It’s annoying when people leave more than one comment I know ha, but just wanted to say I’m halfway through the vid and I really hope you both continue to upload more Oscar content. This is a great conversation and a nice alternative to the Oscar Expert. Keep it up!
Thanks for the viewership. I also really dug A Complete Unknown's trailer (not biased or anything since I am sorta named after it's titular character or anything) - D
I think that you guys are underestimate Sing Sing for Best picture and Colman Dingo for Best Actor,his narrative is that he was just nominated for Rustin and you just had Cillian Murphy win for a subtle not a loud showy performance. Some of the movies that are on both of your lists don't have distribution and what if they have been seen but still nobody buys it. I don't know what it is about The Piano Lesson that scares you guys to have it on your list on the lower level and The Piano Lesson is a great play and the play in my opinion can translate to the big screen flawlessly.
I could be proven wrong with Sing Sing (Dyl does still have it at #2) but it's just not feeling right for Picture because I don't see it taking the other main prizes. For Domingo, he may have a narrative, but I just think Fiennes has a stronger one. You can win for an understated performance, but it's hard if your film isn't winning Best Picture (Murphy in Oppy and McDormand in Nomadland are the prime examples). We're both keeping the movies with no distribution lower for exactly that reason. Who knows if they get distribution! That's why I'm shakier on Queer and The Brutalist (but would put The Brutalist into my 10 if it had distribution). Piano Lesson is close to my top 10! Sitting at #13! I'm keeping it out for the moment because I see the August Wilson movies as having diminishing returns, and with a director that has no experience, I'm not sure how it'll play out beyond the performances. But I could see it being a smash hit out of the festivals. - M
I'm mostly in agreement with Matt's takes here. My main gripe with Sing Sing is that it seems to be the big consensus prediction so early on, those usually don't pan out. A CODA type trajectory happens when we least expect it. I do think actors will keep it in the stronger position than Past Lives though. Co-sign with everything regarding Saturday Night. It's a sleeping giant as far as I'm concerned. Every year there are fall festival breakouts. I don't even agree with the sentiment about atypical biopics not doing well, one won Best Picture last year. I get the thought process around I'm Still Here, but I really wanted to see that at NYFF main slate. My thing with Anora is, that every single Best Picture winner has had a strong narrative in the last few years. What would Anora's be? Maybe if it becomes a box office hit (which I really think it can) there is something there. Blitz is such a weird one. Red flags galore, but I have a hard time seeing McQueen making something mediocre. Personally speaking, the plot synopsis has made me less intrigued I was before. It being another war through the eyes of the child film is less interesting than I imagined a Steve McQueen WWII epic being. Feeling it gets a similar reception to last years NYFF closer Ferrari (good reviews, but just doesn't pan out). You didn't mention Queer here, I would like to hear why you guys have it so low. That is one film I genuinely don't know what to do with.
I'm Still Here not being on the NYFF main slate is WEIRD. A minor red flag, but a red flag nonetheless. I feel like Anora's narrative is partially around the social issue (destigmatizing sex workers), and partially an EEAAO-esque "love of indie cinema" narrative. Of course it may not have the same notoriety with the cast, but I think the film elicits similar feelings. For Queer, part of the reason it's low on my list is the same as The Brutalist - no distribution yet. I'm not jumping on the "A24 secretly bought it" train, based on a DeuxMoi post - that's crazy. Plus, the subject matter and treatment sounds like it could be a bit much for the Academy (a bit of a double standard, since I have Anora as my winner). It also has some of the same problems as Challengers - it's totally Gen-Z coded, and so it makes sense why Gen-Z film twitter is so stoked about this movie. I just don't believe it'll break out and be *that much* more undeniable than Challengers.
@@fantasyfilmball Good points about Queer. People really seem to be rooting for it because they want Luca to do well this year. Some have called it more ”baity’ than Challengers, idk about that. People also got real mad at me for pointing out that it’s a bit off that it’s a NYFF Spotlight Selection instead of a Main Slate one (I think it’s still a good sign but it might indicate it’s not gonna land at 90s for Metacritic). Regarding both it and Anora and their subject matters, the entire year I’ve felt there is no room for both in Picture, idk why. Also I feel the Deuxmoi post is was fake, if it was bought we would’ve heard that now.
Since A24 decided to release Sing Sing in the summer, seemingly following last year’s plan where Past Lives came out in the summer and The Zone of Interest came out in December, what will mostly likely be A24’s #2/#1? Obviously there was that DeuxMoi post about them circling Queer, but do you think they could pick up another film that doesn’t have a distributor yet?
I don't think so, personally. I think Sing Sing is just their horse. Although... The Brutalist does feel much more on brand for A24 than Queer does (that never felt right to me as an A24 movie, I don't buy the Deuxmoi post at all).
I heard that people from inside Sony Classics are saying there will be a big campaign for I’m Still Here and I haven’t heard the same about The Room Next Door so it will really depend on the reception I guess.
I agree! That's the only thing keeping me hopeful. Everything else is just reeeeed flags (but i trust Justin Chang and even if the Oscars don't love Blitz, I still look forward to it) - M
I should point out that he’s a part of the NYFF selection team, so I’m a little cautious on how much stock to take in it. But it certainly doesn’t hurt
Don’t even get me thinking about Rachel Sennott having a chance at winning an Oscar. I genuinely feel she should’ve won in 2023 for her hilarious performance in bodies bodies bodies.
Sing Sing is the BEST MOVIE of the year and deserves nominations in most categories. The movie was shot on 16 mm film, in 19 days, with a very small crew. The DP, Pat Scola should be nominated for an Oscar for cinematography because the visual look, the lighting, the film choice, all created the naturalistic atmosphere to tell the story. Accompanied with Bryce Dessner's score that sells the beautiful scenes and intimate facial expressions. And kudos to the director, Greg Kwedar, who allowed dialogue to be ad-libbed at times, which created the emotional essence throughout the film that tugs at your heart. The cast deserves best ensemble because 90% of the cast are the formerly incarcerated men that participated in the RTA theater program while in Sing Sing and that authenticity shines. And what can you say about Coleman Domingo.... he deserves the Oscar this year, his performance is perfectly understated, and he allows the other men to shine because this is their story. Well Done!! Also, Clarence Maclin and Paul Raci both deserve best supporting nominations. Their performances tie the strings that pull the film to its brilliance. Best movie overall in a very long time and well worth the emotional journey.
I hope Sing Sing does not win best picture. Other than the prisoner narrative, there is no reason for it to win. After seeing it, it is not a great movie. Very weird, hard to understand motivations. Personally, I am still looking for a movie to root for.
