Peter Zeihan - What Will Happen If China Invades Taiwan? 

Watch the full episode here - ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-wRT7P-VKM0k.html

The first casualty would be Walmart . Every store would close .

*Seriously, Peter Zeihan and Jordan B. Peterson are perfect compliments.* One is an extreme economic hyperrealist, taking all emotions out of the equation. The other turns emotions into a science, and explores the deepest reaches of humanity. Both take the extreme and complex and give them a frightening amount of sense.

A US - China sea battle would be one sided. The US has 11 aircraft carriers and 9 amphibious assault ships that can carry F-35C stealth jets. While China only has ONE really crappy aircraft carrier that is already falling apart.

There is also the fact that there are only 14 small beaches suitable for an amphibious assault that are backed by mountains with dense forest or dense urban areas. Plus there is the Taiwan Strait which is only in a short window of time making naval and amphibious assault difficult.

I’m a retired Recon Marine, so I looked at the topography of Taiwan, and the water shelf approaching their beeches , not to mention the mining that Taiwan would install around their coast, and then of course you have the USN to contend with, and more than likely, the Japanese Navy, GOOD LUCK CHINA

I like the intuition he is showing here. Makes a lot of sense. I had never thought of it from this perspective.

I enjoy this guy’s takes… still though I can’t help but wonder what X-factors, if any, China has been developing in whatever underground infrastructure they may have

This makes perfect sense.

Well, our friends that live in China have been told to prepare for food shortages. They have to keep they’re messages cryptic but they are concerned as to why they have been told to do this.

Taiwan also has 1.66 million reservist, which is ridiculous given its size. They might only have four weeks of training, but just being able to point a gun in the direction of the enemy would mean that they would have a huge force of arms packed in a small area, and sometimes just being determined to root out an invader with little arms training on your own is enough.

What is his qualification to say with certainty what the best strategy and only strategy for this and for that is ...?

I have to agree with you on this one, Peter.

1:43, did he say they'd build a few nukes ?

Looks like everyone here forgot about the one China policy recognized by the US and a majority of nations.

Taiwan has it least 600-700 anti-ship missiles and builds hundreds each year. Japan is upgrading 1,000 of it’s land-based anti ship missiles to have a range of 1,000km. The US has 2-4 submarines in the area each with 150 precision tomahawk missiles and hundreds of land-based and air-to sea missiles. And these are just some of the anti - invasion capability elements. Ukraine with far more backward and unorganised missile squadrons sank Russia’s capital ship with a single missile. There is no way China’s navy or amphibious ships survive the journey. China trying to disguise a drill as an invasion doesn’t work. For an actual invasion they would need to assemble what the allies had to assemble for D-day on a much larger scale. With satellite technology there is no way it can go unnoticed. US intelligence predicts they will have 60 days + of being confident of an invasion and 30+ of being 100% certain of an invasion. If they do a surprise bombard before their troops are assembled then they will be under fire before their troops even get onto the transport vehicles. There’s no way it works out well. But this is just the military challenges. In a war Taiwan would wipe out China's major dams and ruin the prosperity of 600m chinese people, meanwhile after the war there would be no recovery with the average age of china being 40+ and no energy imports for the economy or iron ore imports to rebuild. Sure, China would survive - but there would be no great economic rejuvenation.

He has some valid points, but went off the deep end quickly.

It's crazy that estimations are showing that the us would lose 2 aircraft carriers in this conflict. Not many people alive today have seen an aircraft carrier go down

I have heard him in other videos and he seems great but this time his predictions sound more like a Michael bay movie.

Taking on Taiwan, plus AUKUS, and, probably, Japan and France, wouldn’t be fun. Probably, sea, air, space and cyber, rather than infantry, from Taiwan’s allies. Taiwan would need to keep a watch-out for fifth columnists, loyal to the Mainland. China could be softened-up by the United States dropping MFN trade status and Australia stopping the supply of industrial quality raw materials.

Lets not forget that a lot of really rich people own factories in Taiwan.

interesting he missed the most important part , the same people that own the west , own china . all our differences are created by those people that own us . there are a lot countrys that would collapse if santions were put on china .

