Putin may have already lost support of the security force | Mark Galeotti 

How does Ukraine negotiate with a country that has a long history of not honoring past negotiations?

Russian sheep do what they're told even if it's dying in a ditch

The big problem with a referendum in Crimea would be that it would reward Russia for the huge crime that was the deportation of the Crimea Tatars. The war criminal in the Kremlin is pointing at centuries of history. Thus this much too close in the past to be forgotten / accepted. Mark Galeotti's statements are always impressive. My main criticism is that he looks at the military (and a bit at the mood in the population) only. We are looking at Russia's economical collapse (much faster and much worse than the military changes). There will not be a long war.

Actually there are two wars going on: in the military arena and the economic one. While Ukraine's economy is down 40%, it is to note that Russia is hurting too. The value of the ruble hit a low of 1 US dollar for 100 Rubles. Although Putin has requested that India and China pay for oil in rubles, these major supporters of Russia's aggression have refused. Hold on to your Monopoly: the paper money used in this game will soon be worth more than the ruble.

Liberation of Crimea is absolutely essential - as long as Russia controls Crimea, Ukraine will never be secure. Making any sort of deal on Crimea would spell eventual doom for Ukraine, and given how vulnerable occupied Crimea is, it would be utterly insane to give Putin any concessions. It would embolden him to press on with the war indefinitely.

A referendum in Crimea is not an option, as Putin relocated a significant number of Russians to the peninsula. Hence, the result would be different from a fair referendum in 2014 and as such not eligible.

It's worth remembering that NATO wouldn't even *think* about starting a counteroffensive against any dug-in enemy in well prepared defensive lines without having *total airspace dominance* over the theater of operations. Ukraine has begun its counteroffensive without this fundamental prerequisite and, albeit heavy losses in men and materiel, it's still achieving some degree of success. More than the alleged ruZZian "winter offensive", anyways.

without Crimea there can be NO peace, because Crimea is like a giant Aircraft Carrier in the middle of the Black Sea, always a thorn on the side of Ukraine and an obsticle for true Ukrainian Economic Development and Exports.

That's right. Long range modern capability to beat the tyrant. Slava Ukraini! 🇨🇦🇺🇦

lots of good commentary but... missing the key point which is: Any advantage Russia can get from this war will be a reward for the crimes they commit so....Russia simply should have the option of retreat, judge their war criminals and after that start to show some civilized manners to the rest of the word.... and to pay for the rebuilding of every centimeter they destroyed in Ukraine.

Ukraine MUST have air support!!

If Putin's grip on power is now very tenuous then the importance of taking out the Kerch bridge cannot be overstated. The subsequent very public extreme humiliation would likely finish him off. In fact a black ops operation to get this done might well be the best move NATO has made in a long time.

Never give into fear. Justice for Ukraine.

Russia must be stopped and educated. Putin will end up as Mussolini. Hope.

UA has no obligation to agree to another referendum on Crimea as a condition of peace. There was already one conducted in 1991 and the majority of Crimeans opted to remain with UA. Besides, with the demographic maneuverings of RU since its so-called Special Military Operation, many Crimean residents have been displaced snd replaced with RU immigrants. And what makes you think any future RU leader will even honor the results unless its tilted towards RU integration?

If the political leaders in the West are concerned about "burnout" brought about by a lengthy war, why aren't they giving Ukraine more and better equipment and capabilities? A war that ends earlier reduces the risk of that burnout. The West should be "pedal to the medal" with equipment and training to Ukraine. Ukraine should be getting F-16s, ATACMS, artillery by the mountain, and other advanced capabilities that are available. Russia has no ability to resist Ukraine and her allies IF the West decides that this war needs to end sooner than later. Let's get with it politicians. Get it done!

There was a referendum when Ukraine gained independence and Crimea voted to leave the Russian Federation, albeit by a smaller margin than elsewhere. Another referendum would be a reward for aggression. When there have been deportations as well as inbound Russian migration, who gets to vote?

The whole of europe can't rely on trump not being elected as our defense strategy

Ukraine will never be safe without Crimea, that would be a monumental mistake

Well, what a different tone to your interview, Mr Galeotti, from 3 hours ago, may I say. The earlier one appeared extremely negative towards Ukraine's progress. This one, more balanced. I have been incensed at much of the West media's reportage recently on Putin's crime. Ukraine fights for all who cherish democracy whatever its faults, including those pundits who sit in comfort thousands of miles away from the battlefield. Can I suggest that TIMES R and your good self watch up to the minute battle coverage from the Ukraine military? Jane Soole, Dorset, England, aged 79 . Unless Putin is flat out beaten soundly, our freedoms are at stake for decades to come.

