I stated that 3 weeks ago on this channel -- I was one of the few that predicted the Rubble Collapse over a year ago -- and more importantly, it would consolidate around 90 to the USD (British Ounce has been in long-term decline since 2008) for about 9 months from Putin's price controls before its top to 120 to 130 to USD -- I actually have a big position in Options (in Yuan) and put my money where my mouth is -- could be wrong, but it looks good so far.
I thought we agreed some time ago that the Rubble isn't even a currency any longer since no other country will accept it as payment. It's basically a monopoly money script used internally in Russia.
@@muckle8When they start printing 100 million Rubel coins even Russians will understand they need to do as their grandparents did to feed their kids: grow potatos along the mud roads.
Russians have a history of being easily dominated by tyrants who have millions of people die for their imperialism. They have the greatest land mass but as a whole Russia is Moscow and scattered enclaves of people who live a hard life so the government is just the same thing they don't care but agree so they can go on drinking.
The Russians of today were born in an environment that doesn't really incentivize political competence. If anything, they've grown up being told to shut up and not ruffle any feathers.
To be exact Generalisimus putin made russia totaly bankrupt anyone wonder how russia will look a like 5 years from now? Take look on Iran,Venezuela or N.Korea LOL
Especially so in UK. It costs £12 for a pack of 16 rolls of Andrex toilet paper which is about $15 or 1450 rub Russians pay about 616 rub in Moscow for 16 rolls of toilet paper. Who's getting robbed most, me you or Russians?
@@Fractal369 uh, how’s the quality of that toilet paper in russia? Andrex is overpriced, if you’re comparing that to the cheapest Russian brand you’re being deliberately misleading. Which is all you people know, eh, Boris?
@echotango4591 all I was trying to do was suggest we all need to spend time researching the answers to those questions. Some European countries do not use much toilet paper, they use bidets Joe Blogs has tunnel vision and can not see the forest because of the trees. What is BRICS mission objective? Why does Joe Blogs never mention Russia does most of its foreign trade in yuan now? Or explain why? This yt channel is Joe Bidenomics Show, the world is turning their backs on Americas evil deviousness deceit and unfair business practises. America will soon be the most sanctioned nation on earth.
The first toilet paper factory in the USSR was built in 1969. Making poor economic decisions that are to the detriment of its people is a hallmark of the USSR.
@Neptune151 Indeed, but he claims he says that he wants to re-build the Soviet Union. I suspect that it's a way of getting the old communists on side. In the same way that he has managed to get some on the western left to support him. He has got both western left and the right, i.e., Trump, La Pen, Farage, etc.'working' for him. What he wants is the territory that the Soviet Union controlled and the power, and as he sees it the prestige, it brings him.
Η ΟΥΚΡΑΝΙΑ ΗΤΑΝ ΠΑΝΤΑ ΡΩΣΙΑ. ΟΙ ΓΙΟΙ ΤΗς ΣΚΥΛΑς ΑΜΕΡΙΚΑΝΟΙ ΠΟΛΙΤΙΚΟΙ ΔΕΝ ΣΕΒΑΣΤΗΚΑΝ ΠΟΤΕ ΤΗΝ ΥΠΟΓΡΑΦΗ ΤΟΥς ΔΙΟΤΙ ΕΙΝΑΙ ΜΠΑΣΤΑΡΔΟΙ . Ο ΠΟΥΤΙΣ ΣΑΣ ΕΧΕΙ ΠΗΔΗΣΕΙ ΚΑΙ ΕΣΕΙΣ ΖΑΛΙΣΜΕΝΟΙ ΟΝΕΙΡΕΥΕΣΤΕ ΜΕ ΑΔΕΛΦΕΣ ΗΓΕΤΕΣ ΝΑ ΝΙΚΗΣΕΤΕ...ΚΟΙΤΑΤΕ ΤΗΝ ΡΩΣΙΑ ΤΗΝ ΚΙΝΑ ΤΗΝ ΙΝΔΙΑ ΤΗΝ ΒΡΑΖΙΛΙΑ ΤΗΝ ΝΟΤΙΑ ΑΦΡΙΚΗ ......ΕΡΧΕΤΑΙ ...
