As a life long Djokovic fan, you just can't compare this Nole to the one even from last year let alone to the one from his prime. He is a 37 year old on a bad knee while Carlos is in peak of his powers. As much as I wish I am wrong, Carlos will run over Nole in 4 maybe even 3. Stats are great, but they reflect Noles path in the last 15 years, but unfortunately, he is not the same player anymore
Carlos is not at his peak , he is 21 . His peak will come in 3 or 4 years like it happened to Nole. The difference is by that time Carlos might have already 10 slams .
I say this is gonna be on Alcaraz mostly. If he plays close to his best I see no chance for this version of Nole. If Alcaraz has too many mental lapses, that is where Djokovic might have a chance
Logical comment ! Alcaraz has been a "monstar" at times in moments as Medvedev has said in this tournament, the thing is if he can keep his game simple I do not see Novak surviving. Novak needs to win initial set to have a chance. Novak has not played an elite player as Gill mentioned this tournament, facing intense and persistent game of alcaraz might potentially upset his rhythm during the start of the game, thus, giving Carlos the required confidence. I feel the torch of being current generation's champion will be handed over on Sunday officially.
@@jonbonesmahomes7472 Yeah indeed it's really sad that this is the first Major Final for Novak where he not only is the underdog but he actually doesn't stand a chance, it's been a long time coming but this will open his eyes that retirement is calling for him, the results on Sunday will be a warning for him, Alcaraz will brutally beat him !
Carlos officially crushed Novak today and officially ended the Big 3 era. He also became THE FIRST PLAYER IN HISTORY TO WIN in his FIRST FOUR Slam Finals appearances on THREE DIFFERENT surfaces, all under the age of 22 !!!!!!!!!!!😮😮😮😮 Ladies and Gentlemen - Alcaraz is just getting warmed up now …….👏👏👏🙏🙏🙏
To win his first few slams on every surfaces is an indication that he stands a good chance of surpassing the big3's tally. Fed and Novak were often stopped by Nadal on clay, and Nadal's foot birth defect related problems stops him from winning more on grass and hard ... Barring any catastrophic injuries or other personal problems, Alcaraz is a good bet to be so dominant in the future, but of course no one knows if there will be another new player emerging to challenge him, he better take advantage of the edge he has now ....
That’s one problem with making public predictions-they give you a reason not to change them so as to avoid admitting an “error.” As I noted on the Three video, at Wimbledon, going into the final, Alcaraz had beaten players with a combined 14,201 ranking points, Djokovic just 9,530, and if you pull out the de Minaur walkover, 5,700 points. Among other things, that is new information that might have led you to think that Alcaraz was playing better than Djokovic. I don’t say that this information was decisive, but I do say that predictions tend to be better the more they rely on new information.
Better than last year ? No , no he is not and neither is Novak . Both are worse but yes Alcaraz is a young lion that just refuses to die . Novak is the same but the age is a factor and his game simply isn't on the level of last year where you kind of feel like he threw it , he had many chances but that is why winning all 4 slams is so hard , to be the best always is almost impossible . My prediction is a Novak fan is that Alcaraz takes it in 4 .
The thing people are not getting is that after getting past the first week, it’s been difficult for any player to make Novak play on their own terms. Carlos isn’t just any player of course but I don’t see Novak letting this one slip
NOVAK MUST be PREPARED for UNFAIR UMPIRING! Because Alcaraz Will, Again, get 'a bit' of help from the friendly Umpire, at Important Moments! Got it also at RG, against Zverev
Deluded djokovic fanboys at it again . The guy played a draw which my grandma could've beaten . Hasn't beaten a top 10 player all year and you say he is favourite against the most recent slam winner and defending wimby champion?😂😂😂 Djokovic is getting retired on sunday whether you like it or not .
I had the pleasure and privilege of being there yesterday. Amazing day. All I can say is that the best two grass court players in the world were both dazzling. It will be a remarkable final. My hunch is that Alcaraz will take it in five. Not least because Carlitos is a total beast in 5th sets.
@@novakgoatovic Stop it man, it ain't happening, at best Novak might steal 2 sets but there's no way he takes it home in five sets against Alcaraz who is the new best in five setters ! Anyway i would say it doesn't go five, Alcaraz secures this in 4, that's my predictions, i actually expect it to end in straights rather than five sets !
@@michaelmartin9447 med ain't alcaraz, and you posed the question. Something tells me I wouldn't be engaging in a good faith discussion by continuing here, so let's just agree to be insufferable depending on the outcome of the match tomorrow, cheers.
