Excellent analysis of the accident. Just subscribed to your channel. I am a A320 Captain working contracts overseas. Only advice in looking at accidents overseas is to look at aviation accident reports with a grain of salt. Politics, corruption and incompetence can lead to inaccurate reports. Especially in third world countries.
Your my favorite channel on RU-vid, the simple yet directly informative type recreation videos are awesome. Keep doing what your doing the views will come.
I haven’t seen a comprehensive statement by the F-16 pilots, only the media saying they reported the pilot slumped over. Plus, not every decompression will result in frosted windows. But I agree that a medical issue might very well be the cause.
Been missing your videos lately, appreciate you taking time to cover this event, both incidents are quite intriguing. Looking forward to your upcoming content.
I’m just a regular Joe who happens to be interested in aircraft accident investigations because of having some wherewithal to understand them as I got my pilots licence about 35 years ago albeit I only chalked up about 100 hours before I quit. But even a little flying like this can give a person the bare bones of knowing some of the pitfalls of aviation. Of course I’ll never fly again as a pilot, nor do I want to. Apart from my age of 77, I do recognise that actually I lacked the skills to be a good pilot. I was just one of those guys. You must be very intelligent or have good savvy that relates to all aspects aviation. But it’s nice to know what’s going on and I find these videos by this particular gentleman to be very insightful. It’s funny isn’t it how no one seems to realise that the possible cause or probable cause of the loss of Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 was most likely depressurisation. Sir we sincerely hope you do keep up this excellent work with everything else you undoubtedly have going on in your life. It very helpful to the geniuses of aviation but also to guys like me. It’s outstanding. Thank you.
Malaysia flight deviation was deliberate action... Just look at the flight path with multiple turns and turning off of the transponder. It could be deliberate depressurization though after plane was deep over the ocean. Also the plane didn't drop and crash from 30000 ft..it most probably glided down over the water and then sunk.
2:17 "Paying passengers may not fully comprehend the risks of less restrictive rules". Indeed; and I wonder to what extent the Titan submersible passengers could comprehend the risks associated with the journey that they took? Their youngest member at least seemed to have some idea...
It’s a possibility, but it would be a singularly unique set of circumstances. There would have been some sort of violent struggle up front followed by several hours of cruise for a suicide over the Indian Ocean. Hypoxia, to me, is a less complex.
@@flyingformoney777 I always had a problem with the hypothesis of pilot suicide, because other cases of pilot suicide resulted in an immediate crash, not a slow, drawn-out running out of fuel. What I can't explain away, however, is the fact that the captain created an almost identical flight path in Flight Simulator before the crash.
@@LordSandwichII I thought they discovered the gear was down upon impact with the water ensuring the plane would break up. I also thought they found the route the plane took on the pilots computer in flight simulater. Is that not correct?
@@morbode We can't determine with any reasonable accuracy whether or not the gear was down, because there hasn't been enough wreckage yet. Also, I don't know if you misinterpreted my comment in the second sentence, but the flight simulator thing was what makes be think it *could* have been a murder-suicide, because I can't think of any other way to explain it away aside from being an astonishingly unlikely coincidence.
@@LordSandwichII I remember the media talking about the flight sim stuff when it happened. I’m slogging through all the official documents so hopefully I can verify the exact details there.
So what does this have to do with turning your transponder off?? The only reason for turning the transponder off is if you don’t want to be tracked by authorities.
Turning the transponder off doesn’t make the aircraft stealthy to radar. There is some mystery here, but they overflew Malaysia again (and into radar tracking range). I wouldn’t read too much into it. I will discuss it when I get around to doing my video on it.
The depressurization theory doesn't hold water for the simple fact that the F-16 chase pilots could CLEARLY see the PIC slumped over in the seat. A depressurization event at that altitude would certainly have frosted/frozen over the windows as it did in the Payne Stewart crash where lack of pressurization WAS the cause. The 180 turn had been programmed into the autopilot and it put them on a heading straight to their intended destination...which they overflew. Without further pilot input the aircraft flew the last heading until it ran out of fuel at least in one engine enough to begin the spiraling turn into the ground. This looks like the pilot had a medical condition like a heart attack...which seem to be on the rise since the 'jab' was mandated to pilots to remain flying. Of course I'm sure there's going to be lots of pressure on the authorities to declare this a mechanical issue because we dare not question the 'jab' and possible side effects. Comparing this accident to M180 doesn't hold water either because of the careful route it took to avoid several countries radar coverage and the fact that this very route was found on the PIC's home flight simulator. He very likely DID depressurize the aircraft to incapacitate the passengers after locking the co-pilot out of the cockpit.
