POGAČAR & UAE Are Making MISTAKES 

I actually think there is some psychological power to how Tadej/ UAE handled Jonas once they had him isolated in the mountains. He is surrounded by UAE guys and lurking behind him in his wheel where he cannot see him Poggy.... Also he looked completely shattered by the end of the race. I know everyone is saying Jonas will continue getting stronger but it seems logical that his injuries would complicate his recovery, and that daily recovery process will be compounded over the next two weeks. I guess we'll see.

Never watched a race until 4 days ago. Now I’m watching the TV calling ayuso a knucklehead for not pulling. Appreciate the coverage - learning and understanding more makes watching much more enjoyable :)

I will write what I see others have pointed out already in the comments: 1. The plan was to attack sooner, but they decided against it because of headwind. I am sure that they know better than us sitting at home whether the wind was a problem for early attack or not. 2. There is no basis for belief that Jonas will keep getting better. He might just as well likely get worse. He is missing preparation and to me it's more likely that it shows in week 3, not week 1. If his main problem was lack of competitive racing before the Tour, then I would agree that he can ride himself into form. But this is different animal. 3. Ayuso was definitely not supporting Pogacar 100%. This might be his end of TdF participation as UAE rider. It's not just that Pogacar is there, but the other riders will not want to pull for him even if UAE is without Pogacar. He needs to be careful because if he gets reputation that he is not following team instruction and pulling for the captain, he will have problems throughout his career. You can't win anything alone.

The demolition job on the Galibier was the sort of thing that fans want to see - the raw power and total realisation of a team of riders who are immensely talented showing what they can do to their rivals. Almeida looked terrifying on the front, and seemed comfortable at 450 watts. This formation will strike so much fear into the peloton as we move further into the race. Just of the sight of them coming together again will break their rivals’ hearts. Massive respect to Jonas - his ability to suffer is second to none.

Enlightening analysis as always. However, I think it is also good to listen to what the protagonists had to say about how the stage develops. UAE riders changed their plan on the fly according to Gianetti (OK, some people will say he's not telling the truth but it is still interesting). They were all supposed to pull in turn with Yates being the last man. However, Yates did not feel good so he decided to go before. Then Almeida and Ayuso decided to take shorter turns because of the very strong headwind. Tadej said he did not attack before because of the wind. Only the last km is steep, so had he attacked before on the flatter 3~6% section Jonas would have stayed in the wheel benefiting from a lot of draft. Definitely looked like Ayuso wanted to play for himself a bit, but Almeida was amazing in reminding him who the boss is

Missed kuss today. That descent was definitely hair raising.

Ayuso is the weak link, for sure~he's just not reliable! Almeida was HUGE today, as was Politt. For sure, they weren't PERFECT~but at least UAE didn't blow up any of their guys too badly, so it's onwards and upwards to the final goal!🎖 Oh yeah, and Jonas LOST his whole team!!!😵‍💫

What a breakdown Chris! UAE could have put serious damage on the other riders and may have made this tdf a lot closer than it needs to be at this point. Wow heard that from no one else. Your videos are key to understanding what's really going on. Thanks again!

Ayuso looking like a old fox , playing the "i am tired" game ... If Almeida don't scream at him i bet he don't even come to the front.

Adam Yates comment on stage 4 with a subtle dig at his younger teammate(s): "I needed to do my job early, because some guys weren't in position, but yeah

Pog is definitely in a league of his own at this year’s tour. The team will fix their mistakes since they probably watch the best analyst that we love ❤❤❤❤

Chris I love the drama and the dynamics of racing… but this time I don’t think Jonas has time to recover. I think by day 14-16 all the guys that got injured will blow out. Every hilly stage UAE will go all out. Today they saved Adam.

Ayuso is a knucklehead ! He thinks he did himself a favor by holding back and not pulling... but in actuality he revealed himself to be a non-team player. Not to mention pissing off his teammates.

Pogocar wanted Jonas in front of him when he attacked. This way, he could get a couple of sharp pedal strokes into him before Jonas could react.

Pog said the headwind is why he did not go earlier

Have to disagree with your opinion about UAE having to be up front with wellens and soler when the rest were back in the group. It was a steady low percentage climb into a raging headwind. They were riding it fast enough that you know theres not going to be any GC attacks and by being further back in the bunch there getting better cover from the wind!

