Real estate can be quite a rollercoaster, the stress and uncertainty are getting to me. I think I'll cut rents to attract potential buyers and exit the market, but i'm at crossroads if to allocate my entire $700k liquidity value to my stock portfolio or just stay 100% cash?
in my opinion, some financial situations can be handled on your own if you research enough, while others are best navigated in consultation with a financial advisor
Right, I and a few neighbors in Bel-Air area work with an advisor who prefers we DCA across other prospective sectors instead of a lump sum purchase. Following this, my portfolio has yielded over 120% since early last year to date. IMO, nothing beats expertise.
@@Charlesman_T I've worked in real estate for 25 years and have neglected a major stock portfolio. This served me well when I was flipping and renting houses, however I need a different plan now.. Mind if I look up the professional guiding you please?
curiously inputted Karen Lynne Chess on the web, spotted her consulting page and was able to schedule a call session, no sweat. Ive seen commentaries about advisors but not one looks this phenomenal
Thank you for sharing. Financial education is crucial today to show incredible resilience and discipline in the volatile market, masterfully balancing strategy and insight for success. This dedication to continuous learning is inspiring...managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.1BTC to a decent 15B TC in the space of a few weeks... I'm especially grateful to Linda Wilburn, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape..
The key to financial stability is having the right investment suggestions for a diverse portfolio. Many investment failures and losses happen when you invest without proper guidance.
Guys, I have been a lender for big banks for the past 34 years. I resigned about 18 months ago. I'm listening to what you're saying, but I don't think its accurate. Since 2009, no credit officer has listened to what I say. They just turn my requests down. So, my take is the banks are okay.
@@usausausausa FR, SVB and Signature were guilty of a mismatch of duration of their loan and security holdings. They had nominal credit issues. As an example, SVB provided a 1% home mortgage to a tech billionaire. There was no issue with him repaying the loan, but a 1% coupon loan in a world of 7% mortgage rates is worth about 78 cents on the dollar.
@tmclean9, you're absolutely correct. 35 year CRE lender here still in the business. Neither of these guys have a clue what they are talking about. Banks are fine. Now on office loans, there is some weakness in some markets but it's not a systemic issue. Nearly everything they said was wrong makes me think they are grifting.
@@JamesAnderson-ez2df You may be correct and some small regional banks may have some issues. However these are not systematically significant. Washington Federal just sold $3 billion in CRE secured loans to PIMCO at par. I'm pretty sure PIMCO scrubbed these loans and thought they got a fair deal.
It's not just office buildings 740% supply listed on the market, add to the DSCR this basically "liar loans", add the interest rate jump from my 4.1% that just readjusted to 7.1%. it a combo knockout
I'm in Michigan, and the housing market here over the past 7-8 years has been unprecedented. Houses that were purchased for $130K in 2015 are now going for $590K. These are tiny, poorly constructed 950-square-foot homes in quiet, mediocre neighborhoods. Meanwhile, nicer, average-sized homes in better neighborhoods that were over $300K a decade ago are now selling for $750K+. It's wild.
A recession as bad it can be, provides good buying opportunities in the markets if you’re careful and it can also create volatility giving great short time buy and sell opportunities too. This is not financial advise but get buying, cash isn’t king at all in this time!
I've been in touch with a financial advisor ever since I started my business. Knowing today's culture The challenge is knowing when to purchase or sell when investing in trending stocks, which is pretty simple. On my portfolio, which has grown over $900k in a little over a year, my adviser chooses entry and exit orders.
bravo! I appreciate the implementation of ideas and strategies that result to unmeasurable progress, thus the search for a reputable advisor, mind sharing info of this person guiding you please?
The decision on when to pick an Adviser is a very personal one. I take guidance from Vivian Jean Wilhelm to meet my growth goals and avoid mistakes, she's well-qualified and her page can be easily found on the net.
Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an e-mail shortly.
The seller lies, the buyer lies, the bank closes its eyes and everyone gets paid bigly. When it goes wrong all parties can point to the others as the bad guy and construct plausible deniability. The pernicious nature of this system of broken incentives cannot be overstated. It's not just commercial real estate folks. The auto finance business from whence I came is rampant with these practices.
I've been in commercial CRE for 35 years as a commercial banker. I've financed billions of projects over my career. This is all complete bullshit. My bank is not in trouble and neither are my competitors. In fact, we haven't even had an uptick in non-performing or at risk credit grades. Commercial loan officers at banks are NOT commissioned based either. Neither of you guys know much of anything about my industry.
Halt markets open low. Real estate is a rocket in the air about to turn. The only solution to the problem is major deflation. Labor and prices not adding due ti stuck pipes of entitlements that were backed by 3 years of Covid. You will have the most aggressive deflation in all.
Thank you. I was going to comment the same thing. Glad someone else has some commen sense. These guys are just pumping out doom content and don't care what they're saying or who they're hurting. The lending is solid. I know this because i went through it and lenders are NOT playing around.
