Naval war is back after grain deal collapse 

Russias war effort is like the scene in "Star Wars: A New Hope" when Han Solo charges screaming into a Hangar full of Storm troopers and then comes running the other way screaming, chased by all of the stormtroopers.

Kerch bridge bombing is ideologically important for Ukraine. Apart from its logistical value, it's THE holy trinity of must-hit targets, along with moscow and Nordstream. The fact we managed to hit all THREE, multiple times, is just... I'm wet. It's sexually pleasing for Ukrainians to see every time a russian invader is forced to flee Crimea, when muscovites cry scared, and when gas doesn't flow to Germany yet. The NS pipelines built were the biggest loss for Ukraine in nearest history. Destroying them cannot be overstated. Now only thing that remains is russian tanker fleet and oil pipes (most of which we control) to completely stop them from selling fossil fuels.

If that was the case Ukraine would have moved more air defenses to Odessa prior to the bridge attack

@@ArmySigs They don't have enough to do that. If they do, Kyiv gets hit instead

Seriously. You think Putin who has outsmarted the West at every new development is now so unstable because of his success that he has been provoked to make a decision? You need to read what he has written (written when Biden can barely stay awake) Putin "Many have probably heard of the so-called “grain deal,” whose initial purpose was to ensure global food security, reduce the threat of hunger and help the poorest countries of Africa, Asia and Latin America - the reason why Russia undertook the obligation to facilitate its implementation in the first place. This “deal,” however, while it was publicly advertised by the West as a gesture of goodwill that benefited Africa, has in fact been shamelessly used solely for the enrichment of large US and European businesses that exported and resold grain from Ukraine. Judge for yourselves: in almost a year, a total of 32.8 million tonnes of supplies were exported from Ukraine under the “deal,” with over 70 percent of the exports ending up in high- and upper-middle-income countries, including in the European Union, whereas such countries as Ethiopia, Sudan and Somalia, as well as Yemen and Afghanistan, received less than 3 percent of the supplies, i.e. less than one million tonnes. In the meantime, none of the “deal” provisions relating to the exemption from sanctions of Russian grain and fertiliser exports to world markets, were fulfilled. Moreover, barriers have been mounted even to our attempts to supply free of charge mineral fertilisers to the poorest countries in need. Of 262,000 tonnes of goods blocked in European ports, only two shipments were delivered - one of 20,000 tonnes to Malawi and one of 34,000 tonnes to Kenya. The rest is still unscrupulously held by the Europeans. And this is a purely humanitarian initiative we are talking about, which should be exempt from any sanctions as such. Considering all these facts, there is no longer any use in continuing the “grain deal” as it has failed to serve its original humanitarian purpose. We argued against further extending the “deal,” which terminated as of July 18" Viewing Putin as irrational makes us into fools If we cant respect the calculated decision making of our enemies, we will never win. This is not a game of calling names ...Putin is serious in what he does at every step and turn.

They started the play with the Azov officers. It's a game they played hand in hand with Erdogan. And he has loved it.

"We are Doomed'' - private frazer (Dads Army)

There is this saying, "in war, you don't want to give problems to your enemy, you want to give them dilemmas" (problems have solutions, dilemmas don't)

Well the Ukrainians know the ruZZians better than anyone.

Only good options for Ukraine!!! 🇺🇦 Ukraine is winning!!! 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦

Ukraine is going from good to better!!! 🇺🇦 Ukraine! Freedom! Democracy!!! 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦

Anders is the only Naval War expert I've seen comment on this war on mass media / social media. His unique background and insight, even if just an initial hypothesis, is therefore much valuable.

I wouldn't at all be surprised if Russia fell for another trap. By their own reckoning this misadventure was meant to be over in days. But all the while the Ukrainians have shown themselves to be much smarter than the Russians and done much more with less than anyone could have imagined. The Russians, in most instances, are their own worst enemy.

