Ray Dalio: Principles for Dealing with The Changing World Order

Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California

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Today’s economy is painted by headlines as hectic, turbulent and uncertain-reports of massive debt, fluctuating interest rates, and widespread money printing abound. Yet to legendary investor and acclaimed financial innovator Ray Dalio, this is all part of a pattern-one that has been occurring repeatedly throughout the past 500 years of global economic history.
Ray Dalio is the founder, co-chief investment officer, and chairman for Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund by assets, as well as a leading expert in investment philosophy, corporate management and author of the #1 New York Times bestseller Principles.
In his latest book, Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order, Dalio provides insights from more than half a century of studying the history of the world economy and its ties to the rising and falling of great powers-and how they fit into a “Big Cycle” that has persisted and is at work in the present day. His findings are that the times ahead will be unlike any we've faced in our lifetime, and he gives practical advice on how to prepare for what’s next.
Join us as Dalio walks through 5 centuries of economic conditions, political shifts and major shifts in the wealth and power of nations, highlighting hidden patterns and providing insight to safely navigate the times to come.
NOTES
This program is generously supported by the Jackson Square Partners Foundation.
MARCH 1, 2022
SPEAKERS
Ray Dalio
Founder, Co-Chief Investment Officer and Chairman, Bridgewater Associates; Author, Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail; Twitter @RayDalio
In Conversation with Michael Moritz
Partner, Sequoia Capital
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25 июл 2024

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Комментарии : 85

@randalchao 2 года назад

Chinese old adage: 人無遠慮，必有近憂。if you don’t have longer term worries, imminent disaster is coming. Ray is absolute right about the current state of the US. All comes to the simple fundamentals: earn more than you spend (be financially responsible); be nice to each other (be civil internally); and don’t start unnecessary external wars(wars are destructive and expensive, avoid if can)

@TheDavidlloydjones 2 года назад

On one of the few occasions when a person doesn't say "Confucius say," the quotation is in fact from the Analects of Confucius.

@jasonjohnson6216 2 года назад

Every country has debt they will never be able to pay off. Yes we use are military to bully other countries but we're not the only one. People act like we're the big mean bully on the playground and everyone else is getting along great. Debt to gdp puts the US in a lot better shape than China and most western countries. The Dollar will not be replaced by any other countries currency, it will be replaced by a new world order currency system not related to any country. I don't know how they plan on pulling this off but I'm pretty sure it ain't ganne be easy

@civiltrialatty 2 года назад

Hello. Learning so much. Please note I recently finished M Pillsbury’s alarming book “100 Year Marathon” - (chronicles CCPs “unrestricted warfare” against USA for decades) and have since done a deep dive on classic Marxist subversion techniques - (eg fanning tribalism, elite capture - (gotta assume Mr Dalio has been a target)- and media / narrative control - all promoted in KGB manuals published in the 1950s - to undermine Uncle Sammie. Questions for Mr Dalio: 1. Isn’t it true that the CCPs power principally comes from the Obama administration’s errant decision in 2013/2014 to provide the CCPs SOEs PREFERENTIAL access to our capital markets resulting in a capital transfer of 5 to 7 trillion? Notably US was represented in these negotiations by our current president - good ole Joe - and alarming reports are surfacing of potential multi million dollar corruption surrounding this Trillion dollar transaction involving the Presidents son Hunter. Doesn’t this possible high level corruption undermine ur “enviable rise of CCP” argument? In other words, if the CCPs rise is principally due to fraud, corruption, theft and inducing treason vs some historical inevitably - this also undermines ur argument / position - correct? 2. You are a Biden supporter - correct? 3. In light of M Pillsbury’s above noted alarming book “100 Year Marathon” - again chronicling the CCPs unrestricted warfare against USA - and in light of the CCPs underwriting of the war crimes in UKR - overt partnership / alliance w Putin - a declared war criminal - what is a fair ESG penalty for a US corp that knowingly exploits Chinese slave labor for increased profits and shareholder value - now knowing of the war crimes in UKR? Any ESG penalty? Funny how this thing operates more like a marxist social and political control mechanism - incidentally just like what the CCP uses to control its own people - rather than a helpful guide for investors. Response to this comment? 4. How do you personally define treason? .

