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@@tektkite7255Time will tell. RUS “winning” a pyrrhic victory & temporary at that. The rate of RUS combat losses & collapsing economy will deplete RUS entirely by the time they might capture the oblasts AND try to consolidate them. And recall that the Wehrmacht “won” all the way to within a few miles of Moscow & to the Volga in the south. The war is far from over.
Dont let negative comments ever change what you are doing, over the past couple of months you have become my go to channel to find out information without the fluff. Your highly analytical nature, thorough information gathering without wild speculation and trying to be objective is what makes this channel top of the pile.
since Ukraine hit the Savasleika airfield deep inside russia, the russian Airforce has less and less secure bases of operation for glide bombs and other air to ground ammunition to operate. Ukraine is continuously destroying critical assets of the russian armed forces while Ukraine receives more and more of high potential assets they will put to great use once the shaping permits it.
I watch a lot of different Utube perspectives and news related to Ukraine. Yours remains my favorite because of your no nonsense approach. Excellent report sir. Thanks
focusing on copium lol. Ukraine lost 2 brigades today, thousands of dead men in days, for a few cow fields. This channel was also reporting the "guaranteed success" of the Ukrainian offensive early this year. How did that go again?
@@estebanslavidastic4382this gentleman never uses some terms as „guaranteed“ in his prognoses. so wtf do you mean ? Write which video and which minute he should have said that.
It depends on the type of explosive, that is, how much oxygen is deficient. Eg... TNT produces dark, black smoke while amatol produces white or light gray smoke.
Torsten, that recruiting method ("join the army or go to jail") is something we do in the US under certain circumstances. (It is not a tool used by the government to bolster weak recruiting numbers but a choice made by some judges to try to give bad kids a chance to straighten out their lives.) In the case of Putin using it to drive recruitment, it will cause Putin's cops to arrest military-aged males for almost no real reason and then see Putin's judges sentencing these poor gopniki to crazy-long prison terms for these minor infractions-or volunteer to go to Ukraine and die. "What?! You jaywalked?! You failed to use your turn indicator?! IT'S OFF TO UKRAINE WITH YOU, KID!!!"
It makes sense for ukrainians not to claim their progress too fast, as it's better not to reveal a recent position, and the longer it takes for everyone to figure out what their objective is, the more likely they are to succeed, sure we want to know, but so does the russian command, and i'd rather neither of us does :). Someone said "surprise is an event that happens in the head of the enemy command".
Heinrich, would Ukrainians really expend this much effort in precious troops and limited resources only to withdraw? The analyst you sited is unknown to me. I am a US Brigade MI Officer. I was Advanced trained at Ft Huachuca. Previously, I was Advanced trained as an Armor Officer at Ft Knox. I can assure you, only a Superpower like the US would capture enemy positions only to give them away in a political settlement. Ukraine Objective 1 was to seize key territory making enabling the Ukrainian-Russian border to be secure. How can this be achieved? Capture all territory below a natural terrain barrier like river or lake network. Ukrainians can capture all of Kursk Oblast south of the Sayem River from Alekseyevka to Glushkovo to Korenevo. This is a significant water barrier. Korenevo would need a double layer defense line about 5K northwest of the settlement to reservoir northeast of the settlement. The defense lines would then fill the gaps all the way to Sheptukhovka then to Pogrebki. From here there is a major river and lake network south to Borki and onto Peny then south to Rakitnoye onto the Ukrainian border. This is all attainable and then defendable at a huge cost to Russians on any counterattack. It might also be possible to capture the river and lake network all the way to Belgorod’s suburb at Nikolskoye. These are all defendable borders for Ukraine. This is a worthy goal to risk precious troops and material. Ukrainians will add about 4 Brigades and a Brigade of replacements from September to December. These Units may get guard duty along with a Division Commander having experienced Units in key positions. I also believe GEN Syrskyi has another Division worth of reconstituted experienced Units to counterattack in eastern Ukraine. Watch for new Brigades to help in current fights. These will come out of “no where”.