I have been involved in commercial real estate for over 40 years- Shopping centers, industrial, retail, etc. Never has a bank not verified income. I believe you were into flipping homes. Totally different. Two words: mortgage fraud. Both of you are coming at this from a residental( albeit commercial) perspective. DSCR always applied.
Been in residential rental property for almost 50 years. Never verify income, because it is always inflated. Know what income should be based on market. Do verify known expenses, such as property tax and utilities.
I agree. 30 plus years in commercial real estate in Australia and every deal has been based on verifiable income not on projections. Residential seems to be different.
35 year year broker and investor here. I have never seen a bank lend on a commercial project without verifying income and expense information on a property, plus obtain a valid appraisal, plus thoroughly vet the borrower. For the past 3 years commercial lenders in my area ( Central Valley of CA) have tightened up their requirements even more. We haven’t seen very many commercial foreclosures since we got past the lending fiasco of 2007 -2009 or so.
With high housing prices the property tax is based on this price, and the property tax amount increases. If there is a major recession, some of the people laid off will have to sell their home because of the cost of taxes, insurance, etc.,
Banks are becoming less reliable than in the past. The looming banking crisis is expected to be significant and devastating for those who are not ready. I recently withdrew $370k from my bank to invest in bonds and stocks of companies with strong cash flows. I think it's a great opportunity to seize the market for long-term profits. Any suggestions for promising stocks would be welcomed.
True. My $400K portfolio was diversified across several markets with the help of a financial planner, and were able to achieve over a million in net profit among high dividend yield equities, ETFs, and bonds. It is vital that you have a variety of exposure, including in firms that are currently generating cash flows.
thanks for this recommendation . I looked up her full name online and found her page. I emailed and made an appointment to talk with her; hopefully, she gets back to me.
I had a buddy just get out of jail for this same bs. He didn't care he made 7 million and didn't have to pay any money back. He did 2 years in jail for 7 million. Now he is just restoring old mopar. And he says he's loving life doesn't have to clock in.
I am real estate Invester investing in residential properties. I wanted to invest in commercial properties for sale but I see the numbers don’t make sense. He is right when he says sellers are inflating numbers.
buffett strategy over the last 20 years has underperformed S&P500. He was a brilliant investor (past tense). He has become another example of do what I say, not what I do. He is waiting for a big deal that may not happen in his lifetime.
So strange when I brought my first multi-unit they put me though the ringer even the property itself that needed work I dont get it how some are able to do fraud 2 of my favorite guys to listen to
I ran into problems… oh we have a 95 percent occupancy rate on this place. Then you do the diligence and it doesn’t add up or anything close. The problem is you have an occupied building and no-one is paying
Sorry. I don't buy this. I've been buying commercial properties for years. Never once has a commercial bank been this lackadaisical. Only in minute edge cases has this happened.
The banks are acting under FOMO might be the most ridiculous thing I’ve heard. I’ve been a real estate developer for ten years and then in banking for almost fifteen. I assure you, we are not acting the way you say.
Didn't banks learn anything about no disclosure loans in 2008? How do I meet some of these bankers who will loan money without requiring any real numbers?
DSCRs hold firm at 1.25. Currently private credit and banks are doing pretend and extends, payment in kind, or rebalancing. Mez debt is increasing and banks are requiring 50% LTC/LTVs. Underwritten properties/projects were done so with stupid sensitivity analysis projecting sustained low capitalization rates and rental projections. This had created many economic defaults and financial defaults, there’s not many “bad actors” as there are egregious moral hazard issues and overzealous assumptions. Most developers and investors were well capitalized based off of their assumptions, which were stupid at the time.
Crash fatigue is showing with most people. Most are so tired of hearing about the worse even though its true. We are being boiled slowly in the pot! I want to diversify my $80k portfolio.
I completely agree. It's not just about the dividends or profits, Diversifying a portfolio can be a smart move and i always advise one gets a professional to help out.
The issue is most people have the “I want to do it myself mentality” but not equipped for a crash that comes afterwards. Ideally, advisors are perfect reps for investing jobs and at first-hand experience, my portfolio has yielded over 300%, summing up nearly $1m, since covid outbreak to date
Vivian Jean Wilhelm is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Wow. This is 'kighting' on the large scale. 💡......🤯 ive been in banking my whole life. Always belonged to a credit union. You say we are in the 3rd inning of a 9 inning stretch. Do you think i have time to pull my money out into cash at end of sept when my cd matures? Or should i rip it out before then. I hate to lose the 'free money'. I plan to pull out all 50 after it matures but.
how i see it its a repeating circle.. housing crisis inflates prices, people want to buy houses stretch to thin and then default on them, the same with car payments, cars getting more expensive, the loans themselves have higher % on them so they get more expensive, and then people have to default on them.. in a world where my blue collar job pays enough to afford a nice car and a home and save up money, i dont need to take out big loans or overdraw 3 credit cards, in a world in which you you have to live basically in the slums to afford to live while you have a job, what you expect?