The “jab” thing is a wee bit conspiratorial. Take it, don’t take it, I don’t care. But no evidence of any long term adverse health effects. And MH370 turned and overflew Malaysia and was tracked by military radar, so there was no “careful avoidance of radar.” Like I said, the sonic boom crash may well be a medical event, but there seems to be a big misunderstanding about depressurization ALWAYS causing condensation/glazed windows. It simply doesn’t. You need a particular event (controlled and rapid depressurization) combined with specific environmental conditions (a minimal amount of humidity) for cloud formation to occur in a cabin.
@@flyingformoney777 MH370 was tracked by several countries radar...but had flown right along the borders leading each side to believe that the other must be working it. So the route flown WAS intended to deceive or not raise attention as was the route on his home simulator. The Payne Stewart crash is an example of failure to pressurize and when the F-16's got to it at around 40,000 ft none of the windows were clear enough to see anything behind...iced up. You need heat to keep the windows clear and pressurization to have heat. And you better check on your 'sudden death' stats..they're WAY up since the 'jab' but cows will fly before anyone takes responsibility for the vaccines.
The Cessna crash may be hypoxia related one thing going for that theory is the lack of movement from any of the passengers if they were aware the pilot was passed out I would think they would be looking out the window at least .Obviously none of the passengers would even have a clue how to operate the radios let alone have a chance at flying at fast jet . However it is possible they were just in the back relaxing unaware at what is going on I do believe in that model of jet there is a door that can be shut between the cabin and the cockpit so possibly they were just enjoying the ride the auto pilot was doing a good job . The other thing is the F16 pilots never mentioned anything like a blown out window or indication of decompression of the plane . So if it was a slow decompression in other words the plane never did pressurize the pilot should have started having problems around 15,000 feet and yet he was in communication with the ATC up until 21,000 feet ? So he could have had a medical event and frankly speaking just looking at the numbers it isn’t uncommon for people to just drop dead . The pilot was I believe in his late 60s and looked to be over weight a prime candidate for a coronary. Over the last 2 years there has been a dramatic increase in the west for unknown reasons of people dying suddenly. Excess deaths in some countries are up over 20% and many of these people are not old and there is no known reason. So obviously having such a high performance complex jet being flown by one person is like rolling the dice if they pass out most likely the passengers are dead unless any of them have basic flying experience. In this case the daughter may not have known anything about flying a plane and same goes for the nanny . As for MH 370 I think it is pretty clear the captain has some issues and most likely crashed the plane on purpose. I don’t know much about 777 aircraft but I think the captain waited for the copilot to go to the washroom and then put on a oxygen mask and depressurized the plane . Not being a 777 pilot is that possible to do that ? I don’t know but somehow he would have had to knock out everyone on the plane for him to continue for hour’s flying the plane . Is it possible for him to depressurize the plane as well as shut of the oxygen to the passengers in the back ? These are questions I would like answered to figure out the puzzle. Another question is there any record of the primary radar returns ? When it happened I read somewhere that when the plane did the 180 it did a steep climb and the plane appeared to be hand flown not by the autopilot.40 minutes after doing the 180 it was overhead Penang and turned south so it does appear someone was conscious and manipulating the controls long after it lost contact with ATC . So MH 370 pretty much was a deliberate act and most likely by the captain as he had even done such flights on his very complex flight simulator at home . Would be good if they found the wreckage to bring closure for the families but even then we may never know the whole story
Pressurization dump switches are common, but they produce a controlled rate of depressurization. It’d take a few minutes to dump a cabin to 30-plus thousand feet. Cabin O2 masks are required to automatically deploy above a certain cabin altitude (usually somewhere around 14,000’). There are several “walk-around” oxygen bottles in the back as well. There would have been a hell of a fight to open the cockpit door…
Pilots will continue to have medical events and planes will continue to have malfunctioning pressurization problems. But the mystery that should be looked into and investigated is why it took so long for the US Air Force to intercept this private jet ? ATC lost total contact with the jet 20 minutes after takeoff when it told the pilot to fly at 33,000 feet . The plane continued at 34,000 feet and yet was only intercepted 2 hours later just before it ran out of gas ? Looking at the flight path it is clear it had flown over Washington before the F16 fighters even took off so obviously if it was a terrorist attack it would be successful Is it not standard practice to to send up fighters when jets are flying at wrong altitudes and not responding to ATC ? The USA spends billions on air defence you would think they would be primed and ready to go but obviously not . Looks like they learned nothing from 911.
Looking at the Cessna track on a map, could it be coincidence that the runway that the last waypoints set them up on approach to happens to point roughly at their departure field and the start of the spiral? A 180 after the last waypoint would've set them heading for Nova Scotia.
