Retired General Breaks Down Four Ukrainian Counteroffensive Scenarios | WSJ 

The Wagner Group has become the face of the Russian assault in Ukraine. Our documentary, Shadow Men: Inside Russia’s Secret War Company reveals how the Russian private military company hides the flow of riches and resources that ultimately connect to the Kremlin: ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-EMXnJMCoFYI.html

Another military expert bites the dust.

where is this guy now? like to hear what he feels now. 😁

7:30 Those are some interesting logos on the Ukrainian tank.

Very surprised that he lists the most likely scenario as an attack from Kherson to cut the land bridge. I would have thought it would be an attack from Zaporizhia to Melitopol. Attacking from Kherson requires crossing the Dnipro, en masse, which is no easy feat. It would be a massive amphibious operation, which drastically increases the risks for Ukrainian forces.

The fact that there is so much chat about a counter offensive in the press suggests to me thay there isn't going to be a counter offensive for quite some time. I guess when the media spends a month saying "there won't be a counter offensive", is when there will suddenly be one.

These guy giving opinions are the ones who lost all their own conflicts.

An attack over the Dnipro from Kherson would be extremely challenging, this could be a possible secondary vector but very unlikely this will be the primary vector. River crossings add a huge level of difficulty to what is already a hard slog against defence in depth.

No wonder the Afghanistan war was lost with such generals...

Oh, the size of Iceland? That's a relevant reference for most people...

With what army?

2:27 The United States 🇺🇸 military was training the Ukrainian soldiers in 2008-2014.

What I have learned from watching the videocasts of the Ukraine war for the last 450 days or so is how very, very difficult it is to fight a war in the first place. It looks like a constant battle to gain meters of ground and even when you do get territory, the other side can counter attack or use artillery or send missiles or drones. Drones have changed modern warfare forever. One sees that even retired General Kimmet outlines how hard it is going to be to route the Russians off of occupied Ukrainian land. 17% of Ukrainian territory is a lot of territory to take back and now we see how it is going to be some of the fiercest fighting of the war for the Ukrainian counter-offensive to make gains, but most painfully, it looks like there are battles ahead for a long, long time.

What great predictions 'general' with people like you leading our troops no wonder we keep losing 😂😅😂

$1 trillion is poured into the country every year. Are you okay with your head?

The Patriot Missile System lasted for 3 minutes after firing 32 blanks.Let's see how long the F16s will last🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

if the counter-offensive has any success, we'll hear about it, if it fails miserably, we won't know, and they'll say it hasn't started yet.

War is and has always been a balance between surprise and supplies. You can either surprise someone or outsupply them

I’d be extremely suprised if the Kerch bridge is one of the first attack points. I expect the Ukrainians to pinpoint the brigde with a large number of missiles to penetrate the russian defences. It will be vital to stop the russians logistics capability this way. I also expect that there will not be one single push through the russian front line, but many different, after each other, to confuse and deflect attention from a later, large attack. I don’t think there will just one big attack, which will be too easy to defend against.

thanks for showing the possible plans.

What a weak breakdown. Would have loved to see him discuss the actual logistics. They have 12 western trained and equipped brigades. How many brigades to actually pull something like this off? What are the challenges of an amphibious assault? Also good luck trying to break through Donetsk. Mariupol and Bakhmut are cities that aren’t even close to the size of Donetsk. It’s the most fortified piece of the line. What a joke of a breakdown

Russia is probably expecting the main spearhead to approach from Kherson I think in anticipation of this they are fortifying position however I still think Ukrainians will is much stronger and they are able to punch thru, I feel that a counter offensive should come from 2 points to confuse them and instill fear of encirclement so from zaphorizia and Kherson would be my guess

The first victim in a war: the truth

*Simple fact, The ground is too muddy and Heavy Equipment can't move yet.*

What counteroffensive ? Meat grinder worked a treat

The usual tactic is to attack an enemy at the point that their logistics are most stretched and which your resupply is easiest. That tactic tends to emphasise Crimea and it would also allow Ukraine if successful, to control its exports by sea. Combined with the reputation blow to Russia the instability that would come about in the Kremlin would be a huge disadvantage to a regime that is increasingly fragile.

