PETER, i AM 87 and a retired EE and a student of socioeconomics, you have taught me more in the last 2 months Than I have ever been exposed to. I HAVE lived in Japan and Taiwan. I have lived thru Roosevelt and many presidents. I am an ex-marine and was in the Korean war. I have seen both the best of America and the worst, I have watched a lot of your lectures. thank you Chuck Blackstock
You are spot on Chuck Blackstock. I'm a retired physician and a student of public health and tropical medicine. I am also a veteran, military medical officer. I witnessed first hand the devastating effects of the war in Bosnia-Herzegovina both as result of combat, ethnic cleansing, the destruction of infrastructure and health systems. In my last assignment I was involved in the effort to control and provide medical support for the ebola epidemic in Africa. Not only was the disease devastating but the political unrest both in Africa and the public reaction Europe and the world was worse. My experiences really helped to put Zeihan's observations and predictions into perspective. I would not want people to witness some of the things I have. But real world experience tends to temper some of the ideas and assertionns one might be tempted to accept from a university sociology professor or a Starbucks activist.
Chuck, I appreciate your perspective and agree with your judgement on the stunning quality of Peter's presentation. I'm 78 years old, 30 years in the US Navy, and a student of history. The comprehensive nature of this material and it's ramifications are staggering.
Be aware of the increased resort to heuristic with age. A remedy is study of mathematics of complex dynamic systems, and game theory, two disciplines not well-developed until 30 years ago. Unaddressed US sociopolitical instability is a result of much of the population clinging to old heuristics shown to be in error. Yet the erroneous falsely crystallized distillations - holding onto crude biases, failing to recognize one's own cognitive errors, instead essentially sloganizing, overgeneralizing, stereotyping, seeking only confirmatory information, are [problems. Remain critical of ALL individuals The young are teachable because of their critical perceptions. The elder who seek confirmation above recognition of own error, are less so. I have seen so many holes in Zeihan in just two videos, that I suggest you seek to understand complexity, and, as scientists are taught, to recognize that all constructs are contingent, and complex systems reduced to simplistic heuristics, suffer from observer biases leading to so many cognitive fallacies that it will require years to understand the copious most common, and your own, which can severely limit your perceptions. CERTAINLY, USE Zeihan, while seeking both more fundamental underpinnings of behavior AND other also biased, constructs differing from his. The Social/economic two-axis graph is popular in political "science" the self-inventory through which to place your own bias may be available online. Because it is simple, bivariate, you can begin with that. Use it ONLY on yourself as high familiarity is the only way you can evaluate another relatively accurately. Human mobs are ephemeral, and so evaluating groups for danger of consistency is subject to so many cognitive errors and biases, mere listing would be longer than my comment.
@@briseboy Complex dynamic systems? Mostly misunderstood. (Former Naval Nuke DLGN-25 - I know a little thermodynamics) According to Greenhouse Gas Theory, water vapor is a greenhouse gas just as potent as CO2. People worry about CO2 levels of 0.04% and yet water vapor averages 2.0%. 50 times as much.
For all is what’s wrong with RU-vid, I’ve been critical of it. Having access to information like this makes it still an invaluable platform. Being exposed to deep, intellectual thought provoking presentations.
Does not make presentations and information that you may not agree with, not 'deep, intellectual thought provoking'. Bias and inherent beliefs play a big role too.
I used it for Covid info/data leading me to have an 'Alt-Middle' approach and its great for Geology (surprisingly fast moving atm!!) which I escaped to when the Covid narrative became to stupid for words at the start of 2021
I just realized that if this guy is giving a presentation on the end of the global order and what we’ll face afterward *in a military base* then there’s people with a lot of power that believe it.
You are correct, the normies always catch on to late. It’s generally the fringe and the elites that are the only ones with any clue as to what’s really going on.