@@michaelmartin9447 Djoko is a beast he is the GOAT and everyone knows it now. His problem today is that HE already thinks that Alcaraz has real chances of being the next GOAT, he knows Alcaraz is much better at his age than he was at the same age. This thoughts are going to hit him during the match
This match will really be about Carlos's first serve, because it's not been consistent by any stretch. Despite no "measuring stick" for Djokovic, I don't think Carlos has been at his best all tournament. On the other hand, Djokovic has never been pushed and has only lost once in the first set (vs Popyrin). I would love to see Alcaraz win but objectively, I just don't see Novak letting up if Carlos has a poor start like he had against Daniil.
I think that too, he should have a strong start, and not let Novak take any chances to overcome him. I think it’s going to be tricky for Carlos this time. It will be a close match, hard to predict the winner. Both are beasts!
@@kingnole4237 I said that because Alcaraz, alongside Zverev, is my favorite player on tour. In my opinion, Novak wins this comfortably. I'm not taking the bait, I think fans should just appreciate and enjoy whoever they like.
That's your mistake, you can't see that Alcaraz with less experience and no experience on grass he beat Novak after losing 6-1 the first set, Novak was coming off a win in Australia and Paris also and still Alcaraz found a way to turn things around ! Alcaraz can lose the first set and will easily recover and win the next 3 !
@@gabrielagent20 I'm speaking in context of the matchup at the present. But I'll be more explicit, I think Carlos played at a respectably higher level last year compared to this year's run.
Alcaraz is not losing in five sets, the guy literally never lost a five setter, not even when he had no experience against a Novak with all the experiece in the world in five setters, Alcaraz will win, whether is in 3, 4 or 5 sets !
@@gabrielagent20 There is a first time for everything. It also depends on how we get to a 5th set. For instance, if Alcaraz has to peak in the 4th to get to a 5th he may not be able to maintain that level in the 5th.
Gill, more pressure on Alcaraz this year as a defending champion. Unlike last year where he was aiming for a calendar grand slam this year there is no pressure win or lose. He has 24 already so who cares, it’s dream that he is still playing and playing well and in the game.
People dismissing this, but it will play a huge part like when he was favored for 23 FO semis. Carlos also hasn’t been tested by a great grass court player either, I would argue musetti is better than anyone Carlos has played
Novak can't take 3 sets away from Alcaraz, the man is to good to lose 3 sets ! Perhaps Novak takes a set at most i see ! But this won't be a close final like last so don't get your hopes to high this time around !
@@creativestudio101 Gave him many chances. That fan that screamed out @ 5-4 40-30. Carlos using up all his challenges early in the tie breaker, etc. Funny, Alcaraz now has won BOTH tie breakers against Djokovic in Wimbledon finals. At the age of 21, before his prime.
@@scottmorissey8915So true! What a great accomplishment. Sadly, many will try to diminish it by saying Novak is too old or that he was injured. Surprisingly nobody was saying that when he beat Musetti in straights.
So Mr Gill ………..looks like your pre match analysis and prediction was Gross-ly off ………..😅…… congrats and Kudos to Alcaraz for an insane display of tennis prowess in all areas of the game, at the Wimbledon Final no less, and wrapping up in a smooth 2 hrs 27 mins, which could have been just around 2hrs had he not suddenly come down to being a 21 yr old human showing nerves on match point at 5-4 in the 3rd set. Leave that aside and Carlos was flying among the stars today, while Novak was totally down and off !!!!!!
U predicted Sinner for the French despite people calling u anti Alcaraz. Same here for Wimbledon. Sinner out, Alcaraz in a final, having a much thougher route. And here you tripple down on anti Alcaraz. Well, I have called Alcaraz. This year will be easy for Alcaraz. And no Novak is not injured. His tennis has been patchy. His super easy route to the final enabled him to get there. I will again go for the more talented tennis player, Alcaraz.
@@amandabrynn6853 The guy is absolutely right to think that way ! We expect Gil to acknowledge that Carlitos is the new king of any surface ! Alcaraz will dominate Novak !
@gabrielagent20 Settle down dude. Even Federer and Nadal were far ahead of the Grand Slam tally by the time Novak won his first. Alcaraz is injury prone and we don’t know how long his body will hold up with an ultra aggressive playing style. Nadal had many injuries in his career but his continuity of setbacks and bouncing back consistently is peerless. Alcaraz isn’t Nadal.
