Great analysis again. Regarding my Portfolio I feel like owning Tesla and Nvidia at the same shares right now is a bit silly because Nvidia has also huge potential but is in a more predictable position right now. I will follow you in dipbuying this. Very valuable information in this one
Yeah, in fact I think Nvidia’s total addressable market is much better than Tesla’s because Nvidia’s services can affect many industries and businesses (eg. GPUs for consumers, AI accelerators/supercomputers/ARM processors for data center customers, AI software stack, autonomous driving vehicles, metaverse, professional visualization, AI robotics, Cryptocurrencies, etc.)
Hi Victor, I love your channel, great job as always!!! I like your analytical approach to data, but also a broader look at the company, where the company currently is and what its future prospects are. You look at the company in many dimensions, which I really like, because I try to analyze my investment in a similar way. Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger often said that their biggest investment mistakes were errors of omission, where they knew the company and its fundamentals, and yet they did not decide to buy, for example: Google or Amazon in the early 2000s, because they were a bit too expensive at the time. They did not make that mistake with Apple. They often say that it is better to buy a great company at a reasonable price than a cheaply average one. Don't you sometimes worry that giving up paying a few percent more for great companies that will last for many years is a big mistake?;-) This is not an easy topic and an eternal dilemma for every investor;-) !! Your retrospective analysis of Coca-Cola or Apple at historical prices, when Buffett decided to buy them, would be extremely interesting, what would come out of your analysis of those historical data. Warm greetings from Poland, Cześć!!
Thanks my friend! I appreciate your kind words and support! I actually learned the most from studying Warren Buffett for many years, and applying his investment principles/philosophies in tech stocks and wide-moat stocks. One thing I would like to add is that we can often "buy wonderful businesses (the best businesses) at wonderful prices (undervalued prices)" in the stock market, because the market is not always efficient. The market does dumb things from time to time (e.g. overhyping stocks or being too pessimistic).
At the current prices of AI chips the services will be very costly for customers and if the customers dont come in then AI chips demand will go down too
to be safe, I'm 50/50 in my portfolio between NVDA and AAPL. I doubt Apple is asleep at the wheel with AI, and the fact that they have their own in house chipset now makes me think they were preparing for this. Apple will probably drop a huge W on the market this year with an announcement, and their stock will catapult to 10trillion over the next 5 years. But Apple is Apple, Nvidia can have the rest of the market. Either way, I see my portfolio as "risky" but yet smart and safe and will make me a lot of money in short time.
I think having a 50/50 portfolio is fine if it’s a small portfolio. Apple and Nvidia are two of the best businesses out there. This is my own prediction. I think Apple will release its LLM or some kind of AI model to replace Siri. So going forward Apple will focus much more on AI and incorporate smaller language models into iPhones, Macs, iPads, etc. As far as I know, their hardware or the Apple M chips already have neural engines inside that could run many AI applications locally. I’m pretty sure they will eventually replace Siri with much better LLMs, and these AI models will be run locally on our iPhones.
Also, since you talk about the possibility of Nvidia getting 90% off of 150 or 400 billion assessable market for 2027, it would be interested to see an analysis of those scenarios with the discount cash Flow model
Yup I think it’s still valid. I’m still very bullish on Nvidia and Apple, so I’m still holding them. I would only buy more Nvidia if it drops to my intrinsic value.
Victor , whats your opinion in investing in the QQQ etf , i have been doing that and think its better than individual stocks , you still hove coverage in all the best tech companies with less volatility and downside
I like QQQ. I also have it. I prefer doing my research and picking my own individual stocks instead. But if I don't have the time to research, I'll just stick with QQQ. QQQ doesn't have some of the companies I like (e.g. TSMC, Visa, Mastercard).
Yeah they are cousins and rivals at the same time:) AMD’s GAAP P/E is misleading because AMD has to deduct large “non-cash amortization of acquisition related intangibles” expenses every quarter from acquiring Xilinx, so you’ll have to look at AMD’s non-GAAP financials.
@@TheIntelligentInvestor Thanks for the note on P/E. I own both AMD and NVDA and they have both done very nicely for my portfolio. Thanks for your videos
You know generative AI is just the beginning of AI. The next biggest thing will eventually be AGI. Once OpenAI or other AI firms achieve AGI, that’ll increase the demand for AI accelerators even further.
@@TheIntelligentInvestor Drug Discovery - Found thousends new drugs allready, Autonomouse Driving - Allmost all car company use NVIDIA DRIVE, BIO Robots can heal human cells, Robots can be created and trained instantly - NVIDIA ISAAC Sim (Eureka) Physics Simulation - NVIDA Chipnemo to create better chips than other, Retail - Simulate best cost efficiency, Production - With omniverse a factory can be created in the simulation and build when it is tested Million times and all is outomated - BWM, Amazone, Pepsi allready in it. Weather Simulation with Digital Twin Earth- Nasa and other companys using it allready, Saving money for production with AI - cost saving billions because it predict overproduction Top quality Movies can be made by reditor - Save money Also games quality Dont forget the military would spend Trillions for the best AI weapons. This is at least 10 Trillion Dollar company for me.
I think your estimate is way to low. Based on their rising margins, increase in data revenue as well as demand in other growing areas they will stay ahead of any competition for several more years. NVDA is the next big thing to happen in the world as we know it today. If you wait for the stock price to get to your "fair value" you may never get back in. Unless there is a market wide event the price will continue to trend upward from current levels. I believe NVDA will be the first company to reach $5T in value. If you plan on holding the stock long term, this may be as cheap as it gets.
You may be right. I’m being more conservative in my revenue estimates over the next 5 years. If the AI server market’s total addressable market reaches $400 billion by 2027 (as estimated by AMD) and if we assume Nvidia still captures 90% of the AI server market, then Nvidia should be worth much more now. But I’m gonna be conservative in my estimates.
NVDA will be fully valued when it reaches $100,000 a share and when ChatGPT conducts all business productivity and commerce worldwide. People will not be needed
It’s not competitive compared to Nvidia’s AI accelerators and full stack of AI software. If you check Intel’s recent AI events, you’ll notice Intel is way behind Nvidia and AMD in AI. There are reasons why Intel has underperformed Nvidia and AMD for years. Eg many product delays, process technologies not as competitive as TSMC, Apple using its own Apple silicon chips instead of Intel chips, Intel’s discrete GPUs are not competitive compared to Nvidia and AMD’s discrete GPUs, etc. so I wouldn’t bet on Intel offering competitive AI accelerators and software to compete with Nvidia/AMD.
There are many ways to value stocks. Using a DCF model is just one of them. And every DCF model is different with different assumptions and estimates. A lot of people and institutional investors also use TA to value stocks, so I wouldn’t worried about them, the market is not always efficient.
@@user-di9jn8yn4d when do you think it’s gonna crash then? They have big plans for the future and market dominance, what would cause their downfall? Or do you think the whole AI stock hype is a bubble?