@@Vidar33When you visit Zimbabwe, you think you’re rich. £1,000,000 Zimbabwean dollar notes exist. It’s only when you try to exchange it back to your country’s currency you realise £1,000,000 Zimbabwe dollars is actually only worth £1 lmao.
You do very good work, Joe. And your production style is just perfect. You inform with insight in a casual yet focused way. Yours is one pf my favorite channels.
Thanks Joe. The published exchange rate is not real anyway because the ruble is not traded in a completely free market, and the limited market in which it is traded is getting smaller as remaining trade partners will try to trade in other non-Western currencies. The real ruble rate on the street may be different (worse). As you point out, a war economy leads to inflation. The state pumps money into the economy (from liquidating investments, from raised taxes and possibly from borrowing), and productive capacity is shifted to military spending while labour resources are shifted to the military and to war production. Consumer products cost more to produce and are also in more demand. This fuels a wage-price spiral. If you were in Russia, would you want to hold cash or investments in rubles? Kremlin policy and Central Bank policy are contradictory so the Central Bank is swimming against the tide of state policy. The fact that the Kremlin is reducing available economic data tells us something. I expect that the Kremlin will try to control wages and prices, which will not succeed of course.
@@TrevorCrook-c1s Correction: Ukraine *admits* it spends 40% on war whilst Russia *claims* it spends 6%. If you still believe a single word from Kremlin, I have a bridge to sell you.
@@muckle8 Putin Chose this invasion in lieu of diplomatic solutions both in Feb of 2022 and in 2014. Putin continued this war. Putin could stop this war at any time by leaving Ukraine. No Putin Chose this, and the blame is on his shoulders.
I number of years ago we took the train from Moscow to Warsaw. My wife had some rubles she had forgotten to exchange in Russia. In Poland we received half as many dollars as the stated rate in Russia. I suspect the situation today is even worse, and the nominal rate is fictional. The ruble is the new East German mark; only useable in the country that printed them.
Russia has largely restored the sovereignty of the ruble because Russia can stimulate or contract its economy without having the links with the non-ruble world retarding Russia's actions.
@@solconcordia4315 If by "sovereignty of the ruble" you mean lack of interchangeability with other currencies, yes. Russia ranks between Canada and Mexico as to nominal GDP. In terms of per capita GDP, it is pitiful ranking behind Kazakhstan.
Also oil refineries blowing up. And the drain on manpower is threefold. Fewer troops to fight in the war, no men to keep the machines running back home, and no potential husbands to come home and start new families. They were already in a severe demographic manpower shortage before the war. Now they're hopelessly screwed.
The Russians still have some cash, but they no longer have any more wiggle room in terms of interest rate. We should see a significant increase in withdrawal of Russia’s national wealth fund by December. Historically (2022 and 2023) was about 20-25 billion USD.
I recently watched a video about micro-economics in Russia. As an example, he looked at parts for agricultural equipment, or rather their lack of availability. Farmers are harvesting crops now, or will be shortly. In addition to the lack of parts availability, they are being hit with higher fuel costs and a shortage of labor due to the war in Ukraine. Kursk is also one of the more productive farming areas and there has been wide scale evacuation there. What happens when all of these economic inputs hit food prices in a few months? It, in addition to the exchange rate of the rubel and increased fuel prices, will also have an impact on the profitability of things like Russian grain exports. Not all is well with the Russian economy and there is no light on the horizon. It's only going to get worse.
I am sorry for the :Just Folks" like myself. For the people like me life is already challenging here in the States. I cant imagine what is must be like for the "Just Folks" in Russia.
@@dawnsalois Like past tyrants in Russia, Putin could care less about the people in Russia and only his own power. The only question is whether his reign will survive the economic collapse that is coming. People can't eat tanks.
People can eat what their weapons can help them get. The early colonists of Columbia carried guns and ammunition. They were even more important than large amount of food supplies.