​@glennvanhoecke7798 Your uncalled for, unjustified, juvenile insult that has no connection to what anyone has said suggests that you have very serious problems. Strongly recommend that you stay offline until you take a good look at yourself and fix that. Because right now you're just making yourself look juvenile, immature, crude and nasty.

Its different because its drivel. You agree with it because you believe the propaganda.

He's a fool. The entire rationale of the video is nonsense and is just wishful thinking. To win a war you need realists not fantasists.

Let it swing

According To US Department of Agriculture report, global production of wheat in 2022 was about 780 million metric ton. Ukraine wheat production was about 20 million or about 2,5% of world production. Whereas Russia wheat production in 2022 was about 91 million ton or 12% global production. Russia has more than enough wheat to replace Ukraine wheat...

Blockade highlights Russian willingness to use grain to blackmail and underlines the desirability of Ukraine getting back Crimea to secure it's own grain shipping route. From a world perspective this makes Russia look bad, assuming that bothers them.

Unfortunately it doesn't seem like those most likely to suffer due to grain shortages are going to stop supporting Russia. Their politicians have already been bought.

​@@gambaridup Are you saying Russia didn't know what to do with 20 mln t? 20+% of its production ??

@@gambaridupthat does not make it okay. It’s bad news for the world but good for Russia - unfortunately. Russia will have more influence on grain prices. Not good at all!

It looks from holidays 😅 even more appropriated!

Ukraina! Økonomisk styrke! Frihet! Kornavtalen! Demokrati! 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦

for noe drit, snakker ikke om hvordan avtalen påvirker de fattiges mat sikkerhet med ett eneste ord.. som om ukraina er alt alle bryr seg om.

@@NTravellerWhat! A strange! Post! 😂🤦🏼‍♂️

Lol "senile" Biden strikes again

@@nfrl-hs2ly Probably better than "loose cannon" Trump

@@nfrl-hs2ly and the American taxpayers are once again on the hook

Another way to look at it is that Turkey risked becoming a pariah if it continued its neutral/friendly stance towards Russia.

@@timpetersen11 Loose cannon is still a cannon... at least it isn't a half dead/unedible sack of meat. Russia attacked under Biden and not Trump for a reason ;)

I hope what your reading about the bridge is true as it would mean that the Ukranians are super clever strategists but I suspect they had intel that Russia was pulling out so they thought we might as well blow the bridge to hurt the Russians replenishment as well as Putin pride.

Don’t encourage him , this is pure garbage

This is not analysis it's speculation and opinion. He says it himself. 11:14

@@YouKnowItMang well he states that his views are just that his views and should not be taken as facts. Which is a obvious. Nevertheless, they are the result of a analysis of the known facts. This is not speculation. He still may be wrong but his reasoning still holds.

@@maxdelaserna9540 False. Too many of his claims are made on speculations or opinions not facts. Its a very mixed bag. He doesn't present it as fact but reasoning only holds in a speculative sense. You also contradicted yourself. If his views "Should not be taken as facts" then its literally speculation LOL

Even if they are complete nonsense like in this video. I don't know the regional political landscape, but I DO know that no merchant ships will sail into a warzone if they are being threatened by both sides. There will be no grain ships going to Odessa until russia backs down OR NATO protects them. And NATO direct intervention will be the absolute brink of a nuclear WW III. Since we won't let Ukraine use long range NATO weapons in Russia there is no way NATO will send a navy into the Black sea.

Puck should dig a hole for himself and spend the next two months in it.

Tilbaketrekking av kornavtalen og importforbudet for ukrainsk korn av Polen, Slovakia, Ungarn, Romania og Bulgaria er utmerkede nyheter for ukrainsk økonomi! 🇺🇦 Ukraina kommer til å vinne!!! 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦

@@m93p "Puck" has won this war, already. Why? Ukrainians has done everything NATO asked them to do. Result? More than 300000 death Ukrainian soldiers, 20 milion displaced and homeless people, who knows how many wounded Ukrainians, and lost teritory. We, NATO countries, has disintegrated one whole country and nation. Again. And we continue to babble about grain deal??? We shoud report ourselves to Hague tribunal for crimes against humanity in Afganistan, Iraq, Libia, Ukraine, etc, and discus our own atrocities. But, it is easier to be cynic, and grind grain.