Jonas is amazing considering what he's been through..

man take a breath once in a while

The greatest RU-vid mystery is exactly why Campenaerts is ‘his’ man.

I'm in awe of Jonas, he was really effing injured, intensive care stuff, and evenpoel and Roglick, amazing/amazing drugs (who cares). Jonas is, however, at a severe disadvantage without kuss, so two big deal things, no Kuss and almost dying 4 months ago, still, it might be interesting soon. Pogacar got most of his time today on the descent, not the climb, mountain top finishes will tell the tail, hopefully

Ayuso needs a reminder what his job is. He is there first to help Pogi win the TDF. He was acting like a prima donna. First Ayuso doesn't climb well enough to win the TDF, but he is worrying about how he might finish in the tour instead of doing his job. I'm glad Almeida called him out in front of everyone. The is pro cycling and he isn't the leader of the team, so he better be working for the real leader of the team and the GC. Visma and Jonas are still dangerous if they improve as the TDF goes on.

Excellent video, as usual, and I loved the way you pointed out the little details and missed opportunities byUAE, like not putting himself at the road's edge downwind of his teammates.

Ayuso has non team player vibes by not rotating in with Almeida. Could be a problem later. He did redeem myself by getting the time bonus on the line. Good on Almeida for calling him out. VLB is in trouble if they can’t get their poop together. Was a bit disappointed that Wout pulled the pin so early. Wonder if this is a training block for the Olympics for him.

It would’ve been better to have a selfless super domestique climber like Rafal Majka. Ayuso seems to have his own agenda! Thankfully Adam and Joao are still working selflessly! A rider like Tadej comes once in a lifetime! But he can’t do it with the team! I hope they set Ayuso straight back at the post race team meeting! Thanks for the excellent race analysis! 👊🙏🦋

RedBull team seem to be lacking wings. Vlasov and Hindley nowhere, Roglic clung on by the skin of his teeth

Tom Pidcock is a guy who makes bad life choices and then blames the world for bad outcomes. Aka, a loser.

Interesting. Everyone I listened to, said the same thing about Ayuso debacle. Btw, question Chris. Maybe you can explain this for us all the fans on your next video. "How is it that everyone is saying that Jonas will get better week 3 while Pogacar was in the same situation, he finally ran out a gas on week 3? Jonas came to the race with lack of 100% form, just like Pogacar last year. Even Pogacar's injury and his time away from bike is a lot less than Jonas. Jonas came back from a hole on his lung. We all saw, same question was asked about Pogacar last year. Was he ready? And yes, Pogacar looked good (just like what we saw Jonas). But VL methodically tired Pogacar throughout the 3 weeks, until finally he cracked. So with that logic, how is it that Jonas will get better on 3rd week? Logic said that, if you don't have a good preparation, you are somewhat lack of your fitness. Eventually, things will unraveled. This is puzzling me. Why didn't we are all said the samething about Pogacar last year? Oh, Pogacar will get better. Or is it because after we saw Pogacar attacked and managed to drop Jonas, we all thought.. oh he was back to the Pogacar we know. I always believe, that his capitulation last year is mostly due to his lack of proper preparation. Yes, I understand about the physiology of each rider is different. But lack of form is lack of form. No? There's no magic bullet for that.

A near Perfect day by UAE and Pogi and this? LOL UAE are going to do to Jonas what JV did to POGI last year....basically hammer his legs at every chance and eventually, because of his "leas than Ideal" leadup, they will put more TSS into him than he can handle...that is what happened to POGI last year....

Easy to criticize UAE riders and tactics, they were all there, for all of us to see. Where was Visma? Where was Wout? Where the hell is Sepp / the “GC” Kuss / the Eagle / the American dream?? 🤷🏻‍♀️

Knuckleheads add entertainment value to a sport that can be kind of boring, especially over such long distances.

Team UAE rider time spent at the front of Pogacar's group on the Galibier: M. Soler: 15 sec A. Yates: 2 min 05 sec P. Sivakov: 3 min 20 sec J. Ayuso: 4 min 45 sec J. Almeida: 8 min Almeida's ride & leadership on the Galibier today was epic. 👏👏👏

Where the hell are the teammates of Jonas? Where is WVA? How is it possible to fight for the GC alone?

