I use FSD every day. Interventionless commutes are becoming routine. Bonus points: I applied white duct tape to my garage floor and now my Model 3 recognizes it as a parking spot and autoparks.
@@urgetodrive zoom out, look at the trend. 2 years ago FSD was unuseable.... now its so good I can uber people around and they have no idea the car is doing 100% of the driving. This is going to save millions of lives. 1 million people die on roads every year
I agree, but I believe the most significant impact will be on real estate. As autonomous vehicles become prevalent, people will have the option to live farther from city centers, potentially reducing demand for inner-city properties. If employees only need to commute to the office once or twice a week, spending an hour each way in a self-driving car while working or relaxing becomes much more feasible. This shift could reshape urban and suburban landscapes, altering property values and community structures.
Office based work will continue to decline and remote based technologies make people more efficient and allows work/life flexibility. Once you enjoy a remote work environment, it's really tough to go back in the office. That's even less need for cars.
Yeah, I think we could do fully solar super low speed always moving around never needing a fix point on earth domicile. Seeing the world within your lifetime, not having to commute from point to point as long as governments are willing to change the way we manage people in borders. Which I believe they will not be.
The pipe dream is that there will be robotaxis all over the place. The reality is the number of streets are limited in major cities around the world, forcing the cities to regulate the number of robotaxis they will allow. It’s to avoid total congestion ! 😊😊😊
That's nonsense. Of course the "number of streets are limited". No shit. Cities won't have much say in how many robotaxis can operate; the states do the driving regulation. The only thing that will stop robotaxis from prolifierating is if they crash too much.
The pipe dream is that in 5 yes no one will just keep driving the cars they already own, and 28 trillion will go to taxis. 😅 I mean i hold hundreds of shares, inwant to believe, but c’mon.
What data are you using for FSD? There is no unmanned FSD in use currently, it is always with a person overseeing it. Are you saying there is an average of 3200 miles between interventions (that would have been an accident) or 3200 miles between accidents while a person + FSD is driving?
TASHA!!! I would like to pre-thank you for helping to make me wealthy. This thorough and well-reasoned analysis is completely part of my investment thesis at this point.
Airlines and hotels in the middle of nowhere are done. Any flight route under 750 miles will be gone. Any hotel not in a city or at a tourist attraction will die
I’ve driven to Florida from Los Angeles multiple times. That’s well over 2000 miles. I wish I had FSD then. I can’t wait to drive cross country with FSD!
@@heisferdy on one leg of the road trip I did 800 mi over a 16 hour stretch with four super charger stops. FSD significantly reduces fatigue and I could not of safely handled that drive without it.
I actually think the initial pricing of robotaxi will be fairly low, because the gap between what it's worth to people and what they're paying for it will feed positive sentiment, which will be important as it helps pave the way for approval. In this case, demand will be very high, so it makes sense to go city by city to avoid long wait times. It will make a big splash and make big news every time it enters a new market and then people in other cities will be wanting it. And for the jobs it displaces, rather than being death by a thousand paper cuts, it will all happen at once in the environment of general public positive sentiment. It also reduces the risk of legislation being made at a large scale against it.
Yo, 28 TRILLION, w a T??? Lady, in 2030, most people will still own cars they will still be driving, Most families spend between $200 and $0 a year. This model is pure insanity.
"Data is really king OR queen here". Thank goodness she phrased it like that. I would have been exceptionally offended and needed a safe space if she only mentioned "king".
No, Tesla hasn't pushed back their unveiling. There was an independent report that Tesla will delay revealing one or more prototypes. If true -- which it may not be -- this may or may not cause Tesla to delay their August event or to show less at the August event than they'd originally planned.
@@bigdream_dreambig Tesla is delaying the launch of robotaxi by about two months to October as the design team was told to rework some elements of the car, Bloomberg News reported on Thursday, citing people familiar with the decision. - Reuters
Assuming you mean Tesla's event: no, although there's speculation that it might be. There was an independent report that Tesla will delay revealing one or more prototypes. If true (which it may not be), this may or may not cause Tesla to delay their August event or to show less at that event than they'd originally planned. But there has been no new news directly from Tesla or Elon Musk as of yet.