The buyer must require full recourse from the originator. It’s obvious. You know what would happen? There would be no originators. Just buyers with retail presence and an origination DEPARTMENT. Which is the way it was for the first 7,000 years of banking.
Hello , I am very interested. As you know, there are tons of investments out there and without solid knowledge, I can't decide what is best. Can you explain further how you invest and earn?
Same, I operate a wide- range of Investments with help from My Financial Adviser. My advice is to get a professional who will help you, plan and enhance your management skills. For the record, working with Georgette Wong, has been an amazing experience.
Hello how do you make such monthly?? I'm a born Christian and sometimes I feel so down 🤦♀️ of myself because of low finance but I still believe in God
I'm favoured, $90K every week! I can now give back to the locals in my community and also support God's work and the church. God bless America,, all thanks to Ms Georgette Wong 😊🎉
we have been papering over a depression,, we keep the unemployment low by just not counting people who gave up looking and dont get u/e pay.-- you can 'roughly' count them by counting the drug addicts on the street x10
I’m not sure your comments are completely correct. While I agree sellers and brokers try to sell based on next years potential rent revenue and perfectly managed expenses, buyer and banks are digging into the numbers more than they did 3 -4 years ago. I purchased 3 commercial medical buildings in the last year and our process is iron clad. We are not facing FOMO. On the other hand, the numbers on repositioning deals are all over the place. This could be where the fraud is in the market.
When you zoom out to such macro levels you must be disciplined to include other macro elements that weren’t previously in frame. One of which being the shifting geopolitical landscape-which fits massive advantage for US economy over the next 10-20 years. The FED is watching this and should the issues arise to catastrophic levels of which you speak the fed rate lever would be pulled to compensate… introducing yet another macro level x-factor.
what happens when you have 14 years of zero intrest rates? you get massive borrowing to ivest in asssets- when the cost of the debt rises, the assest values collapse. go figure.except the collapse will be across the econony- because the unsustainable debt is every hwerand recession will be sustained and deep.
Fraud on commercial loans are exaggerated. A recession in the market due to COVID and the resulting work from home phenomenon and higher interest rates did commercial office buildings in. Banks in Texas are very strict lenders on commercial real estate. It’s difficult to get these loans.
There is six trillion dollars waiting for the prices of everything to fall. The Treasury Secretary has been borrowing in short bills, and in 2025 the Federal government has one third of the 35 trillion dollar debt come due, and in 2026 another one third of the 35 trillion dollar debt is due. The six trillion dollars waiting for prices to fall is expecting for a bond prices to fall and real estate to fall.
Very bright interview, but dropping rates will also increase demand, I don't see housing prices going down unless we get a legit depression/great recession (10% unemployment)
We had better let those banks fail this time. They have got to learn the lesson. They are not doing their jobs but if you expect the taxpayer to pick up the bill without ant bankers going to jail for a very long time.
Gammon's stats are correct. But imagine if Bernanke did not go into QE overdrive around 2010-2013? I am sure the default rate would have hit at minimum 12%, double the 6% he quoted. RE commercial RE, esp the office bldgs, they have outlived its utilities...users who would normally need 30k sq ft, an entire floor are now happy w/ say 10k sq ft. The economy does not generate enough new businesses to absorb so much vacancies, all you get will be churns, B class users going to A products paying 70-80 cents on $ from their previous B products, leaving the B and C products in no man's land...As an example: go into any minority neighborhood w/ the 60-70's built office complexes, dilapidated, 50-30% leased max, useless except for the land beneath at best. This scenario might play out for 65% of all office products in a slow burn until everyone of those bldgs are simply money losers whereby NO ONE wants to touch it except for the land....
If CMBS swaps are booked to the degree of the swaps in 2008, we are in trouble, otherwise, we just have bad loans that will see some failures, but no systemic risk
George posts a lot of content and appears a good analyst, however, is he actually an independently successful investor in his own right? Why is his opinion valid? You personally clearly have a strong track record. What is George’s? Genuinely want to know.
Yes because recently arrived illegal immigrants are among the biggest consumers of new commercial/residential real estate - but because banks are choosing not to supply this influx of illegal immigrants with the new housing they desire by reducing the number of construction loans they normally give out - a recession is upon us. Makes total sense.
I heard a new term for vacancy today in a local newspaper; "available for occupancy". I guess that's the new politically correct word to use now. In this particular downtown area, the paper claimed a 28% "available for occupancy" rate.
been a subscriber to both. Don't they have both conflicting view points on what's going to happen in the residential market in the downturn? Ken basically states the supply is too low for any significant moves down in residential market. George seems to say regardless of the supply being low, the economic conditions are against the consumer and will be forced to sell based off unemployment and cost of ownership.
JP Morgan Chase is currently building branches at record speed (should have 500 new branches & 1700 current branches remodeled by 2027 ). Not sure what’s going on here (making themselves too big to fail ? ).
All that "good debt" you talk about is gonna turn bad real quick when those loans get called and cash flow starts reflecting those new insurance costs...
