NO HOUSING MARKET CRASH COMING! (So They Say...) 

having equity means nothing if you cant qualify to borrow the money.

They should call these Idiot Loans.

Common Michael, Nick needs to pull his neck in. At 3.15 he says that there aren't people on RU-vid commenting that have significant amounts of cash on the sidelines waiting to invest. Well they do. Smart investors who understand leading indicators/precursors cashed up and exited late 2021, so they're sitting on cash. We could turn the tables on his statement and say 'People who profess to be subject matter experts in economics and investment wouldn't be doing walk and talk vlog on RU-vid'. The fact of the matter is that one mans ceiling is anothers floor in investing. Will property go down further? Very likely as any constraint on credit by definition means less $ chasing property. The real issue though is to consider by how much do you think property will go down by? Lots of investors have exited the market, hence the best time to buy can be RIGHT NOW if you're the only bidder at an auction of a distressed sale. Consider also in certain markets (Like here in the UK) there are far more people than houses, and everyone HAS to live somewhere... so if you buy a house below replacement value, then by implication you have a triple A investment so long as you are confident of not requiring access to its capital (Who want's to have a lot of $ at the banks which have a risk of collapse?). Like everything, the market overshoots, prices too high, then prices too low. If you can see and acquire something that is mispriced then eventually its $ at the bank. (NB: What will happen if the FED lowers the base rate? How would that affect institutional and regular investors? If you want to mitigate timing the market then $ cost average in over the next 18 months, buy a house every six months, you won't get the bottom but you'll get a good low average and most importantly get a chance to purchase property that would never come onto the market during an uptick, and most likely to rebound the most).

But this just started. It's going to take many years for this affect the market. I'm sure these guys will be saying the same thing 5 years from now.

It’s the last thing they can do to keep the party going.

Well, you have houses in the 50 to 60k in places like Western Pennsylvania or Ohio. People need to relocate to those affordable areas to buy a house. That's about it.

Exactly. I’m so sick of these smucks lying that demand is low because of high prices. Wrong! It’s low because rates are high.

You dont have to be a real estate guru to know that.

Because they no longer qualify

@@Kevinw4040it’s both, prices and rates are high, either rates come down to sustain prices, or prices come down to sustain rates, they’re two heads of the same coin. At the end of the day all people care about is their monthly payment.

Yes, this is rare in people.

It’s not hard.

Yes, timing things like this is tough. Especially with so much government intervention.

Imo, they want the consumer completely broken otherwise they lose out on total control. Seems like the American dream is only a dream these days

It doesn't happen overnight. Bernanke kept saying, thebans are good, there's no crash all good. People are struggling and banks are in trouble. One day its crashing, the day after that, no it not crashing. These guys too, ClICKBAIT.

My Favorite Fairy Tale is that EVERYBODY is broke as a joke except the wannabe real estate moguls on RU-vid. Some people will have to unload their homes but to think you are going to buy prime, beach front properties for pennies on the dollar I think you are delusional. Finally, who in their right mind would buy property in Frisco?

Yes, but that was the opposite of now. They were holding/trying to pay for a house worth half what they borrowed. Houses are now with twice what people paid yet they cannot sell because rent or own...they can't get back in.

Bad advice, wait till the rates hit 9 9 -11% then buy for cheap never by a house that is overvalued. Never go full r-ard!

@@williewill1237rates will not hit 9-11%.

​@@njerseydavidLOL good one

NOT going to happen

We saved money even when we only got ..06% interest . We just renewed some money and it’s 5%. It’s all how you look at it.

😂😂🤮🤮🤮

LOL YOU LIKE CLICKBAIT RU-vidRS.

@@andresmattos7541 I don’t know what you mean, what are clickbait RU-vidrs?

2 broken clocks

@@Coffeendonutsthere are right twice a day. You can least give them that.

My thoughts as well

@@MichaelBordenaroall that is going to do is push the cost from equity which at least is yours and you own to insurance and HoA cost. Your cost are the same and one is good for you. Clueless channel lol

How will it burst? Will all the ARM people used to buy homes with start making people go into default? 39% of people in the country own their home outright another 28% have low fixed rates with big money down. Tough to crash a market with fixed rates.

​@@ChrisJarzyk you're leaving out the two income trap consumer debt and student loans. They'll be forced to sell before forclosure.

@@jbeyers84 you can keep saying it but a crazy isn’t coming. Quick stats 39% of people in the country own their home outright, 28% have 50% equity on low fixed rates with lots of money down. This isn’t 2007, the kid in the video is a clickbait king he has been calling for a crash for 3 plus years and continues to push it back. You know a crash isn’t happening.