All things being equal, the simpler explanation is the true one. However, the maneuvers MH370 made after last radio contact with Malaysian air traffic control were too precise to be the result of disorientation due to hypoxia. The plane rode the border in just the best way to keep either nation from sending up an air policing flight to intercept it, each side watching it move in and out of its airspace. Moreover, MH370's captain had the oxygen tank for the flight deck topped off to its max capacity just before the fatal flight. That would have provided him with 7 hours of oxygen, if he shared it with the co-pilot. If he had sent the co-pilot into the back and locked the door after him, he would have had more that 14hrs of oxygen. He only really needed an hour of oxygen to make sure everyone else had suffocated. After that, he could have restored pressurisation of the craft and breathed normally, even without his mask. Have you seen Greendot aviation's video on MH370?
Your assessment of MH370 is probably spot on. The mystery of the navigation is not that mysterious. In my 20+ years experience as a simulator instructor, when we train Rapid depressurization, most pilots interacting with the Mode Control Panel initiate an immediate descent and a turn off route to avoid other traffic on the airway. This is done by two or three quick turns on the MCP Altitude and Heading knobs, resulting in an initial change of about 10,000 feet and a turn of about 120 degrees. The loss of the Transponder, could be attributed to the hypoxia, as we train to change the mode to 7700 and that may have taken place while under the influence of hypoxia. Then as you said, a straight line until they ran out of fuel.
The MH370 flight path would seem to have to be highly coincidental if it was due to hypoxia, in part as it wasn't a straight flight path after the turn back across Malaysia. Shortly after the transponder was turned off, which itself was shortly after the last radio contact, and as leaving Malaysian airspace, it went back across Malaysia not just in a very different direction to the airport(let alone the nearest suitable airport, Sultan Abdul Halim Airport) but precisely to Penang island(where the pilot had lived), where it turned *again.* I suppose it's theoretically possible that they entered the wrong waypoints while *both pilots* were affected, but it seems very unlikely, and would seem strange to initially follow waypoints but then carry on out to sea, or otherwise seemingly avoiding all radar from then on. As the satellite data link signal repeated until the time that the fuel would've run out, it can't have crashed earlier. If it had continued on the last known path without turning again, it seems it would've passed over India, which would seem unlikely in a densely populated country without ever being picked up on radar. It possibly would've also crossed the India-Pakistan-Afghanistan (or other)borders, which you wouldn't expect to go unnoticed, it would also seem most likely to crash on land. The last known turn/path was seen on military primary radar, until it was out of range. The ACARS system was also turned off somewhere around the time that the transponder was turned off. ACARS sent half hourly transmissions so it's not precisely known when it was turned off. That alone would be extremely odd & extraordinarily coincidental with also turning off the transponder "accidentally", and seemingly disabling ACARS couldn't be confused with trying to do something else.
Why aren’t auto pilot program to detect the loss of cabin pressure and take the airplane down to 15,000 feet or so something above most terrain but low enough to restart the brain of an incapacitated pilot?
"A sonic boom over Washington, D.C., just solved the mystery of Malaysia Air Flight 370 and nobody's talking about it." Come on, man. You're better than this. No one's talking about it because the crash in Virginia -- let alone a totally irrelevant sonic boom by two F-16s -- did NOT "solve the mystery of MH 370" in any way, shape or form. And as an intelligent pilot, researcher and writer, you absolutely know this. So why on earth are you doling out this click-bait conspiracy-laced nonsense to your viewers? All that said, love your channel.
How do you get attention in a loud room? Not by whispering. And this particular crash has enough similarities that it isn’t conspiratorial at all to use it as an illustration. Definitely a bit of hyperbole at the top, but that’s how the RU-vid genre is. I appreciate your point though. You may be right. I’ll try not to overdo it. Thanks for watching.
Medical is a possibility, but so is hypoxia. I haven’t seen a statement from the F-16 pilots indicating that the windows were not frosted, and even if they weren’t that doesn’t mean it wasn’t depressurization. Windows fog only under certain types of depressurization in combination with specific atmospheric conditions.
@@flyingformoney777 If the windows were frosted the F16 pilots would have reported that since they would be looking for it. It would be difficult to impossible to see the pilot slumped over if the windows were frosted over. The conditions that would cause windows to fog would be high altitudes where the temps are far below zero. Right where that aircraft was. FL340 -65°F/-54°C Maybe the plane depressurized with little to no fog on the window, but that is highly unlikely at high altitude.
@@bravomike09 Full F-16 witness reports have not been released. And for frost you need condensation, which is based on moisture content. Just like contrails, condensation does not happen in dry air. You also need a very specific type of depressurization event (rapid but controlled). I’m leaning towards medical, but not by a bunch. Depressurization explains a lot also.