Or put another way, if there is any community in the world that is capable of calling BS on any of these subjects it's the intelligence community. This is a large part of what they do on a daily basis (albeit on a more micro level in most cases).
yet their tech level is..I mean you have a paid speaker and you use sh654ty screens from the 90s and some of the worst microphones I've ever heard..a 50 dollar phone can record better than
This is a presentation that I want to see many times. Impossible to catch it all in one go. Absolutely enlightening. Brilliant! Thank you so much for posting.
Huh. I thought I was the only one. I found him on an episode of Breaking Points (check it out on YT!) and have spent the last TWO FREAKIN' DAYS watching his vids. He's as paradigm changing for me that Mark Blythe was a few years ago.
I took a Demographics class as part of my Master’s in Public Health in 2008. I participated in a group project which analyzed the demographics of Russia. He is spot on. Even then, the demographics for the male population were horrible. On closer evaluation, we also discovered that the male population is actually worse off because of alcoholism and iv drug use. This has resulted in a high prevalence of HIV in this population. What is not obvious, if you just look at the numbers, is that it is the working male population (i.e., laborers, administrators, professional workers, soldiers, etc.) most affected by these factors. So the impact of population decline is worse than it looks at first glance. I agree with some in this thread that he tends to present things in a very macroscopic view based on global dynamics. But there are also factors unique to each population that can have an impact on the demographics as compared to others with similar population profiles.
We have a term for that demographical irrationality caused by one active factor being deliberately ignored. It is called as the "INTER-GENERATIONAL CHRONOLOGICAL FACTOR" that has a time duration period ranging from 20 years to 33 years. And comparing the chronological demographics of the age group ranging from age 1 to age 35 and comparing them to the age 36 to age 65, and comparing them to the age 65 to age 115 (advancing medical science and medical engineering creates this trends).
Only Harry Dent came close to our analytical processes concerning demographics that we developed during the Cold War. It is bad economics that led to population contraction and collapse while at the same time population contraction and collapse leads to bad economics. Creating a kind of vicious circle of demographics and economics.
Thinking the Bolsheviks murdered an admitted 20 Million (Solzhenitsyn states more like 35-50 million).; WWII killed another 22 million. Can be rough rebuilding a nation's population after an assaults like that, esp with feminism on steroids in Russia, to the point where most guys don't want anything to do with marriage or family. And in Chynah - most younger guys have trouble finding mates - the direct result of 30 years of one-child-only and a preference for male children. Women get to be extraordinarily picky. Lot of Alcoholism and drug abuse in that younger male crowd, officially unrecognized, of course. Was very surprised to read recently that Chynah has something like 5 Million foreign employees. Fact is that neither the Shang Hai Stock Index nor the Hang Sang (Hong Kong) have ever surpassed their pre-housing crisis highs.
Hate to disappoint you. I would say this white guy is full of Sheeeeiit and he doesn’t know what is he talking about . On my book he is an idiot hahahahaha lol 😂😂😂😂👍👍👍👍🇨🇳🇨🇳🇨🇳🇨🇳🇨🇳🇨🇳🇨🇳🇨🇳🇨🇳🇨🇳🇨🇳🇨🇳🇨🇳🇨🇳🇨🇳🇨🇳🇨🇳🇻🇳🇻🇳🇻🇳🇻🇳🇻🇳🇻🇳🇻🇳🇻🇳!!!!
What a guy, I'm 10 minutes in and excited to see I've got almost an hour left. Its especially rare to find good information that is ALSO presented in a fluid, comprehensive, and confident manner that keeps your attention. I'm tickled when I find dense but boring information, or entertaining but sparse information. This is pure gold. This is apex stuff. I really wonder where government goes wrong when they have real, unrestrained access to this kind of expertise. Ignorance and incompetence cant be an excuse.
Nice Job. I’ve never seen an analysis that incorporated such a wide and interactive study of so many different geographical, cultural, historical, resource inputs.