My guess is Ukraine has a number of possible objectives. But primarily you are correct, they probed to see if they could breach initial defences, committed when it became apparent they could effectively with the intent of advancing to the defensive terrain and then probed while solidifying that initial gain. I'd be very surprised if they intend to leave easily. Politically Putin has to prioritise Kurst and they can't call for surrender with their ridiculous conditions while Ukraine holds it.
"I can assure you, only a Superpower like the US would capture enemy positions only to give them away in a political settlement." Right off the top of my head, Israeli withdrawal from the Sinai (buffer zone captured in war) in exchange for lasting peace with Egypt, 1979. I'm sure there are dozens of others. Captured territory is a great bargaining chip.
@@JohnDoe-420 The Israeli case also came with US backing for other things. Would Israel have done that deal without additional US support, very doubtful. After WW2, the US helped rebuild Germany and Japan. Did the British and French, with all their colonies, really need reparations from Germany after taking all of their colonies? The British and French created a vengeance peace encouraging another World War. The places where the US has intervened and then left could have done better IF they had overcome their historical issues. I wrote an official report presented on 09/14/2001, and submitted via the Change Of Command the same day. It was prior to the US invasion of Afghanistan. My written conclusions were these: only GEN Massoud of the Northern Alliance had the personal connections in Afghanistan’s to capture or kill Bin Laden, especially if in Tora Bora; 3 Superpowers over a 3,500 year period had conquered Afghanistan only to loose the peace; therefore, plan a 2 year maximum mission to kill Bin Laden, kill Taliban Omar, and destroy Al Qaeda effectiveness including all leaders; give light arms and vehicles only the the Northern Alliance; bride in cash everyone else; and get out. I specifically stated nation building was to be avoided, and only of National Council of people groups and regional leaders would govern the country. There would be no elections unless the people groups chose this form of governance. The US wasted a lot of time in Afghanistan, especially after attack drones were perfected.
Obviously, the more desperate the situation is for Ukraine, the more extreme it's actions need to be if it wants to win the war. Ukraine's situation was already desperate, and there was clearly no way for them to stop the steady advancement of Russian forces in Ukraine. There is only one thing which will do that. The Ukrainians know this. View the Kursk invasion in that light, and there is no question at all what they are doing, and what their goal is.
Another truly excellent report Torsten! You are my goto for analysis that is not only focused on the battle, but on important things like force replenishment, the political sphere, and weapons. Keep up the good work sir!
Anyone calling you stupid for not knowing why Ukraine is attacking in Kursk, has opinion worth nothing. I assume leadership in Ukraine knows the reasoning. They are messing up Russian plans. I believe it takes time for the troop movements to weaken the front. If Russians have moved their reserves from the east, those reserves are out of the fight for days for the movement. Slava Ukraine!
Thank you for your intelligent, balanced reporting, your steadfast dedication to truthfulness and your utter lack of interest in glorifying yourself. 👍💯❤️🎉
All of us armchair warrior and analysts seek simple answers and definitive hope but this incursion is very complex and has many factors which help Ukraine, some not so obvious to many. We won't be getting answer to this for a long time. While it seems a mistake to take troops from already depleted units, the benefits will be seen later. So far, the morale of troops has received a boost, which was needed on all fronts. Russia is panicking, and pulling troops from the South, so it's all good.
Hi New Zealand here. Thank you for your updates. I very much appreciate the effort you put into your work. You are always reliable and clear. It’s really good value. I hope you can keep it up. 👍
If I was Ukraine, I wouldn't relinquish the newly conquered territory, but annex it, as compensation for the territories the Russians refuse to give back. Fair is fair.
That way they would indirectly legitimize Russia's annexed regions, since they'd approve of their methods by using the same. They'd also need the UN to recognize those regions as Ukrainian. And they wouldn't get this recognition even from their allies and supporters. So starting a political move with only downsides just to feel good wouldn't make sense.
