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"Next 12 Months Looks Nasty..." Mark Bouris & Gemma Dale 2 

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Gemma Dales returns to the Property Insights podcast to discuss the outlook for the economy and overall sentiment of Australian consumers.
Gemma is the Director of SMSF and Investor Behaviour at nabtrade, and a regular market and finance commentator on Your Money, Sky Business, featured on Sunrise, AFR, ABC TV and Radio, Channel Ten and other media. She is also the host of Your Wealth podcast, a weekly podcast for investors, featuring insights and updates from market and finance experts across a range of topics.

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30 сен 2024

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Комментарии : 113   
@Ragnar6000
@Ragnar6000 Год назад
Interest rates should never have been bellow 5% and actaully 7-8% is healthy!
@scottcox8559
@scottcox8559 Год назад
Housing has gone from a basic human right to an asset class for the rich. I just sold my brick prison and bought a caravan. Life has never been better. Now NAB doesn't get my 2.5k a month, and I get to use it to experience life.
@sumeriansumer1622
@sumeriansumer1622 Год назад
Do you live in a caravan park now?
@vittorianesse
@vittorianesse Год назад
Totally agree. I decided to get out of the property monopoly mindset too. Now I have money to actually live life instead of living hand to mouth until I’m dead.
@myday2704
@myday2704 Год назад
I love this! Good on you, get out there and live your life to the max. Many dream of this opportunity.
@scottcox8559
@scottcox8559 Год назад
@sumeriansumer1622 not so much caravan parks. More farm stays and low-cost camp sites, our van is set up for free camping.
@scottcox8559
@scottcox8559 Год назад
@Joey185 you have no idea what my circumstances are champ. Hate the game, not the player.
@richardminhle
@richardminhle Год назад
Inflation is about to blow out again led by Oil price surge. It means rates will continue to climb. Do not plan ahead based on an idea that this level of rates is the top. Our largest trading partner, properties backers, China, is also in a deep recession.
@vittorianesse
@vittorianesse Год назад
Totally agree. 7% inflation is unsustainable for another 12 months so rates will simply have to climb.
@myday2704
@myday2704 Год назад
I was thinking about this yesterday when I noticed the increased petrol prices. Do you think this increase is from Saudi cutting production in July or something else?
@turbostyler
@turbostyler Год назад
@@myday2704 There are two major factors that influence petrol prices in Australia. One is the crude oil price which the Saudi's control. The second is Australia's interest rate compared to the US interest rate which dictates our exchange rate to US dollars. Because oil is purchased in USD, if our AUD is weak compared to the USD we're going to wear that cost even harder than the Saudi increase alone. The thing that influences the AUD/USD exchange the most is the interest rate differential between the US and Australia. They have higher interest rates making their bonds more attractive for capital, which means the Australian central bank will need to raise rates to avoid a further decline in the value of the AUD comparatively to the USD and to avoid importing inflation.
@littereverywhere
@littereverywhere Год назад
Why is immigration allowed whilst Australian people are experiencing homelessness? Are those responsible for issuing visas required to think of people or the market? Or not to think?
@andrewkerr5296
@andrewkerr5296 Год назад
Homelessnes is caused by Red Tape & Nimbyism nothing to do with Immigration at all Do you still want your Freebies from Government? Then Immigration is needed. If Australian's weren't so Entilted & didn't vote for Free Stuff, Immigration would not be needed to boost GDP
@mauricemky
@mauricemky Год назад
It's a good question. Immigration is important when we think about bringing in skilled workers to jobs where we have shortages. As much as homelessness is an important issue to tackle, we unfortunately aren't guaranteed that those experiencing such turmoil can complete the skilled work required, not without the training and time required to learn the trade. With these skills deficits not being solved via immigration, then the inflation problem continues. This is by rising costs passed on by businesses charging more to pay their local skilled workers for the work to be completed and if they don't then the workers will go elsewhere as they are in demand.
@mauricemky
@mauricemky Год назад
Mind you, there are several more dimensions to this, but I guess the angle is that no immigration is not the solve for homelessness
@WOODZY_
@WOODZY_ Год назад
Talk to the Global elites The true “puppet masters”
@omarkattab
@omarkattab Год назад
Thats the plan keep people on edge .