Thank you Peter for laying out facts about China as they really are. Hopefully it will clear the minds of all those China admirers.. and America's haters.. no country is perfect, but we send our sons & daughters to America, not to China or Russia for their best education... that tells a lot 🙂
This presentation started out with graphics and charts which can cause your eyes to glaze over BUT I'm so happy I stayed with because it became very informative and interesting ! This man ,Peter Zeihan, has some very good facts that are hard to argue and his laid back way of explaining with the use of common sense just pulls you in !!!! As I said ,it's hard to argue with him when he focuses on cold hard FACTS !!!! This demonstration and lecture should be listened to by all nations of the world ! His use of facts and projected overview are extremely important for all counties of the world ! I will watch this over many times to able to absorb the complete consequence of all these concrete facts ! It behooves all of us to be knowledgeable and acutely aware of the world's future and progress by the understanding of these facts ! Thank you Zeihan for all of your research !
Interesting perspectives. Worth listening to twice (maybe more for me - my brain resists change)... 51:18 the vision for the future, the solution that you are looking for, the solution that you don't have 52:42, is the Philosophy of Broader Survival.
This is the most jaw-dropping conference I’ve heard in years if not decades. I did not realize he was the author of “The accidental superpower”. I was shocked by that book. I’m going to buy the new one. I love people who study hard and present unique perspectives as a result. This is an extreme example of it.
Keep your jaw drop for the aha moment when you realize that Israel has been selling US tech to China for more than 20 years while feasting on the weakening USA carcass, all the while its dual citizens of influence send your sons and daughters to their death and injury in the Mid East. China will use Russia as its bitch for raw materials and food and build the railways to bring its shipping containers to Europe. Trump and Kushner and Biden are all shoe shine boys for israel.
@@mangonut i love reading his one star book reviews on Amazon. The Academia Wonks cant get past "he only has a masters degree" or "he isn't even peer reviewed." One reviewer even said Amazon might as well give away a free MAGA hat with every book purchase. lol They're jealous I guess.
@@glbehnken are you serious? Jeez. I’ll have to go read. I’m FAR from the mags crowd, but like hearing good logical arguments that Changes my perspective of how the world works. Peter does that.
You are quite possibly my hero of the new year! I can't imagine the hell you must catch on a daily basis but I couldn't agree more on your presentation. Well done Sir. Bravo!
I like how he predicted so many things almost a decade ago and all the sudden he gets hired by US govt. Zeihan formerly worked at the state dept and then at private intelligence firm Stratfor, before going independent.
Peter is NOT independent!!! He still spruiks US intelligence propaganda. For example, there is no such thing as "free trade". The US et al build and protect their own trade route while "discouraging" rival nations.
Perhaps. But remember, Naisbitt forecast the Rise of China and the Advent of High Tech / High Touch in the past two decades ... and look how that turned out. 🙄
As I keep repeating to my closest friends, getting old certainly sucks but I'm very glad I'm not any younger than I am. The die-off of humans will be ugly beyond all comprehension.
@@TheDavidlloydjones Well said David. To name just one item the profiles he paints of current generations have always existed and in the minority. He continuously dramatises by "colouring" the facts for effect. People do buy it unfortunately. Cheers
This man speaks with the confidence of somebody who can only be wrong. This stuff is complicated, and should be heavily disclaimed. I'm suspicious of anyone who doesn't use the word "might" or "possible" or "likely" when talking about the future. He's speaking like a prophet.
Agreed. I would add that the element of certainty that underlies his premises can be seductive, particularly to those who are not comfortable with nuanced analyses. Not saying he's wrong, or, that he doesn't make a lot of valid points. But surprise and unpredictability seem to be missing from his thinking, two components one should never overlook.
I live in China. He has no idea about what's really going on. They have their long term goals(5 year 25 year plans) stability and smart people. downplaying china is perilous for the US strategy. His counter and big picture viewpoints are interesting and thought provoking but he has china absolutely wrong
@@mustbtrouble, but men can father children to a much more advanced age. They don't become suddenly sterile or risk prone as far as making babies until they are much older.
