Predicting Stock Price Mathematically 

I use the "sit and watch the price until I figure out the trend, then buy at the low and sell when it does what I know it's going to do" technique.

very important to understand you have to continuously do this for multiple time sets. daily 5 min, 10 day 10 min 30 day 60 min 3 month daily 6 month daily 1 year daily and 5 year weekly. Figure out each respective probabilty and then use comparative analysis and prob dist to figure out your daily prediction trends. Then compare your trends with hthe Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD indicator) on each of the same chart sequences as above. Then cross 4 EMA with each chart. if the chart patterns are consistent you no longer have randomly distributed data, rather a glorified gambling set that dramatically increases both your odds and gains.

Its a good education video... It has its limitations, but i dont see the people who are commenting the negative comments come up with a better way to do it.

i used his technique on a stock i'm familiar with and it proved accurate despite naysayers in the comment section.

This is a very dangerous video clip from the comments below people with limited knowledge believe that these relative cumulative frequencies are probabilities, there not, and that probability estimates are predictions, they are not they are likelihoods, not predictions. what your graph is is a cumulative frequency ogive, not a probability distribution, and you are not calculating probabilities but relative cumulative frequencies, then subtracting them from each other this is not probability. I will post a reply to this on youtube in the upcoming weeks explaining basic quantitative finance 101, you also calculate your returns incorrect the percentage change is the estimate of daily returns.

Video: Predicting stock prices of Google Uses Yahoo for the analysis

Bro , hats off to you , you explained so much maths that most of us don't understand motive of calculation

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you are calculating the volatility instead of direction

graph reading is much easier way to identify price rejection/bounce and direction...

Fundamental Flaw in the approach - So basically if you select the highest percentage change (max positive % change) then you get very high probability almost close to 1, which means you have high chance that stock will show huge increase ? Do you think that make sense ?

I always read comments first before watching the videos.Hence,l am leaving.Bye.

hi, in the end you just told us, the probability of a stock moving above or below is the same. So which means we basically cannot predict how it moves ? Right ? Effective market hypothesis right ?

I learnt a new function(small) in excel from this video.. Apart from it every thing else is real crap..

Really nice video. What would be interesting is to see is if these probabilities remain more or less constant for a company/asset over consequent years and thus consistent for the purpose of projections

At 1:53, don't you have to divide it by the previous price, 733.76? You said it right but divided by 731.25 instead.

This is a good Excel tutorial, if you ignore the fact that it’s not going to help you predict anything with a bette chance than random

This is a fantastic video and explanation... thanks!

This is extraordinary in every way. I recently read a similar book, and it was extraordinary in every way. "The Art of Meaningful Relationships in the 21st Century" by Leo Flint

But where is the rightness proof? Can you justify your prediction/probability for a value that you have got the very next day.

It is the probability of the particular series and can not be used for live market or for trading. The Vdo can be considered as an Excel tutorial and not for stock price prediction.

What is the time frame for your probability analysis? Like at 9:00 where you talk about the probability of the stock staying under 2% and above -5%...in what time period will that probability prove effective?

Can't predict market sentiment.. If it was this easy Warren Buffet would own the whole Stock Exchange and every listed company in the Nasdaq and Dow Jones Lol

Great video! Helped me a lot.

Trading has nothing to do with probabilities. It's all about order flow. Hint: I don't use moving averages much anymore ( you eventually move past the need for em ), but if price has been moving down without closing above a moving average then closes above the average at a point, something has changed in the order flow.

This is equivalent to predicting the future... Does it do better than random ?

what is your opinion about technical analysis using smc concepts or fundamental analysis and use this method, do you think that if you use maths and TA you have more % to win?

What is the probability of success of this probability working. The assumptions themselves are probable. Market is very dynamic. The emotions, sentiments, psychology, liquidity, micro and macro economic parameters etc., are the factors for price movements. Mathematics require certain amount of facts and discipline. So many statistical measures and probabilities are built into Technical Analysis - even then - none can assure the indicators and oscillators working up to 100% accuracy. The Research says that only 2 to 3% of the Traders make money in Intra-day and Swing-Trading.

