Ed, I'll be completely honest and say that when I first started listening to Prof G markets 2 years ago or so ago now, it often seemed like you were giving opinions that you thought the boss would want to hear. But now, you're really you're own person and I think doing a great job. I really enjoy hearing your takes as much as Scott's. You've really grown into the role and I see you very much as a "co-host" now.
Respectfully, I only partially agree. What the Ivy League educated young Ed leaves out is something that is so obvious and has been for decades, long before Ed was born. Bureaucracy! Plain and simple. The UK and Europe are full of it and it kills innovation. Do you really know just how difficult it is to start a business in the UK and Europe versus America? It's night and day. And there is a "thing" in Europe where the Euros still poke fun at America as this land of just blindly jumping in and we'll figure it out later mentality, meanwhile in Europe, they have to sit and discuss, analyze, every little angle and possibility. By the time the Euros are done discussing, the US has produced, revamped, and rolled out new version of product XYZ.
@@jnibs6426"Do you really know just how difficult it is to start a business in the UK and Europe versus America?" In the Ease of Doing Business Index of 2020, the US was ranked #6, vs. #12 for the UK (of 190 countries ranked). So a slight advantage to the US, but nothing too crazy. I wouldn't be surprised if the other stereotypes you mention are similarly questionable.
No he's not. Brexit is nothing to do with the UK's problems, the fact that it's run by the same left liberal EU globalist establishment is the problem. This guy is a fucking clown lol.
I was born in the UK and have lived here all 32 years of my life. What Ed talks about at the 40:00 mark is why we have such a pathetic start up culture. There is the cultural touchpoint of "why bother", "know your place", if you want to try something insane its met with "why would you do that?". Tom Bloomfield Founder of Monzo mentioned it recently on the 20VC podcast. Is it without a doubt the single worst part of our culture.
Thanks, Ed. Your thoughts on the UK vs. America helped clarify my experience studying abroad for a year in the UK. Keep the insights coming! Best episode yet!
As an Englishman that came to NYC in 2012 at 27, as one of 4 people grew our new US company to 140 employees over 4 years, started my own tech consultancy in 2019, grew that from 0 to 70 employees over 4 years and got acquired last year; you guys could not be more spot on with regards to the cultural differences between the US and UK. In the UK it's very much (to quote Radiohead) "your ambition makes you ugly". In general in the US, MOST people want OTHER people to be successful. In the UK there's a sense of jealous resentment for those that strive and make it. I often wander if the UK probably had a similar meritocratic culture in the Victorian era when everything seemed within reach and new discoveries were being made every day. I think this culture is a byproduct of just having a larger economic pie to operate within.
I studied 19th-century British history at one point, and even during the Victorian era, there was a real tension between the old landed aristocracy and the new inventor/entrepreneur/merchant class. An example, for most of the 19th century, British military officers *bought* their commissions. Typically, only rich aristocrats could afford to do this. So, not particularly meritocratic. The practice of selling commissions ended in 1871, but even afterwards, top military commands were usually monopolized by aristocrats. I'd describe it as a mix of meritocracy and aristocracy.
Ed is completely correct, an E1 is the best grade to get in the UK; I was born & schooled in Jamaica, So I fully comprehend where he's coming from & the success he's heading for being in the US.
Note on the Nvidia stock split and stock splits generally - they have a pretty big impact on options strategies. For one, premium is much cheaper since regardless of share price, options contracts represent 100 shares each. Another example, the minimum amount invested in Nvidia to sell covered calls is now $10,700 (100 shares x $107 per share) vs. $107,000 (100 shares x $1070 per share). Even more ridiculous, you would need over $300k in Chipotle to sell covered calls. Even if you're a small institution who has a position in Chipotle, it could be short of $300k.
This format: 1. This Week's Number 2. Ad 3. Ed's Reaction 4. Show The format we want 1. This Week's Number 2. Ed's Reaction 3. Show 4. NYTimes board callback flex 5. Ad 6. Show 7. Self-deprecating anecdote that proves Scott is an out of touch 1%-er 8. Ad 9. Show 10. Inappropriate Joke Ending kthx.
40:35 we had this at state schools too, but the first time I ever heard of the "max grade, low effort" was at university by the elite educated (Eton, Winchester, boarding school). The other state schoolers (95% of the UK) I was with when we heard this were as shocked as I was. I think the symptom you describe is true, but it is very much an elite thing, the 90%+ majority of Brits don't have this concept.
