Probabilistic climate projections in the age of CMIP6

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A/Prof Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls and Jared Lewis, 11 November 2020.
Climate projections are a key part of societal, infrastructure and policy planning. These climate projections are made by climate models and come in a variety of forms. In this seminar, we focus on so-called probabilistic climate projections of global-mean temperatures, which provide not only a best-estimate of future climate but also its uncertainty. We begin by discussing the scenarios which are currently being run by the world’s most powerful climate models (Earth System Models, ESMs) and our role in creating the greenhouse gas concentration timeseries used in these scenarios. Then we examine available results from models participating in the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), using the output from a new tool we have developed. We discuss how these CMIP6 results differ from probabilistic projections and explain how we make probabilistic projections for global- annual-mean quantities using our reduced complexity climate model, MAGICC7. Finally, we present a newly available tool which allows users to visualise these projections and examine how sensitive they are to our understanding of the climate system.

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20 окт 2024

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Комментарии : 11

@niellanblackthorn581 3 года назад

Thanks for uploading this interesting kind of stuff on RU-vid.

@greystash998 3 года назад

is All the co2 from the Methane that will turn into co2 included,there is a lot af co2 that will come from the methane that has gone from 800 to 1900 parts in the atmosphere.

@reinerwilhelms-tricarico344 2 года назад

The contribution of CH4 becoming CO2 accounts only for a very small part of CO2: Some or most of the Methane will decompose over time, usually will simply burn in one way or another with oxygen, and turn into CO2 and water. This makes a small contribution to increase CO2. However, it is a much stronger greenhouse gas in the original form of CH4. It's important to consider the units of the concentration of the various green house gases. CO2 concentration is measured in ppm - parts per million, which is now more than 400 ppm. It means that in 1 million molecules of air, 400 or more are CO2 molecules. On the other hand, CH4 is usually measured in parts per billion. So the 800 to 1900 ppb means that among 1 billion (1000 million) air molecules are 0.8 to 1.9 molecules of CH4.

@brucefrykman8295 Год назад

1900 parts per 2000? per 20,000? per 200,000? per 2,000,000? per 20,000,000? per 200,000,0000? (CH4 + 2 O3 -> CO2 + 2 H2O) Hint that 1900 parts per billion for CH4 or 1.9 parts per million (ie nothing,- idiot) Major source of Methane emissions - wetlands, holy crap let's sue the EPA for preserving them

@reinerwilhelms-tricarico344 2 года назад

Still beats me why so much drama is made about N2O (nitrus oxide). It barely matters as a green house gas (see your figure at 12:20) compared to CO2 but also matters much less than CH4, and yet many governments (following top-down WEF doctrines) are rushing now in lockstep towards implementation of drastic policies to reduce N2O by basically bankrupting farmers on an unprecedented scale. There is already a big - and very much justified - backlash against this idiocy.

@brucefrykman8295 Год назад

Shut up and eat your cockroaches - the -planet- elites feels threatened! Have you any idea what it costs to rev up all the Grumman Gulfstream G700s executive jets to wing off to the next climate conference? (382 gallons of jet fuel per hour). Luckily the saps who pay for all this BS (taxpayers) pick up the tab for you as well as the Lobster Bisque, Caviar and Dom Perignon to wash it all down with - Next climate conference in Monte Carlo - wheee. Dat climate sh!t shore taste gud.

@brucefrykman8295 Год назад

What the hell is CMIP6? Another Windows release?