@d.j.z.j
@d.j.z.j Год назад
Middle class is getting killeddd. 2 kids and 1 income is 🔥. Everyone is feeling it for sure. Great episode
@johnny-yi2oi
@johnny-yi2oi Год назад
bang on.
@petebeaumont253
@petebeaumont253 Год назад
These rates aren't high. They only seem high because this country has allowed asset prices to go completely out of control in particular housing. I personally want a collapse because its the only way I'll ever own a home
@WOODZY_
@WOODZY_ Год назад
They won’t let it happen in the capital city’s otherwise they risk civil unrest It’s a big ponzie scheme. They’ll keep kick’n that rusty old can down the road
@aulzhoefer
@aulzhoefer Год назад
Keep waiting
@petebeaumont253
@petebeaumont253 Год назад
@@aulzhoefer no choice
@petrusweenink7138
@petrusweenink7138 Год назад
Over the governments dead body sadly.... But it will come but who knows when...... They will kick the can down the road as long as they can. It is a bubble but it will be prevented from bursting at all costs.
@cvarikos
@cvarikos Год назад
The rich 1% own 99% of the world's wealth .. remember this saying? Today, the rich 0.01% own 99.99% of the worlds wealth ... the gap keeps widening. This is now having a real effect on the average family like never before because there is heaps more competition for significantly less houses. The rich 0.01% aren't going to sell either, so they're always acquiring properties and leasing them. There are individuals that own ten's.. hundreds... properties - it's getting to a point where now it's forcing all house prices exponentially upwards. So given this, there is no normalising ... it's basically, either you have ridiculous help or not. BTW I don't know anyone that's mortgage free at 48 yrs of age - it's closer to 60 when redundancies/ inheritances kick in. The next generation have no chance in this country .. with this government. In Sydney, many people sit on their wealth ie. they have millions in equity but no cash to live their life. Basically the next generation are relying on them to eventually bail them out of trouble. For some people though, that older generation are prepared to die on that hill and not give their kids the help they need because the next gen are starting way behind ... and financially life is 3-4 times harder than ever. Things could get very messy for these families as the community spirit and helping each other has been washed down the gutter.
@HS-PGA
@HS-PGA Год назад
The concern is at the reset of every cycle the government introduces a new round of first home buyer . The issue this time is now they want to own part of it in shared equity . Democracy > Socialism > Communism we are on our way when government wants to own private assets it’s called collectivism
@leebay6093
@leebay6093 Год назад
💯
@vittorianesse
@vittorianesse Год назад
You mean like a monopoly? Like Wesfarmers?
@ichrisone
@ichrisone Год назад
Owning part of an asset that is going to decrease in value in real terms for 30 years is probably a good deal! Housing only goes up while 10 year interest yields decline (the last 40 years until 6 months ago).
@davincidribbler7427
@davincidribbler7427 Год назад
Good
@philmelb1022
@philmelb1022 Год назад
Normal rates are 5percent. On home loans.
@ivankjokjorovski1099
@ivankjokjorovski1099 Год назад
10% if we are in solid economy
@andrewkerr5296
@andrewkerr5296 Год назад
@@ivankjokjorovski1099 No one knows what the rate 'should' be because Market Discovery isn't allowed because no one is allowed to compete with the Central Bank. All I know is, Central Planners are always wrong
@DamienOBrien-i2c
@DamienOBrien-i2c Год назад
The Game is up .. Australia is heading for the pain many countries have been down the road
@williamcrossan9333
@williamcrossan9333 Год назад
My consumer confidence is low, but for a surprising reason: I'm seeing so much increasing wealth in Australia, that I'm worried about soon been the equivalent of a Bangladeshi wage earner trying to survive in Monaco.
@washout04
@washout04 Год назад
We all need to be very worried about this quickly rising inequality. It’s been bad for a while but it’s seemingly massively accelerating.