Anyone else think Ed is speaking a lot more on the show? I feel like you are coming out of your shell Ed with more insights in addition to Prof Gs insights. Keep Rocking you guys!! 🤘
36:40 = "And the fact that you stayed here as opposed to going back, where you have family, where you speak the language" I burst out laughing because I thought Scott was making a joke at the tail end.
Great insight as always. As a co-founder of a UK startup I can safely say your "indefinite maybe" distillation of B2B meetings is 100% accurate, and its maddening to deal with!
Wow- Just discovered this podcast. As a Brit living outside his 'home' country for almost 20 years, I feel the frustration of Ed & Scott. Excellent communication & debate.
Fundrise recommends holding your position with them for 5 years otherwise redemptions may incur a transaction fee of 1%+. Also, redemptions are only offered quarterly.
Great discussion, but I respectfully disagree with Scott. While voice interfaces are important, the future of LLM interactions will be multimodal and situational. Depending on the task and context, we’ll need to view output and follow up with non-verbal actions. Scott's narrow view doesn't capture the full complexity of evolving AI interactions. The future lies in adaptable systems seamlessly integrating voice, text, physical actions, and visuals.
25:30 Just a small correction about the Nvidia segment: The graphic was correctly stating the comparison about Nvidias market cap exceeding the value of the German stock market. But Scott repeatedly said Nvidias market cap exceeded German GDP, which is incorrect since the GDP by far exceeds the market cap of the German stock market or Nvidia.
Re: Nvidia, talking about its value using arbitrary benchmarks (GDP of Germany) is not useful. Whether or not Nvidia is going to lose market share to its customers depends on its ability to focus and innovate, and I haven't seen a case yet for the idea that it can't maintain its advantage. The second pertinate question is how many gpus underlay a world economy where 40% of the tasks composing knowledge and service-based jobs have been automated with AI, and what does that timeline look like. Maybe speak to those questions instead of trotting out 'the market is cyclical' clichés?
The US/UK was interesting but I think it falls in to the classic narrative you would arrive at from watching mainstream news and not living and working on the ground. As someone who was born in England and lives in London, I think talk of Brexit or politicians in general overstates their impact or relevance. I work in finance and nobody mentions these topics. A more pervasive issue is the overarching climate towards capitalism and business (wealth must be driven by greed and greed means exploitation of someone somewhere, therefore bad), in turn business needs to be regulated, taxed and restricted until it can be proven otherwise. Watch something like Clarkson’s Farm and you’ll understand the anti-capitalist climate facing all of us. Couple that with an ever increasing state servicing health needs (“our NHS”), stupidly high house prices draining the life out of the working population, student loans, immense regional inequalities (London is not England and vice versa) and longer life expectancies - it all adds up to a sentiment now that is worse than for previous generations. All of which our media kindly reminds us on a daily basis. And so the cycle continues…..
A bit misleading to compare EU and UK GDP growth - EU growth is driven by post-Communist states still catching up with Western living standards. A more reasonable comparison would be between UK and the EU's "Big Four": France, Germany, Italy, Spain.
It already is effectively focusing on the big Western nations. The EU Eastern European countries of Czech Republic, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Lithuania, Slovenia, Latvia, and Estonia make up a chunky ~5% of EU GDP so have little effect on the overall GDP number... even if you include Poland (which is central Europe) it's only around 9% of the overall GDP number, and that's what the statement was reflecting, the change in GDP from June 2016 to now.
@@TripTees78 Why wouldn't you include Poland? It's the largest post-Communist state in the EU. This is a very simple thing to do: just compare GDP growth since 2016 for UK, France, Italy and Germany. Hint: France and the UK are very similar, Italy slightly worse, Germany started strong but is pretty shocking post-2022.
@@hunter98764 Actually, I apologize because for some reason I read "Eastern Europe". But the point is, even with Poland, that's just 9% of the total GDP for those countries; nothing will change much that much in terms of the comparison even if taking them out. Just choosing three countries when the comparison is meant to be vs the EU as a whole is really very much cherry picking IMHO. Germany's lack of growth post-22 is for an obvious reason: it was totally reliant on Russian gas (and I know Italy were most reliant on Russian Oil, I genuinely don't know re gas). Were it not for the war in Ukraine, it's unlikely GDP would be where it is. Italy has it's own, country-specific problems. Why would you not include other Western European nations? Or just take the whole EU? Now, I dispute the 24% vs 6% numbers (see my comment at the top of the thread) and have access to all of this data and think it's more like 14% vs 7%. I can't say I take too much notice of the UK or the EU because a bit like Scott I tend to think the US (and now Asia and Mid-East) are places to make money, Europe a place to spend it, but I was surprised at the scale of the difference so did decide to fact-check it. But even if I'm right and the pod wrong, 7% growth lost - it's not a controversial claim to assume the UK might have grown at what is a weighted average of EU countries - even over 7 years is an awful lot for a $2.5-3 Tn economy, especially factoring in what now seems to be a permanently lower exchange rate.
