Living in the US I see all the factories going up. Working in medical device R&D I see and hear, “ok do that but keep it close to home”. No global supply chain. I go to Lowe’s or Home Depot and I see more India and Vietnam and Turkey and Mexico. Had a cart with $300 of products and only made in China was a pack of plastic wire ties.
@@rand314 Peter is a film flam man? What multiple businesses, organizations and agencies are paying you and your way to come back every year to hear your prospectives? Yes, no one.
@@paperandmedals8316all those “factories” in Mexico etc. have Chinese owners or are made in china and finishing touches made elsewhere to take advantage of new trade rules , new nafta, etc. just to put a stamp on the product . So yeah , china still makes the majority of things in the world by bending the rules. New globalism, ya gotta love it .
I absolutely LOVE a respectful discourse! Two smart people who can respectfully disagree and part as friends. Thank God for intelligent, polite people!
I just loved how Peter was able to counter all of the interviewers negative pre-conceived notions and to educate him with updated facts. With grace, as well.
Zeihan does speak with grace. Smooth as silk. He is a shill and bit of a flim-flam man. He pretends that his ideas will be true, so everyone will believe him and invite him to speak. He get's rich. He's wrong about a lot of what he is saying. His strength is that he was ahead of the curve in talking about demographics. He really knows demographics, but he oversells it. Despite a good base of knowledge, he is still a flim-flam man.
@@paperandmedals8316 Step 1: Point out he's wrong about "A lot of things". Step 2: Say a person should give examples. Step 3: Don't give examples yourself. Step 4: Insult the other person. Step 5: Completely fail to notice how you just contradicted yourself.
He might be that be he does something that (as an engineer) I find infuriating and that's when he CONFUSES what technologies ACTUALLY EXIST AS DEPLOYABLE SYSTEMS as in they have left the development stage and can be used with what we might have or is under development. For example his claim about AI driven robots picking fruit is *GARBAGE.* It might be something we have in the future BUT ITS NOT READY YET. This is something (as an engineer) that infuriates me because its engineers like me WHO HAVE TO WORK OUT THE DETAILS. Media commentators can make whatever claims they like because they DON'T GET HELD ACCOUNTABLE and if it doesn't work out they can BLAME OTHER PEOPLE.
Peter Zeihan is famous for his mispronunciations… His worst and continuing error, was when he unsuccessfully tried to pronounce the name of the late Wagner-leader Jevgenij Prigosjin. He apologized several times for that !
@@jaedme A lot of the viewer do - myself included. When things get too complicated and Peter Zeihan gets too clever to be understood, it is nice to fall back to old acquaintances, such as “spelling and pronunciation”
Happy I found this very nutritious discussion. Could it be possible that RU-vid is fixing their algorithm to favor enlightening discussion? They probably consider this a bug not a feature. But I digress. Thanks for posting this!
Like everything you actually like and eventually the algorithm will catch up. Unfortunately you _do_ have to like individual videos and watch to the end for the algorithm to register it. And it'll keep trying to sneak the paying channels into your feed, it'll just try to figure out which ones of those won't have you immediately looking for a different video.
I remember back in the 90s hearing that there were machines that could harvest lettuce. The reason they were not being used then was that they were more expensive than just hiring field hands to pick lettuce.
On the AI front it seems like Mr. Watson is reading Kurt Vonnegut's book "Player Piano". The first large scale business application of computing put millions out of work. Computers took over vast amounts of back-office work in areas like banking and insurance. Did unemployment go up. No. Those businesses became more efficient then offered more and better products. AI, like quantum computing, is a new capability that will augment business. Yes, it will change things, but as Mr. Zeihan points out, we will need more people on the production side. AI reminds me of big data, on which it depends, by the way. I taught technical classes on big data, and frankly had worked on it early on. There was all this talk about needing a "C-Suite" position in big companies. There was all this talk about companies using data as an asset. There was a lot of hype. In some cases, there was merit in the ideas, but they did not fundamentally change business as much as predicted.