It was almost my bed time-glad this uploaded when it did!

Great coverage of the stage today. Like the knucklehead call on Wout and MVDP I do like how they race though just like to ride hard. Keep up the awesome inside take on the race.

Using your actual superior power IS a plan even if you don't handle crosswind positioning perfectly. In the past VG had a team to wear Pogy down, this time its reversed. VG might improve during the next weeks, it will be interesting to see if it is enough to make up whatever he loses in the first half. Fanboys of either side make wild unjustified predictions based on wishful thinking.

YOU are the very best Director Sportiv in the business. 100% no one comes close to you when it is about making the right calls for in-race strategies. Of all the directors, none has the vision of predicting the race as you visualize it. And of all the people in the World Tour business you are the best for telling others how they should race.

Didn't expect this analyse. A little surprise in a positive way. I agree with the Pogacar his top legs. I also agree with the opinion about how the UAE team worked: too much as individuals, not as a team.

I don't know if it's team tactics or personal gc ambition but Ayuso was not giving 100%. He was in 15 position when Almeida was pulling, and you can see that he was upset and looking Ayuso for a turn.

Are you as surprised with Remco as I am? He's doing better than he has in the past in the high altitudes.

Good analysis as always. Thanks. Just one thing: why is everybody saying Vingo will get better and Pogi could get worse? Last time I checked TDF was not a training ground but an exhausting torture that eventually tires people down, not freshens them up. Just my two cents..

did you hear Tadejs interview? the headwind was so strong he had to wait til 800 meters.. best 45 sec fuck up so far. Ayuso needs to check his ego

<a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="540">9:00</a> Chris there was mainly headwind that's why Pogi was sitting deep in the bunch to be as sheltered as possible. There was no way a GC guy was going to attack the UAE train at that stage of the stage

Bet that UAE team meeting was 'spicy' afterwards, cooled a little by the eventual outcome, but Ayuso was not all in for the plan. I heard SBS saying they could be targeting the White for Ayuso, but given Almeida's arm action, that can't be a stated priority (or he missed the briefing) 🤣. Normally, I'd be for Pogacar thinking of micro gains and I think he wanted a TT buffer (given last year...Just in case), but I think putting JV in the pain cave may pay off if he's not allowed to build form by staying within his limit and can't OPTIMALLY build his form during the race .

Wrong again...The headwind was the factor that changed UAE's tactics. They were limited there with the climb's gradient and headwind. The only way Pogi could have attacked earlier was if the team managed to isolate Jonas 8-5km before the top of Galibier (Jorgenson dropped 4,5km before the top). Why there? Because that's where the other "steep" part is (7-8%), along with the final 1km (9-10%). In that section Pogi has a chance to drop Jonas and enough uphill road to make a gap. On the 5-6% he wasn't going to drop Jonas and would just be wasting energy eating the wind while Jonas sucks his wheel as usual. So it was actually smart to wait for the final steep km and maximize the reward with a short burst. Now the Ayuso thing I agree with you. I won't speculate what was the thinking there, but he should have been at the front. The reason Almeida and Ayuso were rotating was the wind and also keeping them in the GC tactics game for the upcoming stages. Both are also good in the TT. Also, Jonas looked gassed at the top of Galibier and dead at the finish. I don't see him getting better in the 3rd week, if we take into account his shorter preparation due to injury, and the fact that he looked bad today (I was told long climbs, high altitude is his terrain and Pogi would suffer). This is the exact same reason Pogi faded at the end last year. How is it different logic this year? Last year Pogi lost a minute in stage 5 (Col de Marie Blanque) and had to claw back in the GC with bonus seconds and uphill sprints, only to then pay the price in the 3rd week. I don't see Jonas getting bonuses in sprints, so Pogi can play the waiting game (defensive) this time and be relatively "fresh" in the 3rd week. Visma also doesn't have the riders to put pressure on Pogi this time. UAE have the better team this year.

Well his team was far from perfect but in reality that was the best his team has ever been. Heck pog won both tours with next to no help.