@@flyingformoney777 F16 reports were made which is where the "Slumped over" report came from. And that also implies no frost since the F16 pilots reported they can see the pilot. Condensation that rapidly forms on windows for high altitude depressurization occurs from less than 15% humidity. Most all air cycle machine systems have water separators that remove up to 85% of moisture. I'm not sure what kind of air conditioning system this Citation has, but none of them remove all moisture as that is not desirable. Also, heated windows may play a part in reducing or eliminating condensation fog if the plane depressurizes. I've been flying transport category aircraft for 43 years and most of those have NESA window heat. Even those windows can fog up if there is some sudden humidity like flying into a dense cloud. And that is with normal pressurization. So I lean towards medical and I would also agree with Dan Gryder on the cause. My airline tried to force all of us to take the jab, most pilots did not resist. I did. Under threat of being fired. They relented, but I did not. I'm one of the 20% of pilots at my airline who refused and am now 100% protected against jab side effects. Several flight crew I knew or flew with died suddenly after that. One pilot I was supposed to fly with called in sick on a sequence last July. He was dead a few months later. Great guy to fly with. Three flight attendants who were young and healthy that I knew and flew with are gone within a 6 month period. One was with Fronteir and was a resident in a crash pad I run in Chicago ORD. He was diagnosed last June and dead one month later. Age 29. The pilot shortage due to retirements has been exasperated from this as well. And that affects all age groups The worse part is no one will talk about it and so the problem will continue to get worse. Estimates are that the toll from these jabs will take around five years to hit it's maximum numbers. The FAA ignored it accept for the change they made in annual EKG standards because too many jabbed pilots were failing the FAA EKG. So the FAA just relaxed it's standard. This will continue. And when it affects a pilot during a single pilot operation, this scenario will just repeat itself.
@@bravomike09 air is dry up high. Less than 15% humidity wouldn’t be hyper rare. I got to tell you, if the vaccine was killing people, there are a hundred lawyers who’d be lining up to sue Pfizer et al. Get the jab or don’t, it’s your choice. But I’d lay extremely high odds against it having ANYTHING to do with this crash. Age and cholesterol sure, very well may be.
If it were hypoxia secondary to cabin depressurization at said altitude, wouldn’t the flight deck/fuselage windows be iced or fogged over and noted by the F-16 pilots? If so, it seems like this could be a way to rule out cabin depressurization and entertain the likelihood of a medical incapacitation. I am a student pilot trying to learn so apologies in advance if ignorance has proven paramount. Lastly, I’m happy to hear you will be creating more content as you seem to be an adept aviator and I love the education you provide. Thank you, Mark
Yes, rapid depressurization would do that, but I haven’t seen a full account of what the F-16 pilots reported, only that the pilot appeared unconscious. The windscreen is heated, so they would have been able to see the pilot slumped over either way. No evidence of passenger activity lends to the hypoxia theory, but it very well might be medical. We may never know, as the crash was so forceful that an extensive autopsy will probably not be possible. Thanks for watching!
I thought MH370 turned around and headed to the NEAREST airfield, not the departure field. I would like to know what failure of all AC bussus (777 Electrical panel BURN UP) would have had on MH370 pressurization?
It did neither, it had already flown over Sultan Abdul Halim Airport on the normal part of its flight, it was far closer than both Kuala Kumpur or Penang and was perfectly suitable for a 777. Instead it headed for the Captains home of Penang Island(one of the favourite places I've visited), where it turned *again* despite never responding to numerous attempts to contact them(other than possible mumbling & static on the first radio call from another plane) etc prior to that turn....
The 560 did close to a 180. It looks like the GPS turned the plane around to land but when no other input was entered it continued on its last entered heading until it ran out of fuel.
Hey, just found your channel. I don't use social networking or youtube much but these videos you are making are great. As a sim pilot of of over 30 years who hopes to someday transition to an actual pilot, I find these incredibly informative. Information is knowledge. This may sound like an odd compliment, but your communication skills are fantastic. I know it's subjective, but there is a lot that goes into communication and whether its effective or not; some things we can help others are just biology (voice tone, for example). Anyway it usually ends with it's a gift that people have or they don't, and you clearly do. When you have time, please keep these videos up, they are appreciated. Thank you!
How does this reconcile that the transponder was physically turned off? The pilot practicing. this route (to nowhere - but middle of indian ocean) at home?
A very good look at the MAS 370 flight. Personal to me as my wife is cabin crew for them. The captain of that flight was very well respected within MAS. He lived and breathed aviation. Lot's of nonsense have been printed about him, mainly due to his hostility to the then corrupt prime minister who is now in jail for the said corruption. MAS 370 was carrying Li Ion batteries in the hold, far more than is allowed in Europe or America on a pax aircraft. An explosion of these batteries would have created a rapid decompression as you have suggested. He was based at KLIA. The aircraft did turn back and appeared to be heading back to KLIA. I think all of us under enormous stress would choose our home airport to try put down a badly damage aircraft. Your description of what happens in a decom is excellent.
