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Nassim Taleb - "The Black Swan" 

Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
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Best-selling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb spoke at the Woodrow Wilson School on Tuesday, April 10, 2012 at 4:30 p.m., in Dodds Auditorium, Robertson Hall. Taleb's talk was part of the School's "Economic Recovery: Perils, Politics and Possibilities" thematic lecture series.
wws.princeton.edu

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12 апр 2012

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Комментарии : 66   
@gautewangen591
@gautewangen591 9 лет назад
He speaks more about Antifragility than the Black Swan. Just to clarify the topic.
@jcxcruzer1291
@jcxcruzer1291 12 лет назад
What I like about Nassim, is that he always has good analogies for what he is trying to explain.
@SchaefStudiosLLC
@SchaefStudiosLLC 9 лет назад
This man is brilliant. Plain and simple.
@colemanbryce9809
@colemanbryce9809 2 года назад
i know im asking the wrong place but does anybody know of a trick to get back into an instagram account?? I was dumb lost my password. I would appreciate any help you can give me
@lachlancedric5058
@lachlancedric5058 2 года назад
@Coleman Bryce instablaster ;)
@colemanbryce9809
@colemanbryce9809 2 года назад
@Lachlan Cedric I really appreciate your reply. I got to the site through google and I'm in the hacking process atm. Looks like it's gonna take a while so I will reply here later when my account password hopefully is recovered.
@colemanbryce9809
@colemanbryce9809 2 года назад
@Lachlan Cedric It did the trick and I actually got access to my account again. I am so happy:D Thanks so much, you saved my ass :D
@lachlancedric5058
@lachlancedric5058 2 года назад
@Coleman Bryce Happy to help xD
@WhenWonderWanders
@WhenWonderWanders 8 лет назад
I am a really big fan of Nassim Taleb's work. I am primarily interested in it in relation to running a business and success. He basically exposes the massive biases that society operates under on a daily basis. I really like this idea that just because someone made it on the stock market doesn't mean they earned it on merit - it could have been a result of sheer dumb luck. And yet society will look to these individuals as teachers.
@DontTestTheX
@DontTestTheX 8 лет назад
The same in business. Most a successes are an accident of time and place.
@vimalcurio
@vimalcurio Год назад
@@DontTestTheX no it's not the same in business. You gotta go through lot of trial and error unless you found the product market fit accidentally and you didn't notice it.
@HermeticIvy-zo9bi
@HermeticIvy-zo9bi Год назад
@@DontTestTheX & who you know..
@ilikemitchhedberg
@ilikemitchhedberg 11 лет назад
Nassim Taleb says we should go to a lot of parties! [to maximize our exposure to good things(ex meeting a lovely lady) in all areas where the risks are minimized (getting rejected by said lovely lady)]
@ilikemitchhedberg
@ilikemitchhedberg 11 лет назад
You can fragilize my portfolio But you can't fragilize my swag.
@moonoggin
@moonoggin 8 лет назад
Brilliant author !!
@FlyTrue
@FlyTrue 4 года назад
this lecture?? at the woodrow wilson school of all places?!?!? brilliance
@ericencina209
@ericencina209 Год назад
Very interesting lecture to take note of.
@3bbblz
@3bbblz 11 лет назад
15:00 truly profound
@IsaacWendt
@IsaacWendt Год назад
You can't predict what will be added in the future but are can predict what will be removed. The fragil will be removed.
@ethanoyamawang
@ethanoyamawang 11 лет назад
That Q&A with junior economist is really cool answer. He was saying anything from Samuelson are wrong !I guess he is in a different camp quant.
@greencol
@greencol 11 лет назад
Regarding the question at the end - fractional reserve banking does not provide a mechanism for banks to loan more money than they have. The unlimited multiplier comes from the unlimited number of times the money can be re-deposited (in another bank) and lent again. Hence the question is based on an incorrect model of fractional reserve banking. In reality the multiple is limited by a bank reserve requirement, and the relationship works out at multiplier = 1 / reserve-requirement. E.g. 10%=>10x
@AnyaChuri
@AnyaChuri 6 лет назад
Haha! "Too bad ! I hoped for a little randomness!" Love ya!