Almeida doing God's work, his pull was massive and decimated everyone. Now wonder he turned to Ayuso to scold him.

I’m very surprised by Jonas, he outperformed. Think he was at the limit to damage control though, the TT will be interesting. Pogi is the guy to beat for sure with the strength of UAE

How can you rank Wout ahead of MVdP? MVdP always beats him in every race they go head to head their entire career.

Pogi is a monster. Jonas is amazing all things considered but he does not have the talent of tdf team UAE supporting him. Only knucklehead tactics will even this up as was partially seen today. Roglic needed the american flying eagle dragging him up the mountain as much as Jonas needed him. It is funny how clear it is that domestique's really make the difference. These top riders are very strong but domestiques really relax how much strength you need each day. The more I learn about cycling the more I appreciate team tactics.

poggy should have wait for the time trial,to put his effort . hard climbs in the last week ! njoylife

I watched my first tour in 1995 (Lance Inspired) and have not missed one since (30 years, 630 stages…what?). That has morphed into a yearly routine of 3 grand tours, several one week races, top one day races, national and world champs, and of course shows like Horner, Lanterne Rouge, GCN and others. At some point I realized “strategy” was the allure. Strange as it sounds I will watch the race and then eagerly await Horners show, so I can understand what it is I just watched. Am I a blockhead, or are there others like me? As an Oregonian I took note of Chris in the 90’s. Not only his ability but loved his affable approach to the press. The ability to read a race and then communicate it as if reading from a book, why is Chris Horner not the top network person, or a DS?

Van der Poel was there to get some practice in for the Olympics.

even if ayuso, almeida, a.yates were to pull full gas on the galibier and pogacar attacks 2 or 3km from top, there was no way to drop jonas, since pogacar's attacks would have distanced remco and roglic, but Jonas is the better climber he would have enough distance to recover if its on a longer climb. So I think UaE did a good job except for ayuso who held back. TP is on form but JV should not be underestimated he fought back well, if RE caught up with JV earlier probably they would have brought down the damage to 20-30 sec.

Great points, Chris. UAE not perfect but they still looked impressive... thanks in large part to Almeida. Almeida looked like a field general leading the charge, energizing and admonishing people where needed.

Chris there was always reason for Tarej bad day in previous TdF. Nutrition, wasting energy, Visma super team, wrist injury. I feel like the only factor this year could be Giro in his legs but it could be covered by his team who has finally got an advantage over Visma this year.

Much as I love chris' strategy analysis always, i have to disagree UAE messed up, cos their ultimate and only rival is rightfully JV. None of the other GC contenders comes close to Pogacar in form or power. Once they saw JV isolated and riding without teammate support, thats gonna be the best time to attack and put time. Also pogacar said in a post race interview that he had been training on Galibier for many times and is very familiar, thus the scary fast descent he made to put in even more time after the climb. Imho this was a good plan by UAE to close the door on JV

Someone at work, told me pogi cut of more than a minut on the KOM, thou they had a headwind, crazy speeds.

Love it . Ayuso making it entertaining in the UAE team, surprised Adam blew up early but maybe he is saving himself too

Jonas Vingegaard did say he expected to be 2 minutes behind at this point. But with Juan Ayuso playing games might have helped Jonas Vingegaard on Col du Galibier keeping it down to 7 seconds (if I remember correctly). The chasers group putting Vingegaard to the sword 🗡️ is what really helped Tadej Pogačar. But I think you're wrong. By hurting Vingegaard instead of working to close the gap to Pogačar. That says to me they are racing for 2nd.

ooo that was spicy fun. Great stage.

Mad respect for Pogi for attacking on such a strong headwind and also his descent on a mostly wet road gave me Savoldelli vibes

I was impressed how good Remco was on the climb and how bad he was on the descent. Will be interesting to see how many seconds with his current form he can gain on Friday's TT.

I haven't realized how big Nils Politt is.

remco is a freight train chooo choooo!!

I felt Jonas erred on the side of caution today, probably still have his crash in mind. Otherwise physically 100%

Carlos Rodriguez is an extremely good endurance rider he does his best performances when everyone is at high fatigue, just can't handle accelerations and loses time on short climbs. Remco was looking extremely good on this stage he even said in a interview that he considered attacking. I don't think either of them or Vingegaard is gapped even if Ayuso and Almeida ride full gas, so It would still be up to the Pogacar attack to get them off the wheel. Main difference if they ride full gas is Roglic losing more time.

