Home “For Sale” signs are popping up on almost every street that I drive daily in my area. 18 months ago real estate agents didn’t even have to put a sign up. 18 months from now is going to be a buyer’s market from hell.
Since Mike brings up politics, according to laws already in place, there are no locations in the US where noncitizens can vote in federal and/or state elections. Therefore, the Save Act is redundant. Local jurisdictions already have checks in place. There’s been no proof that show noncitizens are voting
Once the market and economy starts suffering they will probably get like a rabbit in the headlights, will we see some sort of knee jerk stimulus or quantitative easing
If US doesn't need the proof to be the citizen to vote? Can I vote too? I can fly in. C'on Mike, every country need the proof of the citizenship to vote.
agreed. Even if it didn't predict anything, the fact it's inverted makes it super clear the gov is broke and needs foreign investment to keep on spending...
Mike could be "on about" the fact under floating ex-rate the central bank chooses the interest rate (whether they admit it or not, it is their main policy dial). When they choose ⇑we get a massive regressive stimulus through interest income (if Tsy issue-to-GDP ratio is above about 40--50%) and forward prices, meaning workers will have to demand higher wages and they will get 'em, otherwise (real) firms cannot sell output. When they choose ⇓then this stimulus stops, so absent other policy adjustments, like infrastructure investment or switch to M4A or mark-up in social security payments, then they've just *_voted for_* a recession. The yield curve dis-inverts *_because they voted for it to invert._* Is can be a predictor of a recession, but is not the cause, because it effects the largely parasitic bond market (savings incentives, which are "anticapital"), not the real economy, to first order. The real economy runs on sales, the opposite of savings. Bond traders will make their adjustments and things proceed fairly deterministically _in the macro._ I can appreciate this is an overly simplistic account, but what else can I do in a youtube comments section?
@@milkshakeplease4696 Yes it did. Disinversion predated 2020, 2008, 2001, and 1991 by 3-9 months. The curve disinverted when a recession was already in progress in 1979 and 1981 but given the backdated nature of confirming a recession (2 previous quarters of negative GDP growth), it would have acted as a forward indicator at the time
Anyone who owns a US treasury note receives interest payments from the government. That interest payment is a transfer of income from the government to the recipient, hence “interest income transfer”
the doomsday of the uninversion of the yield curve is all over twitter and LinkedIn….you got to fade this, although the market is on shaky ground short term. By the way, are you specifically referring to MacroAlf for today’s video? I suspect you are lol
