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People Are Still Too Worried About A Recession | BCG Chief Economist Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak 

Blockworks Macro
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2 окт 2024

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Комментарии : 122   
@BlockworksHQ
@BlockworksHQ 3 месяца назад
Forward Guidance is sponsored by Van Eck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at vaneck.com/MOATFG
@bretts2320
@bretts2320 3 месяца назад
We’re in a recession. It’s not that we’re too worried. It’s that we are being lied to.
@jjoonathan7178
@jjoonathan7178 3 месяца назад
Hope you weren't putting your money where your mouth is. If so... my condolences.
@BatmanBoss
@BatmanBoss 3 месяца назад
But models and stuff! Numbers and models and stuff say everything is great!
@1ntrcnnctr608
@1ntrcnnctr608 3 месяца назад
prepare for solar flare!!!!
@fernmoss-456
@fernmoss-456 3 месяца назад
People who makes less than 75k a year in coastal cities are absolutely in recession. Cost of living is through the roof.
@dogetaxes8893
@dogetaxes8893 3 месяца назад
I swear this statement comes from a beartard pretty much every year, and then when a recession does occur they move the goal posts and start calling for a second Great Depression. It’s the bears bread and butter.
@kristii_86
@kristii_86 3 месяца назад
As always, a great analysis. Newcomers often wonder if it's too late to navigate the financial market, but the market is always unpredictable. Trading has more advantages than simply holding, so it's important to learn before diving in. Active trades are necessary to ride the market's waves. Thanks to Whitney Eston insights, daily trade signals, and my dedication to learning, I've been increasing my daily earnings, managed to grow a nest egg of around 127k to a decent 532k. Kudos to the journey ahead!
@kristii_86
@kristii_86 3 месяца назад
She's mostly interacts on Telegrams, using the user-name...
@kristii_86
@kristii_86 3 месяца назад
@WhitneyEston
@AnthonyFisher951
@AnthonyFisher951 3 месяца назад
Reason i invest in the crypto market; to make my money work for me, to prevent inflation from eroding my savings.
@CatherineMason425
@CatherineMason425 3 месяца назад
A better way is to get proper guide!!!! The most important thing is the technicality and Whitney Eston keeps proven herself.
@kbs734-j8n
@kbs734-j8n 3 месяца назад
Building a good investment portfolio is more complex so I would recommend you seek Whitney support.
@PetersonFred970
@PetersonFred970 3 месяца назад
*Larry Burkett's book on "Giving and Tithing" drew me closer to God and helped my spirituality. 2020 was a year I literally lived it. I cashed in my life savings and gave it all away. My total giving amounted to 40,000 dollars. Everyone thought I was delusional. Today, 1 receive 85,000 dollars every two months. I have a property in Calabasas, CA, and travel a lot. God has promoted me more than once and opened doors for me to live beyond my dreams. God kept to his promises to and for me*
@HTAlexis
@HTAlexis 3 месяца назад
There's wonder working power in following Kingdom principles on giving and tithing. Hallelujah!
@LoriReynolds000
@LoriReynolds000 3 месяца назад
But then, how do you get all that in that period of time? What is it you do please, mind sharing?
@AmyCallahan80
@AmyCallahan80 3 месяца назад
It is the digital market. That's been the secret to this wealth transfer. A lot of folks in the US and abroad are getting so much from it, God has been good to my household Thank you Jesus
@AmyCallahan80
@AmyCallahan80 3 месяца назад
Big thanks to Ms. Chisty Fiore❤️✨💯May God bless Christy Fiore services,she have changed thousands of lives globally
@SibleBullington
@SibleBullington 3 месяца назад
How can I start this digital market, any guidelines and how can I reach out to her?
@garrettpatten6312
@garrettpatten6312 3 месяца назад
This guy just chooses not to believe what real people say (household survey) and instead believes cooked books.