Ukraine needed tanks and ATACMS and HIMARS on Day 1. Far too much foot dragging and hand wringing in the West. We have seen that whatever kit they are given, they will make the best use of it. So give them what they need. There is no higher use for that kit. This is precisely what it was intended for.

Excellent commentary. Great thanks, Mark Galleotti! Slava Ukraini!

this is a great interview; this fella is straight to the point with no weaseling, very well informed

Excellent interview. I like Mr Galleotti's pragmatic analysis. The interviewer has the sense not to interrupt and allow him.speak.

It wouldn't have to be a long term war if we would just equip Ukraine with what it needs to win. All these delays in decisions, training and delivery almost seem deliberate. NATO doesn't want Ukraine to lose, but they don't want them to win either.

Prior to Ukraine war or at the start, Putin was very negative when dealing with his military leaders. Its ironic how when there was a Wagner coup (if real), only the Russian air force tried to oppose their March on Moscow.

Instead of painfully drip feeding Ukraine weapons at a massive cost of lives on both sides we all should have equipped them fully from the start of the war. Sadly NATO countries have drip fed and will probably be making a fortune and amazing deals on allowing this to continue for several years!

It is not being beat on the battle field that will defeat Russia.. it is their economy .. it is in free fall

Now putin is attempting to blame *NAFO* for the collapsing russian ruble. You literally can't make this stuff up🤣

Putin………I will keep on retreating until I win!

As long as the support of weapons include that none is allowed to be used against Russias land except the annexed its like a tennisplayer is not allowed to serve in a game!

When I lived in Russia, a couple of times totalling four years, I never heard a single Russian demoan that Crimea was not part of Russia. I did encounter ethnic Russians in Crimea who felt that but even those were a minority. Nobody was upset with the pre-2014 status quo until the propagandists told them they should be.

SLAVA UKRAINE 🇺🇦

Glory to Ukraine !!!

There's still HOPE. Very interesting interview with a very small, but POSITIVE , feel. 🤞🙏✊ Peace.

A referendum in Crimea any time soon is pretty much pointless. 1. Russia forcefully deported a vast portion of the Crimean Tatar population 2. Many people who left to avoid being under Russian occupation The only way out for Crimea is independence or as part of Ukraine. Anything else will be unacceptable.

I became disinterested when he started talking about making some sort of concessions in Crimea.

Oh come on Mark. That won't fly.

Regarding Crimea: I was in Crimea in the mid 1990s and spent some time at the university in Simferopol. The collapse of Soviet Union was still fresh in the minds of the Crimean people and debates were ongoing as to whether they wanted to be a part of russia or to be a part of Ukraine. I would say the needle tilted towards wanting to return to russia back then. But it is important to take into account that things will be changing now that russia has no economic future. The Ukraine war, NATO, Western Europe and the US have seen to that. For Crimeans, this may take awhile to set in, but I'm confident that in a few years time, one would be hard pressed to fine any Crimeans who want to be attached to a broke, impotent russia while Ukraine is joining the European Union, and benefiting from a steady influx of Western dollars. Therefore I would predict that in five years time, the majority of Crimeans would vote to rejoin Ukraine.

Why does this man have valuable Russian reserve weaponry on top of his bookshelf?

If the USA abandons Ukraine, I sure hope the same people don’t ‘pass the hat around’ for Taiwan…

Why is it that only the UK people that speak on this war seem to think that Ukraine can survive as a country without retaining Crimea, i really wish they would pull their heads out of their arses.

War wariness is not the same as Submission. Western Countries dictating to the Ukrainians what should be acceptable for Ukrainians is arrogance to the extreme. Would Germany be prepared to give up Rostock region, would the UK give up the Falklands, should the USA give up Guam or Hawaii so that a settlement could be made? NEVER, especially in light of the Russian atrocities and war crimes. Slava Ukraine.

TIME$ never fails to amaze me, by just even looking at the title on every wishful narrative on a daily basis. Very creative! 😁

It is the West’s fault that Ukraine got too little arms too late, and this allowed the Russians the time to entrench . The West then cost Ukraine lives and lost lots of the equipment they themselves provided . 😢

No vote on Crimea! What ludicrous is this?

