A look at some of the details in the recently released DWR reports. www.paypal.me/... REPORTS LINK: www.water.ca.go... / juan-browne-blancoliri... Theme Music: Aram Bedrosian "Weightless" • Weightless - Aram Bedr... arambedrosian....
There was a historical photo showing the construction of the main spillway before the concrete was poured on the DWR website that was removed shortly after the original blowout. This photo showed the underlying geology, and the highly weathered nature of portions of the bedrock. If it was deemed appropriate for public viewing before the incident, then it should still be appropriate for public viewing now. "Analysis of historical construction photographs continue to show that the concrete slab was placed on a variety of materials that ranged from clean, hard, bedrock to highly weathered rock that appeared soil-like" BOC Memorandum No. 3
My father worked on the Orville Dam. He drove to Orville from Lafayette every Monday morning. He stayed in the worker's camp, drove a scraper and bulldozer. He drove a '58 Ford Bronco and he would fill it up with round rocks. Every Saturday morning me and my brother would help unload the truck. He made a very nice dry riverbed out in the backyard with three years of brought home rocks. Great reporting.
Super update as always---and love the little socks drying on the deck rail. Little things like that just emphasize that you really are one of us, IMHO.
Water seeps through ANY crack and saturates the dirt below, compacted or otherwise. Without sufficient drainage to carry it away it builds up and then It turns to mud. The water keep sinking through the mud till it finds a solid surface (bedrock maybe) and then the water uses that as a barrier and starts moving along the barrier to the lowest point.Then erosion starts plus a mud slide, taking everything above it with it down stream somewhere. A slab with nothing supporting it will fall as we all know, and water will seek it's lowest level. That's it in a nutshell.
I'm not as good as Juan in trying to explain this. Water ( any fluid ) has a static pressure when it sits still. The deeper the water the greater the pressure. As you go deeper in the ocean the pressure rises. ( It's expressed in Pounds per Square Inch ) As the water gets deeper it will force its way into cracks. There is a second component in a flowing fluid and that's kinetic energy. That's what makes the turbines rotate to create electricity. When you stick your hand into a stream the water builds up in front of your hand. The same happens at the bow of a ship or a bridge pylon in a river. ( Juan would know this from studying pitot tubes on airplanes ). This is known as velocity pressure and it too is measured in PSI. And the faster the velocity the greater the pressure. A cubic yard of concrete weights 2000 pounds but spread over a square yard ( 36 inches x 36 inches = 1296 square inches ) is 2000 divided by 1296 = 1.54 PSI. When the velocity pressure exceeds 1.54 and the water is forced under the slab the slab will rise and get blown apart. This is what they're saying in the report. I hope that helps
Sure. I've been around the whole thing from construction to hauling the mud to setting forms, tying steel, you name it. I've seen the results of what happened here elsewhere and helped to repair it. Water will find an easier path, even if it has to make it's own. Hydraulics is/are a force to be reckoned with. As an equipment operator I see it all the time and know what moving water can do over time. I know there are formulas for all this but my formula is eyeball experience. NEVER underestimate the power of water.
Thanks for the explanation(s). I didn't hear the part about the water getting through cracks in the spillway concrete. Now that I know that, it makes more sense.
With a slab so thin, founded on highly erodible soil or decomposed rock, the design flaw is obvious. Whatever erodible material found below the MSW slab should have been removed and filled with dental concrete during the construction. Without the need of geotech drilling, the thickness of reddish brown soil or decomposed rock below the broken spillway slab is obvious for all to see. Oroville Dam is not an ancient dam but a modern engineering feat not built to safety standard. It is unimaginable to have the emergency spillway founded on an earthen mound. It is no surprise that severe erosion started to occur as it did during the February spill.
Of your recent "technical videos" this is far and away the best, even beginning to take on the characteristics of a mystery novel, complete with redacted government documents. We are on the edge of our seat waiting for future installments!
Thank you for the update. Good thing you are not having rain like we had today in southwest Wa. We've had rain almost every day for months. Today we had very heavy rain and the street we live on, which is pretty steep, actually looked like the dam spillway when opening up, with all the water sheeting down it. Funny how I now connect things with Oroville now. Lol
Juan - another OUTSTANDING presentation. Thanks for today's update. Do you ever fly over the Catskill Mountains / Adirondack Mountains = NY state? That's where I view your videos from.