@nottenvironmental6208
@nottenvironmental6208 Год назад
Not just the biggest wealth transfer in history, also biggest transfer from young to old and from Australian's to foreign people. Policy of LNP and less but same Labor are designed to increase wealth inequality. Eventually, these parties will die or turn more autocratic if possible as the community realise we have been fleeced. Worst resource management possible just like current Bee management and climate management, doing the exact opposite of what is needed for improvement
@Burbs1976
@Burbs1976 Год назад
A lot of people are feeling the pinch, particularly the ones that have a 600k+ mortgage and a couple of vehicles that they are paying off. I guess they thought 2% interest rates were going to continue for 20 years. We have a 300k mortgage and earn pretty good money but we have noticed significant increases in food- I would say 20-30% higher. Combine that with an increase in fuel, insurance, utilities, labour costs etc, it starts to add up. And we are still on a fixed mortgage until July 2024! I would hate to be paying 700k at 6%
@chillisauce1708
@chillisauce1708 Год назад
Australia houses too expensive, debt is scary for me, try to reduce it as much as I can down to every $1.
@aulzhoefer
@aulzhoefer Год назад
Offer the over 50s a 5 year retirement bond at 8%… it will suck out the liquidity
@Shallowchal
@Shallowchal Год назад
Brilliant idea but don’t expect anything this creative from our elected leaders.
@deepfuture7409
@deepfuture7409 Год назад
Are you taking in consideration tsunami of people loosing jobs because of massive AI introduction in 2025. AI creators are urging people to prepare themselves for 20%-40% white collar workers will be replaced by someone who will be operating AI and will increase productivity which is very low in Australia.
@limlwl
@limlwl Год назад
We need to raise rates to 10% because property speculation has been rampant. More needs to go into investing in businesses.. not properties.
@theycallmebruce69
@theycallmebruce69 Год назад
I love these interviews , but it is laughable to hear interest rate predictions considering what has happened in the past 2 years.
@SandraYoung-kh7ic
@SandraYoung-kh7ic Год назад
Can you please report on the effects of these two issues impacting property prices and the housing crises. Rise of airbnb and those properties being taken off the market for long-term rentals. Foreign purchases of australian houses and why are so many foreigners permitted to purchase australian property. Thanks
@leonie563
@leonie563 Год назад
So if consumer confidence is lower than the GFC and Covid crisis, what does that say about bots on sharemarket and why they aren't ploughing into housing as flight to safety? What explains pouring cash into Superannuation then? If they know or don't know that Annuity is trending?
@williamcrossan9333
@williamcrossan9333 Год назад
Aussies shares are already in the toilet. The ASX All Ords was at 6800 in Nov 2007. Today it's 10% higher. Some property markets are up 200% in that time.
@leonie563
@leonie563 Год назад
@@williamcrossan9333 we need a conversation about yields and profits in Australia. And a locked gate on more taxpayer funding after age 80. Overnight it will force estate planning.
@ichrisone
@ichrisone Год назад
Be interested to know how they “aggregate” consumer confidence data. Is it an average? A mean? A sample of a thousand people like election polling?
@LibertyDownUnder
@LibertyDownUnder Год назад
I found this discussion quite short sighted and shallow. I'm not sure what this wanting to go 'back to normal' crap is about. Is the so called 'normal' where housing becomes less affordable every year? And should we be cheering on the RBA when it cuts rates and makes this problem worse? We need a permanent reversal of the RBA's charter to curb housing process and the easy credit it issues every year. It's not that complicated, we just need a STABLE amount of currency in the system, like we had all the way from 1945 to 1970. In this period there were no housing affordability problems AND no unemployment.
@nottenvironmental6208
@nottenvironmental6208 Год назад
Overall, shameful mismanagement of Australian resources, selling our values off cheaply to be personally advantaged. I assume LNP hate everyday Aussie's when looking at the policy and outcomes from decades of poor performance.
@sramdavies405
@sramdavies405 Год назад
The current federal government are less than half way through the current electoral cycle and the fall in the standard of living is stark. Our current leader appeals to nuftys at one end and inner city elites at the other of the voter base. Middle Australia has been cast aside for an expensive Labor party social agenda coupled with little else than symbolism. The Whitlam government tried something similar and history reveals how that ended. I expect panic in backbenchers this time next year with Albanese who is a stalwart of Labors left replaced with a candidate who will appeal to the middle ground. And no....this will not be one of labours mean girls. This was tried with Gillard....abject failure. Its an even bet this will be a one term government. You heard it here first.
