Pros and cons of public opinion polls - Jason Robert Jaffe

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How do public opinion polls work? And, more importantly, are they accurate? Jason Robert Jaffe reveals the complexities and biases of polls and provides tips on how to think about polls as we make everyday decisions.
Lesson by Jason Robert Jaffe, animation by Flaming Medusa Studios.

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16 май 2013

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Комментарии : 109

@TEDEd 11 лет назад

Hi Conor. Thx for the input! TED-Ed vids are based on real lessons delivered by real teachers throughout the world. All lessons/educators are discovered via an open nomination system on the TED-Ed website. This lesson was nominated by an American History teacher. We'd love to help visualize lessons that relate to all regions/nations around the world, but in year one of TED-Ed we haven't seen a ton of of nominations to that regard. Can you all help us change that? Nom. link at end of every vid!

@emilyc3733 6 лет назад

I hate when interest groups share polls on social media. They do not give us accurate information as the sample will be biased.

@mayaayam9361 11 лет назад

His explanation was very good. Deserves a like =)

@wonreebaemssap 11 лет назад

You folks have an excellent animator.

@defydog 11 лет назад

Compared with the follow up question involving criminal activity, it does seem like a less suggestive question, but I do agree that it is indeed a leading question in itself.

@JintxDJ 11 лет назад

Why do you always have such amazing videos (both in animation and structure) and then too often it seems like the sound was recorded with a potato? :D

@Feqo20 11 лет назад

I love these videos

@JIEUN84 Год назад

I've vaguely thought that public opinion polls seem unreliable, but I never knew the reason. Now I understand what makes public opinion polls imperfect and why we still use them.

@lindadiehl9569 2 года назад

This video really helped me understand political public opinion polls, but I still want to know what the plus or minus after the R or D. Is that confidence level or accuracy level or what? I'll keep looking....

@littleboylost1o1 11 лет назад

Totally going to use this for a class on sampling and bias at school. thx!

@natertotGD 2 года назад

How did it go

@katherineknapp4370 5 месяцев назад

Good points

@YankeeDoodleDandy 11 лет назад

I can recall watching a lecture a few days ago and I didn't even think about my country not being represented until just now. It's silly but have at it.

@MrConorWB 11 лет назад

My comment was not an attack on America. I was just giving advice for TED-ED. I love the videos and watch all of them. have learnt a lot from them. I was just giving them an idea on how to appeal to more people so more people can watch and learn from their videos. Sorry if I caused offence to anyone.

@boboschwabo Год назад

SiouxValley getting it done 🔥 good video

@lowrider276 8 лет назад

I knew I shouldn't have scrolled down but I did it anyway. People were mad at this video because the examples were American? Of course the examples were American. The video was made by an American and produced by an American company. If the video was made by a British person for a British company the examples would probably be British. Not that it matters because you didn't need to be American to understand the examples, they were there simply to illustrate the point. If some other country was mentioned and Americans started complaining about how they couldn't relate to the video I highly doubt you'd be sympathetic towards them.

@cassandrastarrs4048 4 года назад

This video is part of my American Government class online.

@bunnyfood3646 3 года назад

@@cassandrastarrs4048 same

@Caleb18greatjob 3 года назад

Literall have to write a 5 page paper on this. CLUTCH

@Tupster 11 лет назад

Pollsters are smart enough that they have a model of how many people say they are going to vote versus how many actually vote, so this question still has utility.

@SCiMoDoomerX 11 лет назад

"What is your opinion? -Yes, -No" Go home poll, you're drunk.

@NocnikBezTajemnic 11 лет назад

I was waiting for the Portal Potato joke.

@Sasataf 11 лет назад

This video is true for all opinion polls. Just because they used American examples, doesn't mean that this video will only be relevant to America or Americans.

@TIMIMPALA420 11 лет назад

Lol the Guy with the cane in the sample people

@Omnilatent 11 лет назад

"Are you going to vote?" is a "social desirable"-question. Better is something like "Some people are going to vote, some people are not. Are you going to vote?" or something like that.

@MrConorWB 11 лет назад

I know that, but if they used America and just one other country then that's fine. I have nothing against America. All I meant by my comment was that people appeal to something more when it is universal or relates to them. Lots of the animations have been on America. Such as the good leaders one. They are all very informative and I love watching them. I love TED-ED videos. It was meant to be advice but with the amount of likes it seems like a popular opinion. Maybe they should do a poll on it.

@UsernameNULL755 11 лет назад

awesome, but the sound is too quiet

@liquidminds 11 лет назад

There is a fourth problem: People not knowing enough about the issue. I've seen polls where people voted for the more expensive solution, because they just couldn't see that the proposed alternative was a lot cheaper. They stuck with what they know, out of fear that change might bring something worse. People are not always the best decision-makers. Especially when it comes to details.