While I am not a FOIA law expert, the redactions followed standard format. If the material were simply deleted, those seeking it would not know where the deletion was made and a reviewing court would not be able to determine whether the redaction was justified. Also, the "DO NOT RELEASE" notation at the bottom probably was not removed for similar reasons. In sum, the point is not to create a new document but to redact in a way that otherwise preserves the original document. Thanx for keeping us posted. Great info.
Thank you, looking forward to the quality filming you do. Very concerned about vegetation on the face of the dam and the amount of resources being devoted to emergency spillway when it is such a last option. Remembering how quickly the water reached the parking lot, and what a scouring event it was. Frightening that it may be seen as an option.
Would be interesting to view that PDF with forensic tools. Maybe there is text remaining under the black bars. If they left in the classified markings, who knows?
Any mention of using a mid range water reducing agent in the concrete for the repair? Also, any mention of the proposed thickness of the concrete on the new spill way
So can you assume that there will be a check done on all them other dams as well? Thanks Juan for your interesting commentary. We have a large number of dams here in New Zealand and I hope they are being well cared for.....
Shortly before Katrina, the Orleans Levee District (Maintenence Division) Petitioned the Orleans Levee District (Management Division) for an Emergency Lift, at $1.5 million dollars. The levees had settled, disturbing compaction and integrity. The petition was denied. The money had been removed from Maintenence budget and spent on bike paths, decorative fountains, gambling casinos, and private airports. The correlation between pre Katrina levee slump and post Katrina levee breach ran between 65 and 100%, based on 1997 SRTM Digital Elevation Models. Maintenence clearly knew there were problems, but it's difficult to pin blame on them, even though improper maintenence was the primary culprit. I am certain some water penetrated spillway deck cracks. I am just as certain that any non-flowing drain outlets, due to root damage to drainage pipes, were blatantly visible. A drainage pipe has water flowing from it, when others do, or it does not. Not at all hard for me to guess, who knew what, and when, regarding spillway under slab erosion flow. Equally certain who reported what, and when, and further certain exactly how those reports were received, in terms of remedial funding allocations. Any further speculation, approaches legal risk, from an organization already milking Critical Energy Infrastructure evasiveness.
What is the cost for the removal and rebuild of the main spillway, and rebuild of the emergency spillway? Certainly the 275 million does not cover all of that.
The red rock looks to be too solid to dig through, but too crumbly to build on. Once they remove the first portion of spillway right below the gates, it will be interesting to see how deep they excavate, how they clean the surface of loose material, and how they build the subgrade over the irregular surface. RCC base under the entire spillway or some aggregate that is large enough it won't wash away, whatever size that might be.
Thanks Juan. At my local airport - some smaller turboprop planes (like the Bombardier Q300) taxi much further down the runway than other planes on takeoff. The larger planes never do it. Is that because the pilot is less experienced, so they have more runway space to allow for mistakes? Also - some planes have some white front lights (not headlights) which blink left and right consecutively on approach to the runway, what does that signal mean?
Typing as I listen...You don't want to redacted material deleted from the report as it looks misleading to the reader. Also, it gives the reader an indication of how much material was redacted...One of the key principles of risk management is to consider both severity of the effect and the probability of the cause of the effect. A new design can allow for 371kcfs with the remote probability it would ever be necessary, therefore low risk...Expansion joints do not necessarily have to be waterproof if there are measures to address the water flow and forces through the expansion joints and under the dam...Juan, I look forward to your reports. You are a clear communicator. Bureaucrats, not so much. Please write a book on all of this. Ref McCullough's Johnstown Flood book.
This is why I think a step shelf system would be better. . The overlap could be by just two feet and be 12 inches thick. Or just make it all run through pipes from the top to the bottom.
A massive increase in the emergency spillway is very smart move! 6.5 Earthquake? Wasn't that the strength of the Oroville quake in the 70"s. (It was strongly felt in Stockton). They may be need to reassess that standard.
Thank you Juan. I assumed this would be so. Do you know what the below the gates lake elevation is? I also wonder when this elevation will be met and maintained.
So what's the latest on all this talk about "foam" in the diversion pool? I just recently read DWR took pictures of the foam and are testing the water to see the causes....
peak release for the main spillway was 160,000 cfs on December 27, 1996 to January 17, 1997, according to DWR records. And thats as much as its ever flowed.
james jones if the spillway gets ripped apart in February 2017 at 100k cfs when it can perform at 160k cfs in the past, it points to a failure of maintenance to check the integrity of spillway slab in recent years.