@@m93pRussian bot

Thanks. Glad to hear that.

Well, western countries could offer to subsidize insurance?

The bombing of the harbor facilities renders the question of insurance rather moot, right? If the ability of loading ships is not possible, then there will be no need for insurance. You are correct, though, the rates will be prohibitive. But this works for Russian grain shipments also. And remember, most of the insurers are western companies.

Any interested state could jump in and subside the insurance, communicate this openly and align that with UN Food program's efforts to ease the situation. And now wait for Russian reaction. The political price of a sunken ship will be enormous.

@@peterm.2385 Assuming you have ships going on suicide mission what destroyed Ukrainian port will they arrive in?

@@Grumpyoldman037That’s the idea. Ruzzia is hitting Odesa because there’s less political cost than sinking merchant ships. If Ruzzia starts doing that, the fence-sitters in Africa and India will turn against it. The flaw in this is that the damage to the port infrastructure can be repaired relatively quickly, and now Odesa will receive a lot more air defenses, which are currently on the way. Ruzzia is just hoping that the damage to perception is already done. My opinion is that Turkey should just escort grain ships anyway, and that Putin isn’t stupid enough to attack. Turkey’a Navy greatly outclasses the Ruzzian Black Sea and Mediterranean assets, and has backup if Ruzzia tries to move other assets to the Med to threaten it. Ruzzia will not risk a shooting war with NATO, no matter how much Putin bluffs. But the lowest risk approach is for Turkey to just close the Bosporus Straits to any Ruzzian ship except for food ships. No oil or anything else. Ruzzia would rejoin the grain deal within a day.

Did you think Russia is governed by a bunch of idiots? The idiots are from Ukraine as they were earning money from the grain deal, but they decided to attack Crimea and obviously, the Russians had enough of Ukraine's lack of fulfillment of the agreement, not to mention NATO. They were too smart for their own good.

Why would Turkey risk direct Turkish and NATO involvement in this war though? It makes little sense. Never interrupt your enemy when they’re making a mistake.

Turkey and the US said that they are not going to deploy their warships to protect cargo vessels. Russia is in an angry and pugnacious mood, and as much as the US may provide weapons to Ukraine, it is very careful to not cross certain lines.

​@@MusicalMemeologyinteresting point. Until now I was not aware Russia did not have the power capabilities to enforce the blockade. It seems horrible to think about grain merchant ships being sunk. All the death and destruction Russia's insanity is causing.

​@@MusicalMemeologybecause Turkey would profit from an escalation. They could force Russia to make concessions in the Türkise Syrian border.

@@dimbwemazala8978 Pootin has already shown that he is pluffing. NATO only has to raise and he will fold and take a flight out of Moscow.

Wasn't the first Kerch Bridge attack on Putins Birthday? Will be interesting to see what they have as a gift this year.

I think theyre trying to sink it. Carfull not to draw links that probably dont exist.

@@tjpld It was intended to afaik, but happened technically on the next day. But yes, AFU / SBU seems to be very deliberately use the bridge if they want it to be personal message

The US blockaded Cuba and they weren't at war.

Dont think Russia is bothered about the definitions

​@@petefrys545Well, there not being a legal war declared means for example that other countries can 'escort' (or just sail alongside) ukrainian cargo vessels without participating in any ongoing conflict. Meaning russia cant fire at them. See turkeys assurance that they would protect grain vessels for example. Russia can do little about it other than declare war. And then we have article 5

Only difference is who is giving insurance for Russian ships??😮

@@claus-not-santaSame companies that insure Ukraine’s ships.

@@grahamstrouse1165 I did not know Russian State was doing this for Ukraine!