@josejose2001 2 года назад

@@civiltrialatty The Game is rigged and it has been for a long time. I highly recommend reading Anthony C Sutton's books.

@chrisboyer7178 2 года назад

I love Ray, so wise.

@chrisboyer7178 2 года назад

he's rationally explaining what I have intuitively sensed for years.

@karenthomson9749 2 года назад

Yeah bro we all believe you.

@chrisboyer7178 2 года назад

@@karenthomson9749 a Karen go figure

@karenthomson9749 2 года назад

@@chrisboyer7178 nice one Chris 😉

@karenthomson9749 2 года назад

@@chrisboyer7178 is that all you got Chris?

@chrisboyer7178 2 года назад

@@karenthomson9749 sadly yes. That is all I got.

@hollyhatcherparashar Год назад

Lord help me be like Ray!

@aaazzi 2 года назад

One of the most powerful and important decks ever presented

@ravindertalwar553 2 года назад

ALMIGHTY GOD BLESS YOU 🙏

@garbonomics 2 года назад

This is not the first iteration of this argument. However it is perhaps the most detailed and explained through heavy amounts of data/empirical evidence. In short, unfortunately I must say, we may be seeing the decline of the American world order before our very eyes. Even though we know and understand these changes we are absolutely incapable of rectify the ship because of the critical mass of people who think nothing’s the matter. I will say that most of those less willing to recognize there’s anything wrong are the ones who will miss the American empire the most.

@sprinkle61 2 года назад

I think most people realize we are on the decline, the problem is, there is no consensus on what to do about it. Trump was all about fighting for the manufacturing jobs we lost 20 years ago, but that horse had left the barn long ago. Ray wants us to live within our means, but no one wants to save and invest, so we just struggle on with more bailouts, even as the dollar goes into the toilet.

@hayden1770 2 года назад

The decline is now happening at such a velocity that it's impossible to stop. Meanwhile, China's rise is happening with the same velocity upwards that it is also impossible to stop. A lot of westerners find China's political system distasteful and believe that China's own system will cause it to fall. That logic is ridiculous because the very same system was highly involved in its strong rise.

@sprinkle61 2 года назад

@@hayden1770 If you look at Ray Dalio's RU-vid video, its charts show that the US decline over the decades is slow and orderly, Its possible the decline is accelerating rapidly right now from war and pandemic, but we won't know that for a few years. The problem is, the Chinese rise, on the other hand, is strait up parabolic, and they will be at the top edge of the chart in 10-20 years. Even limiting the US decline to a moderate extent isn't going to change the new reality that is coming, because the US suffers from numerous systemic flaws, like being the high cost producer in most things, and exporting nothing, and these are hard problems to fix, while China has time on its side, at least for now, and can just ride the wave to the top.

@TheDavidlloydjones 2 года назад

The sudden decline in American power? Before our very eyes? Hmmm. It's only been going on since 1945. But you got the first part right, anonymous "Garbo." Ray's repeating tired olde stuff.

@garbonomics 2 года назад

@@TheDavidlloydjones talk about nonsense. Declining since 1945??? We must be living in different realities. In 1945 the United States was the last standing industrialized economy in the world. Far from declining the war pulled America out of the depression and into a period of unimaginable prosperity. It wasn’t until the 60’s that we started seeing mistake after mistake and continued to operate as if the world would remain static in a post war state with us on top. We’ve definitely been seeing the real decline for about 25 years. And I don’t know how old you are but that’s certainly before our eyes. As for the “anonymous” part I have 0 clue what you’re talking about.

@donhansen1175 2 года назад

I knew a man from China who said his parents worked in the field from sun up to sun down every day. When the Japanese came they dared not do so and so starved to death. He had moved to Hong Kong and came eventually to Canada. His children are professionals in Canada. The idea of access being better in China in times past, for talent seems to me a great stretch. I recall the expression: "He does not have a Chinaman's chance". It also blows my mind the level of ingratitude of peoples in the world for the gifts of European technology. Short stemmed grain? Electric motors? Gasoline engines? Diesel Engines? Antibiotics? Telecommunications? aircraft? It comes to my mind that "No good deed goes unpunished". Don Hansen Post script: I recall my father who was a grain elevator agent sitting with the station agent Cy Bell. When rail cars filled with scrap iron passed on their way for export to Japan Cy Bell turned to my father and said:: "I think we will get all this back". We certainly did. They call it Pearl Harbor. Those who invest in China may prove to be like those who sold scrap iron to Japan.