And when rates drop, and they won’t drop fast, they will have to bring a lot of cash to the table because the price they bought it for has crashed. They’ll have to stay married to the rate and the home. Or sell the home at a loss.

Ok-!!! Answer the following question-???🤔.. Whom will have the funds to purchase those lower cost mortgage payments-? If they can't afford it now-???

Which town do you live in?

@@marinawong9662 Houston suburb.

Bidenomics is kicking in.

@@legendbe2023. They aren’t

You don't mean the C Word do you?

Colombians still have to insure and pay HOA fees on their crappy condos

Bingo!

Oh yeah, they are called Blackrock which China owns most of the stock. They have over 30 billion just waiting for the picking. They will rent the home back to the person they got it from.

China is most likely to sell property then keep on holding it the country is full of crap homes and allot of high unemployment. 8 million business closings.

While the data makes for interesting commentary, it means very little. Until you see everyone piling in because they think the markets going to go and go and go we haven’t seen a top

They all provide right data however the outcome predicted is all wrong, did home prices crash yet ?

@@straightdrive6192 Yes. The data is accurate. People who explain why markets are going to go lower usually have the best data and make a ton of sense. They’re just usually wrong despite the data

Nick is very data driven, but he's been wrong about the housing market 100% of the time over the last 3 yrs lol

It's not a binary position: right/wrong. That's overly simplistic and reeks of not understanding markets. Housing markets don't "crash" overnight. It's a slow drain. There was no "crash" after the '08 downturn, either. It still took 4-5 years to get back to acceptable pricing. And the "housing market" is an aggregate of a massive number of smaller markets. Prices have dropped precipitously in some areas and remained steady or even inflated in others.@@jgg204

that's the best case, the other is the few remaining just leave

Will look forward to it. Just need a reason to raise it. Now they have it. We should be good.

I was thinking the same. No shortage of coverage on that for me

One would think a pro flipper would be more intelligent. Also, Zillow just bought a friends house in Sacramento for way overvalue. Their monthly offer to him just went up 60K and he took it, even when not wanting to sell initially. Most of the institutional buyers are way behind the times and many billions in debt. They will be dumping thousands of homes soon and that will trigger the crash.

@@AlphaJ369 who is the pro flipper you talk about?

@@amyb5356 that was my response to another post above me.

Absolutely correct. 1928 there were signs of distress on mortgages. By 1929 it escalated to a full blown crisis. 2006 housing abruptly lost its steam and stagnated until late 2007 when foreclosures started happening. By 2008 prices precipitously started dropping. Right now we are in a stagnated market. It could go up or down. If prices start to climb and break trend above previous highs the path of least resistance is up. If it fails to make new highs the trend will be down. Speculation about mass unemployment is neither here nor there. It has not happened so it is not reality. High unemployment is also not synonymous with falling home prices. The entire decade of the 1970s were plagued by high unemployment (higher than the Great Recession) and housing prices rose 140% from 1970-1980. Despite very high interest and unemployment.

Yeah but Crashbro sounds much better then Correctionbro. Crash=fear and panic, Correction=normal market reaction. Understand the goal here is to create views, sensationalism does that, not boring typical market cycle stuff.

Couldn't agree more

Bonkers

I love your show!!! You 3 guys need to take over the RU-vids and make a Network!!

​@matl7560 I'll be back in the sattle tomorrow morning. I got sick and it knocked me on my butt. 😅

​@njerseydavid 😞 No. Offer wasnt accepted, the seller got upset and removed the listing. Not a single day goes by where I don't look and hunt. My goals are in place, and I know what I'm looking for. Nothing in my market is penciling out. Wedge, cash flow, PRICE etc

Thank you Travis. The view is unbeatable ain’t it!

Taxes will make you broke.

It's nice to be a Boomer, and not have deal with today's nonsense.

Exactly!

where did you get that from ? if you make 100K+, you can afford a house. unless you want to buy 2+ millions house.

@@bennguyen2963 Agreed, anyone making 100+k can totally buy a home. You just have to move a few hours away from your job that pays you that lol.

@@bennguyen2963not really Einstein 0bvisuly you don’t live in Southern California or some other blue state

I am in CA and make over 130k and homes are unaffordable. And by unaffordable I don't mean I can't qualify, I mean I would be house poor.

