Appreciate that this is just to demonstrate how Xg can help spot opportunities, but may be a good idea to explain how/when to exit if the goal doesn't come. Next video should be on when to Lay away teams leading by 2 (or more) goals when home team has a greater Xg. There were a few of these just this past weekend and the momentum can soon shift in these scenarios 😉
Great video mae - got another £100 profit today - I had multiplle big losses - Brighton v Wolves I had this option of O1.5goals with 40 on BUT Nothing and let it go through to lose all - XG states 2 /3 missed goals. Also Dondercht in Dutch 3rd league thrashed 5.1 even level XG...... And many more and loosing 100! Then Napoli v Inter in cup final - Napoli had 10 men last 10 mins and I put on Inter to win towards the end as the XG shot up to 1.9 xg! Good profit - best one was Leicster v ipswich and Cape Verde v Egypt both got £200 profit on this!! Late goal for win for egypt cashed out and then home team drew last seconds. Ipswich equalised to make some money £17 on for £120!! Just so good stuff is this - Please do more info on XG espcially when to exit potentially if this goes bad do you go the 100% loss or to minizise? as you never know in Footy!
just traded on the Brighton v Wolves game the XG 50th minute was 1.29 and 1.41 the score was 0-0-0 at the time The XG Calculator predicts 3 goals ,so i drip staked over 1.5 goals starting at 2,10 , final score 0-0 the law of sod i suppose ,
Good question and the short answer is no it doesn't. It focuses only on the xG which means there is no "bias" from estimating team strength or looking at who is the favourite or not, since the idea is to find "mistakes" in the market. This helps us to see the truly good opportunities since it is telling us who is the stronger team in the actual match in front of us which is what is most important.
Would you be able to explain at 15:30. Home Goals overdue is 1, Away Goals overdue is 0, but total goals overdue is 2 especially when the xG score is only 1-0. Also what does xSxG mean?
Cheers for the video, i am confused why the spreadsheet thinks the Preston v Watford game will end in a draw when it seems quite clear it should be a home win??
Good point there, and this is all down to how xG is truly calculated and translates into goals. This is covered inside the course but the short answer is that just because a team is ahead on xG doesn't mean we should expect them to be ahead in the match.
ive tried a few of these at half time, but unfortunately the flow of the game changes in the second half and the XG doesn't seem to continue with a consistent stream, what happens if the XG reaches say 2.0 by half time, but 2.8 by full time?
Much of how you handle situations like that depends on your strategy. If the flow changes you can exit the trade to cut your losses, if it maintains you can keep your trade going, if it keeps increasing you can increase your stakes further and be aggressive. Being dynamic in your trading style is one of the pieces of the puzzle.
This would depend on how the match is developing. If the xG is not continuing to increase in the second half then you could choose to exit as maybe the match has turned. But if it carries on, then you are better off being aggressive and adding to your position.
It is possible yes but the idea with splitting the stake is to ensure you are in a profitable position after the goal. If you put it all in at once you might be in a negative even after a goal and then needing another goal. Pros and cons to both approaches.
In recent videos, you keep showing us the XG from flashscores, but then provide no detail on how to calculate the number of expected goals from the two xG values. Any benefit from these videos breaks down at that point.
We go into further detail about how to do calculations and intrepret all of this inside the program. We are limited in what we can reveal for free on RU-vid.
b365 and flashscore is different, I've noticed they use different xG data, b365 seems to be a bit more stringent, flashscore is a bit more "loose", but I don't know which one is more 'accurate' @@SportsTradingLife
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