Many non-Chinese investors can't quite understand the relationship between these Chinese companies and the Chinese government (which they instinctively prefer using the term CCP) and habitually like to put it on the opposite side as if it is unproductive, counter-progress, the 'bad guy' if you will, trying to point fingers at these company CEOs and tell them who's boss. This is far from the truth if you're know a thing or two about modern Chinese society and look at the big picture objectively in regard to China's development in the past 40+ years. There would simply be no Alibaba or Tencent or Bytedance of today if it weren't for their government's early-day internet policies because the whole Chinese market would be owned by Google, Facebook, Amazon, Twitter, etc. Ray Dalio says it best: "you don't jump in and out [when investing in China]". China is in the process of 'nation building' and you must look at it historically and understand where they came from and where they are going. They have plans for 20, 50 or even 100 years, and it's wise as investors to take the long term route instead.
I’m actually not surprised at all… He spoke recently about how his investing philosophy changed after he read Thomas Phelps book and Nick Sleeps shareholder letters…He said he is no longer looking for dollar bills priced at 40 cents… He now desires 10 - 100baggers… Alibaba will not give him that sort of return… so it makes sense to sell!
Yeah I think he said recently that while you can get good returns in baba, you're starting from a very large base which makes it harder to hit the 10 bagger
2 года назад
@@NewMoneyRU-vid That would be the same for Tencent though.
@@NewMoneyRU-vid you covered that as well, now this will be very very VERY interesting to follow. I am a holder of baba myself, this could be a case study, hopefully in the favor of Munger. 😅. Regardless this is huge news, thanks for your videos.
He did the wash sale thing with Micron Technology couple years ago and bought it back. He mentioned about it in his investor annual meeting couple years ago
Maybe he doesn't care. He has too much money and too little time to spend it. I'd buy baba too, just for the fun of it. Trolling couch investors and other apes
Exactly. He's cashing out like much of the rich are and have already done and continue to do. It's called "smart" money running for the hills. Leaving the bags to trading desks and retail.
The Hong Stocks 9988 and NYSE Baba are IDENTICAL and fungible. You can swap the nyse baba stocks anytime for the hong kong version... you need to pay a broker fee but they are identical. They cancel your baba and issue you with 9988. I believe he has just converted it.
That guess does not make sense at all, Chinese stocks do not move that way, Tencent will not 10x while BABA will remain in 2-3x range. Tencent is already a behemoth just like BABA. More likely some small cap will 10x while BABA will remain in the 2-3x range.
@Ministry of Mystics I don't think he just copied Munger, Munger bought twice and currently price is near Mungers average. But also I don't think he blatantly chickened out. I just dissagree that Tencent is a better alternative.
I might just be totally wrong, but to me it seems like Tencent basically has a monopoly on their buisiness in China. Also, it is clear that Tencent's management is very(!) keen on aligning their interests with the CCP, as they've shown by how thoroughly they go about implementing the new restrictions, making these restrictions even harsher(!) then they need to ('to promote healthy video game environment'). This, to me, shows that Tencent thinks long term alignment with CCP > short profits, which I really like. I also think that Baba has more growth potential if(!) their global expansion (72h global shipping) is successfull and if they can boost their cloud buisiness. TL;DR: I think Tencent is the safer play, but Baba has more potential.
Been saying this. It’s Tencent and NetEase. They’re the only 2 top Chinese businesses that have reach outside of China. And they are metaverse friendly.
I think the potential "something new" reason in a different stock is the most believable reason. But also I reckon if this was the case, Pabrai would see the tax benefit by locking in a loss as a "happy little accident" to turn a phrase
@@bartekbinda1114 I think you just made a typo but he wouldn't pump the price before buying in. As for the mentioning on a live, I doubt he would pump the stock. Pumping is ultimately a short term effect, sure some investors are following Pabrai but if his position is long term, pumping shouldn't improve his chances of getting a multibagger
Sure but still if u get a stock as a long term investment at a 10% higher price and its a tenbagger the value shrinks to around 9.1x which is still an impressive return but still u prefer the tenbagger
@@bartekbinda1114 yes a multi bagger is still good even if pumped but the point is exactly that. Why pump a stock if your position is long term? Basically there's little to nothing to gain and some profit to lose from pumping intentionally
I do have doubts about Alibaba and all Chinese businesses in the long run as as recent Geo-politics and actions by China, the pandemic and tensions between China and its neighbors, the US, Australia and other western democracies has created a very negative mentality surrounding China and everything coming out of it, and these businesses will face increasing regulatory pressure and monitoring outside China, and may make it difficult to grow their business. Simply put if people had to choose between Alibaba and Amazon/some other non-chinese retailer, I think people would rather not buy from them. This psychological factor can be a huge factor in the long run.