I think it wrong to specify one area rather this counteroffensive will be over a broad front. 13 brigades as mechanized infantry has only a few viable routes that can take place. Kherson will be uniquely difficult as the Dnipro presents its own difficulties but could be a key shaping counter offensive where a more specialized unit to this terrain can keep Russia guessing and on their toes but will not be the main offensive. Looking at Zaporizhia area presents its own problems as the vast defensive net work built here by Russia is a difficult ask but can be done however at a large cost of human lives and machinery. One would think a pestering attack here as well to keep Russian forces pinned but not the main offensive. We are already seeing the offensives main objective in my mind taking place. Letting Russia take Bakhmut allows for their best fighting capability units to be exhausted and easily overrun with proper troop movement as we see now. Knocking out flanks in route to cutting off the Russians along this front can be a pivotal point in the counter offensive. If Ukraine can take Soledar then forcing Russia out of Bakhmut then can turn their eyes north to Severodonetsk and push from Lyman as well cutting Russian forces and supply routes forcing a withdrawal from the area by RU. Or turning south which is what I think is crucial in taking or cutting off Luhansk, Donetsk and then further south liberating Mariupol, Melitipol and so on to Crimea. Just remember 13 mechanized brigades is a lot of manpower to be used in one area alone. This will be a longer counteroffensive playing into the losses of Russian supply routes, forcing tactical withdrawals by RU and wearing down their morale over and over resulting in poor military capability by RU.

Unfortunately the analysis of this video by history legend and weeb union was taken down, that video was very good in counter argument most of the things this general says...

Peace talks. Pray for peace.

At the height of Wirld War II, with 13 million men and women in uniform, there were 7 four generals. Now there are over forty. This is the pool these "former generals" are being drawn from.

Served in Bosnia, Kosovo and Iraq :D this man is a war criminal.

My thing is why announce for weeks/months you are planning a counter offensive? …. Why not catch the enemy off guard? …. Someone help me understand

manpower? no problem, just wake them up on the next round of the shoot. - Hollywood

3 and 4 is a no, this is not about sending messages but accomplish tactical gains that they can build on and that is all about separating the Russian held territory in 2 and make the south untenable for the Russians, at least as far as to the Crimea. So it is 1 or 2. Or both, but one will be a feint. Or not.

Now I know why the general is retired 😊

Seems they'll never run out of Desk Jocky Officers.

The general’s first would be a disaster. It’s exactly where the Russians expect it and where they’re most well prepared. I think he must be out of touch.

My 2 cents as an armchair general: if I were Zaluzhny I would focus on sealing the Russian border to encircle existing Russian forces and prevent more from coming in. This means that Crimea is not really critical: Russians can reinforce it through the Kerch bridge, but when you check the north of Crimea it's full of marshes (Syvash), so it's easier to defend, harder to attack, but the Russians would also have a hard time mounting attacks from there, it's basically easier to cut off the mainland, both for the attacker and the defender. Ukrainians should focus on taking the Donbas through a two-prongs pincer movement, one from the north along the border towards Tchertkovo and then down towards Luhansk, and another one from the south, south of Donetsk towards the east-south-east and then up towards Luhansk as well. This would be the main theater of operations. Meanwhile, a third smaller force would be only tasked with blocking the Russians forces in Zaporizhia region from attacking the flank of the southern prong. Ideally, the Kerch bridge would also be destroyed at the same time, to make sure Russian forces in Zaporizhia and Crimea are contained and not reinforced for now. The destruction of the Kerch bridge, the Syvash natural barrier and the Azov sea provide a seal on this side. Once large Russian troops are encircled and the land border between Donbas and Russia is sealed, then it will be time for a new offensive to split Crimea and Zaporizhia region and encircle Russian troops there. Finally, Crimea can be retaken by force or more likely through negociation at that point. Of course nobody knows the plans of the Ukrainian general staff but this strategy would make sense I think. What are your thoughts?

I agree with this guy that the most likely route is Kherson due to the following reasons. 1 - The Russians wouldn't expect it. 2 - It has the least risk of getting encircled since one side is the Black Sea already. 3 - They will have the Kerch bridge well within destroying distance and will have the ability to cut off the millions of Crimeans. 4 - They have the equipment to do river crossing, and they already have reconnaissance units on the other side of Dniper.