@voodoodoctor1435
@voodoodoctor1435 Год назад
they're not leaders they are public ''servants'' , we are the leaders . But you have highlighted what the problem is , slave minded people like yourself who think career politician criminals are your leader . No wonder we are in a mess , wake up Dumbo
@sebastianfinocchiaro870
@sebastianfinocchiaro870 Год назад
I hope you’re right
@ltsmash9544
@ltsmash9544 Год назад
Hey Mark, Big fan, love these interviews but with all love and respect….. please stop the waffling and let your guest speak and elaborate. We have someone who’s got so much insight and knowledge into some real data on the ground and I feel this was a wasted opportunity into learning more about what the market is doing and where we could be economically going. 😅
@victoriacorcoran1258
@victoriacorcoran1258 Год назад
Interest rates set on low drove the debt!
@vittorianesse
@vittorianesse Год назад
Every worker I speak with is doing the job of 2 ppl, are already exhausted and quiet-quitting. This is unsustainable.
@nevilleabbott2330
@nevilleabbott2330 Год назад
What??
@ichrisone
@ichrisone Год назад
Yah. Sucks hey. I see the same. Aussies are slaves.
@myday2704
@myday2704 Год назад
True. I'm seeing this too.
@chrisgregory4796
@chrisgregory4796 Год назад
Im a public servant and feel like I’m doing the work of at least 0.27 people. Its sustainable, for me.
@ashleypicot8412
@ashleypicot8412 Год назад
True. its not good for labour productivity
@JJ-mc8lu
@JJ-mc8lu Год назад
To me the next few years look great. The interest rates have risen and settled to their 30 year long term averages and hopefully we can look forward to some stability and calm in the economy with lower inflation. This will be a win for everyone.
@richardminhle
@richardminhle Год назад
Hope is not a plan
@raymondmurphy3213
@raymondmurphy3213 Год назад
Do you really think so mate i don’t know were you are coming from if you really think that there is no hope for you Diff
@ichrisone
@ichrisone Год назад
For sure! Well said
@larrydowling
@larrydowling Год назад
the next few years look great ,wtf wtf are you saying ,I'm guessing you don't borrow millions of dollars like all business people to grow ,geez i hate your comment so much.
@markovasil1608
@markovasil1608 Год назад
This is a joke statement right? Middle class will be decimated over the next 3-4 years
@ivica351
@ivica351 Год назад
All good if the planet is stable and nothing else comes out of left field 😁
@andrewkerr5296
@andrewkerr5296 Год назад
Uhhhh why would the Oldies slow their spending? We are talking about a Generation who VOTED unborn into Debt & Higher Taxes so they could consume. You think they really give a stuff about anybody else? There will NEVER be ANY Political will in this Country to free up the Economy to reduce the burden on Individuals as far as Bills, Housing, Cost of Living etc.... goes
@tiatamara11
@tiatamara11 Год назад
Too true.....Just a bunch of consumers following their fave sport.
@ariesred777
@ariesred777 Год назад
Lakeside Motel opposite REX Lismore Airport yesterday 24th Aug 23 quoted me $250 per night still (derilict looking from floods) BUT booked out til Christmas 2023 Same with Bounty Hotel Lismore booked out Also NO reception service Rates up service down
@dejank2635
@dejank2635 Год назад
Is inflation globally going through the roof because most governments have printed a lot of money during covid? What part did/does this play?
@jhykobz1yq
@jhykobz1yq Год назад
Peter Zeihan breaks this down really thoroughly and accurately as well as Nourel Roubini. This stuff above although useful is still sales/marketing driven content.
@voodoodoctor1435
@voodoodoctor1435 Год назад
no they printed money since 2008 GFC , and its the end of a debt based fiat monetary system . all the debt needs to be cleared and looks like they will inflate it away . usually fiat systems backed by nothing last 40 years on average we are over 50 years , we used to have silver in our coins , A 1966 50 cent coin that had a 1/3 of an oz of silver in it is now worth $15.00 . so if we kept silver in our currency we would be experiencing deflation , But the average sheep doesnt have a clue and just regurgitate the talking points of gov`t and Msm , thats why you thinks its just from printing money from covid and are clueless on how deep this mess is .
