"Panic in the marketplace" Mark Bouris & Stephen Koukoulas Monthly Update 

The RBA's biggest ever mistake in its history was to drop rates to 0.1%. That caused a massive increase in housing prices and a big spike in inflation. We should never have gone below 2%, because a jump from 2% to 4% is a lot smaller than a jump we've just had recently ....

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Prosperity for all Australians is part of the RBA charter , how are monstrous house prices a benefit to all Australians ? How are ridiculously high rents a benefit to Australians ?

You need to be earning a combined income of 300 k to be living a good life now in Australia

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Not a bloody mention on immigration.

For decades, higher interest rates from savings were considered good as it helped those who wanted to save. Now, this channel included, rate CUTS are advertised as a mechanism to help everyday Joe while in fact it will only help the rich to get more debt that the poor will be forced to pay for.

It is people like these podcasters that Australia is in so much economic trouble. Interest rates need to continue to go up in order to save the economy.

The "Easing" and "Tightening columns should be changed to 'Increasing" and 'Decreasing". Easing and Tightening definitions are context specific and not universal against the economic factors listed in the table

I watched there video few months ago saying rate hikes won’t go up again 😂 got no idea

Speaking of insurance, my home and contents has risen to a point where I just cannot justify or make sense of, other than pure greed. $239 per month two years ago to $459 per month….HOW. This is GIO, they have no real justification for it. You must shop around as I did. NRMA quoted me at $260 per month.

Inflation is 6-8%. Dont know how u can't see that.

People are struggling because of the compounding effect of inflation over the last few years. Not because of interest rates., though for some maybe. You're talking about 4% inflation on top of about 20% over the last 4 years. People with mortgages have seen that rise in their asset values which they can then cash in for equity to continue to spend, despite mortgage rates. Yet you complain that .25% on top of 4% in interest rates will be the straw that breaks the camels back. You only ever look at what you're interested in.

Mark B has long believed that monetary policy should be dedicated at maximizing incomes of housing lenders.

I can tell you why interest rates need to go up. House prices are still going up. Simple.

The current inflation rate is about 50% above the RBA target rate of 2.5% .

I think the govt have told the RBA not to mention GDP per capita...lol

Well based on the traffic in Brisbane over the last several days, South East QLD is booming. Up at Noosa on the weekend, things were busy! It's not school holidays and it's winter! And Brisbane house prices are still going up 16% annualized. I suspect we need a rate rise.

There is panic because they realise the rates aren't going back to 0.1 😅

Regardless of all this, Australia's major cities from now on will always stupidly be some of the most expensive places to live in.

Food prices under control??? 2 grapefruit 2 oranges and 4 apples cost me $14!.... 😢

I'm not sure this guy has assessed the risk of stagflation, if our inflation is now cause by economic decline instead of economic prosperity then we're in for higher rates to prevent declining currency and capital outflows. Could be a very bumpy ride.

THEY obviously dont know that chicken was $9.99 a kilo last year and its now nearly $20.00 %%%%%%%%%

Love Stephen Koukoulas, I wish he was on more often! The point about Consumer confidence is not talk enough and thank you for bring it up. I have check the chart, 80 levels reading happened in early 1990s, 2008-2009, covid 2020, and November 2022 to now....

Id just like to go out for a coffee with Steve and chat about the general state of the economy and hear his sweet patient voice. That is if hes the same in person as he is on this channel? If its possible please reply back here. You guys sound real and friends of the past together👍

This seems like the worst period. Even the market are now very unpredictable. Started investing recently when the market prices were a bit high,today I am more than 60% down!

Turkey has an inflation of 67%. We have 3.6% or thereabouts. What planet is the RBA on ?

The other RBA strategy is this... Keep rates higher for longer in comparison to other nations particularly USA to appreciate the AUD and then you import disinflation on consumer goods, agricultural inputs, fuels, etc. The AUD has jumped 3c in a week or two... We need to remember the forex market is many, many times larger than the world's share markets.

With all due respect and please I’m asking wlth sincerity … what happens if the rba slash the interest % 2 fuel drops to $1.40?? What would happen? Would we fuel the economy by spending more which is better for all economies ? I also saw a leading global economist explaining inflation causes inflation? Is this true could someone share some insight

@21:20 - 10 years ago this discussion would of slowed the crazy growth of property in Sydney by increasing interest rates sooner. However, the challenge is managing peaks and troughs as Melbourne has a slow market and Perth has a hot one. Not all markets are equal.