This was kinda demolition exhibition by UAE. The tour pitched GC quite early this year. Its no joy for the sprinters

Great recap as usual Chris!! Love watching & learning!

I loved this stage and your commentary. So much snow left up there. Are most of these fellas very familiar with the climb and the descent into Valloire? New record set on Galibier as Tadej blew up Loius Mentijes old one.

Not a fan of this descent finishes. They are a little anti-climatic.

seems to me the heat in stages one and two dictated the present closeness of the GC after today. Whenever TP usually has bad days it's usually in severe heat during long climbs after multiple long grinding climbs. Today didn't fit that profile. But since we are all claiming hypotheticals, the heat in stages one and two might explain why TP and UAE didn't try to blow the race up on those two first states. JV said post-race today he had expected to be down by 2 minutes after 4 stages

Jonas can’t be expected to beat Tadej and his whole team without any riders from Visma pulling for him. Wout is riding at the back of the Peleton.

It was an amazing stage and unfortunately we have to rule out almost the whole peloton for the tour lol. What a great day

I reckon MvdP was just trying to get a head start on the climb, Pogačar also has to worry about losing time in the TTs

I'm quite new at this, but comparing last year, where was Jonas team through this climb? IMO it was pretty much one sided, 1vs4 and Jonas was left pretty much on his own, compared to last year when he had at least one or two of his teammates for this sort of climbs

Chris knows what he is saying more than anyone here ...yes indeed UAE is more power but no plan, let's see this coming 2 weeks, it's just the 4th day of 3 weeks....

@chris MVDP considers this a training day. Some block training of 300-320 watts.

Knucklehead count: 4 Three of the for Vanderpoel.

Great commentary. I think Ayuso was holding back because he has his own objectives. It’s reminiscent of LeMond and Hinault or Armstrong and Contador. Tadej was a monster on the descent, just amazing. It’s not over by a long shot. Grand tour riders create more drama than Cheerleaders vs Pom Pom girls.

One thing I don't get (never followed cycling closely). Why is it an advantage to have you teamates in the break? Isnt Vinedergard getting the same toe Pogaçar is when he follows theme up the mountain? In the end it stays Pogaçar vs Vinegard anyway.

I actually think they did a real good job. Pogacar is still measuring his competition, believing Jumbo isn't showing their real cards, over hyping JV injuries.

@<a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="659">10:59</a> Almeida's wearing the wrong helmet. Looks like a Met Manta. Great for aero but subpar for breathability on climbs. On a warn day, this is a huge factor.

Pog was great! I liked Almeida calling out Ayuso, get your ass up here and work. Does look like a clarification session may be in order for UAE. Maybe being a worker bee for Pog is just not enough fun for a couple of those guys. Thanks, Chris! Btw, I recently enjoyed your vid from a while back on cleaning a bike, simple and helpful.

I saw a bit of Bruyneel talking about Ayuso and that is one of the biggest sub plots to the current situation. One point he may have said that you emphasized here, if he is not going to work, it's the team leaders job to go and tell him to get up there and do his job! Haven't seen something like this in a while, does leave open for the other teams to start the mind games perhaps?

Here is a scenario. Jonas isnt quite in top form yet so Poggy goes nuts when possible to drop him bigtime, it will work or by week 3 Poggy is exhausted after Giro and Jonas rides into form

what nightmare tactics outside Ayusso maybe not wanting to give it all they were pretty much perfect tactically on stage 4

They can all the mistakes they want, except Polit, they can win with all 7 riders. Crazy support team, magic backstage :)

holy moly! I clicked on your video ramdomly, I looked at you and I thought you looked awfully familiar... then I read the name of the channel and... holy moly is Chris F***ing Horner!!!! I'm so glad i'm here now :D

Think Pog said there was a headwind in the last few K's. Ayuso is a problem for sure. Geraint said on podcast that he reckons Jonus is looking a bit soft (think they called him Fat Jonus). Think Geraint said he looked a bit bigger than previous years. Guess there's nothing better than the Galibier to shave off a bit of extra weight. Reports of remco being fat are no longer true as they said he looked a lot lighter than at Dauphine, pretty ripped. Personally I hate downhill finishes as it brings on high speed crashes, the worst kind of crash. I'd like to see Pog make a first selection of rider and have his Team take him down the other side. Guess he's trying to get Jonus early, if Jonus can ride himself in. Also, three of the top GC Guys have had that bad crash on descent so they might be nervous of the downhill and that could've been a tactic for Pog.