The more I watch videos of Mr. Zeihan, the more I become convinced that his prognostications with regard to global economies fail to take into account the effects of rapidly accelerating global warming and as a consequence the likelihood that many are unlikely to come to pass. Although Mr. Zeihan is among the the few economic prognosticators who recognize the importance of both demographics and of latency effects in their analysis, he seems to have a blind spot when addressing the issue of global warming on either demographics or the latencies inherently associated with it. Unexpected effects of latency can dramatically alter expectations. The role of nuclear energy in world energy production is a good example. At one time it was expected to provide unlimited energy for everything from heating homes to powering flying cars. Although it has done much to heat and electrify homes, it has almost nowhere met initial expectations. For similar reasons, much of the hype surrounding AI should be evaluated critically, lest much disappointment ensue and not just to investors. While demographics and changes in demographics are important, demographics largely result from the carrying capacity of ecosystems that sustain populations, not the other way around. Consequently, looking a populations and their first derivatives is important, so is their second derivative, the rate at which population structures are changing. Global warming affects both and consequently it is important to recognize that demographic change itself can change very quickly in some circumstances, often faster than generation time that Mr. Zeihan likes to use in his graphs. Looking at age cohorts is effectively only looking at the first derivative of population size. As biology teaches us, population sizes are best modeled by a logistic function, rather than a general linear model. As populations reach the carrying capacity of the environments in which they find themselves, growth slows asymptotically as the carrying capacity is reached. Although in limited situations humans have been able to seemingly increase carrying capacity, such changes are small and these often eventually come by offsetting other unappreciated or unmeasured effects that eventually grow larger and curtail unlimited growth. The indisputable effects of accelerating global warming on the carrying capacity of world ecosystems arises from a number of sources. Although the physics of global warming are now well understood, the biotic consequences are not yet fully appreciated, either by the general public or the scientific community. Much focus has centered on human-induced warming that has resulted from burning fossil fuels. Underappreciated is that global warming we can expect in the future will come increasingly from natural sources largely beyond our control. Because we as a species have burned far too much fossil fuels for far too long, the Earth atmosphere has now reached and exceeded tipping points at which natural sources of carbon are more substantially influencing the Earth's energy budget. These include an accelerating loss of albedo resulting from the loss of glacial ice, the increase of methane production resulting from the melting of permafrost, the sublimation of methane bound in marine clathrates, and the deforestation of tropical and temperate forests resulting from increased wildfires associated with desiccation from higher temperatures, higher soil temperatures that affect root transport, and human land use/abuse. Each of these sources is larger than all the carbon put into the atmosphere by humans since the industrial revolution. As a result of accelerating global warming, historical demographic trends will be of limited use in estimating how demography will change in the future. Although wars do show their effects, such effects can be relatively small compared to natural variation that can result from the collective effects climatic change, that manifests itself in persistent droughts, flooding, or biotic disruptions such as the recent global Covid-19 pandemic. Mr. Zeihan makes an expectation that the US should look to Mexico to address its economic challenges posed by demography. He goes further to predict that the big boon that will transform US and Mexican relations. Although we can all hope that the benefits of such economic development can overcome the hate machine that the GOP and Fox News have transformed themselves into for power and profits, even doing so will not substantially alter the reality that the availability of water will greatly limit such development. Already, Mexico City is experiencing water shortages that all known science practically assures will get worse. Likewise, Mr. Zeihans's prediction of the demise of China relative to the US, fail to take into account that in many economic sectors China is greatly exceeding the rate of decarbonization of its economy in many sectors. In transportation China produces more electric cars, buses and rail than the US by 6.5, 77,124 times respectively. The same is true for both solar and wind energy production at 3.0 and 2.5 times more respectively. Given the grip of the fossil fuel industry on US politics and the resulting economic inertia, the disparity is only likely to grow dramatically, all the while trade between Mexico and China is growing rapidly and now stands at about $129,490,000,000, while the GOP is busy signaling it intends to wage war in Mexico. The consequences of these facts can be debated, but they are facts or at a minimum close approximations to facts. One could go on to question his prediction that India's biggest economic problem is not having cooperative neighbors, while ignoring rapid changes to monsoonal climate patterns in South Asia. Consequently, there are ample reasons to question Mr. Zeihan's predictions. Nonetheless, I would look forward to his revised models incorporating what will be massive effects of accelerating global warming that threatens to end agriculture and fisheries within a few more decades, as well as bring the increasing specter of more lethal wet-bulb temperatures in much of the tropics in decades to come. In any event, it is important to recognize that future prognostications right or wrong will have much greater consequence than those made previously, because accelerating global warming means that time is rapidly running out for humanity to get it right and make the right choices.
If you had part time jobs for older people you would have much less labor shortage most old people are old and are turining into old and poor and for some of us hungry but rich bosses don’t want to trouble themselves just destroy social security good for more social unrest
Requiring old people to work in daycares to help raise the future generation in order to get their social security would be a fantastic way of utilizing old people's labor/wisdom while freeing up the young to do more valuable and more demanding tasks.
Everyone was / is wrong on Ukraine / russia , not just Peter Zeihnan . Ukraine will be victorious and russia will lose and seise existing. Nobody could predict this
He is mostly wrong about everything,but nobody realy cares as long he tells people what they want to hear and hes acting like a cool guy!Hes a big dramaqueen to.,but thats how you can get the big money!
USA should look at the entire central america make the investments needed to get the cheaper labor but FAIR for the local people. This would help us from the national security side. The more jobs available in central america the less the title wave of ilegal immigration would be, you would increase margins for america companies doing the investments and a fair pay for labor in the region would definitely increase quality of life for the locals.
Who is going to shop at all the Wal-Marts, Costcos, buy cars, smart phones, rent real estate, prop up teacher's unions, and finance all of the top 20 industries in the US with the birth rate decline?
@@LRRPFco52 I'm not saying stop immigration.....we are a nation of immigrants. I'm referring to the manufacturing and supply chain issues that we currently have. We should no longer be so dependent on China. Some of the supply chain investments should be done in central America for the benefit of the locals and American supply chain. This would help fight inflation, decress pressure on the border, create jobs to locals and benefit American companies in the process .