It is possible to the same thing in Libreoffice Calc? I'm not using MS products.

So with this graph and numbers when do I start buying and selling when proba8is low or high ?

That's such a bullshit. These probabilities have no actual causality with individual pricing. Why do you sort by change and tie it with count column ? If you want to find changes, use conditional probabilities

This is a good one sir ,Even after watching most trading videos I never thought it was ever possible till I got my first profit through Mr Romero pieto , All it take is to earn his good guidance.

Basic mistake..Should be B3 - B2 . Whole thing is flawed.

I may not have PhD in Statistics but I can easily tell this way of assigning probabilities using frequencies is a very poor way to judge the probability of stock movement for a given time frame. This method is no different from the coin toss experiment and thus the latter gives you more or less the same results.

Super informative... Can you do an episode of an analysis of Petroski (Score 9) stocks...There seems to be information that these petroski 9 stocks outperform the sensex by 100% over time... Considering we are in coronavirus lockdown...can you check on these companies...their financials are some of the best within their respective sectors Indraprashta medical Resonance specialty Jagsonpal pharma Blue star

I think volume also consider. and other thing is need to find mean and standard deviation. Then need to find the probability through stanaderd normal distribution.

how to download this excel sheet

If we believe that the share market is gambling then why do we invest in mutual funds? It simply depends on our attitude. Subscribe : #sharemarketdiaries

Your asking the probability of an event happening, or price range, BUT for what time frame? this does not address the time period. You’re looking up about 400 days or so of the stock’s historical prices, so does this probability answers is the answer for daily price fluctuation or for a longer time frame?

Excellent Sir

That's one way to calculate probability. Another way is to use NORMDIST function in Excel (ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-bWh7Av_PavY.html) or the monte carlo simulation (ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-wKdmEXCvo9s.html)

How can we predict the market using math? I believe it's possible through Fourier series and a few other views. Please help 🆘 I just don't understand how to get the wave form of the market and then calculate a point in time to predict the price. Itself sounds simple but idk what to

CAN WE USE THIS FOR INTRADAY

I belive you can use percentile and percentile rank to figure some of this aswell

read all CPY the reports and company future planning it will give clear cut ideas..

Yes it does help... thanks for sharing

No, no, no. You did probabilities all wrong. Your count does not equivocate to frequency of that net change from a simple sort of range of minimum to maximum. That’s why you’re getting messy errors towards the bottom: no stock would rise 16%, 15%, etc. 98%, 99%, etc. You need to calculate the standard deviation of the stock price over a set of time to understand the volatility of the stock’s price movement, and then do regression analysis with certain degrees of freedom to forecast the stock’s price with a selected confidence level.

Looks like a really fun excel exercise, but any real trader will tell you there are way more variables in a stock's movement than it's past price performance. A single news release can throw the whole thing into undeserved selling or unwarranted buying. In the end it is always speculation, not concrete math that accurately predicts the stock price. If it was only math, then anyone who traded would be a millionaire in less than a year. Which obviously isn't the case. Good video though, very interesting.

great video. how effective is the probability ratio in forecasting index trend ?

What is small functions?

what was the point ? .. how did you predict the stock price here ? .. do you even understand the meaning of the English words, which titles this video ? .. what a waste of time

How to extrapolate this method of stock market

This guy have a super power that he can make anyone sleep ... Am almost sleepy ... Yawn ...

i couldn't understand this prediction and calculations.. how to use this can you please explain this calculation,, it helps a lot.

Haha.. simplicity at its best but let me try to extrapolate your study. Do this same thing for one month rolling change instead of daily and taking longer history. Then if prob of moving between -2 and +2 is say 65% then write a call and a put with one month expiry and strike in that range from cmp, which would suggest your winning rate is 65%.

No excel File to download?? (cry)

Can u share this excelsheet

great!! is there any samples?

This is good, but then again markets can act irrationally and break high/low barriers

Hi Very interesting, explained well. This helps probability of stock going up or down based on pasted history. So yes good stocks have equal probability of going either way. What mathematical formula is used using time/dates and price during a period to determine that the price is mathematically low in a period of time.?