@DaBoff99 11 лет назад

"Would you vote for candidate Smith?" is a leading or suggestive question. It shouldn't be used for a poll. "Are you going to vote?" And "Which candidate are you going to vote for?" would be much more useful.

@joaquinbadillo6553 6 лет назад

El otro día

@Icariusnatarius 11 лет назад

The polling techniques are quite general, and the case with the presidential election is generally used as a warning example in the other countries as well. I don't see your point at all. Arbitrarily putting the situation to be in Serbia, would have given this video more authenticity?

@Alex_White2010 2 года назад

0:22 why did he say "for for mayor"

@Targe0 11 лет назад

I have to agree with you I am Australian, so at first I found them interesting, but now after so many of them focusing on America (and a large amount of them being about the political environment in some way) it starts to get tiresome.

@shmooveyea 11 лет назад

This is very relative to what just happened in the B.C. provincial election. Some are even going as far to say the public opinion polls lost the entire election for the NDP.

@TopGHippie 3 года назад

Exactly what's wrong with 2020 election opinion polls

@lynettetalley3829 6 месяцев назад

you have to remember that the responses are just a their thought and everybody has one.

@Jonyrijo 11 лет назад

conhecemo-nos? ou é só por sermos portugueses?

@defydog 11 лет назад

Opinion polls are something that are utilized by a wide variety of democratic western societies, and the lesson explained statistical principles in an easy to understand and straight forward way. I think what Connor was getting at, was that having a state called Idaho that enjoys the potato as its official food is something that most other people from Western democracies cannot relate too, and thus narrows the audience. The content is excellent, but the examples are often culturally biased.

@nikolaskatsenis8417 Год назад

Just like how indiana is associated with corn 🌽 lol

@shmooveyea 11 лет назад

Are you going to vote is often the very first question, the problem is most people say yes, yet voter turn out ends up under 50%

@Omnilatent 11 лет назад

Of course your sampling method has to be reliable and valid. But even if it is, you will get such an outcome if you don't ask in a proper way.

@kingoflifetree 8 лет назад

school

@pollograssopollo 11 лет назад

just use metric system

@pixelsafoison 11 лет назад

You're forgetting about people who hate polls and just purposefully give you the opposite answer - I can't possibly be the only one that does that when polled for commercial (or electoral - same crap) stuff ... right? Knowledge is power ...

@Jonyrijo 11 лет назад

that is the 3rd problem covered in the video

@fish3977 11 лет назад

Why just USA? Why not international?

@realSimoneCherie 4 месяца назад

Not only are samples biased, they’re completed by people who are incredibly thoughtful… guess what a small % of voters fall in that category

@Sheluvseemo 3 года назад

I was the thousandth like!

@nigelmckee3058 11 лет назад

i think they should give us identification codes unique to us, a one-time redeemable vote on each issue - we can freepost, use on the internet, text etc etc., and actually give the whole country a say, so we can directly give opinions - rather than vote for politicians who then make all the decisions for us - there's no need, and it's un-democratic. In such an interconnected world, it's actually possible for the first time...

@Omnilatent 11 лет назад

Here's the explanation why Truman won: The people who did the polls used telephone surveys only. That's general not a problem but back in 1948, only upper class people had telephones who mostly voted for Dewey. Thus, the sample was non-representative and bad. Today's options of doing polls are more sophisticated - question is, if people who create the poll will do it properly.

@YankeeDoodleDandy 11 лет назад

You can't relate because they picked US examples? How about 1 of the >140 people who thumbed up this comment change it yourself if you're so concerned about which countries are referenced. Oh that's right, the grand majority of these TED talks are made in America by Americans. Amazes me how people could care about something so trivial.

@curlyhead360 11 лет назад

How many times did this video say America?

@meepishi 11 лет назад

( made in the video )

@Omnilatent 11 лет назад

Envy? It's not about envy. The problem is voting being social desirable. If someone unknown to you asks you whether you voted, you are likely to say you did.

@MrConorWB 11 лет назад

These videos need to start being more universal rather than just on America. I like America but the rest of the world cannot relate to something and it is narrowing the audience.

@Icariusnatarius 11 лет назад

There isn't world outside America that Americans should know about? This channel seems to be more about collective action, learning, knowledge, and open-mindedness not about nationalism, bias, dogma, and close-mindedness.

@Jonyrijo 11 лет назад

what? redeemable vote? freepost, use on internet? I don't understand

@Omnilatent 11 лет назад

Also - state vegetables... are you kidding me?!

@googolplexbyte 11 лет назад

America! Land of the opinion poll. It was totally a coy reference to what happens if your poll is too narrow and only talks about America.

@dwakeling1 11 лет назад

4 times

@MrConorWB 11 лет назад

You live in America so like the American models. However there are a larger audience who would like to see other videos from around the world. I am sure TED would rather be worldwide rather than in just one country. That may have been the biggest in America, other countries will have had other shock opinion polls individual to their country. Is it ridiculous to express your opinion and over 140 others who watched the video?