Disclaimer: I worked with Peter "way back when" at Stratfor, when I was a lowly intern and he was VP of Energy Studies (or something like that). While largely showing clear thinking, I do have some issues with this presentation. 1) Contrary to what was presented here, China does have naval bases abroad. One in Djibouti, another incoming one in Pakistan, and an effective one (through commercial interests) in Sri Lanka, all of which are on the energy trade route through Malacca Straits. It also has a number of refined, crude, and natural gas pipelines to Russia, as well as tertiary land based routes (rail and road). Energy security during potential conflict is something the Chinese have considered, I promise. 1a) Related, you can see on the map he gives that there are huge shale oil reserves in China, also near distribution and population centers. Why would the presence of such reserves shelter the US against oil market crises but not China? Note that the largest oil shale plant in the world is Chinese, so they're obviously interested in using these resources. 2) Projecting out current demographic trends for generations is silly, especially in the very same conversation describing how demographic trends have changed over time. 'We're going to witness the end of the Han ethnicity.' By the same logic, the Japanese, Italian, Russian, Greek, etc. ethnicities (also undergoing demographic collapse) will also end. Why isn't that discussed? 2a) Related. Mao did not institute the One Child Policy. Mao actually encouraged fertility, and there were programs like 'Mother Heroine' to promote it. Deng Xiaoping enacted the policy in 1980 (Mao died in '76, and was effectively neutered well before then). It was phased out beginning in 2015, ending in 2021. 3) There are unwarranted generalizations about Chinese resources. e.g. 'China has poor agricultural lands.' That's not representative, and not any more correct than saying the US has 'poor agricultural lands' because of its own western deserts and mountains. Yes, vast tracts are basically non-arable. But lots more are not only productive, but productive enough to have sustained populations in the hundreds of millions using essentially medieval technology. There were 430 million people in China in 1850. That's well more than in the United States, *now*. 4) Finally, the assumption that the American summer will go on forever, and the only reason why the Bretton Woods system might fail is because Americans get sick of upholding it. That is a BIG assumption. I listened to a US Air Force colonel give a doom-and-gloom presentation about Chinese ascension in June, and just saw this opposite 'China is doomed' perspective in August. The differences are seriously stark, like both sides just ignored contrary information.
To bad that you are concentrated on China when Mexico should be your larger concern... point 4 is real and Bretton Woods is forgotten I doubt that Trump knows anything about it. The right hates globalism as does Trump and the left is to fragmented to focus on it and would not find much support for globalism if they did.
Very convincing presentation. Perhaps too convincing. I don't think anybody has the future this well charted. Yes demographics are destiny. But a lot can happen along the way. The urgent need I see is for people with integrity to be in power among all the nations, particularly the nuclear weapons holding nations. We got lucky, and were blessed with some honorable Russian people / soldiers / politicians - back in 1990 when the Soviety Union dissolved. Not a single nuclear weapon was detonated. The struggle for power and survival among nations as resource shortages and inevitable change occurs in the years ahead, may not work out so favorably for the world. This is especially true if the various nations political processes, corrupted by perpetually inflating fiat money, continue to select for sociopathic leaders.
As someone who has fallen him for a few years now, he makes plenty of bad predictions, but on overall trends, he lays out a map and we can follow it from there. No one does it better.
@@karantov1 In his book published in November 2014 is said Russia would have to move and take Ukraine by 2022. While at the same in Norway they are putting official representatives of the Norwegian military saying that "Nobody could have predicted the invasion".
Not true. Overwhelmingly incorrect. It is a medieval myth that the old are supported by the young. The fact is that, post industrialism, marginal propensity to invest increases monotonically with the age of cohorts. The ninety year-olds are still contributing to the eighty-year-olds, and so on down. Social Security supports a minor fraction of the old -- the bottom thirty or forty percent. They are not economically significant; they are the poor 10% of income of a mere quarter of everybody.