The real issue is that even these values are unavailable to ordinary russian citizens. The "real" exchange rate is apparently over 160:1 and is a thin market at that.
I stated that 3 weeks ago on this channel -- I was one of the few that predicted the Rubble Collapse over a year ago -- and more importantly, it would consolidate around 90 to the USD (British Ounce has been in long-term decline since 2008) for about 9 months from Putin's price controls before it possibly blows it top to 120 to 130 to USD (look at the pressure and volatility the last month) -- I actually have a big position in Options (in Yuan) and put my money where my mouth is -- could be wrong, but it looks good so far.
@@M1903a4 What's wrong about that direction? FYI I just had to exchange 2K USD for rouble the best rate I could possibly find was around 81 rub per USD. Why do you think it's like that? Does it seem like a fair rate to you or not?
@@M1903a4 I have no idea. I only need some roubles since I'll have to visit Russia for a week, then return to Thailand. But that's not relevant... The point here is that you can't judge currency value by looking at the conversion rate one way only. ALL it tells you is that due to complications in currency trading for the trouble, both buy and sell value are highly off, because it's a very inconvenient exchange for money changers and you pay very high fee to compensate for that inconvenience when trading like that. But it has nothing to do with the value of the rouble itself
18% interest is crazy, if You do the math. It does not matter, if Your loan term is 15, 20 or 25 years - monthly payments stays the same, so even refinancing will not save You.
well, at least russia doesn't have 5 000 000 homeless and 5000 000 heavy drug addicts. ib 5 years you will be able to buz 1 dollar for 1 rubel. the petrodollar is history and with that the USA is going from the greatest warship to a led boat in 5 to 10 years tops
What you have in Russia is essentially a Confederate currency, such as what the South issued during the Civil War. It is backed by an ever-shrinking amount of hard assets such as gold; however, Vladdy Poontang has been flying planeloads to nations it trades with to settle its foreign purchases. As the gold pile shrinks, so does the value of the Confederate currency. This is tremendously illustrative of why a currency backed by gold makes no sense, while a fiat currency based on your nation's productive output is so much more flexible. Anyway, the ruble is almost certainly headed for hyperinflation, and that's when things get scary. That's because once your currency is worthless in the eyes of your own citizens, the only thing you have left to trade on is your war-making ability. For the Russians, that means nukes. There is going to be at least "some" discussion in Moscow about strengthening its hand by demonstrating its willingness to drag down the rest of civilization along with Russia. Imagine the crazy ex-husband who kidnaps his family at gunpoint.
Odds are that Putin can have a pretty comfortable life in Russia until he dies of natural causes. UNLESS he does something REALLY DUMB such as uses nukes. I don't think he will. As a matter of fact, I believe that nukes scare the crap out of him. He is a product of the cold war and understands the how nukes should be used. (=As a deterrent, not as actual weapons.)
@indrid your forgetting about Russian oil products (ROP) uranium, fertiliser, wheat and a myriad of other products all craved and relied upon by the rest of the world.
@@muckle8 No modern country is getting wealthy by exporting raw materials (alone). Even if Russia is making some money by exporting some raw materials, it won't be nearly enough to sustain or develop the Russian economy. Imagine the US basing its economy on grain or fertilizer exports? Doesn't that sound laughable? It does and it is laughable for any serious country.
It takes a world-wide accepted foreign currency for the Bank of Russia to buy up excess Rubles and prop up the Ruble's value. With sanctions, that means their foreign reserves are exhausted over time. Like many autocratic regimes, an arbitrary fix rate of exchange is financial fantasy. If no one wants the limited non-oil products they produce and sanctions block the export of those limited products, then a 1,000:1 or 1:1 Ruble vs USD/Euro/Yuan conversion rate is meaningless. At the present time, I seriously doubt that anybody, except for African mercenaries and Cuban merchants, hold large quantities of Rubles outside of Russia. If Russia is 'running out of cash' with plenty of Rubles in circulation, then the Moscow regime is like a casino facing bankruptcy and the value of their gaming chips is worthless.