@MrConorWB 11 лет назад

If you read the comment properly you would see it is advice for TED-ED. They are narrowing their audience and I want them to have a larger audience. I don't have the time to make videos as good as these. However they would have more views if it was a universal example. For example the great leaders one they made. It was a good video but all abut American great leaders. This did not relate to anyone outside of America so there was no connection. A video should connect to all to be good.

@ad206 6 лет назад

Polls don't predict.

@dontspikemydrink9382 3 года назад

why not

@ad206 3 года назад

@@dontspikemydrink9382 Because they are snapshots in time and if we're talking about elections, there's a difference between answering "who do you support between these two candidates?" and going out to vote. You have to factor in people who haven't made a decision but answer the poll anyway. 2016 had huge amounts of people who were unsure. They broke for Trump in the final days before the election. How motivated are they to go out and vote? If I said on the poll that I support Biden but I don't care that much vs someone who really loves Trump, I won't vote, but they definitely will. A poll where we're gauging support doesn't equal the same amount of votes come election time. That's why polls don't predict. They just show a snapshot of support at one point in time.

@MrConorWB 11 лет назад

I just think it would be nice to appeal to a wider audience so that they can have more views. Not everyone likes American examples. I don't hate them, I would just refer others from time to time. Like the Roman TED-ED video that came up recently; four sisters in ancient Rome. That was a great vid and got 26,000 views. This gto 12,000 not because it is bad but because it did not appeal to a large amount of people like the Rome one.

@mbd8531 11 лет назад

“What if there’s no such thing as public opinion, because every thinking person has opinions that are uniquely his own? What if what we call public opinion, was just a manufactured narrative that makes it easier to convince people that if their views are different, then there’s something wrong with that, or there’s something wrong with them?” Andrew Napolitano

@Jonyrijo 11 лет назад

in a lot of countries they don't actually, mostly the less developed ones and the less democratic ones.

@Barillen1 11 лет назад

Is potatoe a vegetable?

@Omnilatent 11 лет назад

But you alone are not representative. I can assure you that in a representative 1100 people sample ~75% will say "yes" although voter turnout was only 59%.

@chriszablocki2460 2 года назад

Raise your hand if you prefer things when panda is not expressing.

@chriszablocki2460 2 года назад

Panda raised his hand. ✋

@3002321542 11 лет назад

Do public opinion polls not exist in your country?

@aviation_nut 11 лет назад

You'd have to figure how many people hate opinion polls so much that they'd give such inaccurate answers, though... of course, how would one measure that demographic without using opinion polls? :)

@tarzoon1773 8 лет назад

في حقيقة الأمر سبر أراء عملية استطلاعية لصورة جمهور نحو الموضوع المثير بطريقة موضوعبة ولابد من تحليل أراءهم وخاتصة النفسية منها لأنها تعكس جانب اللاشعوري للجمهور بهذا تعرف الراي العام للجمهور اما مع ام ضد ام غبر مهتم ....... اجابيا ام سلبيا ....

@Jonyrijo 11 лет назад

yep, polls don't really help politicians pass legislation that the majority of the population will support, it helps them know what to say in public to get them elected and then pass whatever legislation they see fit; cause almost none checks what legislation their representatives effectively support, most people only base their votes on what they see and hear the politicians act and say, on media covered public appearances, especially on the higher levels of governance, like congress/presidency

@Targe0 11 лет назад

Yes, it is a Root Vegetable

@toyotaprius79 11 лет назад

Oh dear...

@Blukerbeh 11 лет назад

"America" Once. "Americans" Once.

@MrConorWB 11 лет назад

That's down to opinion and judging by the likes, mine is more popular.

@samfields3319 11 лет назад

Seems like most TED-Eds are universal. And this one is about public polls, not America. USA is just an example. Pretty bad ass that my world history teacher or my "Amurica" history teacher could get a lesson animated. Wish everybody would chill out acting like a youtube video is some mega injustice on their mother land, or that mentioning a specific place makes something useless. But I'm all for the metric system though!

@Candela415 11 лет назад

Manufactured Consent

@woodfur00 11 лет назад

Everyone chill the hell out. Just because America was used as a primary example in this video does not make the video all about America. Sure, it clearly focuses on it, but most of the stuff it talks about applies everywhere, or at the very least isn't exclusive to America.

@facepalm5134 11 лет назад

I like potatoes

@Jonyrijo 11 лет назад

that sounds great, but if one is to consider your opinion then one shouldn't consider your opinion. lol

@DKnarugioh93 11 лет назад

representative democracy, is democratic and better. Your idea would just induce chaos. put it this way, if we made a vote for every new tax, and a vote for every new spending cut, America, would be like California! Representatives are accountable, unlike the ever flipflopping citizen, who can change his mind, without anyone giving a damn. Representatives, makes decisions after being sought out by various interest groups, and have to relate all measures, with the reality they are in.