation in the Greenland Sea between Iceland and Svalbard because it's only in that small deep pool that pressure pumps down below 300 m can form and go south. At 1.2 million km**2 it's 7% of the Arctic Ocean where they form.
Your guest taught me to be more tolerant of those around me who are determined to undermine any changes to get us to s lower carbon lifestyle. I'm done with educating the willfully closed minds.
i am involved in PE and similarly am like, ok, why the F is no one even considering climate change impacts when we have a long duration? and trying to move discussions around it