@HowMannyMore I know what you mean from Novak's point of view, but likewise, the guy on the other side of the court will also be eager to prove himself, considering the two losses last year.
Carlos was amazing in the Wimbledon final last year. I still feel Novak was deliberately given a time violation penalty at the wrong time. Middle of the 2nd set tie-breaker disrupting the entire momentum. He definitely deserved it and should've been penalised much before the tie breaker. But they chose the perfect time to do it. Not taking away anything from Carlos, he was amazing in that match. But if that disruption hadn't happened, probably he would've gone on to win the 2nd set and probably the match.
@@stevelily1763 it wasn't the wind factor. He was getting tired and was taking lot of time to recover going beyond the 25 second limit multiple times. He deserved the violation penalty but not in the middle of the time breaker. If I were the chair umpire, i would have told Novak that he was taking a lot of time and would get a penalty. At least warn the player considering it was the final of Wimbledon.
Also they didn't want to close roof even though it was windy day, day before roof was closed for women final . They know Novak hate wind . We saw also what happened to Zverev in Rg final . ATP boy Carlos...
@@ja-kl8rgmaybe learn to play in the wind then. It really wasn't a conspiracy against Nole, there was rain on the Saturday, a fact you conveniently forget.
@@AMINOMMA There was no rain in London on 15 of July 2023 , you can check this easy . On 16 of July weather and wind was exactly the same around 25 - 30 kmh , yet they didn't close roof . Also umpire and hecklers provoking Novak...
Hi @gill good preview again! But I notice that this time the Wimbledon main courts are far less greener than ever before.. and also the skidding and speeds seems way slower... is it done to suit Alcaraz????????
I wouldn't bet against anyone on Sunday. I know Alcaraz is the safest bet given the circumstances, but never count Novak out. If Novak comes out with all guns blazing - very much like what Roger did in 2019 even though he lost - and Carlos doesn't let himself lose focus which he usually does in certain moments, we are in for a treat.
@@DThGrantland Why would I delete it? I didn't claim or predict who was going to win. I just wished for a great match, just like every sincere tennis fan. Carlos played incredible tennis and Novak didn't. And, I am happy Carlos won. That's it.
the main thing about making predictions is not to overthink it. bookies set the total at 41, that means Alcaraz will take it. most likely in 4. I'm going to make another prediction - this is going to be Noel's last slam final.
agree. I think Alcaraz wins big in 3, and retires Nope, because None will realise with a fit Alcaraz, even Sinner, he has no real prospect of winning Wimbledon. He will only play if he really thinks he has a genuine chance of winning, just like Roger, and Rafa. Champtons are like that.
Tough or easy, he will do just that ! Alcaraz is the new dominator in men's tennis and will stop Djokovic from now on to win any other Slam therefore expect Novak to announce retirement coming next year ! There's no reason to continue if he can't beat the young guns especially Carlitos in major matches so why waste your energy ! 2025 is the final year for Novak, i call it right now !
alcaraz is undoubtedly great, but the level of competition in the current era of men’s tennis is very low. dropping a set against medvedev is fine, but he dropped sets against tommy paul, humbert, and went five against tiafoe. and now he’s not even the clear favorite against one of the worst versions of djokovic ever, at age 37 both carlos and djokovic were playing far better on the grass in 2023
One thing not mentioned much is the pressure of going for an all time record , in this case 25 Slams. Every time it's hyped up, the player never achieves it, like the Calendar Slam in the mens, or Serena and Court. In this case, it's under the radar, so hopefully Djokovic can do it.
Strangely, Novak's quest for 25 is actually almost not mentioned in many news articles, the attentions seems to be more on the fact that he had a recent knee operation and that he's about to equal Federer's 8 Wimbledons ... Of course Novak is well aware that his 25 will make him the first person to top Margaret Court's 24 which had been unreachable for like half a century ....
Hey Gil appreciate your in-depth approach but at least on final's weekend you could've ncluded the ladies and given us your take on Paolini & Krejcikova!
ok, here's another way to handicap this thing.. two fellas without any obvious weaknesses in their games, very adept to changing tactics mid-match, both proven winners at the highest level, including on the Central court. both are relatively fresh, no impactful injuries are being disclosed to the public, both seem to be playing with an eye on this final (effort and concentration wise) so far. that means there's only question that will decide the outcome. I don't remember if it was Rougha or Noel, who said it.. in any case, the question is who's prepared to suffer most? Noel is an artist extraordinaire when it comes to embellishing even the smallest ailments and playing a victim to the crowd, just to get his opponent off his flow, even for a moment. I do believe Alcaraz is ready for this. Noel is not.
