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Some interesting choices here. Agree with you on small caps. It's key with tactical plays within a portfolio for there to be catalysts, not just the fact a sector is cheap. Small caps have underperformed for 12 years and are finally getting the catalysts they need (biggest sector in the Russell is financials who stand to benefit from a better economic environment). As someone once told me, "to be too early, is still to be wrong".
I'm a very concentrated investor but sometimes there is value in adding a small new position. It isn't for diversification. Focusing on something new provides a productive distraction from overthinking what you already own. It allows you and your portfolio to breathe a little bit
My 80/20 Portfolio insights ... 80% of my investments are sound, so sound that everyone here would be very impressed. 20% is invested in stupidity. Never underestimate the POWER of stupid people in large numbers. Hope that helps.
@justmeajah Sure ... Academically, it's called "The Dunning-Kruger Effect." Or, when I was young, the GIGO Effect (GI = GO). The Greeks called it, "Certainty Brings Insanity" To the scientist, it's "Narrative" vs "Expository Data". It's what's wrong with most human ap3s -- too danm confident! If stvpid people are drive the price of something up ... well, why not ride their gravy train?!? They're gonna do it, regardless. Try -- just TRY -- to convince them otherwise. Astrology, religion, and, yes .... investing (to the stvpid) is all "narrative" driven. They feed on it. Might as well make money off their stvpidity.
Is the dividend cover for BBOX reasonable? If lowish you might see your dividends cut on you. Also, is SMT trading at a significant discount? If it is then that might be indicating poor performance or bad management. 10% of your portfolio in trades might be a bit high if things go south rapidly.
Nice vid Ramin. What puzzled me though was that why do you expect High Yield Bonds to become cheaper in first place - if the Fed/ECB etc rates are expected to go down in the near(ish) future... (But if that happens anyway, let us know...)
@@colintayler5937 fair enough but my global technology index tracker is up 245% since 2017 and only has an expense ratio of 0.30% Thanks for your input.
Hi Ramin There is this Betashares Global Quality leaders ETF available in Australia, which isn't too heavy with magnificent 7s😊... Infact none of the mag 7 is in its top 10
Hi @tomsjose4u thanks for sharing that www.betashares.com.au/fund/global-quality-leaders-etf/ I see what you mean. The thing about Quality is that the definition isn't standardised in any way. So two index providers could come up with entirely different portfolios, as is the case here. MSCI's definition is completely different from the one for iStoxx (iSTOXX MUTB Global Ex-Australia Quality Leaders 150 Index is tracked by the fund you mention). Ramin.
What helps is to compare such funds, or stocks, with the 2008/2009 crashes, and begin at 2007. That's a 'rule' i use, and you will be surprised what works and what doesn't.... My opinion about this shopping list is that it won't work, a losing strategy, because of too much stocks, and financial, related stuff in it🤔.... Not the healthiest things to have in bear markets.... ETF's- short, indices, stocks, are better, if bought at the right time of course...
Hi @EdED-gg6fr the point is you buy _after_ these things crash. Financials, for example, did pretty well following the crash in 2008/9 and did well after the SVB failure and I did pretty well on that trade although I closed it too soon. If valuation models are available I ususally look at those too to judge when to get in and out. Thanks, Ramin.
If waiting for a crash why not just wait for the CORE fund to crash as it all drops together ? The problem with buying Scottish Mortgage is the 0.5% stamp duty and spread and ongoing high charges so I don’t think it makes sense to hold long term. Only makes sense short term if it drops more than the general market.
Hi @davidhaylett1810 the idea is to have some "dry powder" that doesn't crash so you have more to invest and that should give a higher overall return. The 0.5% stamp duty is a one-off charge when you buy on the London Stock Exchange so it's something I'm willing to live with - 0.5% is less than a typical one-day move on the stock market for SMT (daily volatility is about 1.4%). It's the ongoing fees that are really awful. I'm hoping that stamp duty reserve tax gets scrapped anyway to revitalise the UK stock market. Thanks, Ramin
@@Pensioncraft The dry powder is to have a % of the portfolio in money market funds of cash. Probably 25% to 75% according to B Graham. The stamp duty still represents 4 years of charges on your Vanguard fund and has to be paid on reinvested divs too. Unlikely any taxes will be reduced by desperate labour party. And the EU is seeking to introduce an international tax too so can't see us going the other way.