I was told by a well connected Sydney finance guy that retail rates were going to be hiked to around 7% within a year or two. That was mid 2021. I thought he had rocks in his head, and said that will never happen because it would obliterate the economy. And, here we are. I wish that I’d taken him more seriously and fixed rates for 5 years.

Defo high interest rates up, pull the horse up on immigration.

So why not age bracket the cash rate? The older you are with on average higher access to funds and disposable income the higher the cash rate the bank assesses you on.

Can someone tell me why petrol prices are cheaper in country areas than they are in the major cities? It has always been the opposite as country areas had cartage etc factored into the price. Was on holiday recently and saw it for myself. Whats the go here?

These guys just talk absolute nonsense. I feel dumber for even watching 5 minutes as it popped up as a suggested video. The only thing they know and may get right is what coffee they will order over the counter. Dumb n Dumber economics 👍🏼🤣🤦🏻‍♂️

Did he just say food prices are good?

Very insightful...Thank you lads. Some advice fix focus on your board and turn off autofocus....😵‍💫

Great board position. Thanks Mark & Stephen

Yes the lag factor has to be considered, when unemployment numbers are rising. Many people would be close to have exhausted their buffer savings, so could be approaching a tipping point in terms of their capacity to absorb further rate rises. They would want to aviod a market collapse. The concept of state based interest rates is an interesting topic. Perhaps cigarettes should not be included. In fact I would suggest only fresh vegetables and meat, dairy, gas, electriicity, fuel and medical costs should be included.

Oh man - had to drop what I charge to what it was years ago when everything was still 50% cheaper 😢😢😢. People are struggling, and many businesses are shutting down - they can't wait any more 😢😢😢

Include land in the CPI calculation. It is the item causing the issues we are feeling right now...

You’ve managed to explain the current economic state In a way that equals what is realistically happening out here with the punters without gaslighting us into thinking ‘it’s not that bad’ and in a way I understand. I actually watched the whole thing, put down my phone i was playing games on and my eyes didn’t glaze over.

What about getting a fair share from all those LNG Exports and other resources we give away for literally pittance compared to other countries who export resources??? Why not have a tax system like Norway where the revenue you receive goes into a sovereign fund?? Why not keep some of that GAS for local use and bring down energy costs?? It is ridiculous that energy companies are hiking gas prices in august when we have literally gas coming out of our ears??? Don't give us the BS that taxing would discourage investment!! Norway taxes natural resources like oil and gas 78% and they are still begging to invest there!

You could also stop paying rich people 5% interest because of high interest rates so rich people will stop spending!

I just want to say a huge thanks for this podcast. Such valuable information!

The interest rate cost for Australia borrowing money on the overseas market will determine the national interest rate.

The government need to pause overseas migration and foreign property investment by 1, 2 or possibly even 3 years until our domestic economy can catch up . Yes it will destroy our GDP number and technically this will cause an economic recession on paper however this would be for the greater good for us all long term. There simply aren't enough houses being built to meet the population demand and the flow on effect is brutal. The government have failed us in this department and they are not acting quick enough to fix the problem.

We should look at inflation per state, inflation is probably sticky due to the fact that the increased interest rates put considerably more pressure on Sydney mortgages. You can’t hose down consumer spending in the nation by hitting NSW hard and going light on the rest of the country. The cost of living is disproportionate in Sydney compared to the rest of the country. The RBA scratching their heads what a bunch of dills.

The GDP deflator is the other measure of inflation, not just CPI.

How you could talk about inflation for an hour without mentioning energy prices and relagating food prices as a secondary consideration is beyong me. Only 30% of Australians have a mortgage and 20% of those own more than one property. Also why only refer to iron ore when discussing export revenue? Coal and Gas exports provide more than double the tax revenue of iron and that is increasing while iron ore revenue is rapidly decreasing from a peak in 2022.

many people in Australia are secretly proud of housing prices, and will do anything to keep them increasing! Pity the poor mugs reliant on home loans, but that is the country!

the interest on savings well and truly makes up for inflation. Hoping they keep raising interest rates.

The stimulus checks were the wrong thing to do, to cover up the wrong decision to lockdown.