Something about this knee injury has turned Djokers tactics to a 10/10. I keep hearing Djokovic hasn't played superb and has gotten an easy draw but he is ending points quickly and putting players away in 3 sets. He isn't the highlight maker that Alcaraz is but none the less will take points away.
😂😂 Alcaraz is more possible to get 2 sets in a row than Novak. Which means that Alcaraz is more possible to win in 4. Even in 5. Unless you mean that Novak will win in straight sets which is hilarious.
@@vindukur100 embarrassed? Are you serious? He's not a God. Even I predicted wrongly. I believed it would go over 40 games but Alcaraz was way too good for Djokovic. Gill is a RU-vidr not a magician.
How on earth any of these people couldn’t see that the emperor had no clothes. The over confidence was fantasist territory. Soft draw, no real opponents to test his level until he ran into Carlos and yet they were predicting Carlos would lose this. Henman just described this victory as an annihilation, as it truly was
@@stevo855 This was actually an annihilation if we remove our lense of respect for the legend! It seems like it is the end for Djoker if he doesn't rise in next 2 slams. Djoker's game relies on physical attributes similar to Rafa but in different dimension. Rafa relies on strength Djoker relies on stamina, the young guns will take you out with your fading strength. Federer had skills but his knees took him out. I can see the Big 3 era coming to a complete end by the end of this year with Rafa already out and Djoker failing to win against Sinner/Alcaraz.
@@chammo-dz5br And also motivation, hunger. I think he loves his kids and family and the life of an elite tennis player has no time for that. I think he really wanted Wimbledon and then maybe the US open...and that's that. I think Rafa and Nole want the olympycs, and then, maybe, US Open. I see them out by 2025. Sadly, but Tempus Fugit.
He won't be right this time unfortunately for Gill just like last year ! Perhaps next year he will chose Alcaraz pre-tournament so he can live peacefully that his pick is safe until the end !
Last year's final was very windy which in general adversely affects Djokovic's game much more than anyone else's. It doesn't look like it's going to be the case tomorrow so I'm going Djokovic, he cannot possibly serve and return worse than last year and he still took it to 5 sets.
In the untrained eyes most will pick Alcarez to win; however, from the trained eyes Djokovic will revenge this final in 4 … Djokovic tends to win more h2h the further it goes once he has learned the tactics of his opponents.
Yes you are right about the tactis in regards to Novak, one flaw however, this doesn't apply to Carlitos, he is a different animal and Novak will have no answers on Sunday and this final will be the moment when Novak realises that his time is up for good !
Alcaraz will win more amazing points,djokovic will win more important points I feel, this finals will be similar to rg 2022 qf and ao 2024 qf, where alcaraz became so ambitious and was making many unforced errors vs zverev and zverev had taken advantage of it, i feel alcaraz will lose first 2 sets because of going for too many drop shots and then he will win 3rd set, 4th set will go to tb, alcaraz will make things so complicated in that tb and will win amazing points but nole will win important points and will win 25th, this is my prediction.
@GillGross fun fact nobody is talking about 🙃 In 2021 Italians had two finals to cheer for in one day: Euro football finals vs England and Wimbledon finals Berrettini vs Djokovic. Now in 2024 there is the same situation for Spain Euro football finals vs England and Wimbledon finals Alcaraz vs Djokovic. I personally hope they will split two finals like Italians did in 2021 Win Euro and lose vs Djokovic 🤞
I must say it. Earring your description of the Cincinnati match made me go and watch the extended highlights and I was in complete awe the WHOLE time (26 min). I don’t know how a match can surpass that. Thank you for that. Loved the analysis and the passion but I was so disappointed with your pick, really wanted you to go with Carlos as if it decides the outcome 😅. But really, it feels like your analysis should have led you to pick Carlos but your guts didn’t let you do that for some reason.
Sounds crazy but I think the result of the match is on Alcaraz’s racket. But Alcaraz needs to deliver a 9/10 performance in order to get it done - a level he’s only achieved in spots against Paul, Humbert and Meddy. What a final!
One thing I don't hear very much, which is true and that's the neither nole or alcaraz played very well in the final last year. They both had an off day. I expect the standard to be much better this year.