The high tech amphibious assault ship carries 500 men and 10 tanks per trip and China got 6-8 of those. It's not enough to carry the force needed and keep the army supplied for the occupation, you need at least 2 million soldiers and the supplies will last 1 day. If you use every civilian ship in China to do the job then it means it will get sunk by the low-tier mid-tier native produced anti-ship missiles which Taiwan has in tens of thousands. Not to mentions the anti ship harpoon missiles bought from the US. The only feasible way to make Taiwanese Government come to the table for negotiation is Naval lockdown/starvation of Taiwan which the US would simply re-supply without starting a formal war, if the US gets involved then the land invasion is pretty much impossible. That's why it's even more difficult then Ukraine, it's not like you can place the 20 thousand strong army with thousands of tanks all around the border on day one.

if China invades Taiwan, i'm not convinced the world will do anything. what consequences has China faced for lying about covid for before letting it loose on the rest of us?

What happened when US invaded Hawaii or California? Taiwan is China

I lived in Taipei in 1985. People are wonderful there. If China would have the intention to get Taiwan they would have done years ago. Chinese are very practical people, what we can get if we have Taiwan there? It’s always intention. I don’t know who is this new guru but he is wrong.

Yay! Less to worry about. 🇹🇼 🇯🇵

Hard to argue against a man with such a towering intellect. Even harder to argue against his clear-eyed common sense.

Submarines, f22s, oh my

Waiting for Nathan Rich to go ballistic on this video.

Thats my depressing take on it as well. The US is going to seriously misjudge this one .

If China were to invade Taiwan (or attempt to invade) it would at best be a Pyrrhic victory as what it might gain in such an effort would not recoup the losses. China would have to "flatten" Taiwan in preparation for invasion which would destroy Taiwan's computer chip manufacturing...driving the price sky high and the quality deep into the ground. China would also suffer serious economic sanctions and diplomatic repercussions. Then there's the causalities and loss of material. The combination of the downsides makes any attempt not worth the gains...pride in regaining Taiwan won't feed the populace.

did he say Taiwan will build a nuke? Can they? Will to build so quickly?

While the crossing the sea part being a huge obstacle that Russia never had to deal with obviously makes a lot of sense I'm not so sure about the whole Taiwan 'building a few nukes' thing.

I think maybe we can be connected to discuss sometime if u feel comfortable with, at least u get the access of a genuine Chinese perspective, not any third party personal illustrations

Man I didn't even think about that trying to making that Crossing all that water would be a huge Chum Bucket Beyond hell on Earth

Well for one thing, Taiwan will get a lot more crowded

Even in the "best case scenario" for China, where the US and Japan do not militarily get involved before the invasion succeeds, this doesn't work well for China. Taiwan produces about 90% of the high-end computer chips that both China and the rest of the world need and use to keep their economies going, and you can bet these facilities will be destroyed once it was clear China would succeed in invading, which would almost immediately push the world into a recession. Japan, the USA and South Korea can make these chips, although not in the quantities needed (at least at first), but China cannot - they have spent a lot of money and effort trying to make these and failed. It would be painful to all involved, but you can bet that sanctions similar to what were placed on the Russian government would also be placed on the CCP, and if the US put in a total blockade of anything going in or out of China by sea (which I would expect), this would create the fuel and food shortages very quickly that the video mentioned. I would expect Chinese casualties to be in the hundreds of thousands, most of them drowning victims after their transport ships were sunk by the Taiwanese. This is not going to go over well with the families on the mainland who lost boys, in many cases their only child. As factories close for lack of parts and power rationing goes into effect due to fuel shortages, this will be problem for the CCP that could end up with them being replaced.

How bout I just give you a thumbs up

This may not have aged that well. Note that China recently brokered a normalization of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. It's interesting that they made friends with two countries that just happen to have massive petroleum reserves. They will have a source of oil that will help them survive sanctions from the U.S. and other allies.

No no, this guy is so innocent.

Two points were utter nonsense. One is the belief energy imports would be restricted and would cripple China. Russia would continue to provide China as much gas and oil as needed without interruption. Second is the belief that if China were to build up to an invasion Taiwan would recognize this and “just build a couple of nukes.” You don’t just decide to “build nukes” and have them within 2-3 months. Taiwan’s best defense is the military stockpile provided by the US, establishment of an Asian NATO and the threat of unified sanctions by the worlds biggest economies.

If u say INVADING? Which indicates your recognition of Taiwan as an independent country, which contradicts your own government stance.

