I think Fabi is most likely to win, but I'd like to see Nepo win for obvious reasons. This year, I myself failed to make the candidates, but I have vowed to do ten tactics puzzles every day for a whole month if that's what it takes to make it next time.
You guys highly underestimate Gukesh .. Bro .. he went 7/7 in Olympiad Who else did that He was tearing everybody apart He destroyed Fabiano ( Candidate favourite) from a totally worse position Watch moree gukesh games
Can’t you tell I watch every Gukesh game?? There are no more for me to watch! (Also, if you cherry-pick his best result then you have to cherry-pick the best result of each other player, you go Caruana at Sinquefield Cup, stronger opposition, and you come to the same conclusion that we did by other methods: Caruana is the favorite.)
2:01 Jesse is just completely unable to believe Magnus' thinks the way he does about the World Championship. I'm not even saying he should try to understand. But he should at least try to accept that Magnus, sound of mind and body, made his decision on the matter. Magnus has spoken and acted very consistently for years now. He doesn't want to play in the current format. He doesn't like the stress, has little left to prove and doesn't need the money. Hikaru being world champ wouldn't change that.
Why anybody would be surprised by this view is beyond me. Imagine if last year's NBA champion only had to beat one team to be the champion again. Also imagine the team they were playing had months to prepare for them and focused only on that. This is a silly and ridiculous way of determining who the world champion is.
Jesse and Magnus could be from different planets. Magnus was the world #1 when he skipped the 2011 candidates because he didn't like the format. He missed a chance to become the youngest world champion in history, but he didn't care. Jesse would have jumped at that chance if it was him, but Magnus is motivated differently. It is pretty doubtful Naka being world champion would change anything.
Last time , I distinctly remember that our views varied on Firouzja . You guys predicted him to finish at the top end. I had him 8th. I predicted Nepo to win and Radja to do good too if you remember . From experience of watching candidates , here's my prediction for this years 1. Fabiano Caruana : Smooth play from him , he's the most stable of the lot. Players like Karjakin and Caruana simply win candidates by being as solid as possible and striking when needed 2. Prag: it won't be obvious for a long time but late into the tournament , the solid Prag will strike a couple of late wins to finish 2nd 3. Naka: Solid as ever , he will also win the odd game 4. Firouzja : slightly better showing than last time . This is his stabilising candidates performance 5. Nepo: finally Nepo will have one of those topsy turvy tournaments he's famous for and finish slightly below half 6. Vidit : Been playing well overall but also has a tendency to bottle the big game 7. Abasov: everyone expects the last seed to finish last but always there's one player who has a big nightmare tournament worse than the last seed 8. Gukesh: extremely streaky player who also has shown nerves in the big stage before
@@ChessDojo one thing I’m interested in knowing you guys’ views is if there’s a slight indifference on Russian/Eastern European players’ class in the Anglo media. For example , if Caruana had won back to back candidates like Nepo, would there be a much bigger hype around it ? Similarly Radja last tournament was a bit disrespected though he’s a player who is absolute class and no one can beat him if he really decides to lock down and was rated 2800 at his best: he’s very similar to Wesley on that but Wesley is so much more respected. It happened with Karjakin too : he pushed Magnus closer than anyone but people just mention that in passing while Fabi is seen as some demigod for doing what Karjakin did It happens in tennis too: Medvedev’s insane consistency is barely spoken about while if Alcaraz or Sinner does the same thing we never hear the end of it
Not sure about the Anglo media, but before the previous candidates Radjabov was by far the most inactive player, so it made sense that people had few expectations for him. Kostya is Eastern European himself so probably not much bias against those players from him!
Nepo will win candidates, Fabi in 2nd. Ding won’t defend title so Fabi and Nepo will play. Fabi will win and Nepo will have been the 3 in a row candidates winner who lost to 3 different world champions
For me, I think my rankings are exactly the same as Jesse's if you swap Nepo and Firouzja. I understand the scepticism around Nepo I really do, but I just don't see a world where you can rank a guy who won it twice lower than the top 2. I'm also happy to acknowledge my personal bias against Naka as I really don't gel with him at all, I don't really find his games entertaining and as a person I think we're just so far removed from each other, so I'm probably doing the same thing with him but in reverse.