Logically Alcaraz makes more sense as a prediction (mainly due to a better physical shape) but I have a feeling that Djokovic is going to win this because he wants it more and because he likes the surface more. Ps: Last year Djokovic played a fairly poor match in the final here (second and third set, not much in the fifth) otherwise it would have probably won it comfortably.
I’m not sure about this one. I didn’t even think Djokovic was going to play Wimbledon three weeks ago, and then he did. I didn’t think he would make it to the second week, and then he did. I wasn’t sure about him making it to the finals, and he did. He has exceeded all my expectations being 37 and coming back from a meniscus surgery 25 days ago, but I’m not sure he has all the movement necessary to play Alcaraz who is a physical beast in 5th sets. However, Carlos hasn’t played his best this year either, and I don’t know who the last person was to beat Novak twice in a row in a major, and I’m not sure if Alcaraz has it in him yet to defend a grand slam, and win two back-to-back, but he’s back in a final, and he’s yet to lose one. Djokovic came close last year, but the wind threw him off. This year, wind is predicted at 8-10kph, which I think is significantly less than 2023, and I think Novak has learned a lot about Carlos’ game since that encounter. I would be surprised if he makes the same mistakes. I think Alcaraz has to make Djokovic run a lot to have a better chance. Heart says Djokovic; mind says Alcaraz. I think the fact that the odds favor Carlitos and that most people are picking him, is good, because I think so far in their matchup, the winner has been the opposite to the odds. So, I’m hoping this is the case tomorrow.
I don't know how you get much more from a tennis analyst than you get from Gil. He rarely says something that isn't at least worth a pause to think about. If this match turns out to be based on "brawn," then it'll belong to Carlos, it seems fair to say, but if it turns out to be based on "tennis IQ" and experience, it might well go to Novak. I want Novak to have this one last moment as belonging to him above the rest because he stands at the very peak of the tennis world after sometimes fighting tooth and nail with it, and if anyone deserves such a lasting and unforgotten "moment," Novak does, so much so that he'll be remembered for having climbed Mt. Everest one last time and will thus forever stand there alone.
I'm not sure if Tennis IQ matters that much anymore since coaches are basically doing the thinking for the players now. Alcaraz's coach is a former pro player. ATP making rtrded decisions as usual
Agree with your prediction. Novak is going to be motivated in multiple ways, the top two being that he's the betting underdog and also will want to avenge his finals loss last year, where he was an easy shot away from a 2-0 set lead.
Usually I know who you predict after you explained the players' paths to victory. Today I wasn't sure and what do you know? You don't know yourself :D let's hope for an epic ❤
One thing is for sure, its gonna be a classic. I love Alcaraz, but this time I'll be pulling for Djokovic. He put it all on the line to take part in this Wimbledon, and I hope it pays off.
I totally agree with you, I hope both of the player doesn’t get injured, that’s the most important thing, I’m not a nole fan but I never wish him or any other player get hurt, last year at the Cincinnati final nole was suffering from heat exhaustion, as much I wanted carlos to win but I was afraid for nole health, it just an sport it is not the end of the world , if they win or loose
@@vikasshah1742 mmm .. Gill is a closet Novak fan, you can tell with the way he puts this match above all the history making matches Nadal and Federer had created in the past ... Tennis historians will know that it was Nadal's challenge of Federer's dominance that got the world's attention and brought tennis to a new golden age before Novak became a factor. Personally I think Novak is a good person with good intentions, but I know that we all owe it to Nadal and Federer for making tennis an epic drama during the 2000s like how Seles challengedGraf and Navra rivalling Evert ... I think Novak often gets misunderstood as arrogant as he's often saying things which are not in the mainstream. He also have a natural villain face that invites dislikes but thats the face he's born with, there are actually people unfortunately born with a face that projects bad vibes, he's a victim of that I think. We should try to not judge a book by its cover and understand that Novak is actually a good person with good intentions whether we are a Nadal or Federer fan ....
Beautiful analysis always but unfortunately wrong predictions most of the time..Djoker coming back from injury , cupcake draw, Mickey Mouse competition till final, prediction should Have been straightforward alcaraz in 4..alcaraz surprised with his extra gear and level and got it done in 3..he is the alpha male in tennis right now Gill keep up the good work but be bold in predictions ..