Hi @se3059 I haven't done anything on RU-vid for VCTs but I did a whole video about it for our members: pensioncraft.com/patreon-post/venture-capital-trusts/ Thanks, Ramin.
None of those seemed to have worked out that well, just hung it in a decent tracker and leave it there. Small caps by the way are notoriously tricky, so it may work but it may well not.
A quality ETF has more-or-less the same companies in it like a S&P500 ETF (IWFQ v VUAG). An ETF like VUAG tends to perform better over time, and is less expensive to own (0.30 v 0.07).
Interesting. Not your normal pitch. 10:58. Yes, HG has done very well but there is a reason. They simply buy up software companies with cheap debt which, of course, is no longer quite so cheap. That's the first flaw, the same flaw that is dragging Diageo down. The second issue is that, as with all asset grabbing outfits, they have no real interest or continuity with the management, innovation and software development. They see business acquisitions as little more than cash machines and squeeze profits from both ends by overcharging at the revenue end and cutting costs with cheap unskilled labour to squeeze every last drop. It happens so often and is very much part of the 'corporate mentality' where software licensing is seen as easy money, that is, until a competitor turns up and is not prepared to sell out to them.
Hi @MartinJG100 interesting, thanks for sharing that. You're right about funding costs being a headwind for private equity but these things go in cycles. That's why, now that private equity is less attractive, I thought there might be some opportunities. I can be very patient 8-) Thanks, Ramin.
Is USML Accumulating? A lot of platforms don't list it. I want to transfer my pension so I can invest my sipp into it. Fidelity list it and only have a 0.2 fx fee for most of it and they seem the cheepest total costs at £97 total a year with one trade. Are there any other ideas on platforms I can use? I am worried about the fx fee on the cheep sites. Is Fidelity a safe enough provider to keep your whole pension in?
Hi @dan-jh4mz yes it's accumulating www.invesco.com/uk/en/financial-products/etfs/invesco-sp-smallcap-600-ucits-etf-acc.html You can trade it on Hargreaves Lansdown, Trading 212, and Interactive Investor and probably others (not a recommendation). Personally I'd be more worried about having my entire pension in small caps than I would about having all my pension in a single fund. Thanks, Ramin
Hi @declanmcardle if the company went public then the private stakes would be sold, presumably in proportion to their pre-IPO holding. The valuation of that holding could increase significantly if the share price then surges which may or may not happen. But I suspect that nerds like me would love it if SpaceX went public 8-) Thanks, Ramin.
One question I have is that it seems like US stocks always fall when the Dollar gets stronger, like today on Wednesday stocks went down as the Dollar shot up in value dramatically. Perhaps the political situation in the USA looking like it is on a better footing and more healthy with Biden out of the way, has made the Dollar I guess stronger? And because of that stocks crashed today? Does that make sense or am I just over analyzing things?
Hi @drscopeify as a UK investor if the pound weakens versus the dollar it increases the return on USD denominated assets. A global stock index fund will be 60% or more allocated to US equity so strengthening sterling versus USD is bad for your portfolio. However, over the long term developed market currencies don't drift as much as stocks do (over the last 120 years global equity has risen by about 5% above inflation) so currency movements become less important the longer you hold stocks. And stocks are a long-term investment. Thanks, Ramin.
Hey Ramin. I have a question about bonds. If it turns out that we are going to have a global economic slowdown (not reccesion yet) after last years of higher inflation. (China has slowed down, AI may do POP, commodities are getting cheap, unemployment in the US is slowly but rising, living on credit is getting expensive). Soon the FED and the rest of the world will start cutting %. There is an opportunity to snap up higher % bonds relative to % inflation. People have forgotten that it is possible to make money, but away from risk. 😉 Does Vanguard UK offer any good bond fund where I could hold a pension pot until we get into recovery again? Of course, the final decision is mine.
Interesting, I've been thinking about the same moves. Already in on Scottish Mortgage since the crash. On US Small Caps, I was a tad worried the rotation wouldn't last and it'll loose steam. Copper also very interesting. Ramin, do you have a target price for copper?