@@bennguyen2963 With interest rates a nice house in most towns not in a fecal hole area would require a mortgage rate of around $3500 to $4000 a month. You must think 100K goes as far as it did back in 91'

Thank you for saying that!! conveys my point exactly

Agree.. people are having one kid esp in Asian countries .. but they are those who have an elite kinda lifestyle.. esp urban India... More international vacations ... Latest car.. iphone.. American branded stuff .. laptops ..purses .. etc.. it is just ridiculous competition

I assume you will be selling then. And I don’t blame you.

I hope you don’t live in Rockland County. Plenty of Law Enforcement and Firefighters live there. From what you are saying, the schools may all be heading to becoming like Ramapo Central School District. A complete disaster. Think about moving to Viera in Brevard County Florida. There are plenty of Medical Centers on The Space Coast. Rockland County Executive ED Day refused to take in what Mayor Adams was trying to send to live in a local Hotel. I’m sad to say it’s going to happen anyway.

As far as I can see the Democratic party see a problem like illegal immigrants invading our country and instead of solving the problem at the boarder like Trump attempted, the Democrats do not take the position to solve the problem BUT assume the position to finnancially profit off the problem at the taxpayers expense to fill there pockets and friends of the party.

Total abuse of the tax paying Americans, we are taxed to death, and now paying for everyone else too. This has to end.

Thats only nyc. Wont be happening in affluent suburbs. Although hamptons schools have no white kids at all. Theyre a minority and get no minority protections. I agree though. Im at the brink with NY too. They will lose loads more population in next 5 years.

Yes, when it doesn't appraise...you have to come up with the cash difference

True, but they are not as bad as the real scumbags, students who took out loans. Pay them back butter cups.

Do you hear the huge sucking sound, it's our treasonist politicians stealing our wealth,our middle class is being decimated!!! RC!!

Because when people like you lose your jobs you won't have much of a choice.

Median household income has jumped from 65k a year to 82k in may of 2023

My tech company froze salary raises, stopped bonuses. Some of the salary is paid in stocks…which are worth next to nothing

​@@Coffeendonutsthe jump in the household is 35 year old Jr getting a part time job.

Thank you for supporting his channel.🙏🤍🙏

Bingo.

Wrong!!! ..😂😂🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

@@brianlord1232 so you believe home prices come down ? I believe the opposite ,and intact doubling down .

@@straightdrive6192 yep!! Every indicator outside the Residential RE market is falling apart. Including globally.. only a short matter of time before the fake appreciation blows apart. But hey man go for it..

@@brianlord1232 Reality has already proven him right , Renter.

Totally agree, you just cant help some folk.

Thank you for sharing that I’m going to quote that in a future video

@onereelvision8428, great comment! USDA is also another 100% down and for investment property the DSCR loans debt-service coverage ratio are another way around strict guidelines with low down payments.

When 😂

​@@MichaelBordenaroYou are welcome.

​@@jayneweaver8695Yes those two probably represent another 5%-8%

Very good point! Drives me nuts that these people keep banging the ‘08 crash v2 drum and people are putting their lives on hold for a deal that may or may not happen. On avg, prices went down 20% nationally from 07 to 09. It then took 6 years to recover nationally. Markets are very localized and I think there are going to be people holding out for that 20, 30, 40 % decline and they’ll miss out on providing a home for their families. Speculating on timing/deals is okay if your looking at an investment property but I don’t think that is wise for a primary home.

Nick is the Nouriel Roubini (Dr. Doom) of real estate. Yet, I enjoy his alarmist-style.

Thought it was longer. The kid is all click bate,

Correction...not crash.

💯

Then get out there and buy buy buy

Exactly. They spent the last 24 months telling us it was coming any day now. It's going to come - it is the inevitable nature of the market - not some prophetic/analytical insight. So best thing is to keep making good decisions and pray that when the time is right, you have your ducks in a row. Trying to precisely time a crash is a fool's errand.

Michael knows what he's talking about

That what these two are hoping. Most people would get scared and hold on buying houses.

For real. Gets so annoying I'm actually starting to side with realtors

It's all getting a bit silly with these guys. Hoping to capitalize on the broken clock being right twice a day phenomenon. When the crash eventually happens - because it's the inevitable nature of market cycles - you can be sure they'll be there to retroactively illustrate how whatever time it happens was the year they really meant all along.

Why would there be a housing crash? Do these guys even understand the market at all?

If Nick had won my trust I never would've discovered Michael haha Don't get me wrong. Easy to listen to, and very intelligent but you have to zoom far out and include global agendas at work to understand what's happening now. This is not the market of the past.