I agree Gill, one of the most difficult matches to predict, ever. If Djokovic wants to win he'll need to bring that well balanced continuity throughout the whole final. Alcaraz will be the one with highest highs and lowest lows. I'm going Djokovic in 5, but I would love it if your prediction is the one. You had many good guesses this Wimbledon so here's to another one 😅
It's astonishing that a year later Novak Djokovic is still able to reach a final of a slam. The competition need to watch and learn! Fascinating match up. I think Novak will be even more motivated than last year, and agree that Nole doesnt dip as much as Alcaraz. But over 5 sets if alcaraz goes into god mode that will be tough. It seems like commentary teams are now shifting to saying AlcaraTH!
Are you ready for THE generational changeover? Djokovic gives his ALL to show he's still here, at the ripe age of 37, ready to hold that most coveted trophy for the 8'th time. To be THE Tennis Supernova the world will never forget. Djokovic is here and prepared, to face and conquer the young barbarians at the gate. And then there's Alcaraz: "Yes I did it last year, it was unbelievable even for me - remember my cramp at Roland Garros last year...But you know what, IF I can do it again here at Wimbledon, against the reigning Monarch for more than a decade, I'll believe it. And maybe you'll believe it too." The Change of Guard. Or not.
Here is the way I conducted my analysis. As a psychologist, it is how I train people. In this case, I ask, my self to list the top 5 reasons why Alcaraz is likely yo win. The top 5, of why he is likely to lose. I do the same for Novak. What else.. I ask, what is Alcaraz performance in finals.. 3 0 going into this. Novak las lost a few in recent years, specifically to Medvedev, Rafa, Alcaraz.. This was a big factor for me. Alcaraz does not know what it is to lose in a slam final. No scar tissue, compared to Novak. 2024 form.. Novak not at the races, has not played even 1 excellent match. Alcaraz many. Fear factor Novak fears Alcaraz. This explains why Novak was playing serve/volley, and trying to avoid the long rallies, that Alcaraz will dominate. Battle hardened. Again, Alcaraz had to play some though matches, against quality grass court players. Novak with his draw did not, and was not helped by a bye, in the quarter, and in meeting person who has scare tissue from Novak in the semi, who also does not believe in himself. Oh,ya.. Alcaraz just won the French and is super confident, backed by achievement. This situation is similar to Roger and Novak in 2014 and 2015. Roger should have won in 2014, but was deservedly beaten by Novak who executed a perfect game plan in 2015, but who also got lucky against Roger in 2015 US open final. The Novak back then was 27/28, at his peak. He is no longer at his peak, but lucky that Alcaraz is not either. Alcaraz in 4 years time will be mighty, so long as Sinner and a couple of others push him. Novak will never beat Alcaraz on grass. Roger could always win those service games in 50 secs. Novak does not have that capability. His age is showing. And with Alcaraz and Sinner, and even Medvedev, he now has quality opposition. Novak knows this.. Which put him under more pressure right at the start, from which he crumbled. Ya, I knew this would be a blow out. Some people simply do not want to see what is right in from to them. Alcaraz has 4 slams at 21.. Far more talented than Novak.. Needs more work on his serve., and has yet to develop his style. Had Sinner made the final, Alcaraz would still have won. The only other weakness that I can spot, is that he gets rooted to the ground a bit, and not quick enough to move his feet. He is good when moving.
It’s absurd to bet against Djokovic. You nailed it “track record “. How many times does someone have to wow us and defy what we think is possible? It’s not like he’s done it once, twice, thrice. Really how can anyone bet against him with a clear mind? Alcaraz is awesome no doubt, but he’s not even a 37 year old Djokovic. Nole mind, will and spirit is out of this world. I get it everyone is quick to want the next best thing, but Djoker ain’t done. Gill, you chose right!
Gill is my most trusted tennis guru- love the show and yes this is going to be a great match. In 2024 Joker has been mortal, everyone has seen this side of him which is in fact a new side of him. I think he has struggled physically with his cardio all season (match play and age/injs). Forecast isn't hot but its going to sunny and low mid 70's, something to account for. You could visibly see him struggling against Fearnley and if Popyrin wins the 4th set tiebreaker that match could have gone down a different path. Also to note Lore made him work hard yesterday even in a straight set loss (3+ hr match). I think its imperative Joker comes out and wins set 1 something he's done in every single match throughout the fortnight and its also been a issue for Alcaraz, winning set 1 (vs Paul and vs Tiafoe). In the end you can visibly see Joker having cardio issues on extended rallies and as stated the Wimbledon court speed of 2024 is not what it was in 1994. I think its a close match but I see Alcaraz winning behind Joker eventually not having the legs and wind to sustain an extended match. I predict Joker wins set 1 and finds a way to fight to win a 2nd set somewhere in this match, probably in set 3 or set 4. I've got Alcaraz in 5.
