I got an Independent Comp cycle Index from elsewhere with data all the way back to 1962 for the 10 yr US Treasury bond YLD and there's a very very clear 36-40 year UP/DOWN cycle - the LAST DOWN cycle started in 1981 and ended 2018/20 time- the UP cycle started in 2018/20, so naturally we have to expect rising "overall" Ylds for the next 30 odd years, which WILL mean the general trend of Int rates will be UP rather than down - Also if you think about it, the cycle caused/predicted the ultra low Int rate era we have had for the years as the long term cycle was bottoming out and coming to its end
I uae straight cycle not just the trading day as would Peter Eliate recommends. We have 4.2 year cycle due any minute in stocks. Bond lows are expectred6/11, 7/12 and first week of Aug. Lows in November. Bonds should rally when stocks crash..in less than 10 days?
Thanks for your insights. Just to add, the analysis and statements are based on the 30y yield, not on bond prices. The yield and bond price have an important but inverse relationship. Not to get someone on the false train...