I have a 3 player prop bet for Thursday night. I feel dever will put the pressure on play solid defense. So saints kicker blake grupe over 6.5 points. Bo nix over 18.5 completions and i will pair that with Courtland Sutton over 46.5 receiving yards.
This a really bad matchup for Sutton. NO's plays man coverage at a high rate (and will put CB1(Lattimore) on him) and he's more of a zone beater. I like Troy Franklin's over 17- a lot more. He has familiarity with Bo from Oregon, he's running a route on 75% of dropbacks, has the much more favorable matchup, and can hit that line on 1 catch.
With this game, the totals are too risky. I'm hoping for a Bo Nix anytime TD. This will be a good head to head rookie QB game. Rooting for the Broncos spread tho!
Warning for Javonte receiving yards: as a broncos fan, it's very obvious that Javonte has underperformed dramatically this season, and had a horrible game last week. Our promising rookie RB Audric Estime is also healthy off IR this week, so if Sean Payton actually does his job, especially when our QB is our leading rusher more often then not, he'd better give more action to some of the other talented running backs that seem to be better than Javonte has been thus far. Most broncos fans feel this way, so you should really feel more comfortable in my opinion with taking the under for his carries. I'd stray away from his over on anything really.
I got this feeling they come out and play with tempo. You know Payton has something up his sleeve and it worked late in the game vs LAC (I know it was vs shell D's). What do you think will be different in this one? I'm from Chi but my bestie is a Bronco fan so they are my second fav team.
Totally get people are out on Javonte but he is getting still getting targeted in the rec game and that is where saints have gotten gashed a bit. We arent saying he's going to tear it up Thursday night just that he should be able to surpass 17.5 rec yds.
I like both kickers. Both teams have strong red zone defense. As you mentioned, low game total. In a dome. I think Vegas thinks there's at least 2 for each kicker. And so do I. Happy Proppin' y'all.
Troy Franklin over 17- (that's where I got it and it's been going up) He's running routes at a high rate and used to take showers with Bo at Oregon (educated guess). Plus, Sutton will have Lattimore to deal with and there's a decent chance he hits the line with 1 catch. Bo + Rattler's rushing overs- Both D's play a lot of man, have good/great coverage grades, and blitz a lot. That's a good recipe for some long runs and young QB's tend to take off at the first sign of trouble. Also, the WR/CB matchups seem to favor the CB's in this one and that should lead to more QB rushes. I also had all 3 of your plays already in. They can't keep using 29 yr old Kamara for 20-28 touches a game or he will break, and I think they know as much. I think they mix it up more on RB rushes and save Kamara for the receiving game. That's also why I split his bet with his under rushes at 15-. Taysom coming back helps that theory too.
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How does everyone feel about Jamaal Williams over 8.5 rushing yards? Kamara has been hurt on his hand all week and I think they’ll give Williams a couple more touches to not overwork kamara on a short week where he’s the only weapon.
I think both rbs for receiving yards is a good bet. Great call fading Kamara on the ground. Anything he gets will be through the air. I bet against his combo line on Monday just from a data perspective. Not 1 rb has reached 111.5 combo yards against Denver. As always GLTA 🎉
@JacksonCarey-v6j Not sure how you thought this comment was useful. No shit. We can all see the questionable tag. If he doesn't play nothing lost. If he does play, he is not going to have a good game.
Yep. Denver defense is legit. Gotta think Sean Payton will be pulling out all the stops vs his old team. If anyone knows how to slow down Kamara its his old coach.
Didnt have a good game vs LAC but thats a top 10 defense in terms of rush defense DVOA. (7th). He put up 111 total yds vs LV the previous week. LV ranks 28th in rush defense DVO/21st in pass def DVOA vs RB while NO similarly ranks 26th in rush defense DVOA/ 26th in pass def DVOA vs RB. Understand the reluctance though considering his efficiency just hasnt really been there AND considering there could be a backfield shakeup on the horizon as Sean Payton has implied in comments.
Had a terrible game but I think he'll bounce back on another team. Recovering from ACL injury and missing time training camp with Rodgers hurt him a lot.
He put up 111 total yds vs LV the previous week. LV ranks 28th in rush defense DVO/21st in pass def DVOA vs RB while NO similarly ranks 26th in rush defense DVOA/ 26th in pass def DVOA vs RB. Understand the reluctance though considering his efficiency just hasnt really been there AND considering there could be a backfield shakeup on the horizon as Sean Payton has implied in comments.