Pretty accurate for the most part, I'd say, my calculations for the Tesla Robotaxi make it profitable even at a price of only 20 Cents/mile though. Should be roughly 5k a year after expenses in about 10-15 years from now. Only the first 3-5 years will be massively profitable because of lack of competition.
Tasha, do you think Tesla needs to release FSD (supervised) for free to their entire install base in order to accelerate the AI training even faster? I think Tesla's strategy should be - if customers are willing to participate in training FSD AI, they should capitalize on this opportunity by offering it free to everyone and that the real monetization should be on driverless or FSD (Unsupervised) - like you say for Robotaxis - or even as far as offering it for driverless commercial transport (like driverless semi-trucks).
I'm on the same page but let's be real about the FSD data saying it's safer than human drivers. This is only because you have to pay such close attention to it at all times. I say this as an investor and frequent user of FSD
3:54. Emissions contribute to 10,000 deaths per year in the US? I'm all in on EVs, but as this stat is being used as an argument in favor of increasing rate of EV adoption, can you provide a link to data that supports this claim? Thanks!
You, Miss … are a rock star. You are the other reason I value Cathy Wood’s ARK. Amazing work. Keep it up. So impressive. Tesla is the future. And I believe this is a good thing for more than just ROI. Thank you and ARK for the work you do. Superb
Incidentally Elon came out and delayed the Robotaxi unveiling till October... tanked the stock. Why put these deadlines that you know might not actually happen... wrecked a few folks.
Elon is a hype machine. He's human cotton candy. I used to be a huge fan and believed in what he was trying to do. Turns out he's not what I thought. He's self-serving and is only interested in being seen as the world's most important human. I don't trust any data coming from Tesla. They twist it and flat out lie. Tesla stock will be under $20/share probably within the next two to three years.
this stuff is harder than even Elon thinks. The first mover mote will be wide. In 5 years, no one will buy a car without full self driving capability. Ford and GM will be forced to buy the tech, increasing their costs and increasing profits for the first mover. This is a huge investment opportunity.
I'm a bull on Robotaxi and TSLA, but I see it a little differently (but I'm just a dude playing a dude who nobody knows, and not an ARK analyst) 1. The overall effect of Robotaxis should be lower the Total GDP attributed to Transportation 2. This differs from iPhone and Computers which created new "human Activities". People are not suddenly going to want to start taking taxis all over creation just because they are Cheap While I am a dreamer and fully believe the Joy is in the Journey, most people aren't interested in riding around for the sake of riding around. People aren't suddenly going to want to spend all their time riding around in taxis. They have places to be and once they are there, they're happy. Robotaxis will Replace current transportation, not create some new NEED (as opposed to the iPhone which created many new NEEDS). Even if it DOUBLES demand for Transportation, you don't get to $27T in corporate value (unless that is a cumulative number over many years, but certainly not by 2030). That's like every single penny in US GDP turning into a transportation related product.
mostly agree. not necessarily new needs, but new WANTS. e.g. if you make cookies in your house, you can now have ur own car in your garage do auto-deliveries in your neighbourhood. You could have like autonomous "stores" that come to your house. I remember when i was a kid in Dubai, we used to have bakery vans drive by with fresh bread similar to an ice cream truck. there is possibly new use-cases that we're not used to seeing. but i agree that any given human would not be interested in being in the car more than they already do.
@@EvilTigerPaw good points. Definitely bigger opportunities for autonomously moving stuff. A lot of that wouldn’t need a full sized robotaxi. Smaller, more purpose built autonomous vehicles may be more common on the roads than people movers.
@johnanon658 Tell everyone that you've never seen the historical World GDP chart without saying that! DYODD doesn't mean fall asleep and wake-up thinking ya know anything!
but the point is not that autonomated cars would kill less than human driven cars... the point is that if they do (and will still do), who's gonna take responsibility over it ? the company that produces them or those who own them ? If it's the company, they will be too expensive to be sellable, if it's the owner..... well, who would ever chose to own them ?