The thought on Naka is pretty stupid. He probably plays 200 games a day essentially is able to auto play every position is the best defensive player in chess. Will crush this tournament with a score of 11. Will crush ding and then retire from classical chess world champ and never allow Magnus to beat him for the title . Ultimate troll job
I don't get the theory about Hikaru vs Magnus. Hikaru's not an arch rival in classical, they're just mentioned together a lot because they have equal fame level.
I think people are slightly underestimating Nakamura. His black openings are very solid now. AFAIK he hasn’t lost a game in over a year. He can push against the younger, inexperienced players with white pieces.
I don't think he's lost a classical game since the last Candidates, but keep in mind he didn't play nearly as many classical games as any of the other players. That said, I think he has a real chance of winning the Candidates this year. Mentally he's in a very good place and he's playing the best chess of his life.
Since everyone os doing it: 1. Caruana 2. Nepo 3. Nakamura 4. Pragg 5. Vidit 6. Firouzja 7. Gukesh 8. Abasov Mostly excited that the event is starting in a few days!
@@movieshistory768 He simply hasn't proven he can beat the top guys this year. His performances at the grand swiss (39th after starting as the 3rd seed) and the Sinquefield Cup (7th out of 8 after starting as the 2nd seed) where terrible for his standards. He tried getting into the Candidates by self organizing "matches". Maybe I suffer from the same thing as Kostya: I am just really disappointed in him. But he is by far the hardest to judge and I can reasonably put him 3-7.
@@odysseas573 The thing is that you never know what you can expect from him, he is very unpredictable, there is a huge talent but not enough maturity I believe, all being said I think he still stands a good chance to be in the top 3 If he plays his standards
I heard an interview with Magnus he feels it’ll be between Hikaru and Fabiano I think he favored Fabiano to win it moreso I’m a Gukesh fan myself I’m just glad to see him compete love watching all these GMs Alireza Fabiano Pragg Hikaru Nepo etc should be some Great Games let the Best player win God Bless
This channel is a known Ding hater channel. It is why this toxic trio will never grow their channel beyond what it is. Imagine constantly shitting on our reigning world champion, who, even when out of form is tying Magnus in a tournament, and when in form completely crushes their favorite (Caruana) 4-0 in classical over the last 7 years. But nope, they will never give Ding his fair accolades. Just look at how they're ranking Nepo, the guy who won this event Twice in a row.
@@williamshake7559I hear you William but unfortunately they are not the only ones Ding has been struggling but all the negativity people direct toward him is sickening I’m Glad the candidates is here and the WC after that people can whine about other things instead
I do find it interesting that for David, Naka having a few good tournaments warrants a jump up to 2, but Nepo literally winning the candidates twice only gets him to 5 😂
Nepo didn't show a very consistent or impactfull performances in 1 year compared to naka who never lost in classical since last year, even magnus stated the same thing.
The difference is that in between Nepo had bad events, and Naka did not. My starting point is basically looking at their performance rating over their last 20-50 classical games.
Don't be surprised if Naka wins this. Becoming a successful and beloved streamer as well as identifying as a streamer has really helped his mental health, and I think helped his chess as well. He has as much or more raw talent than anybody else in the field. Hopefully he's spent some of that Internet money on getting himself a real trainer and opening researcher.
Nepo won the 2021 candidates decisively, but then everyone (not me though, lol) counted him out after he lost to Magnus. Then he won decisively again in the 2022, and now people want to count him out again because he lost to Ding. Seems foolish to me, haha.
That would be the craziest thing ever imagine Ding winning the WC after his sad play of late not very probable but it would be killer if he did he’d Quiet all the haters
I think the players most likely to awaken Magnus are the youngsters: Firouzja, Gukesh, Pragg. I doubt Magnus would care about Nakamura winning enough to come back.
I'd say Fabi, Hikaru, Ian, Alireza are the most likely top 4, but the three young Indian players are a real wildcard. I can see any one of them winning, or being kingmaker.
Kind of agree. I have a feeling this is Praggs final breakthrough. If I was a gambling man, at the current odds I would choose Pragg. And bet a coin on a double on him and his sister in the womans tournament just because the universe likes to make great stories 🙂 But I have to rank Fabi first: 1: Fabi 32% 2: Pragg 26% 3: Naka 13% 4: Nepo 11% 5: Gukesh 9% 6: Vidit 5% 7: Firouzja 4% 8: Abason 0% (okay never 0, but 0,1 then)
I don't think there's anyone or anything that could bring Magnus back to the WCC at this point, sadly. But I do think most of the candidates players would organize a match with him if they won the WCC.