🤔💭🗺 It's intriguing to see differing perspectives on the likely scenarios of a counteroffensive. While Sir Richard suggests an attack from Kherson, you raise a valid point regarding the challenges of crossing the Dnipro in large numbers. The choice of strategy and potential risks in military operations always sparks intense debate. Exploring alternative scenarios like the one you mentioned, from Zaporizhia to Melitopol, could provide valuable insights into different tactical approaches. Let's continue the discussion and delve deeper into the complexities of these possible counteroffensives. 🌍🔍🔬

Saying that option 3 to Mariupol does not cut the land bridge is bizarre. It doesn't matter if there are Russians in Melitopol connected to Crimea, the point is that none of them can be supplied overland by Russia. In fact, the more Russians you trap (you have to cut the Kerch bridge) the faster they run out of food and ammo. Lack of supply is why the Russians vacated Kherson without a fight. Attacking anywhere from Zaphorizia to Donetsk works as long as you make it to the Sea of Azov, and can hold it.

So the media has recently switched over from "Spring Offensive" they've used for the past six months, to "Counteroffensive"?? Makes sense; they've covered themselves in case it starts in Summer, Fall, Winter, 2024, 2124...

Option #2 looks interesting. A mechanized force can move quickly there. But Option #1 if that is the only way to take out Kerch Straight Bridge. Either way, cutting off Crimea is every at least as good as getting close to the northern border.

The public is beginning to tire of this kind of propaganda.

Monkey wrench. What if Russia starts a massive offensive before Ukraine's counter offensive. Russia still has an air force

4 pipe dreams

..and no one notices the symbols on the Ukie tanks, or pretend not to. Or, maybe they just aren't trying to hide it anymore.

Madness !

Is this guy supposed to be general? Attack over the Dnieper and put your back to the river? Very smart.

There is too much mud in the spring, too much dust in the summer, too many leaves in the fall, too much snow in the winter, but yes, the "spring offensive" will start any day now.

I have always said that the route that makes the most sense and results in the greatest amount of strategic gains is from Zaporhirhia down to Berdyanks on the Azov Sea, with vectors of attack splitting ,one to the east of Tokmak and one to the west

ah, the permanently postponed "spring counteroffensive" that offends you and me

Hi WSJ. Would you publish the unedited interview with the Brig Gen? I'm more interested in his opinion than your reporters perspective (no offense). Thanks!

There are no good options for attack. But you are ordered to attack, or you will lose Western support What to do?

I still think they should do the counteroffensive next year. Not enough tanks, other armoured vehicles and antiaircraft weapons. Just not enough.

7:32 Look at that cross

You should say the terrorist, instead of saying ‘Russia’.

Love these fiction uploads from WSJ

This is the first counteroffensive in the world's history which is no secret 😂😂😂

How can you call it a stalemate when an offensive is coming? It don't make sense.

excellent

Maybe these plans of the General are the same the Americans used in Afghanistan 😂😂😂

Let's post our strategy on RU-vid WHAT A FREAKING AWESOME IDEA!

I say let option 3 be a feint while applying the full thrust at the Kherson axis ... sort of like Dieppe and Normandy

Hasn’t it arrived yet have been waiting for it for a long time now

The levels of delusion and fantasy is incredible.

One scenario is missing, if exclude continuation of the present deadlock as a scenario. It is the scenario that Ukraine crosses the border with Russia to occupy a part of Russia. Strategic aims: bring the war to Russia; Create a negotiation position; disturb the Russian supply lines. It is known that Ukranian army has thought about it and to some extent thinks it is a feasible option. Biggest drawback would be it risks losing its western support.

Ya just saw the counteroffensive near where they got man handled xD

I thought they started the counter offensive last week and/or last month.....and the month before?

