Likelihood Ratios and The Probability of Diagnosis 

This teaching video was an intervention in a trial testing ways to improve the way medical students think about medical diagnosis. The video introduces the idea of Bayesian reasoning and the concepts of base rates, sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios, and it explains how each can be used to calibrate subjective pre-test probability estimates and estimate post-test probabilities. Click ja.ma/38RKFu2 for full details of the trial and its results.
How Do We Make a Diagnosis? (00:25)
Abductive Reasoning (01:28)
Probability (03:18)
Defining an Abnormal Test (04:27)
Likelihood Ratios (07:17)
Anchoring and Adjusting Heuristic (12:26)
Likelihood Ratios for Common Tests (13:23)

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