Mr. Zeihan's thesis is interesting and valuable--except, his supposition that DoD (National Security) is the "only" body that can provide discourse and ideas, that are actionable in the macro. That doesn't necessarily bode well for the idea he has earlier posited, that we are a republican form of government to order our democratic motivations. If he could temper his enthusiasm for his employer, to "one of the most capable...at this time" maybe I could feel more sanguine about swallowing his presentation whole. But words matter--this was a select audience, not necessarily the mainstream of DoD which has tilted towards racial nationalism outside it's own ivory tower.
Thank God the mainstream of DoD is tilting towards racial nationalism! 40% of all enlisted are minorities! SOMEBODY has to stick up for the majority in this country.
He does these talks to all types of different government and private sector entities. Go back and listen to some of his earlier stuff and see if he checks out.
Fantastic presentation I learned a lot from it. The last question that was asked I would like to dovetail on to that: Russia's goal is clear and that is to have those nine corridors controlled again. But with the sanctions and the Ukrainian military effectiveness, the Russians are likely to fight to a stalemate. I wanted to ask if you thought a coalition with China is possible by using energy for their economy along with wheat, to keep the Russian economy alive and keep on fighting?
Yeah, I thought of that too, but the Societs and Mao did not get along well either, now they are even further apart as well unless the silk road concept turns into a program to exploit Siberia then turn to Europe and the East pacific?
Conventional wisdom at that time. He did predict a never ending war there and they couldn't pacify it. And he said they have a limited resource of conscription age men. Also, I think trying to take Poland or the Baltics is off the table now based on NATO's response and the woeful performance of the Russian military, terrible logistics, bad morale, etc. They are resorting to longer range shelling of civilian areas with artillery and avoiding direct confrontation because of loses of men and material to Western weapons (Javelins, NLAWs, Stinger, drones) in the hands of the motivated Ukrainians. Putin is a mob boss and pragmatic. He'll make a deal and declare victory before loosing his whole army, sooner rather then latter. He'll try and grab the east for natural resources first.
Very interesting presentation and I think a correct fusion of the underlying forces at work. All the more interesting in that this was given about a week before the Russians kicked off their invasion of Russia. Where at this point in the third week, it appears Russia is firing its bolt. AND showing their military is weak. This will change all sorts of calculus going forward about resource warfare in Asia. China already eyes Siberian resources. When Russia is finished in Ukraine - in several meanings of 'finished' - China will be sorely tempted by those Siberian resources.
Xi, needs to take Taiwan to solidify his gains and get chairman for life at the next CCP party Congress in the fall. War by the end of the year. Last desperate gambles to save themselves and their nations by waning powers
A really nice piece. Yes, managing what happens in large parts of the world where centralized power fails will be a huge challenge. We're going to have to make up our minds what to do about warlords and other non-democratic players locally, as well as players who look to expand their national power at the expense of the neighbor. I'm looking at you, Poland and Turkey.
Poland will either be the first NATO country Putin nukes, or Germany. Olaf Sholz f'd up bigtime when he announced he had sent stingers but no troops, worth 2% of Germany's gdp, to the Ukraine which he characterized as the equal of the country's commitment to their entire annual military budget. No wonder. The US supports 200 military installations in Germany alone. The US contributes 700 billion annually and our military bitches about it not being enough. When will our politicians wake up? Trump was right. NATO is a joke. Turkey sees itself as neutral and the guardian of the Bosporus Strait splitting the country down the middle, with the left being the euro side and the right being the stan side; it's where the whole world comes together. It's kind of refreshing to hear.
@@andrewzanas9387 Don't take the Pentagon's griping too seriously. It's never enough. I doubt Putin will go nuclear on NATO. He's worked too hard to build Russia back up to throw it all away in an afternoon. MAD still functions. The unknown is how we'll react if he uses a nuke in Ukraine. Turkey definitely is playing their hands shrewdly.
