Nate Silver on the Art and Science of Prediction 

Great talk and especially great Q&A. Feels good to be on the intellectual side of youtube.

My interest ebbed and flowed during this video. Over all I like it.

22;40--Bayes' theorem and "sexy" should never be in the same sentence:)

Posting this in 2017: lol.

You would think that someone who talks about the art and science of prediction might actually have predicted some elections correctly.

Nate, is there any science of prediction in your hairstyle?

Very interesting talk and entertaining guy. The interviewer had a weird approach to the questions though, why not answer them one at a time when you still remember them correctly?

Dig, I really like reading about Science, Geography, History and Atheism, but can anyone tell me why parents should save their hard earned money to send their children to college,who will graduate into a Secular Nation that have landed men on the moon, but the Nation has turned into the most religious Secular Country in the world, WTF !

I thought he shout to fame through his baseball player value predictions

Let's cut to the chase. Only Quantum•Chronograph could have forecast that Sheryl Sandberg's husband, Dave Goldberg born 10/2/67 had a personal "probability wave" of suffering a tragic sports accident at a "New" name location (Nuevo Vallarta), coordinates 20° N, 105° W on May 1, 2015, at age 47.

so.....it's ok to be biased as long as you aren't fox news? Weird message.

I predict mayhem and upheaval..... what does Nate say?

hi

so... how did he do in 2012 election?... and other important events? sorry, the guy has the affect and schtick of a huckster (who maybe just got lucky in 2008).

Fast forward August 15 we now see Nate Silver's true colors: a con. Nate Silver got way too much credit for "The Signal and the Noise." In it he did not espouse any insights not already known, he use good tools and used them well and his predictions turned out to be right, which happens even when guaranteeing such a result consistently is not yet possible. Nonetheless he has risen to cult-like status. This is because the mass of people praying at his feet have zilch mathematical skills and believe anyone who does must be a magical creature. That's not bad enough, Nate Silver has taken this band wagon on the road, turned it into a snake oil operation, and working hard to cash in on his divinity status. He's not only unable to produce new mathematics, he's morally deficient. So next he's using the platform that has only swollen up with credulous zombies and is using to do analytics, but for political purpose. He's become a pundit and as such he's pandering to the donor class. Big surprise. So it's not a surprise that on the wake of the progressive surge in the this week's primaries, he's blundering forth his non-mathematical analysis that the progressive are not doing well. To be precise, Nate Silver stated that Justice Democrats "had the worst win rates." In other words, he couched his conclusion in mathematical terms "win rates" so that his base would be impressed and defer to him. Win rates? WTF is that? . . .and more importantly who cares? We all know discrete results do not a trend make no matter how hard Nate Silver would like to extrapolate some self-serving meaning out of them. Shameful. Nate Silver is going to give Data Analytics a bad name and those who care about these things are here warned of the need to establish standards before their beloved and rather new discipline is taken over by con artists.

balding