Finally, a Western expert who is brave enough to speak out loud the concept that the war will not end when Ukraine restores its territorial integrity. You can push Ukraine to negotiate all you want, but russian demands haven't changed so far, meaning they are not interested in negotiations

Mark Galeotti gets it!

NATO people are too much worried about Mr. Putin.

Brilliant argumentation Thank you

It was never going move as quick as people in West wanted or thought .. Ukraine was planning 6 month for this counteroffensive and give Russian credit they were planning there defences for 6 month laying and rolling out what have land mines n dragons teeth and so what so was never goin move way west spoke of that's people never been in war would talk like war is always a case of enemy has say on how fast you can move no matter what enemy has say on everything to point till it no longer has say in it that's when you have broke thegh but that's not easy . Certainly not easy when don't have air support .no army in living memory has went war without air support . So Ukraine doing fantastic job just now when don't have weapons they asked for at start this war the west has dragged heels on giving them long range weapons but then talks about how slow its moving ?? That's not fair on Ukraine really isn't there brave people in that country and doin great job with what have at hand just now .. Slava Ukraine...call sign braveheart .. love n respect this country so much 💙💛💙💛🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿💙💛💙💛🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿❤💯💯

It normally takes about two years to full train a soldier. So expecting Ukraine to do the same in a few months is asking a lot.

Why aren't we seeing opposition in Russia gathering in one of the many isolated regions/republics (like for example Tuva) and arming themselves? If it is one thing that Russia probably doesn't have now, it is a lot of military in those areas...

A referendum in Crimea? After shipping out all the Tartars and importing Russians for decades?

Great interview. Thank you. 😎

its like blowing up a balloon. The Russians are getting stretched and there will be no obvious win until it pops. Then it will be all over.

A control freak has failed😂 Wait until November and put him on top .....Guy faulks 😮

Never give into fear. Justice for Ukraine.. Never give into fear. Justice for Ukraine..

A lot of uncertainty. Noticeable among their diplomats.

Unfortunately Ukraine has lost personnel at a high - not to say alarming - rate. This is both causing a personnel shortage as well as having an effect on morale. Meanwhile, the Americans continue deliberately to stall the supply of armaments that would make a difference: ATACMs and F-16s.

Being former investigator for an Australian Police Force, I find the lack of supporting evidence incredible a lot is based on hearsay, the evidence presented does not represent facts. Regardless of which side you on are on you need to look at facts. Firstly, Ukraine is one of the most corrupts governments (from western sources), Ukraine is desperate, they haven't the troops, the money (reliant on the west), no means to be self sufficient, Ukraine government has major challenges, infrastructure destroyed, they don't have the population or resources to carry a long term war compared to Russia, Stable Government, much larger population to draw resources from, has full Military Support Systems and Resources, they are not short of ammunition, the Russians are financial they started with 600 Billion in the bank (USA is $33 Trillion in Debt), Russians are not short on Ammunition or Men unlike Ukraine. People just look at the facts. Ukraine has not the capacity or resources even with West backing to win the war. This is historical facts, also this war started back with the Minsk agreements that the West did not honour. I just find it fascinating that people do not look at facts you are all caught up in emotion and what CNN or Propaganda of West than to look at just pure facts. I can tell you this based on facts. Russia will win this war, the USA and NATO will sell some excuse that Ukraine failed....

I really don't think China is on the fence about this war, it's playing both sides, heard a story recently about a Ukrainian soldier storming a Russian trench and finding 26 boxes of Chinese Drones supplied to the Russians.

Crimea is not ready for a fair referendum . In 15 years then you might consider it. I would not consider it since it would be like England giving Cornwall up to Ireland.

After the war crimes of Putin, to concede one square inch of Ukraine to Russia would be like a recompense to a terrorist. The negotiation should only be related to the delay in which Ukraine can be a member of NATO. I don't think it is a good plan to concede anything to someone using the nuclear threat. Then, Crimea should not be negotiable just for reason of strategy. Ukrainian can lend later some part of Crimea, after years of solid peace and non aggression, maybe.

I've added Mark Galeotti to the list of people I will always listen to when I new interviews with Times radio or other news outlets. A short list including General Ben Hodges and Professor Michael Clarke.

Totally out of touch with the idea for organize a voting in Crimea.