@@saladinoa6477 You have a leader that is outwardly stating that he will make war and territorial gains against his neighbors. Im telling you now. When that war comes, THE UNITED STATES will NOT ALLOW a Turkish Empire. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.
He doesn't really go into that. The Canadian topography and resources are similar to the US but only a southern band along the US northern border. He doesn't bring in climate change which is getting hard to ignore. Mexico will not improve if climate change takes hold. This is also the case for much of of the southern US. I'm thinking this is very important and needs to be taken into account. He assumes the population and demographics change but the planet is stagnant.
True. Still, the points stay relevant. Just look at WHEN Harley Davidson problems in the last decade started. What a "coincidence" its customer-base is slowly but steadily NOT buying new bikes anymore (while less young customers fill the gap).
Great presentation Peter, many thanks! Disappointing questions from the audience ? - Why wouldn't China go for Myanmar, Lao, Cambodia to create port access and land links to bypass the chain of islands that limits their power?
Those are classic regional enemies to China, and would likely destabilize China. In other words, China probably cannot win against those countries for many reasons.
They already are trying, with the China-Pakistan corridor. The issue is that this option still sucks. The Chinese have to build roads and railways through difficult to cross the Himalayas/Yunnan/Hindu Kush, which are themselves easily disrupted (as well as more expensive to maintain.) Also, capacity is more limited.
Some of this is extremely interesting. The questions at the end are excellent. But I would take his confident predictions with a huge grain of salt: just look at this map of global stability. There are very few rising stars, and they include....(really!) Argentina, Turkey and Angola! I think the guy is smart but would benefit from a bit of humility.
Turkey can and should be a rising star. It has a big political problem named Erdogan, but Erdogan can learn or Turkey can possibly find a different leader and still profit.
He’s saying that, if the global order collapses and everyone is on their own, who grows in power and who doesn’t. This is relative to how they are right now.
Very important topic, our children had best get moving! America has so much talent and we have studied in office and criminals running the show. That's all we have for leadership? May God help us... 🙏 . I hope of all our children will watch this... Thanks for sharing!
Before painting a rosy picture of the United States' future, Mr. Zeihan should probably review the numbers on the Ogalalla Aquifer, the Midwest water network he lauds. Parts of it are dry in Texas and Kansas: the rest is under strain as it's drained for that very Midwestern agriculture faster than it can be replenished from the (vanishing) Rocky Mountain snowpacks. Without water, being able to import fertilizer from Canada doesn't matter. Also, China has been answering its issues with water, power and the inability to expand south by damming up the Mekong River in ways that threaten to strangle Laos and Vietnam.
With water becoming scarce, we will reduce how much food we export and we will stop using ethanol as fuel. It will raise prices, but food will still be available in North America.
I did my job at least partially! I worked since I was 15 and had two kids lol! I'm teaching my sons to be social, not just allowing them to have a digital screen as a best friend. I was born in the mid 1970's so I guess I'm a Gen X'er. It's chilling that Peter's statement that half of the millenials live in their parents basements and have been raised by helicopter parents and schools that handed out participation trophies because it's accurate from my anecdotal life experience. In my family and social circles, half of the millennials are high performers and the other half are drains on society and consume while producing nothing.
In terms of the global security map, I disagree with Turkish and Canadian designations. In terms of stability, Turkey is undergoing significant economic issues as it depletes is forex supply and looks forward to being energy dependent and lacking for the next coming decades. This is key because it is a manufacturing power that needs power. On the other side, Canada is a power house provider of resources, incuding energy and high skill worker output. It produces massive amounts of foodstuffs, critical for global warming changes and expected crop failures and it holds somewhere around the top end of all fresh water.
Canada is intentionally sabotaging its energy sector and contracting China to replace it in the name of green energy. I agree with us in the yellow. We've got the skills to suffer through, but it's going to get ugly.