With option #1, Ukraine can also once again cut off the flow of fresh water into the Crimea region. This will destroy Russia's attempts to farm it and limit the number of people/soldiers who can remain there. Russia couldn't easily resupply the Crimea area so there wouldn't be a push of Russian forces from there. If they did, that would be stupid. So it should create a somewhat stable southern flank for their operation. With the other attacks, Ukraine forces could be in danger of encirclement by greater numbers unless they push in a large front like last year's northern operation. If Ukraine has the forces available, I would probe on two of those avenues and capitalize on whatever was proving to be the most successful. So that the second probing action could somewhat assist the first. This also has the outside chance of collapsing the entire Russian invasion force into a general route. Slim chance, yes, but Russian ammo and equipment are near a breaking point and the morale of their forces is also quite low. The 2022 Spring conscripts time of service is currently ending and that is completed by mid-July. So somewhat veterans on the line are being replaced by green troops. Russia is poor at training and poor at passing on learned experience so now between mid-July is the best time to assault.

Ukraine's own March to the Sea will be one to remembered for the ages, just like Sherman's.

Option 4 seems the most likely option. Though that would be the second attack. The first attack I am not sure where it is going to come from. Somewhere the Russians least suspect. So perhaps actual Russian territory near where the Luhansk operation would start. Draw forces away and then push through.

Think the good old one two punch is going to happen. Hit then some were they have to react. Then go for your true goal.

Attacking from Kherson makes very little sense as the Dnipro is too great an obstacle. It can only act as a supplementary vector of attack.

Regardless of the options, they are eating into their time for the attack. While I understand their need to conserve their forces, there comes a time when you have to commit with the army you have, not the army you want to have.

Very interesting, but I kinda wonder if we shouldn't be talking about this stuff publicly just yet?

7:31 wait a second

If they cut the land bridge and then expand the corridor while using Storm Shadow to knock out the Kerch Bridge it would leave the Russians with 2 choices, starve or surrender. Slava Ukraine!

He never saw the possibilities of Russia coming first 😂

Love these updates 👍🤟💥☕

Why would they bother to retake Mariupol, it is ruined.

Wait.. Poor performance and holding 17% of land..? hmmm

This war was produced and directed in Washington

Please, please not the total loss in Afghanistan repeated in Ukraine. These losing American generals should be punished and not be paid for giving nonsensical analysis

The first two seems likely cause they're easier to understand 🤔

Here is a scenario that works : stop policing the world and deal with internal affairs, Yankee go home.

The joke started in the first few seconds of the video. 🤣😂🤣

He is cautious because he knows it's impossible for the Ukr to recapture any of the taken lands leave alone holding it,

3:35 "battle tanks" - shows a SPG.

It's pretty obvious that the first goal needs to be to cut the Russian supply train going down to the South. That's a lot of battle line to choose from. It looks to me like the Russians are going to hit around Sumy when Ukraine starts moving a lot of troops into the South.

I do not want to pay to rebuild Ukraine. The spending will never end.

Ukraine has lost 7x more troops than Russia

If this is a scenario breakdown, then it is a shallow one

You know the IQ of WSJ audience. LOL.

I don't think a counteroffensive towards the east, close to the Russian border, toward the Donbass, would be the best option, even though Ukrainians reach the sea of Azov (hypotheses 2, 3 and 4). Over all of its territory, these parts, however Ukrainian, are relatively the most pro-russian. Back in 2014, Donbass made secession from Ukraine, highly supported by the Kremlin but also by a slight mood in population. At first, the biggest effect of a potential reconquista would on the most pro-Ukrainian lands, near Kherson and above the Crimean peninsula (1st hypothesis in the video). Behind the military aspect, such success would have a much better consensual impact than going straight forwardly on the Donbass troubled waters. If Kiiv makes Donbass its priority, it may add an unnecessary oil on the fire, causing future domestic problems for sure. It could mean for later for the Donbass Ukrainian population that the national central state isn't up to negotiate with the mix-feelings region and would not hesitate to bring the army to break up any contestation. That's why I would definitely support the 1st hypothesis

I don’t need to mention that Russian undefeatable shovel still plays a big part in their successful ground operations. NATO armament vs. mighty shovels

Been hearing about this "coutneroffensive" for nearly a year now, and it never seems to happen.

Russia's comparatively poor performance? Russia is fighting an army armed by US and Europe while being heavily sanctioned and yet they are doing better than America, which had to withdraw from backwoods Afghanistan, while their European vassals retreated because they couldn't sustain an occupying invasion without their master's war chest.

Bakhmuth is lost ! Glory to mother Russia 🇷🇺🤝🇮🇳

Ukraine can only mount an unconditional surrender attack.🤣🤣🤣