@richardcollins9060
@richardcollins9060 Год назад
"that which is falling should be pushed" Neitzsche
@malcolmbryant
@malcolmbryant 11 лет назад
I suspect such an ability may be the hallmark of a very fine mind indeed.
@SOSTacoJohnson
@SOSTacoJohnson 12 лет назад
#winning so fucking hard since December 31st, 2011...
@paullubitz6190
@paullubitz6190 11 лет назад
Yes, Brilliant! Almost in passing Nassim said, "Governments don't repay their debts." Since I am American and weak on history, I would like to know: 1. Is this a universal truth through time? 2. Does he say this because historically have inflated their way out thereby only partially repaying. 3. Have they mostly just defaulted? Finally.... 4. What has been the result of governments NOT repaying?
@vandpiben
@vandpiben 7 лет назад
All past fiat currencies has gone to zero and yes it will eventually cause deflation and then hyperinflation.
@aakashsahu6838
@aakashsahu6838 Год назад
Common man end up paying taxes and more taxes. That's y muscle power rules the world Democracy is biggest lie and banks are biggest thiefs
@AnyaChuri
@AnyaChuri 6 лет назад
The title changed from the 'noun' to the 'adjective'.
@CJinsoo
@CJinsoo 3 года назад
At 1:03:16 prediction on Economics that survive and go bust: maybe Austrian Economics will be given its due credit in the future?
@somor98
@somor98 10 лет назад
so does Keynes..
@requiemforamerica8432
@requiemforamerica8432 11 лет назад
for 4) the worse problem would be if the government tries to repay via money printing and inflation imho - that would exacerbate the problem and make the conditions even worse - better to just default and reorganize your finances at the earliest possible date - but it's almost impossible for huge governments to take this road, since it's been lying to the public about the true state of affairs for years, and it's easier and politically more advantageous for the politicians to print more $
@MrDarren1972
@MrDarren1972 9 лет назад
Skin in the game.
@gwho
@gwho 8 лет назад
ironic, coming from a school named after the man who instituted the institution of theft of 1913
@Killuminatismd
@Killuminatismd 11 лет назад
economies of scale...you see it everywhere but in the data..HAHAHAH Nassims hillarious
@algerc.5492
@algerc.5492 4 года назад
56:10 minutes... "I am not against fractional reserve banking"??? Counterfeiting is good? Fiat money is good, I never knew, Thanks for the tip.
@dmaverickmultiverseonearth2403
@dmaverickmultiverseonearth2403 3 года назад
hulk is the opposite of fragile according to your argument
@KrishnaHarish
@KrishnaHarish 6 лет назад
👌🏼👍🏼
@SOSTacoJohnson
@SOSTacoJohnson 12 лет назад
& to own the guy who said, fractional reserve banking is good: You don't need to have a lot of lending to fuel technology and therefore the economy, b/c frankly there aren't that many smart people who would build useful technology! The multitude of wealth used for loans? FAILS to return a profit, and generally is used for trivial crap! The way you suggest, we should control + P forever until the slaves become peasants and we have to institute a new currency! Owned.
@SOSTacoJohnson
@SOSTacoJohnson 12 лет назад
nuclear fusion?
@abhishekKumar-zb1xb
@abhishekKumar-zb1xb 5 лет назад
learnt till 34.00
@suitabledude
@suitabledude 12 лет назад
Hayek survives!
@hos42
@hos42 4 года назад
1:02:28 MFW when Nassim bashes economists 😍
@ethanoyamawang
@ethanoyamawang 11 лет назад
o boy sure taleb put some weight in this video!
@Black12Phoenix
@Black12Phoenix 5 лет назад
F * C K! in every single presentation of NNTaleb, the audio is shit! For God's sake, I want to listen to the man, not become deaf
@ilikemitchhedberg
@ilikemitchhedberg 11 лет назад
1. yes 2. yes 3. yes 4. hyperinflation, or, in other words, complete and absolute collapse.