My ranking: 1) Caruana 2) Nepo 3) Nakamura 4) Gukesh 5) Prag 6) Firouzja 7) Vidit 8) Abasov Caruana is clearly the favorite. He's highest rated, is the most solid, has lots of experience, and has been doing very well lately. I don't think anyone will dispute this. Next are Nepo and Nakamura. They are the most seasoned and the highest rated, and they can get wins. I put Nepo first just because he's done this twice before. Also, Naka might do well, but he might disappoint. He might play it too safe and walk away with too many draws to get first place or press too hard for a win and lose a couple of critical games. Nepo, on the other hand is probably a safer bet because he will have his openings well-prepared and will come with some good tricks that could get him some wins. So, ultimately, I have to place Nepo ahead of Nakamura. I would like to put Firouzja next for the same reason - he is the next highest rated on the list. However, he hasn't been playing as much, and his rating came from, shall we say, "questionable" circumstances (holdover from old results, and recent results were against weaker players). Also, he doesn't seem as committed as the others. Even though the Indians are technically lower rated than him, they have been on fire recently and are probably in better form than Firouzja. Between Gukesh and Prag, I have to put Gukesh first. I think he's slightly more stable than Prag. If it comes down to rapid/blitz tiebreakers, I think Prag would be ahead, and Prag is better at pulling tricks out of his hat when he really has to, but ultimately I think Gukesh is more reliable. I put Vidit lower than the other Indian kids just because he's lower rated, didn't do as well in the Prague Masters, and he doesn't have as much support behind him as the other two. I had to decide whether to put him or Firouzja ahead, but I think the decision to put Firiouzja ahead of him is an obvious one. Firouzja is far higher rated and more experienced at playing a candidates tournament. And then Abason is obviously the dark horse. He might surprise, but he has to be put eighth.
My top 3: 1. Nepo: kinda a wild card considering he lost twice in a row during finals. 2. Hikaru: he is on fire right now without losing once at classical since last year and has played consistently in most tournaments. 3. Fabi: same reason with hikaru but right now he is on a losing streak againts naka so he need created some counter-play.
I Am calling this right now Vidit wins this candidate's he is peaking around the right time and his last tournament he played not so great openings another sign of someone bottling stuff up for the big one. Also he has shown in the grand prix that he can win on demand which is something that was missing from his skillset The top dogs are that for a reason and its fabi and Naka's race to lose but amongst the indians i have VD has my pick .
Would love to see that, I'm a big fan of Vidit and I think he can do it, based on his great games in the Grand Swiss and also in Tata Steel he played a really nice game. He has such a deep understanding of chess positions.
Great show. Magnus isn´t coming back. Face it. He prefers 960 and shorter time controls. Jesse is obsessed with Magnus. I guess Ding has been sick, physical and had a very hard time mentally afterwards. And being in China during Corona was very tuff. Maybe Ding will withdraw and the number 2 spot will be very important again. Look at Nakamura streaming when he play Magnus, he get´s very nervous, if he reacts the same when playing for first place in the candidates he has a problem.
Naka seems very solid, stable and focused. Nepo has shown already that he knows how to plan good tournament strategy. Caruana is going to risk too much and risk even more to get to the 1st place (to be honest the same could be applied to Nepo, but still I'm expecting less risking from him if only first games are good).
Ya Vidit is rock solid. He'll probably draw a bunch of games, grind out a couple wins, and finish about 3rd - 4th. I think his chances of winning the whole thing though are low because he just doesn't win enough against the top super-GMs
Okay my list. tbh 1 and 2 should be reversed but I think the drama and the media hype would be a little greater if Naka wins, so 1.Naka 2.Fabi 3.Nepo 4.Firu 5.Vidit 6.Pragg 7.Guke 8.Abasov
23:00 the phrase “the nature of their race” is such an unfortunate phrase 😂 totally understood the intended meaning, but I definitely had a double take
It's going to be Caruana, Nepo or Hikaru, no matter how you slice it. I don't think Magnus gives two fooks who gets to the final or wins it. He doesn't like the long drawn out format and has said this loads of times.
I think Caruana wins it with Hikaru getting 2nd. I believe this will be a very bad tournament for Vidit so I have him as last and then a bad showing for Nepo with him getting 2nd last. Abasov above Nepo and the 3 youngsters will be 3rd,4th and 5th not sure in what order.