@bpb5541
@bpb5541 3 месяца назад
Well said. GDP, CPI, Umeployment all of it have been cooked.
@coop-us7tp
@coop-us7tp 3 месяца назад
As a person with considerable visibility across much of the manufacturing sector east of the Mississippi, I can say with certainty that there has been considerable weakness in B2B and B2C business since mid-Q1. I've seen medium-large companies do large layoffs, be late paying bills, freeze engineering spend on new projects, and reduce/delay orders for input components. This is widespread, not isolated to specific sub-sectors or regions. The financial professional types keep pushing the "all is well" narrative, but as a 'boots on the ground' guy I must strongly disagree. I have my theories to explain the disparity, but that'd be a book of a reply.
@l.christoffersen7502
@l.christoffersen7502 3 месяца назад
Most of my portfolio is biotech and I've been getting slaughtered all year. We're definitely in a recession in some areas, but it's very uneven, the AI bubble is sucking up a lot of the money while other sectors and small cap stocks are hurting. It's easy to look at the overall average and say we're not in a recession but when reality kicks in and the AI narrative has to take a setback I think we might finally see a correction in some of these insane valuations among the large tech companies that are carrying the market.
@coop-us7tp
@coop-us7tp 3 месяца назад
@@l.christoffersen7502 Biotech will recover nicely when rate cuts begin
@garrettpatten6312
@garrettpatten6312 3 месяца назад
Payroll survey shows people having 2-3 jobs and people who didnt want to work being forced back into the work place.
@garrettpatten6312
@garrettpatten6312 3 месяца назад
This guy knows nothing about the real world. spending is up because we have to buy over priced food & basic services we must have. look at what the actual customer facing businesses are saying about consumer spending.
@SP-cx2qi
@SP-cx2qi 3 месяца назад
The numbers are all showing things are going up, but it could actually be that your purchasing power is going down. I believe prices are actually showing currency devaluation.
@dialecticalmonist3405
@dialecticalmonist3405 3 месяца назад
He lives in another world. It's crazy.
@bpb5541
@bpb5541 3 месяца назад
Look up the small buisness survey... it was bad, really bad.
@OzlemFatih-jp7lu
@OzlemFatih-jp7lu 3 месяца назад
Do you think XAI44X will pump before ETH?
@Jean-Luc-sh2pg
@Jean-Luc-sh2pg 3 месяца назад
this is why consultants aren't investors. right here.
@josxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
@josxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 2 месяца назад
crazy right? the amount of nothingness that is heard. consultant myself here
@stevenmix3723
@stevenmix3723 3 месяца назад
Price to Sales are nearly twice what they were at the 2007 peak, before the giant crash. I don't see how that means that people are worried about any recession today. They are obviously buying more stocks, without worry.
@Nate-ef8dz
@Nate-ef8dz Месяц назад
I really appreciate the dedication in each video you post. To be successful one has to have multiple income streams and so on, also investors should understand the crossover between asset classes & liquidity flow, joanna claire focuses on Multi-asset trading, a single strategy to manage risk, profit, and the code or the actual decision-making across multi-asset classes. Her skills set is top notch
@Handle35667
@Handle35667 3 месяца назад
Coastal cities in Liberal jurisdictions are in a recession. Midwest states in Conservative jurisdictions are not in a recession. The rest of the cities vary, but follow a similar pattern to the Coastal vs. Midwest cities.
@anamaxa
@anamaxa 3 месяца назад
I feel like he's dressing it up as "Judgement call," but actually just advocating for gobbly goop. lol
@vdanger7669
@vdanger7669 3 месяца назад
This is fine
@dialecticalmonist3405
@dialecticalmonist3405 3 месяца назад
That guy is living in another world.
@qazwsxedc964
@qazwsxedc964 3 месяца назад
how on earth is nominal gdp growth exceeding nominal interest rates of debt levels now >.< debt to gdp is a criteria for downgrade by S&P. Gosh this guy is deluded...