JESUS OF NAZARETH. THE ONLY BEGOTTEN SON OF GOD. KING OF ALL KINGS AND LORD OF ALL LORDS. IS THE TRUTH. THE WAY AND THE LIFE. NO ONE CAN GET TO THE FATHER BUT BY HIM. So that should end all that. Can we now get back to the Oroville Dam? Thank you Blancolirio for your wonderful reporting! Keep it coming and God bless you and your family!😇
Bo McGillacutty LOL! I got tired of getting notifications for the nonsense...so I had to interject😁! Love you and God bless you too! LOL (still laughing at your comment 😁! Thanks for catching the humor!)
Bo McGillacutty May Zuess', Allah's, Buddha's, the Dali Lama's and the rest of the dieties' and the gods' God, the LORD AND SAVIOR JESUS THE CHRIST (every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess Jesus is Lord!) bless you!
Thanks again for just the facts. While in Griddley say hello to Casa Lupe the food is good there. You made me chuckle, ask hillary...I like to listen to your report last so I can sleep better. Are you a christian minister?
The information is CONTROLLED not CLASSIFIED. It is the equivalent of the DOE Unclassified Controlled Nuclear Information (UCNI), DoD For Official Use Only (FOUO), or the Department of Homeland Security - Sensitive Security Information (SSI). You do not need a clearance to see controlled information. To view classified information you must have a clearance equal to or higher than the classification level of the information. Classified information can only be viewed in secure areas, while controlled information can be viewed anywhere as long as it is under supervision of a person who is designated as being responsible for the information. Classified information has be stored in a safe within a secure area, while controlled information can be stored in a locked filling cabinet inside of an office with a lockable door.
Juan, you said the 30 by 30" slabs will be put in place. That is like making "pre-cast" concrete panels. Or, are they going to pour these panels in place? Also,are there any pictures of the beginning of the spillway failure?
Does anyone think it odd that they are drilling and BLASTING and removing the very material that is used to support the dam? What is the reason for this Juan? Have you been told as to why this is happening. Plus what about the green vegetation growing on the face of the dam itself, what does that indicate? And maybe one more episode of draining the reservoir for the summer? Really? What about the snows in the mountains yet to melt? Where is all that supposed toGo? Something is not adding up.
I doubt ya need the 42 bucks for the tripod. More of consideration of your arms comfort. Personally like the hand held at work station. If you truly need a tri-pod i will send one. Stay well and keep us updated.
The "flowing spring source" is an important item. Small leaks never get smaller. Quality of the foundation rock may turn into 'whack a mole' once the slabs are removed ( weathered rock-soil from years of water leaks). The spring's outflow needs to be diverted till cause is found. The emergency spillway design flow of 371,000 cfs is in addition to the capacity of the gated spillway. Must be able to handle an "emergency", Correct.
Juan, I'm not sure exactly what you changed in your re-edit, but your understanding of the MSW and ESW maximum capacities and the rationale behind the numbers still needs further clarification. The ORIGINAL Oroville dam design/construction report (text on page 92, diagram on page 99), called for the MSW to pass a maximum of 150K CFS when res elevation was at 865ft, rising to a maximum of 270K CFS when res elevation rose to 901ft (due to increased head pressure). If res elevation rose another 19ft, the MSW max capacity rose to 300K CFS. The chart on page 99 shows the ESW capacity is 0 CFS at 901 and rises to 450K CFS at 920ft. Together their combined capacity is 750K. However, the actual specs were set with 5 ft of freeboard on the dam itself, for a combined capacity of about 650K CFS, which is what is on the brass plaque on top of the dam. Let me explain the text on page 92 that describes the two types of floods. 1. Standard Project Flood (1 in 450yr event with max inflow of 440K CFS) 2. Probable Maximum Flood (1 in more than 10K yr event with max inflow of 720K CFS). In both cases the assumption is that they start with 750K acre feet of reserve capacity (about 865ft res level), giving them some buffer. During SPF they'd run the MSW up to 150K in hopes that inflow drops below that before buffer capacity runs out. But if the water threatens to overtop ESW then can increase MSW to as much as much as 270K (not to exceed inflows). The goal during SPF is to keep flow through Feather river at Yuba river convergence to no more than 180K CFS to prevent over-topping downstream levees. During PMF event assumption is MSW would run at full capacity while ESW overtops and when water is 16ft over ESW the total combined capacity is somewhere between 624K-650K CFS. The goal during PMF is to save the dam from total destruction (and resultant catastrophic tsunami), and it is assumed that downstream flooding would be extensive, but recoverable. Yes this would be roughly equivalent to having original feather river at extreme flood stage with no dam, but better than that plus draining the whole res at once. The latest BOC report introduces one more type of flood.. Interim project flood which is about 300K CFS. That calls for 270K CFS from MSW and 30K CFS over ESW. At completion of project though, they want to be able to handle the full PMF scenario.