You're totally right. And I dont think foreign trade transactions of the BRICKS will be in Ruble or Yuan even if Cuban & African reserves will be used knowing that the Kremlin & CCP are conducting business under the bunker.
Even the Swiss central bank failed to peg their exchange rate - the idea that puny Russia could achieve this was delusional. The only reason they've held out so long is because demand is so low. After all, what could you buy with Roubles?
@@carlosbond5062 That's been the problem all along - no-one dares speak truth to power. If he'd listened to decent advice, he wouldn't have gone into Ukraine in the first place. He honestly believed the troops would be welcomed with garlands and cheering crowds...
You spoil us Joe! I've digested a plethora of macroeconomic/markets oriented channels here on RU-vid over the years and the only two that I can still stomach are you and Adam Taggart. You get the very best and spot on facts and ask thought provoking and unbiased questions that help listeners like myself better understand the complex forces driving our world today. More importantly, thank you for recommending Abby Joseph Cohen Services my investment portfolio with her has been quite sustaining
I know this FA, Abby Joseph Cohen Services but only by her reputation at Goldman Sachs; even though she's now involved in managing portfolios and providing investmnt guidance to clients. I have been trying to get in contact since I watched her interview on WSJ last month
Same here, I got to know about Abby Joseph Cohen Services on here in 2020. Since then I've paid off 160,000 USD of debt. Now I'm working on building an emergency fund. I didn't even have a savings account three years ago.
@@DennisSoklovWell her name is 'ABBY JOSEPH COHEN SERVICES'. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
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Purttin is like Captain Hoook, listening to "Tic! Tac! Tic! Tac!", and making sure he keeps away from those dangerous architectonic death-traps called "windows".
Currency charts show the Ruble tanking until 12 months ago then remaining stable around that low value. I don’t see any dramatic change in recent weeks over and above the usual oscillations.
Most of my adult life, I've never really, properly understand economics.. .until now. I find myself listening, pausing and thinking of what you may say next. Not doing too badly!! Thank you JB!! 😊😊
The thing with collapses is they take time to get going, but once they do, nothing will stop it. Putin has committed Russia to decades of setback through his actions.
io non mi ritendo un asino ne in inglese ne in economia ... e per quanto concordi con lei che la spiegazione è davvero eccezionale e convincente, quello che non mi convince è che è da due anni e mezzo che la Russia doveva dichiarare bancarotta ... e invece ... gli effetti disastrosi di una inflazione che erode il potere d'acquista ce l'abbiamo noi in Europa ... altro che sanzioni ... siamo gli unici al mondo a sanzionare noi stessi ...
@@savinobasta2225 l'inflazione è alta ovunque e non è colpa della guerra della russia o meglio lo è ma in maniera marginale, basta con questa narrativa stucchevole
Joe keep these video going ! the tone is great ! the pace excellent and it’s very understandable !!! thanks a lot to make us understand more of the world economic movements !
There rates are only available to the central bank and affiliated institutions. For the common Russian person and small/medium size business owner, the actual purchase power of the Ruble is in many cases reported to be 50% lower than what the central bank deals with. This applies to export goods, foreign currency, stock market value, etc. For a long time people weren't even allowed to deal in the Ruble exchange whatsoever as forced by the central bank, to prevent an outright nation-wide collapse of the currency as a whole.
@@andymoore9977 And they will tell you that not much has changed for their lives. Meanwhile, Ukraine literally got downgraded after defaulting on their payments just recently, but sure, Russia is the one in financial trouble here. XD
And by the way, the rouble has not been worth the paper it is "printed" in since the War began, the value of a currency is you being able to exchange it for another currency and invest, and some Russian were doing that, up until the sanctions began to hit hard, and it only lasted this long to allow other countries to dump their roubles and avoid further economic damage. Nothing is done without an intention behind it, and we should all be aware of this.
I remember the USSR from the cold war while I was in the Navy for 20 years, from the 70s to the 90s and one day the USSR was there and the next day we thought it was gone forever. Guess not as this is an extension of that conflict. For the sake of humanity, Putin must be defeated and removed from power. Have no doubt, Putin's idea is actual world domination just as was Stalin's and rest of his crowd. He is incredibly dangerous as he has nukes, and nobody can be completely certain about his sanity or his grasp on reality.