The poor old RBA can't put a foot right! Prices are out of control. and some groceries are not available any longer! I keep looking for olive oil at a reasonable price. Just not available. Australia is between a rock and a hard place, but venues such as gambling and sport continue to rake in the profits!

you guys are talking about jobs as an important point and something people are ignoring (which it is) but jobs have a whole lot of parameters that feed into it. We are not the Australia of yester-years where the industries needed bodies to do work. Our manufacturing is gone, alot of tech industries are outsourced, there is starting to be a shift into AI to reduce existing roles and hire less, the business I run uses it a lot and it has such an effect in our industry that we can reduce our hiring by a huge number, so looking at jobs also - (like inflation) isn't as simple as it used to be. Reducing the rates and expecting businesses to pump ( as they used to before ) might not be the case this time. It could marginly for some industries but for many others the rate of employment in those will stay as they are and even start to fall. The only thing that lowering rates will help pump, is the building industry, which seems to be all Australia has. Everthing else will keep reducing and going offshore, so the problem is a lot deeper then just the inflation number and the employment number. The levers dont work how they used to and Australia has not re-adapted those levers - unemployment will be a rising number in the years to come simply cause industry has changed and Australia has not. Im not going to say what the band aid is but sometimes its just easier to let things rip and take that band aid off fast. Over the long term, productivity numbers, job numbers aren't going to look any better and GDP, that will just reflect people spending due to their assets increasing but not through actual real value generated from exports.

The fact house prices are not there, because inflation is way higher than we are assuming because of house prices. thats why im saying higher interest rates for longer.. stagflation for sure

You economists don't count home prices into the CPI, otherwise inflation is more like 15-20%!!! Not 3-4%!!! Interest rates must hit 10%!

Sure, here's a revised version: --- I'm confused. A few months ago, you had Robert Kiyosaki discussing the world economy and seemed to agree with his views. Now, you're hoping for rate cuts? There's already too much money in the system! No more rate cuts-recessions are necessary to clear out inefficiencies. While I'm cautious about what I wish for, I believe we can't achieve a better future without a recession

No one talks about how mandates have impacting job rates.

Lockdowns and jobkeeper are the reason we’re in this mess.

Is the RBA driving Australia into Stagflation?

Australia cannot be immune from the high inflation in USA where the rates are far higher than what is being announced officially.

I think the Australian dollar should be part of that chart

Maybe the RBA increases rates by 0.15 to 4.5% 🧐

We could never fix it for 30 years 😢😢😢

Stephen emphasizes recent changes in certain activity indicators and fails to take account of position in the cycle. Because hours worked, very strong. Output gap, probably slightly positive, export income weakening off elevated levels. And he fails to take account of the forecast horizon. The RBA wants inflation inside the target band by at least the end of 2025, early 2026 and this is looking more and more difficult to achieve. Much depends on strength of CPI data come July 31.

not once was Treasury brought up in this entire conversation 😂 clear lack of depth/knowledge in this dialogue

if the interest rate is increased our dollar gets better and this would effect the price of petrol!

Food prices are weak?! Do you guys shop? Do you go to butchers and supermarkets? Inflation is minimum 10% on everyday goods. Employment growth is based on government NDIS expenditure. Private industry is in recession. Professional services are in recession. We have been in a recession for a year.

The Kouk ‘I can’t find anything strong but inflation’ 😂😂 lol….THE RBA MANDATE IS INFLATION!! What a dick.

A banker and economist talking about humanitarianism, in case anyone didn’t realise these videos are pure satire…

Modern society is so awful. I will never understand how people can bring children into this disgusting situation.

Yeah Americans with long term fixed rates arent affected, but someone loses as its made the banks balance sheets go underwater. Bank crisis is looming in America.

Rate movements are done to strengthen or weaken a currency.. nothing more

House price go up

the strayan debt economy..blah blah blah..bring house prices down and we would not have been worried about 4% interest rates

It's all Greek to me....

I like where Mark Bouris is coming from..... The current formula is broken..... Raising Interest Rates is like hitting a nail in with a Stiletto.... Hit and miss... With more miss.. Make the GST Dynamic.... Everyone has forgotten that is was designed to be a broad based Tax.... RBA interest rate movements targets ~34% of the economy.... The GST targets 100%....

Corruption. What are they talking about about.😂

it's😂 called fudging , like you both know , but wont say or admit

These pelicans never get anything right! It's all guess work...

Greedy investors

I CANT STAND BOURIS

Go up 3% get back to the real world 🥱