@@TripTees78 It's more apt to compare the UK with other G20 European economies that have similar population size and levels of economic development. EU growth is buoyed by multiple member states catching up on 40 years of missed economic development under Communism. As a % of EU GDP I have post-Communist states at c11% (though its share is increasing every year). This is before accounting for dodgy GDP numbers in Ireland and Luxembourg which are tax havens for American Tech. All countries have specific issues. The UK has a terrible housing market and chronic underinvestment. Germany has a self-defeating energy policy and Chinese competition making serious inroads on its traditional industries. You cannot compare "like for like" but my approach seems more reasonable. There's no doubt that Brexit has led to lower GDP growth. I agree with the gravity model of international trade (though if any country bucks this trend, to a limited degree, it's the UK with its English speaking services-orientated economy). But most Brexiteers would argue this is a long-term play concerned with greater democratic accountability and a different approach to economic regulation. I'd actually argue that Brexit would 100% be worth it if the EU destroys its nascent AI industry with overregulation (seems likely) and the UK doesn't (too early to tell). The real point here is about the vast economic gulf between the EU/UK and the USA that opened up post-2008. Both had similar sized economies 15 years ago, with Western European GDP per Capita comparable to the US. Now US GDP is c30% larger and the gap is still growing. Prof G does a bit of a "splice and dice" here and blames UK specific comparisons on Brexit, but it's also true for France, Italy, Germany, etc. I don't blame the Brits for not wanting to be economically tied to a sclerotic bloc with huge structural problems. As with Singapore leaving Malaysia, and the Baltic states leaving the USSR, there's typically a short-medium term economic hit that can be overcome with the right policy decisions. Whether Britain will make these decisions is still to be decided.
Good Show! I got to travel to London for the first time and after my first day there I, having had a negative attitude about Brexit for the reasons you have mentioned, completely understood why Brexit happened. I was in the city for 8 hours before I heard an English accent. As I spent days in Notting Hill, Kensington and the like, I could see that no-one lived there. There were very few people on the streets, few restaurants for such density, it was clear that the city had been over-run by land banking, foreign money parked in London real estate with no one there, driving out locals. British leadership got to line their pockets from real estate but the common person got little benefit, would be my guess. Not saying Brexit was the right choice, or that my view is correct, but that is how I saw it. The same thing is coming in the US.
Listen to NVDA's earnings call, you'll probly have a different take on the bubble when you hear the new revenue streams coming online. A lower price in a year is a ballsy call Scott, doubt you're correct
Last night was chasing southern Illinois and western Kentucky had to go around major flooding. Also had to get out of car about 5 times to remove tree parts from roads saw 2-3 tornadoes one of which after dark and looked violent. Crazy crazy year
Yeah, I'm sure many people have felt that Nvidia is a bubble that has to burst any day now for the past 10 years or more. This company is messing with investors' minds.
Very good podcast, totally agree with Ed, having lived in London for almost 20 years, moved back to Ireland after Brexit. Really appreciate the stats reflection on what Brexit did to the place. Disaster.
🇬🇧 That UK bit is so insightful!! I could never place my finger on what felt off there, but this captures it perfectly! 🌎🤝🏼🌏 Consider covering more cultural differences when it comes to economics and business, please!! 🔝 If it's as precise as this, it's gold!!
There’s still a lot of banks that don’t do fractional shares like JP Morgan. So for those people it is a big deal to be able to buy it for a lower cost.
Key differences: original Voice assistants have a bunch of micro models (voice to text, intent semantic understanding, then vertical search/actions)... they can all be thrown away with LLM, just 1 model is enough. Think of it as refactoring. Would it make money? No. Would it be cheaper and better, absolutely.
The average person should not be allowed to invest in venture capital. They are the dumb money and it's disgusting that you allow these guys to advertise on here. Maybe you have equity in it?
Although I agree with the sentiment that the British made a huge self-inflicted wound with Brexit, I am slightly skeptical over the graphic's claim that EU (I presume European Union rather than Eurozone) GDP has grown 24% since June 16 to date whilst UK GDP has grown around 6%. I'm using Bloomberg data too as per the source and only get EU GDP growth to 14% and UK growth to 6.86% over the same period... although this is of course still an eye-opening spread.