Aren't small caps supposed to go down in a recession... which is where US could be headed... So not sure if now is the time buy. Also Russell went down 2% yesterday.
Hi @ribusgan Scottish Mortgage is an investment trust. It trades as a stock on the London Stock Exchange. I bought via my platform just as I would any other stock in the secondary market. As an investor the fact that the fund is closed ended doesn't make a difference to the mechanics of the purchase and there's ample liquidity for the amounts I'd buy. You can see individual trades on the LSE website here www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/SMT/scottish-mortgage-investment-trust-plc/company-page if you scoot down to "Recent trades". Thanks, Ramin
Market dip, I buy. Dip again, buy again. Dip once more, buy. what good is my dry powder if I don't use it to buy discounted shares from fearful panic sellers.
Hi Ramin... question regarding big box trirax, if they have a 10 year track record of 100% rwnt collection which i think is similar to the vici reit im wondering why do they have a large sell off? Would it be down to investors not seeing the potential for growth during the High interest rates or a worry that rents would not be collected?
Hi @montyloads part of the unpopularity is due to the fact it's an investment trust and all UK investment trusts have been unpopular recently. Secondly the UK economy was not seen as being in a good place and this is a cyclical sector (less growth means less shopping which means less demand for storage space for online shopping inventory). Rates being high doesn't help as this is a high income investment and it's competing with gilts offering 4.5% and money markets offering 5.2% for almost no risk at all. Thanks, Ramin.
Fun portfolios should have some MSTR, you should look into it, especially for ISAs in the UK 💪😎😉 95% of fund managers cant beat the S&P 500 index, make sure you're only using 10% or less for fun 😂
Is there a way of knowing if the copper mining companies mine from Congo, i wouldn't want to be investing in a company of group of companies that are benefiting from what is happening there
1. What will you sell? If you're holding cash, you need to subtract the opportunity cost AS WELL from the gains. 2. Dividends are not free money and come from total return. 3. Commodities have a negative expected return. 4. Buying the dip underperforms time in the market. See 1.
Buing the dip doesn't underperform anything... unless you're waiting for years for the dip. Buying at high valuations before the dip can lead to being down for a decade or two. That's catastrophic if you need the money.
True @gustinian the glut in China is one reason given for the weak price currently (July 2024). And recycling is another negative for copper demand as you point out. However the long-term trend seems to be a move to much higher demand so I'm still convinced this could be interesting long-term. Thanks, Ramin.
Your videos are always great Ramin - but I see that you have started copying Damian and others by having shots of zombies or a woman with lots of shopping. Personally, I find that distracting. I’d rather see and listen to you rather than have my attention taken away. My suggestion is, like your investment strategy, keep it simple.❤
Consider EWI.L. It’s like SMT but with smaller companies. It’s on a greater discount and 11% is SpaceX which has the strongest of all companies for the space lunch market and low earth orbit based Internet services to flood the globe with internet connectivity.
Hi @daviddawson9099 if it's a tactical trade then you need to think about your entry and exit points before you trade. For example with US financials I decided to sell once their price recovered. I missed out on some upside but that was my decision before I bought. If it's my core portfolio I'll hold until I need the money in over ten years time (hopefully!). Thanks, Ramin.
Hi @joec9958 fund returns are always net of fees so yes fees were included. I don't have a trading fee on the platform I use for my fun portfolio (Trading 212) Thanks, Ramin.
Hi @001sander2 I opened an ISA on Interactive Investor so I could experiment with buying single gilts (a nominal and an inflation-linked bond). Once those matured I moved the money into a money market fund so that's effectively cash waiting on the sidelines in an ISA. The rest is cash in my Trading 212 ISA that I've never deployed. It too is sitting in a money market fund earning about 5.2% at the moment. Thanks, Ramin.
- scottish fund has just unbelievable holdings…the holdings u drram to have all in one asset! - copper: u have CAML stock which is an outsider on copper i bielve.
Yeah, he has copper, but doesn't have gold somehow...Gold has been pretty good in the last few years, showing it has still has those inflation-hedging and anti-geopolitical properties still.
Is it still wise to buy a home now, Stock or should I hold off and invest in the cryptocurrency market until the housing market corrects itself? It appears that this week's airdrops are great values