@jimgraham6722 2 года назад

We have a lot to thank the renaissance for, the gift that keeps on giving.

@alecs536 2 года назад

"Capital Has No Nationality". It flowed and will continue to flow to where it is safe and easier to breed, accept it

@c39v26 2 года назад

1,357 ums ....I counted😵

@YouAreWhatYouLove88 2 года назад

I was starting to thanks

@walterbobruk2310 2 года назад

I would like to see his charts updated to at least 2020.. I do believe the US is in the decline stage..

@shockproof1964 2 года назад

Ego often gets in the way of monetary security. You either listen to the one who've studied, learned from past investments, highly acclaimed and sought after for his previous gains and accomplishments and last to not least his higher education or you don’t. Who are held down with pompous ego? The ones on the comments here?

@ValMartinIreland 2 года назад

Ireland had three currencies since 1913 and the value of its money decreased 33 times the the intervening 109 years. Since 1969 it had two currencies viz: the punt and the Euro. The value of its money decreased by 23 times in those 43 years.

@mikeb2777 2 года назад

um I like um um Dalio um

@calohtar 2 года назад

Next time a teacher tells me to not use “filler words” I’m gonna send them this video and ask them how many billion dollars *they’ve* got in the bank

@chasekneib6526 2 года назад

Is it possible for the people, business leaders and elected officials of the world to factor these metrics into the creation of policies in real time so we don’t have to go through this decline every time and see consistent growth? Or is the cycle something that needs to happen? After listening to Rays stuff, he makes it sound like the decline is self inflicted.

@CrucialSpeaks 2 года назад

And it is, oligarchs run the USA and it is DONE, they wont stop it! They wont even jail the worst of all of criminals! Donald Trump and his felons!

@paolagobbo1990 2 года назад

I am wondering if there is not a second player in this equation, EU seems to come together as a block after this tragic events in Ukraine. A potential continent as a block may bring a rupture with the old order and dispute with China the position of leader in the new order.

@tatmax4288 2 года назад

EU is falling apart. EU economy is going to huge stagflation.

@bluetiger1929 2 года назад

Europe would find it very difficult if not impossible to achieve a real unity of purpose to become a third contender of any importance. The EU is run by two countries now Germany and France. They are economically the richest because they hold the most gold and Germany is the industrial powerhouse while France is the biggest food producer in the Union. However there is no real economic equality within the Union Spain suffers from an endemic political corruption, Greece is broke, Italy is almost broke too and the East European countries are still trying to catch up economically and socially. While at the same time they are all wanting to preserve their national identities and nationalism. Also it doesn't help that there is no common language.

@TheDavidlloydjones 2 года назад

Ray, The years when your lines cross depend entirely on the scale you choose for each different colour. By making any line move higher or lower, i.e. making each subjective factor more or less salient, you can move the intersections as far as you like in either direction. Your chart thus represents nothing about actual history, it only tells us what you've chosen to draw. If any researcher in your investment company drew conclusions this flaky, you'd fire them, I'm sure.

@aholstercompany5270 2 года назад

Good info, hard to listen. If we had $100 for every uumm that was spoken, we could pay off half of the debt owed...

@stylemeister1 2 года назад

So hard to stay focus whenever every other word is umm, huh, umm,.........

@vimcfy5216 2 года назад

would not mind a dollar for every "UH..." dished out here .....