@bpb5541
@bpb5541 3 месяца назад
13 of the last 15 countries lost reserve status if they went over 130% debt to GDP. The offical number put us above 120% right now. I think it is way worse. I don't believe their numbers. What this guy is talking about is moot.
@garrettpatten6312
@garrettpatten6312 3 месяца назад
Wage growth was only strong in the 18-26 yo age range. people with homes and children are getting wrecked.
@davidmann2524
@davidmann2524 3 месяца назад
And it's still not enough to keep up witu the needs section of CPI so they are getting hammered the most...pretty much anyone that hasn't owned a home for longer than 10 years, is asset rich, or is upper 20% of income is getting killed.
@UfukKivanc
@UfukKivanc 3 месяца назад
The XAI44X bullrun is where 10x 20x 50x all is possible. Keep thinking about how that is possible with BTC or ETH, because it is not.
@ScottRuark-q8x
@ScottRuark-q8x Месяц назад
Debt is the reality right now and servicing the debt is real-growth rate of the economy is something we hope for in the future. We don’t have growth if you back out all federal/state/ local government spending- because this spending is double counting because the government took it from the private sector where it has been counted already as gdp- did he say we could have lower deficits in the near future, maybe a decent economist but not qualified to analyze political/legislative issues. Jack we will find out the limit of how much debt we can carry and I believe the number is a whole lot higher than we can imagine albeit with dollar debasement and structural inflation
@Hueyck
@Hueyck 3 месяца назад
1:14:00 Latin America’s ISI (import substitution industrialization) is the historical example. Yes we can make all these goods but it’s a question of whether we have a competitive advantage. It also depends how industrialization is implemented there were mostly failures but some successes in Latin America when there was adequate domestic competition. The issue I see with build back better and chips act is that it’s repeating past mistakes and not creating enough competition. So we may end up with industries that produce goods domestically but aren’t particularly good at it so they can’t compete outside of the domestic market. So you take money from productive sectors and transfer to unproductive industry. End result in that scenario could be higher inflation. I think Boeing may be a good example of why the US has lost its way. One company with no competitors is going to not produce planes where the doors don’t fall off midair due to perverse incentives - why should I produce better quality if I’m unlikely to lose market share.
@dialecticalmonist3405
@dialecticalmonist3405 3 месяца назад
Is this guy suggesting that inflation is NOT 30+% ? I have no idea what he is even trying to say. It's like he's living in his own private world. In which world is inflation not 30%???
@davidfrankel9267
@davidfrankel9267 3 месяца назад
Hindsight is 20/20. His explanations are just way too convenient after the fact. Who says things like this as it really happens? No one.
@timjkinney3472
@timjkinney3472 3 месяца назад
Another example of dog Ford incredible business acumen next he'll be causing the whole province to close down
@mattsmith8497
@mattsmith8497 3 месяца назад
I think Jack was spot on in emphasizing the importance of the myriad of data that is available to investors about markets & the economy and the role that it plays in distorting reality. This growing universe of data as well as the wide availability of said data has created a paradox whereby we are more confused than ever about reality when it seems like we should be able to precisely predict say where the Dow will be trading six months from now or what nonfarm payrolls will be this friday. Phillipps point about the motivation of journalists is accurate, no doubt, but journalists have acted this way since time immemorial. General confusion seems to be on the rise and I think this paradox plays a large part in it
@TM-fr7gh
@TM-fr7gh 3 месяца назад
No recession in eurozone? Bruh Right wing parties literally rising because of hardship
@FilizFeyza
@FilizFeyza 3 месяца назад
XAI44X is for small and big bags the best one. In 2024 finally we see big comebacks of real names
@rjdebruyn
@rjdebruyn 2 месяца назад
Anyone who asks their own questions and then incorrectly answers them in the same sentence are usually not credible and are stretching to convince their audience.
