Got to love the way Joseph simplifies financial concepts in a manner that clearly explains what is going on underneath the hood without making it too technical or lengthy. Universities should definitely integrate this form of teaching in undergrad macro econ classes.
Purchasing a stock may seem straightforward, but selecting the correct stock without a proven strategy can be exceedingly challenging. I've been working on expanding my $210K portfolio for a while, and my primary obstacle is the lack of clear entry and exit strategies. Any advice on this matter would be greatly appreciated.
The strategies are quite rigorous for the regular-Joe. As a matter of fact, they are mostly successfully carried out by pros who have had a great deal of skillset/knowledge to pull such trades off.
Even with the right strategies and appropriate assets, investment returns can differ among investors. Recognizing the vital role of experience in investment success is crucial. Personally, I understood this significance and sought guidance from a market analyst, significantly growing my account to nearly a million. Strategically withdrawing profits just before the market correction, I'm now seizing buying opportunities once again.
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CPI should include financing costs again. There's nothing problematic with recognizing reality. Currency debasement and higher borrowing costs go hand in hand. Very simple
In my part of the country, if you reverted to 3 1/2% mortgage rates, I believe homes would be relatively more expensive. The price of a home seems to have increased more than interest rates. I like the economists’ alternate look at inflation. Occupancy expenses are significant to both businesses and consumer.
Really, it took a bunch of phd's to figure out figure out the cost of financing impacts normal people even though they have fixed rate mortgages. That's why they took it out of the calculation to begin with, so they could tell everyone inflation was coming down and under control
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Polarization cannot be an explanation for the low consumer sentiment because the sentiment index reflects the sentiment of the overall population. For it to be a valid explanation, you have to have had over-sampled Republican consumers. Polarization should not affect the overall sentiment.
@@Fedguy12 Democrats would be especially less-negative (or even positive) on Biden, i.e. Democrat sentiment will offset especially negative Republican sentiment. At least look at the graph you presented to make your argument if you are going to argue that Republicans are especially negative on economy. The sentiment indicator by party affiliation shows independent sentiment right in the middle of Democrats and Republican, i.e. democrat sentiment and republican sentiment are about equidistant from independent sentiment (during Biden's presidency).
@@Fedguy12 No. You would have especially positive (or less negative) sentiment from Democrats offsetting the especially negative sentiment from Republicans. The consumer sentiment by political affiliation graph you presented shows that the independent sentiment is roughly in the middle (i.e. democrat and republican sentiments are equidistance from independent sentiment) during Biden's presidency. In fact, it might even be argued that the democrat sentiment is skewing the overall sentiment upward (from the graph).
@@jookyuh When I look at the chart it looks like republicans are especially negative on Biden vs Obama. While democrats are about the same for Biden vs. Obama.
@@Fedguy12 I am failing to understand why you are selectively comparing data between Biden vs. Obama presidency, just to fit your narrative. By your logic, Democrats had especially negative sentiment during Trump presidency (i.e. compared to Bush presidency), yet we did not see the discrepancy that we are seeing now b/w the consumer sentiment index and the economic data. Hence, this explanation does not stand and the data is inconclusive at best. You are better off finding an explanation somewhere else.
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Back in 2022 when btc was at its cycle low, people where saying btc is done for it's going below $15k US it's going to zero. Well it's down 10% from mid March ath 2024 and now everyone is shitting themselves. That doesn't make any logical sense especially for crypto.Its just a shake out phase, chill people go zoom out at old charts. We are at around 1.4 trillion market cap and only growing, just wait and see the price next year in March it will double....I've been engaged in active trading and managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.3Bitcoin to a decent 24Bitcoin....I'm especially grateful to Linda Wilburn, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
Consumers are unhappy because everything is much more expensive than it was a few years ago, not just the cost of money. Look at groceries or how expensive it is to eat out. Just because the rate at which prices are going up has slowed doesn't mean people should be confident. They are concerned that prices remain elevated and show no signs of going down. Once prices are raised they rarely ever go down.
I mean this is pretty much & add the fact that wages haven't increased nearly as much as inflation. Now put all this together, along w the pre 1983 Inflation measurements, ur gonna get some unhappy people - and rightfully so. Not sure why this is difficult for people with degrees in economics to understand
Ikr, it cracks me up to read/hear that "economists are dumbfounded by weak consumer sentiment," people are working double shifts to pay for basic needs, how would they not be desperate?! In which planet are those dumbfounded economists living?!
If you listen to regular people on TikTok or you talk to your friends, they are most upset that all their money is going to pay the bills. There’s nothing left over for fun or joy. All their money goes towards necessities and it doesn’t even cover their necessities.
I think sky news had a chart that showed absolute inflation has gone up 20% in the UK vs 2020, and when wages haven't gone up that much, CPI based on YoY growth failed to capture the reality of cost of living crisis. E.g if price of burger gone up to 120 from 100 since 2020, so saying prices had only gone up 2% over last 12 months seems totally misleading when actual cost has gone up 20%!
Thanks Joseph. It will be interesting to see if consumer sentiments ever led to a recession. Its highly possible that people grumble about higher prices but still pay for it because there is real wage increase!
I is not that the people are stupid,the data are. There is this rumour, some people have to pay for shelter, food and energy with a significant part of their income.
Joseph, my dear friend! Thanks for sharing your weekly pearls of wisdom. The possibility of the PBOC engaging in QE is quite intriguing. Love the vid! 📈🐂🐮
Uummm ... are you sure that "Voters are not stupid" ... Master Wang sir? ... 🤨 I think you could be mistaken about that one ... Master Wang sir ... 🤔 Yeeah - I do not believe that I am in full-agreement with you here ... 😕 ... Master Wang sir ... 😌
In 2020 you said everybody were trying to sell tsy and get cash. why then did the yields collapse during that time? shouldn't it be the opposite? If yields are lower then the demand is higher for tsy bonds? Thanks!
The keyword search you can do in google is "2020 dash for cash", and you can find various articles on bond market dynamics of the time. Liberty Street Economics has a decent summary. Bonds get a bid when growth expectations go lower, which was the case up through February 2020 with expectations of global growth due to the virus being known to cause problems in china, but in mid-March the demand for liquidity became apparent when it was confirmed spreading around the world, and there were even times when no one was bidding for debt. The Fed stepped in after that week with their QE program to provide a bid (until they tapered later 2021).
Does it mean that if the cost of financing is included in the CPI, the rate hike program maybe a counterproductive program that does nothing, other than creating a mountain of government debts?