Hey Scott- Great job as usual. Question, do you know why listeners pay for YT Premium? Because they don’t want ads! It’s not ok to waste our time with them. You make enough money. YT should find a way to filter this bs out for Premium subscribers.
The creators need to talk to YT. I already pay $18+ a month. Which is already very high for a streaming service. I am doing my part. I am laying for no ads. Don’t care if it’s YT or the creator’s sponsors.
your daily reminder that over half of inflation recently is due to corporate profits. Walmart and Target lowering their prices is a great example of corps not needing to increase the prices (or at least not for that long) as much as they did. Their record profits proves that.
It sounds like the UK's problems are mostly economic. Is there any reason to think a Labour government will fare any better? I'm not a Brit, so I'm not familiar with Labour's platform, but left-leaning parties usually have less business-friendly policies.
22:22 Nvidia dominate the AI and Data research sphere. Similar to python, there are other options but in an evidence based space like academic research, keeping the software language and hardware constant simplifies peer reviews, reproducibility and reduces the number of variables that can F* things up.
Great show, but a sad indictment of the UK peoples problematic decision to leave the EU. Ed's view on why he picked the US over the UK to live is pretty eye opening. The UK needs people like Ed to help reshape the UK's future in a more proactive, prosperous way.
A major reason conservatives are getting slammed in the UK is also for their environmental policy. I read an article recently that said something like there are zero rivers that are safe to swim in in England now… major economic cost to that too. Not to mention intangible/ invaluable costs. Obscene. Speaks to privatization issue and beyond.
What I'm hearing is if China puts boats around Taiwan, CA's finances fall into the ocean along with the rest of the stockmarket. I don't like how long that lever is. Hopefully they don't feel pressured to move before the election.
They are selling composite chips for $30,000 plus right now. In 15 years the chips will be semi-comodized by competitor producing slower chips bur larger parallel arrays. Software will take a while to catch up but similar as Android took some of the iOS market, other open source AI sets of tools, plus low priced chips, plus massive infinite scalable arrays - Nvidia would be unable to charge these insane prices it is getting away with today. It isn’t as easy as it looks now, over the longer term.
I was gearing up to be irritated by Ed’s take about English education, assuming that he was going to trash the notion that hard work deserves rewarding. How wrong I was; the point he made was absolutely fascinating.
Ed that system is NOT the standard at least when I went to school. We had GCSEs and got one grade as you described for the US. Has this changed? Or was it specific to the institution you went to? I agree with all the class stuff but that pervades the US too. How much is it to go to college there? My take is Margaret Thatcher signed up to Reaganomics which benefited one country and one country only the whale that is the US. All our companies got bought. Look at the games industry we were world leaders in the 80s and 90s now look at us. All US studios
Great summation of the UK's trajectory following the vote for Brexit Ed. I'd add to that analysis is that the vast majority of Brexit voters were over 65 years old. As well as many people regretting, or having since changed their mind about this decision, it's also worth emphasising that a decisive proportion of those who voted Brexit are now literally dead. These dynamics are not unique to the UK, but can also been seen in Trump's backers in the US. The common tendency is to look for scapegoats and blame economic migrants for a stagnating economy and deteriorating public services. Brexit is still a significant taboo issue in the UK with politicians afraid to discuss it openly. Not everyone voted Brexit out of racism or xenophobia, many kind natured people were sold an explanation that migration from the EU was the driving factor in the decline or public services, and escalating healthcare waiting lists which they accepted in good faith. Sadly they couldn't see the actual driver of these things falling apart was the austerity policies implemented by the Conservative government.
31:15 Market Size, shared Language and Culture. Often when we talk about European countries compared to the United States we leave out the obvious. Many of the countries in Europe have been punch up for years based on historic colonization. The EU created a unified market but it didn't fix the language and culture problem you have to address when targeting an EU cohort.
I don't get it 1] If Nvidia's analysts are wrong in predicting earnings why do they have jobs anymore? 2] If everybody's analysts are always wrong, how come the stocks move based on what analysts predict and then wheather the company beat a prediction we all know is worthless? I predict Scott Galloway will be US President in 2024. When I'm wrong send me money???????
Obviously getting the same result with more effort is not as good. It's like training all year to run as fast as an Olympic sprinter who's just jogging. Yes, you matched the pro this time, but you're objectively not as good, and he could leave you eating his dust if he actually exerted himself next time around.