FWIW, the original design/construction report I'm referring to is at archive.org/stream/zh9californiastatew2003calirich#page/n5/mode/2up My own Oroville dam and spillway FAQ is at thud.us/wiki/index.php?n=PmWiki.OrovilleDamAndSpillwayFAQ which contains the link above, along with the spillway flow ratings diagram rotated and made much more clear, taken from that original document.
Daemn42 as in damn good work! I believe you are referring to CA DWR Bulletin 200 "California State Water Project" Vol. 3 published in 1974. Anyone downstream of Oroville Dam with a technical mind should read it and explain it to their neighbors. Thanks Juan for putting me on to that doc in a previous video. archive.org/stream/zh9californiastatew2003calirich#page/n5/mode/2up
Juan, but neither the original design nor the BOC reports state or even imply that the the goal is to have ESW cover in case of MSW failure. Their ratings are always based on the assumption that MSW is working and they work in conjunction with each other. The PMF ratings they're throwing out today are the same as they were 50 years ago.
Jake, yes that is the one. I didn't link to it in my first reply because it was likely to get blocked as spam. There's an immense amount of useful information in that document. I found that pulling the diagrams out and rotating them to make em readable really helps as well.
Kudos Jaun Brown. Actual "reporting". No bragging about being first, no claims of having some kind of "exclusive", no exaggeration, no attempt to amaze us with your brilliant insight. You organize information with limited editorial. You know the facts are interesting enough without embellishment. You reveal your sources so we can go see for ourselves. You tell me what you think, what find interesting, without trying to persuade me to see things the same way you do. All those pontificating talking heads on cable and network television could learn a thing or two from you.
An emergency spillway that can handle 371,000 cfs built without control gates? I'm not tracking... Why not simply admit that Oroville Dam needs for a second gated spillway for safety redundancy?
For safety, large dams are required to have a completely self-operating/no-moving-parts emergency spillway. This is to allow the dam to maintain its own pool level in the event that the dam staff are unable to operate a gated spillway. Think of the emergency spillway as a last-ditch line of defense when the gated spillway is broken or when people aren't around to operate the gated spillway (civil war, pandemic, or other disaster natural or man-made).
My bet is the cost of repairing and rebuilding the Oroville dam complex will cost the taxpayers a billion dollars. Upgrades were needed but the negligence of not maintaining infrastructure should be a crime rather than an "oops".
While I agree that our nation's lack of infrastructure spending is a national shame, there's a limit to how much maintenance will help the things we simply didn't know 50 years ago. The things that fundamentally led to the failure of the spillway (construction and design practices) were accepted as entirely suitable when the dam was built. Structural engineering has since had an additional 50 years of watching big things fall down (which is how engineers learn things) and we've learned that no, in fact 1 layer of rebar, building on top of soils rather than solid rock, etc really aren't going to work out in the long run. Those aren't the kind of things that are addressable through a planned preventative maintenance program. Those are issues that can only be addressed by tearing the spillway out and building a new one.
+blancolirio Maybe just me ( def ! ! ! ) and my severe, late stage, terminal ADD ... but I'm not really paying attention right now ... instead I am intensively examining the back yard ... wondering about stuff like _this_ ... ... If 'Indiana Browne' would just move a little more to the right, I could get a better look at the patio furniture and figure out what that shiny red thing with the big blue dots is ... ... Wait ... How many sailboats are there, anyway ? ! ... ... Wait ... What's that folding table doing out there on the walkway ... Could we get a close up on that and the stuff under it ? ... ... I _can't_ be the only one who hasn't imagined toasting marshmallows over Juan's fire pit while listening to Aram Bedrosian ... O I know, I know ... I know what you're thinking { _not a clue_ ) but _no worries !_ ... I most certainly _will_ give account of my thoughts on your home interior press room in an upcoming *blancolirio* release. xD
You're hilarious! I'm with you, the background details hold as much weight for me as does the focal points. I was wondering what kind of animal was sitting on the step walkway on the right (seen in low res on small phone screen to meter data plan) until it remained motionless. Then I admired the slanted fencing of the deck and then wondered where the hot tub was. Many deep thoughts were mined here.