Stuff will truly hit the fan when Russia's foreign reserves hit zero, and the central bank has nothing to buy rubles _with._ Will they start smuggling gold bars to China and India?
You are the economic genius and your explanation of this is very well to understanding economic statistics. Thanks for your hard work and keep them coming 😊😊
I like that you have got a following in economics. I get that most of us are over 50, but the young people will get interested when they have lived a bit.
Hilariously, Russia is willing to trade oil for yuan and rupees. Imagine buying oil with a currency you own and can print whenever. It's practically free. If China and India can get their act together, they can have their own petroyuan or petrorupee. However, Russia may not become like Saudi Arabia. This BRICS stuff has not been kind to Russia
@rockprime1136 nothing good ever came easy - BRICS+ is an unstoppable force and Russia is at its spearhead - this war in Ukraine is being fought over US dollar hegemony stranglehold -
it's only "wartime economy" if u win and were starting a campaign with clear goals in mind, otherwise what they are doing is like a kid hammering in nails with a rock, and then continuing to try the same for varyingly threaded screws
Yep, and how many trillions is US and UK in debt? How can dollar or pound currencies be described as "healthy"? Coz they know the tax dodges and benefits that are given to the rich through City of London?
@@Fractal369 you always have to put debt in relation to GDP and expected future. Talking aout nominal amounts (trillions) makes no sense but makes for good propaganda. China has a higher debt/GDP than the US if you combine private, public and off-balance debt.
@MultiMenvafan you seem to be missing the point being made. Russia uses yuan to ruble benchmark for trading so are actually not using ruble Think BRICS So the ruble is not crashing the way that is being presented in this video here which is misinformation due to malinformation. Just telling part of the story is very misleading. Propaganda. Russia and all the other fast growing list of countries in BRICS do not want to trade in dollar. They're own currencies have never been stronger, just not when compared to dollar exchange rates.
@MultiMenvafan As a percentage of GDP, Russia’s national debt has been steadily increasing, reaching 14.9% in 2023. The forecast suggests it will continue to rise, reaching 24.03% by 2029. The US national debt consists of two main components: debt held by the public and debt held by federal trust funds and other government accounts. The latter includes debt owed to Social Security, Medicare, and other government programs. The total national debt, including both components, is approximately 130% of GDP. As more and more countries are boycotting and sanctioning trade with US, the dollar will become weaker and weaker in currency exchange rates. How will US national debt be paid? By taxing US citizens more and more Even more so after another crash ....
I have a buddy that lives in Moscow and he said everything is going to hell. He said, things weren’t bad until the last few months. It sounds like the dominos are starting to fall. Putin better not stand near any windows. I have a feeling he has some people in his inner circle making plans that don’t involve him being around much longer.
I don't know. One would think that those "inner circle people" would have pushed Putin out of a window a long time ago already, if they were up to it. Doesn't look like there's any such brave people. Until there is. Just one is enough. But so far doesn't look like it.
@@BRH0587 well I don't live in a Moscow, but I do live in Russia. And things aren't going to hell. Is it good? Nope. But nothing that dramatic. Also Moscow is like last place that going to "collapse". They will bleed regions dry before something happens to Moscow.
Inflation is high in Russia, but salary is rising even faster. Russians feel financially well at the moment, but this will change very soon and suddenly. I have my popcorn ready!
The other issue is the government spending over the war they are waging. The payment to the soldiers alone is a huge expenditure, not to mention all the other spending over their wartime economy. This necessitates Russia to keep on printing money via debt borrowing. As long as this massive debt spending is going on, no amount of lending rate hike will temper the inflation.
I’m sorry, but poutine is the best cure for the blues I know. It’s also required at 3 am to soak up the copious amount of alcohol you’ve drunk in the disco in Montreal. (Sorry, couldn’t help it, proud Canuck here).