His global security map does raise questions. He has Japan as steady state but they have serious demographic and national debt issues. He says that the map is a conglomeration of a basket of factors. It would be interesting to see what those factors are and how each country rates for each of those factors. That should explain Canada's rating. I've been an Albertan all my life and I view our future as nothing but bright. I do however see Canada as being a country but not really a nation. The government of Canada makes choice after choice that is very antagonistic to Western Canada and there may come a day when prairie voters come to the conclusion that Canada is not worth it and a divorce is the way forward.
@@jimbroen I see it the exact opposite: Albertans won't have the courage to separate until after the damage is already done: we aren't separating for reasons of national identity, only for reasons of economic responsibility, so it won't happen until we've been so damaged, so saddled with debt and our energy sector so gutted that the only way forward is through great difficulty. I agree with his map: we'll make it, but it won't be good.
Mr. Zeihan, as I have stated in previous videos, you are well read and have a very heavy brain. Your humor is awesome. I would describe it as trite like mine! The cartels could be literally ended overnight. All that is needed is to end the war on drugs. The fact that this is seen as a non-option here in the US can be kind of a drag. If you could not tell, I am a Libertarian. I imagine that Peter Zeihan is as well. I am a social liberal and an economic conservative.
Great presentation. I would like to understand why the prospects for Brazil are worse than that of our neighbors. is it only demographics ? As far as cultivated area, fertile soil, abundance of resources, availability of water, diversification of climates Brazil seems all in all much better off. I know the geographic argument of the "serra do Mar"being an impediment to crop transportation. But I am certain that is a matter of infrastructure and not a fixed constant. I would love to have a coffee or five with Peter and understand his reasoning.
I can give you three potential reasons. 1. Global Warming, Brazil is diproportionally affected by global warming because it disrupts the viability of agriculture. Also the rising sea level will potentially threaten brazilian coastal cities, which will have to counter this with enormous infrastructure projects. The second reason is brazilians dependency on imported fertiliziers, we are right now facing a world wide fertilizer shortage, countries like Brazil will feel that, and it will hurt. The third is the lack of infastructure to refine petroleum, currently Brazil exports crude Oil, primarily to the US, who do not need it anymore, and brazil imports refined petroleum, which will be a rare commoditie in the deglobalized world.
@@timokohler6631 there are a lot of assumptions in your analysis. And I must disagree with several. First, the effects of global warming are unknown. Not rise in sea level so far. Second, while Brazil is an agricultural powerhouse, less than 20% of our GDP comes from agriculture. The largest percentage comes from services and industry (which should become the focus as demographically, our trade partners decrease in population). Still, Brazil feeds about 1.5 billion people worldwide. Third, there is a world shortage of fertilizers, yes, the US is also suffering from that same problem. But we have LARGE (and unexplored) reserves of potassium and phosphorus, we are producers of natural gas and we have as a neighbor Bolivia which is floating in natural gas. Brazil doesn't produce fertilizers because it was simply cheaper to import it from Russia, but a plant seems to be under construction. Sadly, owned by Russians. Fourth, we also have a crap ton of shale as yet unexplored. Fifth, crude refinement is insufficient at the moment, you are right. But you must also know Petrobras is stepping out of the refinery business to focus solely on pre-salt deep water crude exploration which has an elevation cost of $4 per barrel. It distributed over $100 billion in dividends this year. Refining is being sold to other privately owned companies. This is a sector that suffered enormously from corruption under the Lula government, but I see no reason to think it isn't easily resolved (there are 2 large refineries being built at absurd prices). As far as clients for crude go, there seems to be no shortage of buyers, especially now that Russia's exports will be limited. All in all, Brazil has a MUCH better climate than the US (or China or Russia), has plenty arable and fertile land, has plenty of water and rainfall, has wind and sunlight (lots of alternative energy generation), an enormous amount of metalic commodities (except, perhaps, copper). What it frankly lacks is a great government and massive investment in infrastructure + education. The demographic problem, in my view, seems to be the direct consequence of low GDP growth and low potential GDP growth for decades. This causes people to have less kids then they would like and a tremendous brain drain, as very well educated brazilians move to Canada, the US and Europe in hopes of better opportunities. The populist / communist plague that grips Brazil, Argentina, Bolivia, Venezuela etc is what keeps these countries down. With a potential Lula comeback on the horizon, many feel disheartened.