@@luisfernandosantosmora1000 Best thing we could do is bring in as many South African Boers into the US with expedited papers. To be eligible for immigration from other places, you should need to demonstrate competency and some level of English literacy, as well as some skilled labor in manufacturing or construction.
Lewellen Gabby Gaberstein used this interview to mostly try and validate his thinking. This should be retitled: "Peter Zeihan - Supports My Paradygm.....Mostly". Lost interest midway.
I agree with him on what he said about the unions… they are stuck in the 1930’s I thought that when I saw the way the union representive acted over the questions asked of the senator. Don’t get me wrong I am pro union and am a retired union worker. And I want blue collar jobs to re shore. But for gosh sake it’s been 80 years since the 30’s.
Excellent interview. But I really did get the feeling at a few points that Mr. King was regretting the way that "British style Colonialism" has fallen out of favor these days. I don't know his age, but he clearly has some viewpoints that calcified quite a few decades ago.
Zeihan is a grifter. I wish RU-vid would stop promoting his click-bait garbage. They're continually putting his crap into my recommendations even though I downvote each one, mark the channel as "Don't Recommend" and nuke all trace of it from my history. They keep coming back. I bet there's money involved. The sure mark of some sort of scam.
If a 50 person chip-critical company is located in a country that's collapsing somehow, why can't we just move all 50 of them and their equipment to Texas and get them back up and running in 6 months? Bit harder with something like a chip fab (they're huge), but seems like the smaller bits of the semi supply chain could be wholesale relocated to stable ground.
I'm not sure you need high end chips for ai, or even for robotics which is related but not quite the same. You can probably use general purpose chips, you just need more of them, and they'll eat more power, generate more heat, and probably go a bit slower. But if the thing runs 24-7 what's the rush? Also, going for a basic living stipend based on resource extraction would make a dent in the not enough consumers problem, at an aparrent but possibly not real expense to whoever has been sucking most of the wealth out of that resource extraction in the past. We probably ought to make a vastly expanded project paperclip part of our immigration policy.
anything that requires physical labor cant be replaced by AI. At most AI might replace a bunch of tech workers and call centers. This makes up only a couple % of the workforce. AI isnt going to do an oil change on your car or build the shed in your backyard
This video should become training material and mandatory viewing by TV anchors in India who host those so called "debates"..!!! It proves different opinions can be respectfully expressed without turning oneself into dogs and cats clawing over a bone...!!! Arnab Goswami, please see and learn 🙏
People have forgotten where they came from! Ive noticed that the Labor industries don't allow fathers to bring their sons to work anymore like before that's how I got into auto mechanics electrical welding ECT that was a big mistake the United states made,! It use to be 15 you were allowed to take ur kids to work during summer break
Mr. Watson's comments on Mexico vis-a-vis China and the workforce shows a lack of knowledge of what is going on in China. Most of the workers in the massive industrial plants, especially ones doing electronics assembly, are poor peasants. China has been mostly working on the low end of the industrial chain. They have yet to, as is said, move up the value chain like the Japanese, Koreans and Taiwanese. So, moving production to Mexico for those types of jobs is eminently possible. This also applies to other areas like south and central America.
If you look up some videos, you can see that the low end electronics jobs only exist because the wages are low. In areas with raised wages, automation is already in place and the jobs improve. Mexico will probably benefit from more automated electronic production without abusing their poor peasants
@@thetaomega7816 Well duh! What is also true is that automation is very expensive. It is expensive to buy, expensive to set up and expensive to maintain. Then there is the product cycle. Every time you change the product you have to change the automation system. That can be annually for something like iPhones. So, the economics of it is completely different. There are products where it makes sense to automate, and those where it does not. As for abusing the poor peasants, come on man. Give me a break. Is living in a poor farming area a panacea? Does anyone force those poor peasants to move to the city for a production job? Read a little history. Why do you think that all those people in the UK moved to the city during the industrial revolution? We see the conditions as being bad but look at where they came from. The same is true for blacks in the US moving up from the deep south to northern cities. Why haven't all those people gone back? To what. Life as a sharecropper? Have you ever seen a sharecropper's shack? RU-vid videos can have some value, but if you get your information primarily from them then you will be poorly informed and greatly misled.
German demographic will lead into a shortage in lense production for chip manufacturing? Really? This seems way exaggerated. It's just one company (as far as I know) that is able to produce these lenses. I am very sure this company will always find labor to do so. And it will be cheaper than the US, as the labor is way cheaper in Germany compared to similar educated people than in the US.
Peter,your gentleman interviewer can not see his head for the nose,craftsmen and women have not been remunerated enough, especially since the moneyed men loave(killed of Unions) the blue collar,in general.from NZ
11:20 It seems to me the older you get. Your imagination goes away. There is software programs being made for public use in not just government. That are starting to track and label sources of misinformation and their sources.