I am going into this 100% expecting that Pruess goes with "Abasov is the favorite" (for all the ranking I saw on chessdojo, Pruess is quite against the mainstream opinion). Let's see if my prediction is correct.
Did Jesse say Carlsen hates Nakamura? I obviously don't know them personally but I dont get that sense at all. Not at all. It seems they generally have friendly banter and ribbing. I don't see it, but I could be wrong. Also, love Naka, he's my current favorite player and I want him to win this. That said, he's not Bobby Fischer. He's not better than Bobby Fischer as Jesse claims. That's an insane take. Yes, he has the advantage of higher ratings due to being alive in the online/engine ERA of chess. Until he becomes world champ, he's not in Bobby's league.
Ding has been terrible since and including the championship. Whoever wins this candidates will be the next champion and will crush Ding. It will not be close.
If u put a gun to my head and said pick I’m probably going Fabi or nepo. If you told me to pick without a gun to my head I’m going hikaru, alirezza or pragg Also with magnus I don’t see anyone competing with him even hikaru I just don’t think it would be interesting enough for him, because there’s no conversation you can make to say hikaru is better and everyone in the chess world knows it.
If Fabi doesn’t get over stressed like he did last time, he seems to be the clear winner. Naka and Nepo have outside chances. Among Indians, In believe Gukesh to be the best. He did great in WkJ and Prague wasn’t that bad. Visit’s second is interesting. So Vidit can pull off a great show too. So when Kostya keeps him 4th, I sort of get him. Vidit can surprise. Pragg will be solid same as Vidit. Might win the tournament too. He had a 40+ undefeated steak just before the candidates . I mean he almost lost to Gukesh in WKJ and I don’t think Gukesh or any of the candidates will do that same mistake in the candidates. So, Pragg will be solid. Abasov, I haven’t seen the guy much. Who is his second, Rajabov? Then underestimating him won’t do anyone good.
My picks: 1. Nepo 2. Gukesh 3. Nakamura 4. Caruana 5. Vidit 6. Pragg 7. Firouzja 8. Abasov Ready to be completely wrong, haha. I'd note as well that I think it's a real shame that Nodirbek isn't in the cycle, I'd want to give him good odds against the field.
My head is spinning that at least at this stage of the tournament, my predictions are almost exactly perfect (just swap Vidit and Pragg by half a point). Let's see if it holds!
1. Caruana, back op top with the highest rating and more experience in candidates tournaments than anyone. He's won one before and he can do it again. 2. Nepo has won the last two candidates in a row. When he's on a roll he can beat all these guys. 3. Nakamura has been doing great lately. He has a ton of experience and a good mentality not to mention the second highest rating. 4. Firouzja. Last time expectations were sky high. This time he's no longer the new kid on the block. This makes him less interesting to the fickle masses but he's the third rated on this list and will have learned from his mistakes last time. 5. Gukesh. The youngest player there. I only put him slightly above Pragg because like Nepo he's capable of running away with tournaments. Also like Nepo he's not always consistent. 6 Pragg has made it to the big league as per expectations. I think he could win and long term I think he might keep growing where others plateau. He's pretty new to this level though. He's also not known to greatly overperform which he needs to do a little to actually win this. 7. Vidit. The second lowest rated player on the list having been good but below world championship level for a while. He won't get crushed, but he won't win either. 8. Abasov looks a bit out of place with his rating. Not coming last would be a good result for him. Winning is exceedingly unlikely.
Dojo guys dont take into acount emotional chess part they just sees chess strenght part..Radjabov always was very tough emotionally and that why he usaully is super solid and emotionally stable in Olympiad or candidates.Same with Ding he will be fine in next world championship,because he is stable and have experience of those bright lights cameras in those matches when entire chess world watching. Some indian kid will feel such pressure he never ever had before if one of them will qualife for match. Only Caruana would be clear favourite vs Ding in match,any other candidates winner not so sure.
@@ChessDojo yes.We also saw how Nepo tottaly collapsed vs Carlsen and then smoked candidate tournament. Anand had no chance in first carlsen match and smoked candidates tournament. People dont realise those world championship matches makes those players alot stronger mentally even if they lose.Put 17 or 18 old indian kid in that match Ding is favourite in my book knowing chess history