How can you predict government policies and etc.. and people demand and interest generally

How we know sensex closing

I think you forgot to normalize the data, before determining probability.

Where is predication

Look at all the prices from Count 1 to Count 6, it is decreasing from one day to the next but in Column C his calculation is showing a positive percentage change. Is this logical?

All the data is weighted equally, unfortunately this is not how the stock market works.

Nice, thank you.

I don't think you understand probability and statistics properly and made this video. There are several mistakes in this video, first, what you are calculating in Column E is not the probability but cumulative probability distribution function values (that's what you plotted) from which of course you can derive the probability but is not same. Second and most important, you are using simple frequency based definition of probability which is very susceptible to how many samples you take. E.g., the first value in column D is based on only one sample which is not at all acceptable to compute probabilities statistically. You must take data for over several years then only you will be able to calculate proper probabilities. Also, this probabilities on their own don't give any information what so ever as they will never tell you in which sequence events will occur and you have rely on law of large numbers of observe those probabilities in real life. So practically this method is mostly useless!

you started confusing while telling probability less than a particular value, ideally, it should be a sequence of events, not an individual event

Great video. Thank you Sir. Where can i download your spreadsheet ?

This guy doesn't know what he's talking about. If he did he would have given a time duration, not merely it has X probability to go Y percent without specifying the duration of time. I can say a stock will double, if I'm talking about 10 years.

I lost money 😡

full confused,,,,,no logic,,,pls explain wht is % changes sort,,,and the way u calculate for % change is ryt ? i think the equation is for % change =(B3-B2)*100/B3........pls let me know if it is wrong and why ,

what a waste of time... we can find this out by just looking at a simple candlestick chart with sma

Bhai probability pdha h kbi, 16% ki probability 1 means daily 16% increase hoga. Mtlb kuch b.

hi dude, good explanation but we don't know whether it decreases or increases today/tomorrow, please provide that details if any.

Horse racing would be a better probability to perform better. Would rather suggest don't display such crap

Isnt it like this? Change in percentage= (b3-b2)*100/b2 Eg. ∆P=(1100-1000)*100/1000 =10%

i just buy when its price down 30% and sell while up 30% ,could you give me advice ?

i work in a trading company i want to download the video please help regarding downloading

what time horizon is this for?

Good job thanks

My broda ur accent is fonny ….😂 so iz mine

I like it, but a bit convoluted.

I believed its gonna be an intresting video, but u end up in one desert, feeling lost

Had you been so good in trading, you won't be posting videos like this for making money through monetisation on RU-vid. An expert in trading don't have much of time to post stupid foolish videos like this which is of no sense. Just posting something which is not relevant with the prediction of stocks value in the future, just so to make money through monetisation. Real traders don't have the time to post such videos, They can earn much through trading.

Do you have any of your spreadsheets for download?

Thanks to Mr George with his amazing strategies in stock market, I keep making more profits like never before.

what a foolish method is this. no logic here. simple example if the prob is 50% for stock to moove from 0-15 % then definitely the chances of moving stock between 0-1% should be much more then 50% but here it shows 28%.... whatever is shown in xls sheet is all wrong and not at all logical.

moreover the title is absolutely misnomer

SELL BITCOINS AND INVEST IN GOLD OR OTHER CRYPTO...

Market is

THIS IS A GOOD VEDIO .... IT HELPS ME A LOT..... BCZ THIS STRTEGY ALSO BE IN MY MIND....BUT I CONT DO IT BECOZ I DONT KONW HOW CAN DEVELOP THIS

when I hear the indian accent, I run

One video that made me understand at least something about how they calculate stock price..

kyu dimag chat rehe ho ...bhai

Excellent ❤️ vai...

b lil bit louder

Hi, Great video!! But unless I'm mistaken, there is a contradiction betwwen the calculated results and the graph. According to the graph, the probability of a price move between 1 & 2% is close to 70%. The calculated result gives a probability of 28.676%. Would substracting that number from 1 give us a result which matches the graph?

not working. useless.