Ninth Corps was rotated out to rest and refit, according to what I've read. That puts them in strategic reserve, or most of ninth, anyway, plus half of tenth. That's still a sizable reserve, especially compared to Russian reserves.

The fighting in the Bocage in Normandy was very like what is now happening in Ukraine.

its folly without air support , they need f16s and a10s throw in some apaches aswell.

Excellent information

Mr. Galleotti’s analysis is always very informative and welcome. Thank you very much. 🇺🇦✌️

I've been hearing/reading that the Russian Army is on the verge of collapse for a year now. As much as I want it to be true, I'm not holding my breath.

I'm amazed they don't have a referendum on what to do next. Like Australia

Why is it terrorism when Ukraine shoots at moscow but a military operation when Russia shoots at Kiev?

In war the logic prevail so if you invade a country and thought win in three weeks and in present day past more than year, the logic says that you didn't calculate all options of winning and underrated your opponent, so by the logical Russia already lost this war the only question is where will be the Russians troops where they assume they lost, perhaps inside 200km in Russia. In that case that will be created an security territory 200km far east Ukraine recognized border deep inside Russia.

maybe the russians could have a recruitment drive in africa?. but in all seriousness they can't even take the ukraine, how would they expect to fair against the full might of nato?.

82 Armored Brigade was thrown into the fray a few days ago, so the Ukrainians went from "half of 10th Corp is still uncommitted" to "all the chips are now on the table" in the space of three days. That's not good. Not good at all.

Amazing information thanks 🙏

If the allies had given ukraine what it needed when it needed , this could have saved so much heartache and destruction. It costs more in the long run through hesitation and dithering.

The 14 Challenger 2s will be operationally irrelevant in Ukraine. They were only sent to pressure Germany.

Mark Galeotti brilliant , keep up the good work

Unrealistic compared to a video game or a TV war.

Why must the audio volume levels be so consistently low on this channel?

This guy is what we in Norway call a Quisling...

I'm always interested in Mark's take on things.

Very Smart analysis..

I am personally tired of the insinuation that Ukraine lacks bipartisan support in the US. False. I do agree with the analysis that Trump is a wildcard who likely would greatly complicate diplomacy

I am reminded of MI6 and Ben Wallace’s prognoses last year that Russia was running out of weapons! Well done, Times, for finding unicorns!

Headlines in 2028: Putin out of ammo, out of troops

It’s still trench warfare guys. I’ve watched them clearing Russian dugouts. The tech is not a factor there, it’s still close quarters, bloody, deadly combat. It’s frustrating both hearing complaints about the speed of the counterattack and the money we’re spending. Think about it. Russia is the primary reason we have to be well armed, so it’s disingenuous to avoid accepting that they’re fighting our battle and our children aren’t dying and being maimed. Ukrainians are. Let’s get off the fence and do something you don’t have to lie to your grandchildren about.

No concessions on Crimea

This guy is 🤡 show. I have a foundation in Eastern Europe rebuilding churches for two decades. We’ve been and are in Ukraine. He’s not particularly fully informed.

Russia has to give Crimea back to the Ukrainians the only thing Russia can really gain in those negotiations is the " right of deposit " for shipping privileges as once was negotiated by Jefferson with Spain over the port of New Orleans. But sometimes demilitariztions is the price of peace ✌.

I recall the ancient Roman siege of the fortress of Masada on the Dead Sea, (which I visited!), where the Romans resolved to build an enormous earthen ramp to gain access to the walls of the hilltop fortress. Despite the incredible amount of time and materials and losses in manpower they eventually succeeded. The Jews, knowing defeat was inevitable all committed suicide, denying the Romans the opportunity to gloat. The Ukrainians have a similar resolve as did the Romans and they are not too concerned about the time it takes.

Russia is conscripting up to age 70 not looking good for them.

Pure propaganda bs

This is the real question. how many can he get? There is 30 million of fighting age in russia. He can literary mobilize for decades.

Times Radio.Where we all come to get our good portion of cope.

Why does this conversation feel edited…is it even a conversation between people, or is it just edited to almost feel like a conversation? The answers feel pre planned and rehearsed. There is no attempt to talk over each other, or back and forth, just : question/long, elaborate answer/question/long, elaborate answer….. Perhaps it WAS an interview/conversation, but the dude in the glasses didn’t like the way it went, then decided to record new answers then edit them in afterwards…🤷🏽‍♂️

Sober analysis from Galeotti