@ichrisone
@ichrisone Год назад
Plays the whole story. “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon” : Milton Friedman during the 1970s inflation storm.
@jhykobz1yq
@jhykobz1yq Год назад
@@ichrisone if you aren’t a billionaire and you’re quoting Friedman Gold help you
@paulh1523
@paulh1523 Год назад
Cue the inferno - rates going higher - property will be one big dumpster fire. 🔥
@larrydowling
@larrydowling Год назад
Mark Bouris should not care less after selling his business for more then half a billion dollars why would you worry ,i would be on a boat, sitting back in Monaco .
@davemangle6448
@davemangle6448 Год назад
One of the best level headed discussions I’ve heard for a long while
@williamcrossan9333
@williamcrossan9333 Год назад
2:15: Yep, consumer confidence is low, yet spending is still 30% higher than 2019. And houses are rising at 12 to 15% annualized pace. And luxury car sales are at record highs. I don't get it?
@NickTsk
@NickTsk Год назад
This obsession with purchasing the $800k property, to live in and pay off! Financial suicide. Here's a thought, rent it out and rent elsewhere! Cash flow, tax benefits, and put a stop on the toys! Cars, boats, flat screen's!!! The emotional attachment to property and having to live in it is just laughable! Maybe take up a 2nd job if you can't afford to live?
@myownperson8145
@myownperson8145 Год назад
It is not all boomers spending. There is a group of Gen Z's still at home that are out spending
@alvindeo9377
@alvindeo9377 Год назад
if you read progress and poverty by Henry George and follow the work from Fred Harrison you will understand why inequality continues to rise
@nico999r
@nico999r Год назад
3% - 3.5% official interest rate. 😂 Where will the AUD be 0.40 to USD. 😂
@Pl2045
@Pl2045 Год назад
Families I know are swapping to bush camping “free”
@MrTonifumi
@MrTonifumi Год назад
How is 4.1% high? It feels high because of debt.... but it ain't high.
@vittorianesse
@vittorianesse Год назад
Every rental I’ve inspected has a brand new renovation which means they took out a loan for it and interest rates are biting. Rent it out for a year to try to hold onto it.
@ichrisone
@ichrisone Год назад
Nice insight! What market you talking about? Observing similar trends. I left Sydney for Brisbane to halve my fixed costs. $240k and I couldnt afford to life in Sydney
@MariaWest-bt4mv
@MariaWest-bt4mv Год назад
Just a nother Wonderful informative interview, Md,Thank you and you lovly Guest, Gemma Dale,,🌱🌿⚘🦉
@littereverywhere
@littereverywhere Год назад
4% = extraordinarily high interest rates. You heard it from this guy.
@vmura
@vmura Год назад
Can anybody explain how banks are making record profits?
@ichrisone
@ichrisone Год назад
Yep. They haven’t taken loan losses for bad debts yet. They also need to make profits and hold them to build a buffer. Profits furthermore ensure they can obtain access to international capital markets. If US funding dried up because our banks weren’t paying a profit that beats inflation, then they’d lose at least 20% of their lending capacity. If they don’t make big profits they risk going under…
@pethaus7177
@pethaus7177 Год назад
Thank you for this insightful and metered interview its made me take a big breathe! All will be fine if we just hang in there, and hold the purse strings . ;)
@Grace-fp8fs
@Grace-fp8fs Год назад
Theres no chance of rates coming down unless we go into recession in which case keeping your job just to pay for dinner is your biggest concern forget the mortgage
@RexInOz
@RexInOz Год назад
Great episode
@saddysly8281
@saddysly8281 Год назад
At the point they need to reduce the rates, im seeing a dominoes effect being created and even the reduction in interest rates wont be able to stop it. leaders find it hard to make quick discions as they are data driven and terrible and predicting against, they will ultimately find it hard to reverse their desicions quick enough.
@williamcrossan9333
@williamcrossan9333 Год назад
22:10: The property markets are in fact rising at 10% plus right now. BNE and SYD are rising at 16% annualized pace right now.
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