As a counterbalance to any naysayers you might be hearing from, I follow you specifically because you do not exaggerate and make claims based on tiny bits of data. There are probably many of your viewers who appreciate your style greatly. Keep the great updates coming!
Thank you Torsten! Keep doing what you’re doing! You will never make everyone happy, especially those that are biased from the beginning. I for one, appreciate the quality of the information and not pure speculation, which you provide.
It's a very ballsy move by Ukraine and I hope they can use it to disrupt Russian activities as much as possible ! Taking the fight to them was completely unexpected which is why it could be extremely effective, very recently Putin was trying to get into negotiations because they were feeling the strain and needed a bit of time to resupply and regroup, hopefully they will not have been able to achieve that as yet so Ukraine really need to make the most of this ! I also heard that Russian communications have not improved and lead to them destroying a column of their own tanks that were reported to be Ukrainian by mistake, this shows how disorganised and panicked they are right now !
Thank you for not showing me only the good news from Kursk but paying attention to the rest of the frontline. Most pro Ukraine bloggers don't do that to my frustration. It's all about the incursion in Kursk. for reports from the rest of the front I have to turn to the pro Russian apologists and they are extatic.They breached the lines in Donbass bla bla bla war is over etc etc I know you give balanced info not propaganda from either side and that is why I'm subscribed to your videos
A few things Ukraine is likely capturing a fair amount of equipment and supplies during this incursion. While Kursk was obviously not well defended, the fact that so many troops are just surrendering in place means those troops equipment is being taken. This would include older vehicles, and russian caliber artillery shells, both of which are very useful to Ukraine because they extend the amount of time that legacy soviet equipment remains useful to Ukraine. It is almost always good tactics to make your enemy react to you, rathe than vice versa.... Ukraine has been forcing the Russians to grind slowly at huge cost for a while now, and the Russians had adjusted their capabilities to support that specific tactics. Now suddenly they have to make huge changes, while their CIC is enraged, and the high command are terrified of being pushed out windows. They are guaranteed to make mistakes in this process, that Ukraine will likely be able to exploit. Many have criticized Ukraine for this tactic, based on the supposed 'fact' that nuclear nations cannot be attacked. This offensive has first of all proven that is not the case, and that Russia will not use nuclear weapons when invaded. That works to Ukraines advantage as it means the west will have fewer qualms about increasing Ukrainian support. And then, if Putin actually does deploy nukes or escalates some other way, then the response (as it has been throughout the war) from the west will be both a loosening of restrictions on Ukraine, and increased weapons aid as well. if Ukraines provocation was to lead to a large enough section by russia to threaten Ukrainian sovereignty, this would likely pull Poland and the Baltics into direct armed conflict with Russia. Any of these outcomes to the Kursk invasion will help Ukraine and essentially be Russia's final doom, and it is likely that Ukraine are willing to take the slight risk of losing a city to a russian nuclear strike, knowing that if that unlikely warcrime occurred, it would end the war and Russia. Obviously they would rather not be nuked, but it is the worst case, and even the worst case actually means victory for Ukraine, if at horrible cost. It is important to remember that Ukraine MUST win this war, they are (and their neighbours) all well aware that if russia is not stopped, these wars will continue until they are all destroyed. So russia will not be allowed to win no matter the cost. This last bit is depressing, and the way to keep it from happening is simple. It is time to give Ukraine the freedom to attack all military targets in russia, it is time to give them the longer ranged weapons needed for this, and it is time to stop letting russia lies about 'red lines' influence behaviour. It is time to make russia understand that they cannot win, to force them to surrender and disarm, and to prevent their rearming in the future. This has always been the case, but for some reason people thought edging close to disaster was smarter than simply doing the intelligent thing from the start. Fortunately, due to huge ukrainian sacrifice and remarkable Ukrainian excellence, coupled with the legendary corruption and evident stupidity of the russian government and military, it isn't too late.