The unthinkable ? And what we thought unsinkable,sinking faster than the TITANIC???🇨🇦😱

They are not going to do it!

Won't be able to pull it off so easily 👽

This guy takes assumptions, assumes they are all 100% correct, goes down a slippery slope to reach a shocking conclusion. He speaks with such condescending authority

Day one and oil is cut off from the Persian Gulf No Oil No War

Listening to this guy makes me sleep better every night. Thought Biden would sell my grandkids future to the Chinese. Now I'm not so sure!

You are so smart❤️ I adore you Kissy kissy

Clearly this guy didn't know what happened between 1946 to 1949.

I can't imagine the Chinese even trying. The USN has the distant maritime intervention strategy to strangle them at Malacca and Hormuz, and 3rd, 7th, and 5th fleets would be turkey-shooting Chinese container ships from minute 1, so even if the blockade was lifted... They have no shipping. Thats the most hands-off, casualty averse path the US could take and it still puts the CCP upside down into a trash can. For the fishing boat blitz strategy... The second that Taiwan gets verified I&W of a Chinese amphibious assault, forget missiles and everything else, you are going to be able to walk from Taiwan to China stepping from sea mine to sea mine without getting your feet wet. Look how many quicksink mines a B-2, B-1, and B-52 can deploy in a single sortie. It's bonkers. And the straight is only like 80 feet deep so it's the perfect bathymetry for mines. You can sweep, sure. But they don't have that many sweepers, the mines are resistant to it, and it slows the overall pace of the assault from 30 knots to less than 3. While getting pounded by every black box horror DARPA has been stashing in the closet for a rainy day.

What is his track record when it comes to his past predictions?

Some of Pete's comments I don't buy. He says if Taiwan was invaded China loses energy imports. Yet, what if Russia imports it's energy to China.

The fact that a topic like this is an intellectual discussion really demonstrates what a shitty world we have created for ourselves.

Wow!

Look, it’s the guy that doesn’t think Canada is a country.

I’m going to start disinfecting my driveway, damn! I didn’t know that helped!

Nothing will happen as far as the U.S. is concerned.

Everything this guy predicts turn out wrong. I watched him on his predictions about the War in Ukraine he made ten months ago. Not one of them turned out as he predicted. He is very convinced in the USA and western foreign policies. I don’t think that what is happening now in the world under USA bullying is proving to be succesfull and beïng liked by people all over the world.

What do you think about Australie

Gotta disinfect those runways!

well thats great i was getting worried about there domonace not so much after watching this video

I hope China doesn’t have a Japanese Admiral like Yamamoto. Who concluded early that war with U.S. was not winnable. But Japan could raise havoc for 6 months then must sue for peace.

China's been talking about this since the 70's, they'll keep talking.

2:36 except for that coup attempt 🙄

A bit of a swim

U r saying a sovereign country INVADING its own province?????

What should happen is ww should leave them to it. It isn’t our fight at all. Local countries need to step up to respect their local security.

Having lived in China for 8 years (and just got back a few months ago), it must be pointed out that Taiwan consists of more than just the main island. There are also strings of smaller islands, with some less than 3 miles from the mainland city of Xiamen, and these could be taken rather quickly if Xi truly wanted to (and yes, he wants to, and yes, he's prepared to lose as many people as need be). And that's what I feel is far more likely to happen... sort of a Crimea first, Ukraine second approach... China would take the Kinmen Islands first and then make a play for greater Taiwan second- with the duration between the two based upon how easy the first was. Most Chinese men that I've met WANT China to take Taiwan- and by any means necessary too. They also felt the same about Hong Kong... and this from people I thought were fairly westernized, educated, global-minded people... When it comes to the subject of Hong Kong, Macao, or Taiwan, they became ultra-nationalists. The real question to ask is... would the world community, the EU, the US and Canada, none of which formally recognize Taiwan and have no embassies there, go to all-out war, including nuking mainland China and imposing throttling embargoes? I say, not a chance. China can get its energy from Russia, has a populace used to deprivation, and war solves the CCP's biggest issue, which is a constant 20%+ unemployment. Xi said Taiwan MUST be a part of China by 2049, which is twenty-six years from now.... I would believe him

The U.S. has enough submarines to take out all Chinese warships in the event of a n invasion of Taiwan.