@yulianarennatiliaan1684
@yulianarennatiliaan1684 7 лет назад
William Lenon
@SOSTacoJohnson
@SOSTacoJohnson 12 лет назад
exothermic reactions?
@TanerNilluhktaf
@TanerNilluhktaf 3 года назад
Lenin?
@johnyoung5392
@johnyoung5392 2 года назад
Opportunistic seems close to anti-fragile.
@q44444q
@q44444q 4 года назад
Has he never heard of the field of robust optimization? Or stochastic optimization? They essentially do exactly what he's saying at the end: perturb parameters and find the set of parameters that minimizes the possible worst-case scenario. You can still argue that there are things exogenous to the model, but that's largely irrelevant, because he agrees with some models that could have the same issue (e.g., many in classical econ). I have yet to see anything *really* new from Taleb, but I haven't read his technical papers yet. I'm looking forward to them. Antifragility is a cool concept, but I'm reluctant to commit time to learn about it, because I'm worried it's all bullshit. Let me explain: As anyone can tell, his presentation and argumentation style is dismissive, vague, and opaque. I've seen professors who conduct themselves in such a way, and I often find that they act in this way to prevent anyone from realizing that they're just spouting bullshit. If this all ends up being charlatanism, my time reading and studying antifragility will have been wasted. I don't want to risk that, so I don't delve into his work. Honestly, if he were better about communicating his ideas, maybe I'd feel better about exploring them :/ That said, I largely agree with his overall goals: the financial system is horrible, incentives are misaligned all over, and things must change. But instead of being so completely critical, he should really offer some real solutions. That's the hallmark of a great researcher/philosopher. Anyone can criticize. It takes work to construct. I look forward to a serious, approachable talk explaining the technical details of antifragility.
@chiaroscuro1233
@chiaroscuro1233 4 года назад
He has technical papers
@q44444q
@q44444q 4 года назад
@@chiaroscuro1233 Then where are the technical talks? All academics give technical talks on their technical papers to interest and explain concepts to the wider community. I haven't seen any from Taleb though.
@chiaroscuro1233
@chiaroscuro1233 4 года назад
@@q44444q 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♀️
@q44444q
@q44444q 4 года назад
@@chiaroscuro1233 To clarify, I know about the technical papers (they're on his site and published in journals). But I'm not going to read them if he does not give a real technical talk on them and their realistic applications. This video (and the others I've seen) are not technical at all. They are for laypeople. He has 10s of papers and I (and most non-laypeople) have limited time. He needs to condense the material into some public lectures if he seriously wants to change the state of statistics and economics. There is a parallel to be drawn here with Mochizuki's IUT. Though Taleb's work is much clearer, it still won't be widely understood if he does not lecture publicly about it. Most researchers do not have such grand aims; Taleb seems to, but does not act completely in accordance with them, and that is why I'm complaining.
@chiaroscuro1233
@chiaroscuro1233 4 года назад
@@q44444q he has twitter, email, etc. Complain to him not to a yt comment section
@abrek421
@abrek421 9 лет назад
nikolas abiii seni türkiyeye de bekliyoruz.şu vahşi raslantısallık olayını birde bize anlat.hayatımıza biraz daha kürtosis katalım .
@SOSTacoJohnson
@SOSTacoJohnson 12 лет назад
& if you argue that rips in dimensional fabric, possibly caused by black holes, result in the expansion of new universes? Then is not the chaos, destruction, and titanic amount of energy that is thrown into a black hole's event horizon not the epitome of such a word? & perhaps we could call the Universe that is created from the black hole the benefactor of an anti-fragile event horizon? Perhaps then, Universes are the world to describe anti-fragility?
@tycolim6392
@tycolim6392 3 года назад
rap
@instentheos8754
@instentheos8754 8 лет назад
Masochistic????
@a1qattan
@a1qattan 9 лет назад
The introducer are awful
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