<a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="1280">21:20</a> I totally agree the Tour won’t be boring

Finally UAE revenged by mirroring Visma's tactics. Seriously, this is big. Leaving Jonas alone was Visma's huge mistake. What was Wout Van Aert doing finishing 26 mins back? Knucklehead move. Especially funny hearing that Visma expected this stage being one of the most tough and dangerous. C'mon. Why are your riders hunting for points then?

Politics in UAE! Not good.. Good thing is last year Tadej had cold sore chiclets around his mouth from being sick. I'm positive that affected him. Le Tour is 🔥 up 👍🏻💯🚵🏽‍♀️🇨🇵

Cavendish 35

After all most of these riders are still late teenagers -- you don't expect guys in their early 20s, athletic, full of power and hormone... to race a race with a cool mind and cold heart, unmoved, as like someone who is in 30s or 40... However isn't this blunt nucklehead-ness making such a race fun to watch ??? I think Pogacar is more interested in testing Jonnas, to see if he's a match. After all the last 2 encounters he's lost. Now he's in good shape and I bet the biggest wondering in his mind is to see if Jonnas is in good shape, and how good that is. The other riders they watched Giro and probably raced it and they know well you just can't follow Pogacar on such a climb. His teamates probably have a consensus that Pogi doesn't need them and if they attack together then Pogi can't get too much of benefits as in time, and the other riders severely burnt out all for nothing. Also there's a clear pattern emerged that 1. Pogi's strategy seems to be only to attack on the steepest climb where he can magnify the time gained to the most, with full force. With the same matches burned, this is the way to maximize the time gained. 2. To gain a significant amount of time in the very early stages of races, so he have more room to "not react" in the later stages. Don't forget how he lost the race -- I don't remember exactly which year, but it's the day that the other leading group riders working together, each of them attack once, pogi follows, then another one attack, pogi follows, for a several around, only in this way that he could be worn down so that in the final climb he blows up. In this case it's because the time is so close that he has to react to each of them, because if any of them succeed, he lose the race. But for the other riders, then can only win only if Pogacar is pulled down from the throne. Currently this seems the only effective way to beat Pogi in such a race, and Pogacar himself knows it. So now we get what we see. It's better to use his superior fitness to have a big time lead in the early stages, than to conserve for the later. In this way he prevents the potential "wear down by the group" situation in which he lost, and probably would shut some of other attempts down before it's even happening. I think when your fitness level are higher than just a margin over your rivals, the strategy changes. The relationship between you and your team mates, you and other riders changes... This could be the better play given current situation.

I hear some said Jonas used 1×. That's why pogi attack on climbing as well as decending

Ayuso is a young, supertalent, and I am sure he already has the mindset of a winner. In his mind, he's thinking about personal success as well. He was not working 100% for his leader (Pogacar). That's why Almeida got so upset. It's not easy to be the technical director of UAE. I am pretty sure he got a talk with Ayuso.

Yes, good analysis. But, we don't know their plan for the stage, so what we saw could be perfect. Also we don't know the long term plan. Everybody seems extremely pleased with the outcome. The sports director, Maxctin, was all over ayuso with kisses and hugs.

Knucklehead Palooza 2024. Bring on the great racing and the always entertaining team drama 😂

Mathieu after finish: Oh, I had good legs, it's more relaxed riding in the front group, I'm just here to get some race hardness in the legs. As for UAE you're absolutely right. If they played it right, put the rest in the wind while rotating them selves they would have killed all competition and won tour de france on the Galibier, hell they would be standing 1, 2 and 3

I’d disagree sure they could’ve done better but they weren’t bad either. UAE has such a better team compared to the rest. I think Pogi will end up winning the Tour by a couple minutes