How many years has Tiawan been a money laundering operation for US politicians?

Well west got involved with Ukraine because invasion lasted for so long. Look when Russia took over Crimea in 2014 or when it took over two regions in Georgia in 2008. nobody did anything because it was too quick to react. Same goes with Taiwan, the involvement of the west really depends on how long will the invasion last.

Let me give you the short answer. Go back in time with me just a moment and rephrase the question. What will we do if Russia invades Ukraine?

Questions are: Does world equate China versus Taiwan the same as Russia versus Ukraine? Would world boycott China and for how long? Would Taiwan fight well? Would chip fabs survive? Would China allow Taiwanese citizens to leave? Would USA attempt a naval blockade or mine the straits? Would US President get the approval of Congress? PS - too many unknowns. Perhaps Tom Clancy could parse things out!

"Chiner"

The CCP would fall as unemployment skyrockets due to the West’s trade boycott.

What are you saying? China imports from Russia, Brazil and others

Doesn’t China and Russia both have everything each other needs though? China has all the industrialization and Russia has all the agriculture/natural resources. They could strictly trade with each other and cut themselves off from the rest of the world

This is only true if you trust mainstream information... I have a bridge for sale.

Yeah that's what I do. I mean if someone is looking like they want some trouble I just build a few nukes.

The Chinese would have to ferry their troops over a sea patrolled by nuclear attack submarines and probably stand-off ground mines just waiting to be activated. The initial loss would be seismic. Then the economic hit would bring them to their knees. If after watching the Russian /Ukraine war they still went ahead it would be crazy; but YES they might still try.All for one leader !!

but taiwan is lot lot smaller then ukraine

Nope. Don’t like that.

Unlike Ukraine.. Taiwan has a great air force.for one and over 300 Abrams tanks. Plus himars and other long range weapon's. And increased military spending for the next ten Years. On top of the last 20 years building and army that can fully defend it self. All thanks to the USA 💪.

I really like Peters perspective, Ive read his books and listened to a lot of his interviews. But I think he looks at this issue as if the rest if the world doesn’t need china. If China does invade and there is blow back, they probably have definitely factored this and have enough control over their people to work through boycotting and sanctions. They also have control over many industries outside of China, they can still participate and influence the world economy while being economically attacked. Peter makes China sound like they are not informed, don’t have a plan and are dependent on foreign policies, from what Ive learned about Chinas world wide influence, I unfortunately think they can pull this off and get away with it.

Stop standing sideways who are you trying to impress

We have yet to discover in both the Russian and Chinese cases just how willing each are to get their own forces destroyed in order to achieve strategic objectives. In the Russian case, they lack abundant personnel resources but in China's case, they have huge numbers that they can sacrifice in order to destroy an enemy of more technical capability but far fewer numbers and very little appetite for absorbing high casualties (the US). So, throwing more than enough manpower into the fight though being far less capable could still mean that China could prevail in a Taiwan conflict but it already looks like Russia has lost even if the Ukraine war drags on ad infinitum.

I have no problem with his analysis, but I think he is underestimating how badly China wants Taiwan and how much they would be willing to loose to capture it. What the Chinese lack in technology and ability to defend itself from American Navy and Air Force power it can make up for in shear man power!!! What if China decides that loosing 4 million men, a small fraction of their total population, is an acceptable outcome in order to conquer Taiwan???

I think China would become much closer with Russia for energy and food needs if this happens.. A lot of those waterway choke points could become less important if that happens.

They won't make it across the straight.

It would be a missile massive bombardment... After that...who knows?

Taiwan has the nuclear infrastructure to build nukes? 😳 didn’t know that

lol Taiwan does not have nuclear weapons though?

Peter also left out the fact that Japan will not allow the take over of Taiwan either and would certainly get involved in a major way having recently stated this in 2021. Japanese absolutely hate the Chinese for how they were treated in past wars. I hope Peter is correct and China understands this is not a good idea and it will end VERY badly for everyone.

Peter really lives in his own head.

If someone is this sure about their opinion, theyve probably not right

End of US as well !

What if Russia helps China

Opps ! Peter “ the China expert” is on again spreading great anti China ideas with supreme wisdom. He is still way behind Gordon Chang, too smart to see what US is doing to herself! 😂😂😂😂