He has never spoken about the stock when he is thinking of buying... He was very resistant about disclosing his position about Shinoken and Rysas. For a very long time they were great stock with all details but not the name. He has just kept 4% out of respect for Munger otherwise he is out.
I sold mine a couple of months ago with over % 40 loss. Luckily I got break even with consecutive day trading with the other stocks in 2 months. I generally do not do day trading. I do no think that I will ever trade another Chinese stock even if they have a perfect financial status.
See it like paying for training. Start off with a small amount. It's about dealing with emotions more than you think. Research hard and have a plan - stick to your plan. I have been trading for about 2 years. Things just starting to pay off for me. First six months everyone losses. It's those that stick at it that get ahead. I have nice tricks made 150% on Roblox trade last week before earnings. Just don't listen to mainstream media. Draw your own conclusions or find reliable mentor. That's my best advice! Good luck 🙏
Is it possible he's prep ping for the recession? New to the Channel and reckon you should be proud mate. Fantastic work! (And fro m a guy I feel I should be talking about Holden with 👍
Partial clickbait. He lowered his position, he didn't sell out. This is a risky investment one shouldn't have too much exposure to, but has enough future potential to hold a little of.
How about if Mohnish Pabrai had an inside informations about the CCP next step against Alibaba. We will see it after next quarter report. Never understimate inside informations.
It is possible though that Hongkong shares will somehow be integrated in the overall Chinese market. That is the goal of the chinese government after all, isn't it, to integrate the former british colony into China where it belongs. There are plans for the so called Greater Bay Area (GBA) which includes Shenzen, Guangdong, Macau, Hongkong and a couple of other cities in that region. Recently some western banks are allowed to sell investment products related to that specific area. I personally believe that the Hongkong Dollar won't be around forever, but at some point will be transfered into RMB. That would be the obvious thing to do. That means your Hongkong shares might be transfered into China-mainland shares, which could be a reason why M. Pabrai bought the Hongkong shares.
It is obvious and easy to say now, but anyway, he like a lot others, including famous billionaires, just didn't think the stock will fall like it did when they bought it. and maybe he was wrong to sell, no one knows now only speculates.
CCP is not going to clarify all the rules at once, and sometimes I think that’s intentional. I m Chinese and I love my county, but I really hate this fact about China myself
It could also be Mohnish moving his Alibaba shares from NYSE to Hong Kong Exchange, which doesn't need to be disclosed in 13F Filings. This is reasonable given the risk of delisting of Chinese companies from US markets. Thoughts on this?
Great points . After listening to his thoughts on Tencent and Thomas Phelps it does make sense. Now sitting on this large cash position I'm very interested in his next buy. All in all I'm not a fan of breaking rule number 1 & 2 for any reason.
on the same day when i saw the 13F of Mohnish ,i messaged to tom (investing with Tom) and even i was thrown away after seeing 13f ...and then tom said all the possibilities as you stated..... but if he is building money for then even we didnt see tencent buy or may be he bought hong kong version or anysort .... but stil confused wrt alibaba....a quarter ago he said crown jewel and all other prospects and just 1 quarter and he dumped ~78%......seeming strage though anyways thank you for the video Brandon
Maybe he realized the situation, which the capital markets are facing due to a possible deflationary liquidity crunch coming out of the chineese housing market
If I was a big investor & in low & looked @ the 2008-9 correlation & p/e ratio before the crash I might not want the risk that may last longer than 18 months!
Reason #6, maybe he was just pumping it all along so youtube viewers could buy it and then he can sell them at a higher price. That didn’t happen but he sold out anyway because he didn’t buy for the right reasons.