╔╗╔═╦╗ *_You_* are totally hilarious right back ! ... _Wait_ ... How the heck did I miss the *_animal ???!!!_* ║╚╣║║╚╗ ... 'wondering where the hot tub was' ... 'deep thoughts mined here' ... pretty sure this means ╚═╩═╩═╝ we are ... essentially ... *_BRILLIANT !_*
iCarillon inChrist Hahaha!! I love you! Well, on my teeny-tiny window to Life with Indiana Browne here, I thought the edifice to the right was a large calico cat. But then perspective dictated the scale was too big. Probably a garden statue, like a frog or gnome. I'll go ahead and hypothesize that the black ball with red & blue dots is a compact aerial device Juan uses to travel with. Or maybe not.
Progress on rebuilding the I-85 viaduct in Atlanta: Three weeks after the fire and they are starting to pour the roadbed. www.fox5atlanta.com/news/250342436-story
"pay no attention to that man behind the curtain" ( as juan walks over and pulls the curtain open ) ha ha ha ha oh my g... you make me chuckle every time you nudge the DWR to just talk as if we're all adults and not children . thank you . lmao
off topic ? If I may... What kind of truck does a professional dirt bike riding pilot drive? Love the updates excellent work and a great public service. Thank you.
I like to carry the KTM 350 on a carrier on the back of the old Toyota 4 Runner, and camp inside the truck, while still doing freeway speeds carrying instead of trailering the bike.
Right on as Always. Thanks so Much.. You must be bucking for the other Browns, Which I am sure you could do a Better Job of.. Just with Your, Honesty and Dedication, And Information, You provide all of us concerned with Overall Dam Quagmire,...
Another informative report, great job. Thanks for keeping us in the know. Looking for up to date info that would help me make a intelligent decision regarding the present & future. Living in Evacuation Area 1A I'm keeping my eyes open. Thanks again, from Oroville, Ca.
Viktor Schauberger did the math on all this back in 1898 on his run-of-course implossion turbine project on the Rienfelden river, the general contractor was Emil Rathenau. Making water do something it does not want to do is just asking for trouble. Water wants to curve.
re: editorial revision control, nb "Two options are being studied in the planning of this potion" typo on page 5 (should read 'portion') ... cue the The Sorcerer's Apprentice sound track from Disney's Fantasia, chuckle.
Juan, this is a private comment. You are the advertisment going for American Airlines. That said I have a question about the American Stroller air incident. It was reported in only one place that American upgraded that lady to first class gave her a refund on her ticket and a thousand dollar coupon...if so then some HERO stepped into a real scene and did the right thing. That if it is true that is a great human touch, empathy for a real life and the best example of making bad things better at the moment not later after disastrously worded tweets and unfeeling comments to the press. So if you know that those things..upgrade to first class etc. then the folks on the ground did great with an unfortunate situation... So. I like to think if you had been there you would have made everything better for the lady and her babies. I have the greatnest faith in your and your humanity, a great father and husband, neighbor to the world via youtube. Happy trails.
I stumbled across your channel a couple months ago searching for updates on the dam. I live in upstate NY so I use you as my updates but I must say I enjoy all your videos I have gone and watched! I look forward to new videos from you!!! keep it up and thank you!!
It would be nice to see how much money was diverted from budget of the dam; preventing proper inspections, delaying and cancellation of necessary repairs, or shelving required upgrades.
People think CA is full of a bunch of kooks I went to the state to work in the rebuilding after Northridge I got there a few months later guess what I got to do? Not a lot of earthquake work sure there was a lot of work on houses chimneys but that huge interstate fail I got to work on some of the cleanup on that them guys are masters of disaster they know how to build and fast.
I heard a report tonight there are military tanks now stationed in Marysville. if you ever get a chance to answer those questions of why the tanks are there that would be interesting.
5000 p.s.i concrete is a strong, hot and fast setting mix. The pinning to bedrock will work unless an earthquake opens it up and then nothing can hold anything. So far Juan has it all. Best reporting of this that there is.