If they knew the housing market, they should have predicted housing in 2021 and 2023 would be up or even flat.

Me too! Nick gives me hope for our country. He is smart and gets it!

I wish I lived there too. Live in Montana and we used to be a small town, invaded by California and Texas, 44k in 2020 and in some months 6k new residents, it's rough. Our home prices have more than doubled and rent has tripled in 2 years and 8 months. Looking for another state, small town. : o)

Texas invaded too, our small country town is now a city, wildlife, trees and ranches…all gone in three years. Soul sucking 😰

@@MeadowDay i bet Texas is just like here, non-stop, they just keep coming. It is like a nightmare and you don't wake up. "They" Californians and Texans stay and here comes their friends and family. UGH!

Same, but with northeasterners in the Tampa area. Totally ruined the area. I fled in 2021.

​@@jayneweaver8695California native...California was once wide open space...irony being people invaded California from other states and destroyed it...I think beautiful places will always be discovered, invaded, and destroyed. Social media doesn't help

Buy.

Yes. I have often pointed out the same thing "oh prices are 'only' up because of low supply". Lol. Like, really ? Thanks Einstein.

Thanks!!

I agree 💯👍 big fan for both!

The timing and stuff like this is very hard to nail down. That’s why I’ve tried to stay away from giving hard and fast dates and predictions because we really don’t know.

Yup ... You listen to these crash bros, and you'll end up paying more.

There has been tons of government intervention, which has delayed a housing crash, but it will come

Investor Jeremy Grantham has made predictions and they are being pushed back but the last three that he made he was right on.

another genius babbling

Anything is possible

Sorry the truth offends@@questionauthority7377

Oh ok..😂😂😂😂🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️..

Most homeowners do not have the cash to buy.

@@MichaelBordenaro and yet, I just read that around 1/3 of current home sales are paid in cash. Even if most homeowners don't have enough equity they're still not going to sell at the same time. The supply will continue to be low for the next decade and the existing problems will only be compounded and become the new normal... It already has.

Rents are spiraling out of control too.

​@@MustbeTheBassestyou know what sucks is I agree with this. The most obvious outcome usually ends up correct. The most obvious outcome is things going to shit for the average person. After seeing so many videos, this feels like the new normal. There is nothing really stopping it from being so. Enough people make enough money though to keep the overinflated markets going and that's all that matters. Everyone else just gets by. I hope we're wrong

Here we are!

Basically how Europe is. Only about 30% of Western Europeans own their own home.

This would result a even more people leaving the country tho, without any good social service and expensive livestyle, all the small worker will be encourage to go elswhere. This is excatly whats happening to Canada, we have a huge brain drain cause of the housing crisis.

That doesn't make sense. Economies always seek equilibrium. If prices stay high and nobody sells (which I don't think even could happen), builders will increase supply by building more affordable homes.

@@destroya3303They’re already building more homes. I don’t know about “affordable”, though. Builders are greedy AF and, as that, they exist to soak you for every dime you’re worth, not to provide relief to buyers. 😂

@@joefunk76 If they aren't "affordable" now they will have to be eventually, if they want buyers. People are more mobile now than ever. With remote work, if an area is too pricey they can pack up and move, and let that "luxury" apartment complex or condo rot.

If I would listen two of them or with similar topics I would miss 5-6 years paying my own house which has payment less than rent.

Ok Dave Ramsey

@@Coffeendonuts Dave is right.

The typical American makes less than $60k while the median home price is around $400k. 25% of typical net monthly income is about $1k while a 15-year mortgage on $400k at 7% is $3,600. Even with two workers making $60k each per household, they would need their income to almost double to satisfy the Dave Ramsey guideline. 😢

@@joefunk76 Buy less house in a more affordable area then. We bought a fixer upper about eight years ago for half of what other homes in the neighborhood were selling for. Just make sure the foundation is solid, and that there are no major structural defects. All other things are easily repaired, often by DIY. Americans have become lazy, and want turn key homes from a Pottery Barn catalog.

Sad they lost the homes

Remember this. Robert Shiller, who is the inventor of the case Shiller home price index predicted there would be a housing crash all the way back in 2004 didn’t happen till 2008.

I bought my 2nd house in San Diego last August with 4.375. By the time crash happen I already pay it off 😂

​@@MichaelBordenaroSo is your advice to wait ANOTHER four years to see if you "might" be right then ? After waiting two years already ? That would put the average person at about 150k in the hole in rent payments that could have been spent on their own mortgage and wealth building , instead of further enriching their landlord. That's your advice ? Wait 6 years ?