@qake2021 2 года назад

👌👌👌🤞🤞🤞✌🏻✌🏻✌🏻

@walterbobruk2310 2 года назад

His studies are factual.... his team did the homework to show us.. We are seeing in the USA the last 20 years as projected in his big cycle chart.. The clothes and the technology change in each cycle I been around over 80 years and remember the beginning of the cycle. WE are no living in the 14/15/16 stages of that big cycle... WE as humans have caused these cycles for over the last 2000 years and more.. READ (The book) the history and why nations rose and fell.. The commonwealth Wealth Club of California shows all the nations and empires listed... Pay attention to the past 500 years.. There are small variation with each nation but in the end the same consequences. It started when humans began to stop being hunters and gathers. Humans are here to procreate like any other species. However we developed brains that could Imagine and make tools. But had no idea that we could impact our environment. OUR basic intintcs are to survive and procreate. Those instincts are the basis of our actions and thoughts today. Gathering in groups was for survival. WE do the same thing today. YOU viewed this video for information that you could use to further your own self and family.. To have foresight of the future from our actions in the past is wisdom. That is what this is all about. When a community of people start to fracture because of a belief system of values they lose cohesiveness( unity). IT that not what is happening in the USA.. ( mass shootings) Jan6th, hate crimes. BLM etc)..??? THink CRITICAL!! I see all the signs of a failing nation. OUR Leaders are clueless to the dynamics and the solution that is necessary. THEY are too late. READ the book!

@scottdavis3571 2 года назад

Yeah, therefore Trump.

@civiltrialatty 2 года назад

@danhines7112 2 года назад

Some good points though fails given the world has since evolved with globalisation. The internet has certainly changed the world. Many factors to consider and governments haven't made easy with policy change. Hold on to your hat!

@charlespeterson778 2 года назад

Aum, aum aum wealth gap aum aum. The fall of China aum aum. The rise of Holland aum aum aum etc.

@goldcicvibefel7628 2 года назад

An error, it seems a bit beyond a mere error.

@LoLoZaurusPrime 2 года назад

FFS AAAaaaaa ..... AAAaaaaa .... AaaaAAAAaaaa ! How many AAAaaaa does he have ? Jeez !

@baddudecornpop5226 2 года назад

Jeez, don't lick his boots so hard. Why didn't you ask him hard questions? He literally helped CAUSE the 2008 failure!

@paulshealthfitness7922 2 года назад

Dalio is Ummm uhhh ummmm getting rusty the poor guy

@civiltrialatty 2 года назад

@paladinyyz6868 2 года назад

I feel sorry for anybody who takes this guys advice. I got an idea Ray...Instead of writing a garbage book..try spending a couple days on the phone calling all your friends and telling them to stop screwing up the place. Just for starters.

@darkdarts8689 2 года назад

China's a good bet to invest uhhh maybe India's a safe haven..umm, or any country dat doesn't had a lot of Dollar reserve

@solorollo9756 2 года назад

Uum uh um um uuuuhuum

@anaesthete 2 года назад

Oh ummmm….no doubt, you must be a billionaire too….

@solorollo9756 2 года назад

@@anaesthete the reality is, it’s annoying no matter who you are

@civiltrialatty 2 года назад

@BradPitbull 2 года назад

Ray dalio and I are here to clap 👏 dem CHEEKS 👏 🙌 😀 😄 😎 😍 👏 Let's go Brandon!!!

@zionen01 2 года назад

I don’t think he’s taking into consideration paradigm shifts, which cannot be inferred by simply looking at history.

@walterbobruk2310 2 года назад

the paradigm shift happens when the blood is in the streets. The USA is at the end of it's time. It is a cycle. His studies are in depth. look at that Big Cycle Chart. History shows We make the same mistakes they just have different different clothes. There is no compromise in all areas of our nation. Polarization is happening at a faster rate in all areas. read your history of the USA from many different angles and you will see..

@PureAstorCatt 2 года назад

I agree. In some ways, history repeats itself or at least has, but I question that we even have access to knowledge about actual world history or American history, and that doesn't work when in uncharted territory.

@josejose2001 2 года назад

The Game is rigged and it has been for a long time. I highly recommend reading Anthony C Sutton's books.

@mossydog2385 2 года назад

it is immoral to compromise with fascists.

@richardbonner2354 2 года назад

It's even more of a crime against Natural Law -- more egregious than compromising -- to "do bid-niss" with fascists and other crooks. Rick Bonner Pennsyltucky

@hayden1770 2 года назад

...more virtue signaling