Your position on ''assessments'' is correct and logical! Your history of objectively reporting matters martial has been impeccable to date. Du solltest zuverlässig sein und Freude haben an der Arbeit. Be well and stay safe
Putin is trying to say: "Nothing to see here! Move along!" (Like Leslie Nielson on front of the fireworks factory in the "Naked Gun'" 😅) P💩ptin is screwed.
Ukraine still needs to find a better defense against glidebombs. It's really the only thing that allows Russia to advance. This would mean Ukraine still needs a lot more Patriot systems so they can put some closer to the front to hunt down the Russian planes. Ukraine also needs to do whatever it takes to stop the Pokrost advance. They are losing as much territory there as they are gaining in Kurst. You can be in a better negotiating position IF you're losing in the east well gaining in the north. Situation in the war only went frim terrible to slightly better with the kurst invasion.
it'"s good that UAF can advance, now can they control it in a month? can they put in place logistics to sustain offensive or defensive operations? do they have enough manpower? Is that all a diversion to relieve pressure in the south? If only they had more trained soldiers, this is proof that they can destabilize Russian army...
Your comment about not jumping to conclusions based on 10% information is greatly appreciated and realistic. I have dropped talking heads like davidov who pretend to be some sort of expert, which he is NOT. Keep up the good work, danke!
5:45 well, military leadership doesn't have the urge to post vids as much as the individual units do. since opsec could be at risk when posting vids that show progress almost in real time. seems the main reason why it releases "old" footage. ribar is clinging to that fact and feint "no new advances" just for internal prop, to cope with the inability to stop ukraine from almost roaming "freely" in kursk. next week they say the same on vids showing progress from today.
If they're able to cut off that train line, it could be a huge deal for the war. I've heard pundits talk about the gas station, as though the entire gas pipeline doesn't go through Ukraine already.
I love your response to the "name callers". A less restrained commentator would say something like this: "Don't argue with idiots, they only drag you down to their level and belt you with their superior experience."😛
That the AFU in Kursk is operating at night, without having to stick to roads or attack towns, in an Oblast that hasn't yet been completely mined, must be very confusing for Russian forces who are waiting for the enemy to approach.
Maybe UA wants to incircle/attack from behind the Russian troops near Charkiv. And on the left they might want to shorten the frontline. The soldier taken from Chasiv Yar is now in a winning mood and he can achieve more in Kursk oblast then in Chasiv Yar. When you know strange people are in your house, you also want to go home and do the things you need to do to get them out. Same as with the Russians. They do not want to admit but they have to send more and more troops back home to fight the Ukranians. There are mo troops in the hinterlands from the Russians. Think big. Imagine you play a military game, you break through and there is no military opponent 🎉. The Russian lines at the east and south front will become a Jenga tower. Then RF is fighting on UA soil but in the meanwhile your enemy takes your homeland....😅. And when UA is smart they secretly build up an other big attack force and strike somewhere else, into the Jenga frontline.
Seems to be a gamble with the Ukrainian offensive. Troubling to see that UKR forces are being pulled from needed areas, but not a lot of evidence that Russian forces are. At least from the front lines and they're continuing to advance. That's got to change otherwise I think the main Ukrainian offensive may not be worthwhile. Give it time though. They have been creating one heck of a diversion. But, is that enough? I sure hope we start seeing more tangible results! Too early to tell.
Ukraine has no options but to give everything to survive!! Now they need full support to keep going with supplies and allow weapons to be used in Russia!!
If the experts "don't know", and the Russians "don't know", and we can not be sure whether Ukraine "knows", that's a lot of unknowing, which leaves a lot of options for Ukraine and multiple dilemma in terms of decision-making for Russia.
The problem for the orcs in Vovchansk and the Kharkiv front generally, is that if they stay where they are? Well there's a good chance Ukraine will come right up behind them.... But worse if they withdraw instead to defend Russia in the Kursk direction, well Ukraine clearly will not simply stop at the Kharkiv border any more, those days are over now! So the only thing left is hold on and build defences... I doubt they even started that process.