@alg589s
@alg589s 2 месяца назад
F!cking bullish!t from start to finish. A cheerleader for the corporate America.
@danielscott1409
@danielscott1409 2 месяца назад
I'd be more convinced if he said yes public debt is high but here's why it's not a problem.
@EvreGulbahar
@EvreGulbahar 3 месяца назад
If you people know XAI44X you know the future, it is green! Green and going up
@JB-ty8vf
@JB-ty8vf 2 месяца назад
🇺🇸👍🏼
@davidanalyst671
@davidanalyst671 3 месяца назад
go buy the median house, and pay the bill for having a child in a hospital, and tell me we arent in a depression
@JB-ty8vf
@JB-ty8vf 2 месяца назад
Great discussion. 🇺🇸 Diversify in Quality. 👍🏼
@AhmetSuna-kf2vb
@AhmetSuna-kf2vb 3 месяца назад
XAI44X is the future and more than just another project, it has all of it
@bombers7878
@bombers7878 3 месяца назад
A consultant? Too vibey for my liking.
@bpb5541
@bpb5541 3 месяца назад
We are in a recession right now. We have been in one since Dec 2023.
@rodneytaylor2054
@rodneytaylor2054 3 месяца назад
This guy is living in a fantasy world and most models are BS.
@bpb5541
@bpb5541 3 месяца назад
Exactly. I wonder how rosy all those models look right before the Dot Com Crash or the GFC. I am sure 99% of them said things look awesome.
@Venkatmohan2000
@Venkatmohan2000 3 месяца назад
HARD LANDING in 2025 😞
@boysenberrydracula3599
@boysenberrydracula3599 3 месяца назад
Another St Onge
@Mshev07
@Mshev07 2 месяца назад
Hamas war? Omg
@mattanderson6672
@mattanderson6672 2 месяца назад
Thank you
@qazwsxedc964
@qazwsxedc964 3 месяца назад
Always felt BCG is deluded by aggregate data...this just proves it lol
@SilverCpa
@SilverCpa 3 месяца назад
These clowns are to worried about Bitcoin.
@bpb5541
@bpb5541 3 месяца назад
What is there to worry about? It is the greatest preforming asset of all time because the Government has no control of it. It is outside their corrupt system. Those that hate on it... don't own any of it and those that love it but don't own it are hoping it comes down in price during a crash so they can buy it.
@SilverCpa
@SilverCpa 3 месяца назад
@@bpb5541 just lol. I can't even. Y'all are brain dead. Outside government control yet massive manipulated by like ten whales and corrupt exchanges, wow what an improvement! You just proved my point for me with the price comment. Bitcoin is greater fool theory incarnate. It's done shit for months even tho there's like fifty ETFs now. Buying Buttcoin . Imagine what happens when they start selling.
@DONKALLSONG
@DONKALLSONG 3 месяца назад
Uber more expensive then normal?? NOT HERE
@DoughnutswithSprinkles-wq4vo
@DoughnutswithSprinkles-wq4vo 3 месяца назад
He's right about the relative prices in NYC though.
@SureyyaAyhan-iv4ff
@SureyyaAyhan-iv4ff 3 месяца назад
XAI44X is the new and fresh AI coin! Awesome
@SerifeMustafa-in5du
@SerifeMustafa-in5du 3 месяца назад
XAI44X is the new and fresh AI coin! Awesome
@SunaNezaket
@SunaNezaket 3 месяца назад
Forget memecoins. The next king in house is XAI44X
@BilgeSamet
@BilgeSamet 3 месяца назад
XAI44X made it, finally it is there and they have one main difference to common memes
@HaticeHatice-rh9tr
@HaticeHatice-rh9tr 3 месяца назад
XAI44X making ATH after ATH 🔥🔥
@ilknurSezgi-mk5uh
@ilknurSezgi-mk5uh 3 месяца назад
Omg so bullish on XAI44X! ATH next month? 🔥
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