Amazing analysis as always Gill. Really tough match to lock a prediction in. Carlos, in my mind, has the edge, but he can also be more erratic when he is not feeling the ball. So I guess the match depends more on how both players feel tomorrow when they wake up than anything else. Let’s enjoy another great match of tennis while Novak is still around 🎾
Gill I love your analysis and prediction. I just wonder if Djoker has enough fitness for Alcaraz. I see Carlos moving fast as can be and all his opponents are saying this. I would like Novak for the win if he had more quality matches. I think it’ll go five, but I’m not sure if Novak has the upper level yet to hang with Carlos. Also Novak has been getting into battles on his serve when a player can return his serve. I think that could be the match breaker is if Novak has to battle like last year on his serve.
Two things to consider here: 1. Revenge factor for last year. Novak has always, and especially over the last couple of years come up with a big game when playing someone who beat him previously. 2. Will something happen to put Nole into his "I'm being disrespected" mode? Again, if he's mad at himself it doesn't work; he needs an external focus for this. When he finds it, he's unstoppable.
Stephen from the Slice said that Novak is intentionally being a jerk to the crowd this year just to light a fire under his feet and to use that as fuel lol.
The tennis Gods have blessed us? This is the final the tennis establishment wanted, or does anyone think the cakewalk draw for Djokovic was total happenstance?
I think it should be analyzed more than anything who will break the other's serve. Djokovic has consistency, but Alcaraz is in his. best moment, he has speed and a great right hand. And he had much more complicated rivals to beat.
Well I predicted Alcaraz in 4 on the grounds that Djokovic hadn't faced a single top ten and the highest ranked player was a declining (lately) Rune. Still I thought Djokovic would have snatched one, out of pride. Well I was wrong (but he did save 3 championship points) 😂.
Navratilova said the same. When you know your chances are running out, you get more tight. Novak got tight when he got broken to go into a tiebreak on Friday. 2-3% less clutch is all it takes.
I"m trying to believe in my guy Djokovic but if he won't bring his absolute A game he's gonna lose. Alcaraz is super athletic at the moment and have all the skills (both defensively and offensively) and confidence. Plus ZERO pressure compared to Djokovic for whom it always can be 1 last chance for a major title.
@@nixiontm Zero pressure compared to Djokovic. Obviously there's always some pressure at this stage but, honestly, it's almost all on Djokovic this time. He has to prove he can beat Alcaraz in Wimbledon final - Alcaraz proved he can beat Djoker in his kingdom last year. Nothing to prove this time, really: just play and beat him another time. There's additional pressure on Djoker that he must have a good start and win the first set. Alcaraz knows he can trail 1:2, maybe even 0:2 in sets - and still come back and win this final. Djokovic is rather far from such confidence and belief. And Alcaraz knows it and I expect him to have a very aggressive start tomorrow, to try to steal this first set and shake Novak's confidence and belief quickly.
@@michaelmartin9447 Murray is a completely bad comparision, Novak beat him in their 1st grand slam final in 2011 in Australia. And they met at Wimbledon only 1 time, when Novak was exhausted after semis against Delpo. "If Novak was far from belief and confidence during 2019 Wimbledon, he’s definitely not tentative in this one. You’re going to be eating your words." Where is that from? Why you mention 2019 final? I've never mentioned it here, furthermore, if I did, I'd say if somebody wins 3 tie-breaks against Roger in Wimbledon final, with ZERO unforced errors in those tie-breaks, the guy must be confident as anyone can be. Where I'll be eating my own words? Can you explain to me any logic in your words? And emoticons don't do that, they're not arguments, they're from the very low, childish level of conversation. And I'm adult, and even more developed kids don't need to use emoticons when argue with somebody.
The"problem" with Alcaraz, for both him and his opponents, is the fact that he is a living chaos of tennis. The guy has no plan ans tactics and that is very hard to play for him but also very hard to play against, you cant prepare against chaos. The fact that Alacarz can somewhat control that chaos is why he is so hard to beat, but on the other hand Djokovic is like a best calibrated machine that knows exactly what he is doing. If you asked me at this point of their careers who has a higher peak game, its probably Alacaraz. On the other hand Novak can play his peak game for a much longer period of time on the court, Alacarz has had many lows during this Wimbledon and its expected in the final that he has at least 1 or 2 sets where Novaks 80-90% will be enough to win them. I also know that there wilk be at least 1-2 sets where Alcaraz will peak his game and will be at 120%. Feels like all in all we will have 2 lower level sets from Alcaraz and 2 incredible Alcaraz sets and 1 set that will be the decider where both players will be at around 90%. Incredible contrast of styles, robotic % game vs chaotic mix of power and talent.