@@theodoroseidler7072 I think you pretty much hit the nail with government/stability being the problem as far as Brazil goes. Certainly, Argentina should be in the same group as Brazil any way you slice it. Zeihan likes to make some wild claims/predictions specially based on sketchy demography/geography/geopolitics knowing that no one is gonna check them 10/20/50 years from now whether they were right or not.
His book DIsunited Nations goes into great detail as Brazil is one of the countries he mentions in his book with a detailed writeup on their outlook. He mentions a LOT of problems. Coastal towns are too densely populated, yet too disconnected from each other and other towns due to the geography (few useful navigable rivers, not enough highways or rail). Northwest Brazil cant be effectively governed due to its remoteness, extreme reliance on imported chemicals to maintain its agriculture industry due to the climate and acidic soil, and the extreme wealth inequality (oligarchs and peasants) in Brazil leads to a society that doesnt promote higher education, which permanently stunts any possibility of a large, educated workforce. There's no middle class to maintain a democracy, no educated laborers, disjointed terrain that prevents large scale infrastructure to connect them that limits economies of scale. There are other issues, but it sounds like Brazil's agricultural output is just extremely vulnerable, and what isnt vulnerable is tropical produce which requires tons of low-cost, unskilled labor that will never make Brazil rich. For the record, I love listening to Zeihan, and his ideas have a lot of merit, but I also think he's presenting one potential vision/outcome, and there is no telling how things will work out. Predicting the future is difficult in the best of times. I see this stuff as more thought experiment than science.
@@KyleP133 Thanks, i just got my copy of disuntied nations so i did not know that chapter. I also agree with you, Zeihans predictions are very interesting but should not be taken for certainty. I think he often underestimates the role of governments and technology. So his predicitions should be more read as, what does Geography and Demography predict would happen, instead of what will happen. Because governments try to avoid the worst outcomes and necessity often kickstarts new technological solutions.
Speaking to a room-full of military, for the rest of the countries in a deglobalized multipolar world absent American support, "the technical term is ... fucked." 🤣 Zeihan makes John Naisbitt look like a rookie.
At 22:36, the shale oil/gas map shows a huge patch right on mainland China, and Mr. Zeihan doesn't even acknowledge that it's there. Surely this matters in a big way. If anyone can comment on this, I'd appreciate it.
They don't have the technical skills to do it. Same reason the Russian oil won't help them either. Neither the Russians or the Chinese have the tech or skills to run the Siberian and Sakhalin oil and gas fields. Most of the hard brainwork was carried out by western contractors from the big four oil service companies or one of the big major internationals. They have all left, either because they decided it or because of sanctions. Russian oil won't leave the world market because of sanctions, it will be because they won't be able to maintain output. Siberia and Sakhalin are not like the Middle East, where you basically put down a pipe and oil comes out. And shale takes a lot of tech and skill, which the Americans have mastered over the last twenty years.
in addition, if china has the demographic collapse Zeihan is suggesting, there will not be an adequate number of people to tap those resources and use them. so it doesnt matter that they are there.
What a great lecture. My vision is that, post Ukraine war, the importance of the US as a beacon for freedom and liberty around the world will increase significantly. God bless America and the men and women in uniform fighting for our freedom every day 🇺🇲
Holy crap. He is on target with a lot of things. The world is slowly going to crap. This is why you are going to see more and more supply chain disruptions. This will also include food and energy.