This is tech that's got to be PERFECT. I have a nice proven MacBook...and it makes mistakes sometimes...and it's proven tech over many years. How do we know they can get to Level 5? Elon recently bragged that it will get down to 1 intervention per year. That's not good enough. I'm banking my retirement on this.
AI has always had a long tail problem, that's why we have had so many AI summers and winters. Everytime we make a breakthrough people project out and imagine the problem is solved, but the horizon just moves further out. Self driving as well as AGI is a very difficult problem in such a complex environment, self driving is even more complex than AGI because it has safety critical aspects. So it just needs a few cars to kill or injure a few people for the whole industry to sour for 5 years. This investment has got to be a meme or have a risk profile like bitcoin.
Hope normal human civilization makes it a little past 2030. The way fossil fuels, animal agriculture is expanding still means a less stable climate with a more troubled economy.
So pre planned point to point trips are all that cars are used for? I don't think so. Taxis with or without a driver are already available and is a known and finite market. There are no trillions to be had and robo taxies won't even pay back the amount of investment already spent. It's just public transportation and we already know how popular that is.
On the dot! You are hitting the nail on the head, and since it is still not penetrating the heads of the Wall Street analysts or the legacy automakers, we still have time to get in and build a stockpile (pun not intended!) and wait for the tide to hit the roof !! 🤷♂
Yes, which is another reason Musk believes underground freeways will be necessary in urban areas. The good news is, there will be less need for parking, so many parking garages will be replaced/converted to other uses.
Wow what a progressive comment, you’ve really added to what she has to say. We are all pleased that you approve of how this intelligent and confident woman looks. Congratulations.
The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) is down 6% over the past 5 years while the S&P500 is UP 86.16% and the Nasdaq is UP 123% over the same 5 year period. Cathie Wood has FAILED big time! ARK Invest has destroyed 14 billion dollars of wealth over the past decade based on a report by Morningstar!
Hello there Tintin, Just a reminder that: If your false is true then true is false, then we live in an world of opposites so you really just said True. Which I must agree with.
We believe ... We expect... based on what? Do you have AI experts in your team to even make such speculation? Anyone can make such claims. This is nothing more than speculation. I've been working in AI industry for 25 years, and this iteration of hype is nothing special. There is no theoretical breakthrough, but just advances in hardware makes brute force machine learning possible. But it's not even close to full autonomy and won't be for at least 10 - 20 years unless there is suddenly a theoretical breakthrough from the traditional neural net models. We will likely see another AI winter before the real breakthrough.
Imagine telling someone to hold their hand up and flag a taxi - they will look at you crazy and schedule an Uber on their phone. In 15 years, if you tell someone to buy a car for personal transport - they will look at you crazy as their AI scheduled antonymous car picks them up.
$0.25 per mile is a bit too low and not happen . $0.5 is realistic and that is usage of 2-3h day mostly rushours my model is based real service data of similar services Bolt drive and Citybee in Tallinn area. Those cars ride quite rushhours only. Those ICE cars are 2x lower the price of model 3 + FSD and capital cost is the key. When I see non FSD rental car every morning in 1 minute walk then point of having FSD is not so big anymore. Currently in Tallinn area those rides are more than 10 % and the fleet is 5% of total passanger car fleet. That means at my area every house has 1-3 cars and in average when you look at the street then 5-6 house away is rental car 7am but now is 10am and car is3minute away next is 10.
I'm curious about the poor performance of all the funds managed by Ark Invest. I'm wondering, why don't we just invest in Tesla instead? Will investing in Ark's ETFs actually generate higher returns in the future?
@@ByronBennett that is like 70% of the day riding thru the city. If people living outside of thr cities will use it - can add up pretty fast. But even when you cut it in half - still good. It's a write off, free transport and part time job for you.