Your analysis is incredible, perfect prediction, I feel alcaraz will play first 2 sets so horribly and will win 3rd set and Djokovic will win 4th set tb, alcaraz will lose points on drop shots in 4th set tb.
MANY young players have an equal gift and talent that Alcaraz has. Alcaraz has certainly been very Fortunate for His Talent to be Praised... while Other, equally Talented young players... have no such luck.
@@stevelily1763 Only gift and talent can win you at max one grand slam and not 3. Even 1 might be too difficult, ask Nick Kyrgious maybe? Such a salty comment ! Well they call Andy Murray as Sir for winning three and being No.1 during big 3 era. Alcaraz has been more consistent at much younger age and has shown he can beat Novak at BIG stage. No use of gifts / talents or xyz advantages if you can't translate them into success, which Alcaraz has done !
@@chammo-dz5br "Salty" comment!??? Really?!! By merely stating that there are MANY other Super Talents who do Not get the Extraordinary Support...that Alcaraz gets!? YOU O b v i o u s l y do Not Read Your own comments! 🪞 🪞 🪞
Nice analysis Gill. The way I saw it was Novak can only win in 4. He's not winning in straight sets nor in 5. Alcaraz could win in 3, 4 or 5. Nole had a narrow path to victory whereas Alcaraz had many. I also believed Alcaraz peak level is simply better than Djokovic, especially post surgery. In fact I said to the wife earlier today, that my heart wants me to hedge my bets and pick Djokovic, but my brain was saying Alcaraz can do it in straight sets. That's exactly what happened.
I think Alcaraz will win. He should focus on making Djokovic run as much as possible. Alcaraz's youth and gas tank will be his main advantage to meniscus-less Djokovic.
@@raghumanda2tanush496 Nah, Alcaraz won last year and shouldn't care about the crowd anymore. Djokovic had more unforced errors yesterday than Musetti did. So stamina will be key. I don't think Alcaraz will try to be flashy. Patience will be key. Rope-a-dope the Djokovic.
@@NashTV8Musetti's slices were causing a concern for Djocovic. But Musetti couldn't not able to capitalise. From what I have seen in Semis, I don't see Djokovic winning this Final. Djokovic is not in his prime nor he is peaking for the final. But Alcaraz has everything on his side. If Musetti could break Djokovic serve, Alcaraz will break is badly. Alcaraz in 4.
@@OmgaduGuduru Alcaraz showed a really bad game in almost all of his games this wimbledon. For a set or two he isnt Alcaraz. So if he can be broken by his previous opponents he can be broken by Đoković. But this doesn't really matter. It's the finals that matter the most. One match. One bad day and you are out. So we shall see who has a better day on Sunday. I see it going either way. May the best man on Sunday win.
Novak does not play his best in windy conditions. He lost to Carlos in windy conditions last year. He lost a U.S Open final to Murray in windy conditions. In low/no-wind conditions, his precision-based game excels.
Great analysis Gil, as always. I just had a question in the 22:57 mark you mentioned Djokovic doesn’t lead 24-3 when they start the match and I was trying to figure out what you meant by those numbers. 24 grand slam final wins versus “3 losses”? But he lost 12 gram slam finals to date. Then I thought 3 losses in Wimbledon finals and he’s only lost 2 (in 2013 to Andy Murray and 2023 to Alcaraz). Am I missing something? Thanks again for your great insights and in-depth analysis!
I really think , the small margins and playing better the decisive points will decide the outcome of the game.I still remember last year final that tiebreaker early in , when novak was one point from taking a two sets to-none lead over Carlos And then there was that missed volley on break point early in the fifth set with all the momentum , he had his chances. I think he could have closed out the game right there , so for me the serve and returns dynamic , serve plus one and using his serve aggressively take the ball early to control the points , selecting the right spot when coming to the net are keys to win. I know Novak can but physically Carlos has an advantage here and also with long rallies , I also think Novak should win this in 4 if it goes to a fifth it will be dangerous for him . Anyways I hope we have a great match this sunday and gill prediction comes true, 😅
