🔥 Get FREE ACCESS to Real Vision rvtv.io/3MMeRfQ 00:00 - Sponsor: Token2049 event in Singapore 00:51 - Importance of subscribing and engaging with the channel 01:19 - Raoul Pal introduces his show "The Journeyman" 01:52 - Overview of Raoul Pal's "Everything Code" thesis 02:26 - Explanation of the debt refi cycle and liquidity's role 03:01 - Discussion with Mike Howell on liquidity 03:38 - Mike Howell's background and framework on liquidity 05:17 - Evolution of global liquidity concept 07:27 - Current liquidity frameworks and key metrics 10:39 - Dominance of liquidity in markets since the mid-2000s 12:13 - Correlation between global liquidity and market performance 15:11 - Importance of term premium and its impact on bond markets 17:14 - Liquidity's effect on P/E ratios and market dynamics 18:17 - Central banks' role in maintaining liquidity and managing debt 21:22 - Differentiating between monetary inflation and deflation crises 23:22 - The significance of debt refinancing in financial crises 25:38 - Various sources of liquidity in the US 27:39 - Treasury General Account and its impact on liquidity 28:42 - Discussion on the dollar milkshake theory and dollar strength 31:45 - China's role and challenges in the global liquidity landscape 33:52 - Janet Yellen's strategies to add liquidity 36:04 - Potential impact of Fannie Mae's changes on liquidity 39:28 - Challenges faced by China's economy and the need for liquidity 41:30 - Basel 4 and its implications for banks and bond markets 43:36 - Europe's green energy transition and its impact on liquidity 44:32 - Potential risks and opportunities in the French banking sector 45:00 - Likelihood of central banks using their balance sheets 46:38 - Forecast for the liquidity cycle in the next few years 50:44 - Prospects for risk assets in a sluggish economy 51:20 - Expected peak of the liquidity cycle and underlying trends 56:03 - Historical parallels with post-World War II debt cycles 57:01 - Necessity of liquidity for economic stability and growth 59:09 - Central banks' understanding of the global debt situation 1:00:05 - Importance of monitoring liquidity and potential future trends
Working with professionals who have expertise and experience in the market can provide valuable insights and guidance to navigate volatile times. Thanks alot for this insight.
Vanguard VTI. You can count on a net 9% with a reasonable standard deviation of 15 to 17%. Start early, be consistent and the miracle of compound growth will take over. Use time as the real basis of growth...it takes about 5 years.
It's also essential to conduct thorough research, consider the long-term outlook of the companies, and diversify your investments to manage risk effectively.
the problem is that most don't have the knowledge needed to succeed in a challenging market. Only highly qualified professionals who had to experience the 2008 financial crisis could hope to earn a high in these challenging conditions.
the strategies for diversification into other commodities are quite rigorous for the regular-Joe. As a matter of fact, they are mostly successfully carried out by pros who have had a great deal of skills and knowledge
Howell is the only person on RV who has been right about the market direction for the last 3-4yrs (Steno is another but with a bit lower accuracy). All other folks on RV are basically same as cramer.
Biggest lesson i've learnt in 2024 in the stock market is that nobody knows what is going to happen next, so practice some humility and follow a strategy with a long term edge.
Nobody knows anything; You need to create your own process, manage risk, and stick to the plan, through thick or thin, While also continuously learning from mistakes and improving.
There is knowledge and experience. Experience is linked to time. These two gents have bucket fulls of time in the game and therefore the experience gained is invaluable. Fantastic .
Start early with diversified investments in stocks, bonds, and real estate. Maximize contributions to tax-advantaged accounts like 401(k)s and IRAs. Regularly review and adjust your strategy to ensure security.
For clarity it’s not a “second mortgage” it’s an increase in Mortgage limit, which can be used and paid back at will…. If the USA does this it will be huge, furthermore most of EU does not allow this type of home equity redraw, if / when they do the amount of capital locked up in generational property is €tn’s it will fund entrepreneurship and will be enormous
If this guy is some sort of wise old wizard who can identify when to get long and when to take risk off based on liquidity, why is his firm's investment product still trailing an S&P500 index product like just about every other actively managed fund? People that are this sure of themselves are the dodgiest imo.
12m16s: Raoul asks Michael straight-up if [Michael] ever gets frustrated with the "mid-curvers" who claim global liquidity is bunk. Great question, Raoul! Loved Michael's response. Spot on.
Raoul, if this debt refi cycle has been there every 4-5 yrs for the last 100 years, why havent markets always one up forever? Look at the markets in 1940s, 50s, 60s, 70s, 200s....markets have 0 return for 10-15 years many times.....only after 2008 did we see a secular markets go up
As the FED and the Treasury change their approaches to injecting liquidity, it’s really helpful to understand the timing and what the alternatives will be. Thank you Raoul and Michael!
RIP all the people who bought this year instead of the last 2 years. You're all in serious pain, but the sun will rise again. If you put money into the market you don't need for the next 5 years, you're going to be fine. If you used money you need now, you shouldn't be investing at all. Fix your life.
Wrong. That makes no sense at all when the bull run mania phase is still ahead of us. A blind man can see that. So this is when people should be buying who haven’t yet or should be adding to their bags. Theres a lot of upside ahead of us. As Michael clearly shows and as Raoul has been saying for a while.
What id TGA and liquidity drags the greenback down, then the OIL price shoots up and inflation comes back? How that is going to affect the interest rate cuts? Also, what if before the liquidity shooting higher we get into a recession in the US with spillover effects across global economy? Also OECD YoY 3-month MA has started rolling down for China and other developed economies. M1 has started turning up on a YoY basis, but China hasn’t participated so far. China Total Social Financing also still hasn’t turned up. Is China waiting for the FED to cut to start stimulating?
More liquidity means monetary debasement as was mentioned. Which forces gold monetisation and a gold revaluation. That is the end of the USD as the global reserve currency. What is being implemented is capital controls and further deindustrialisation. A permanent recession if you will. This stops domestic claims on currency so governments can meet oversea obligations.
You have the “equity release” wrong, in Australia you can release equity on your primary home or investment property etc Ie if you have a home valued at $1m and your mortgage is $200k at 80% LTV you could release $600k if they do this in the USA it will allow people to fund business starts and other investments, it will be an avalanche of liquidity, most Australian small businesses and investments are levered against homes equity…. Its way bigger a move than you think, it will stimulate massive liquidity and growth
Driving me crazy, @Raoul. What can the governments do instead of debasing the currency? What does your family do? What do your businesses do? Spend less. Nobody else has the luxury of printing money to debase currency. So the rest of us do the responsible thing: e take our medicine, and we manage our spending. Then we debt snowball and pay it down.
Because people are not present. They watch, they listen, they love, they come back again and again and never subscribe! It’s literally a discipline. You like someone’s content? Always subscribe and before you start watching like the video. If you hate it, unlike and move on. If we don’t do this, these amazing channels die. That’s how it works!
Great video. There are always great insights but don't really do much better financially then before. Still entertaining to watch and great insights from the guests.
All this talk about debts owed by various governments has me very confused. Just WHO DO THEY OWE IT TO?! If its not repaid, who does the repossession?! Can't be any individual surely???????
What's the correlation, if any? (50:35) And if 'strong' correlation (what is strong, by the way?), which of the two is a leading indicator, with or without causality? It could be applicable information, regardless of causality, if only the correlation is strong enough.
MICHAEL HOWELL how can you say bitcoin is a hedge against inflation when it has performed HORRIBLY in 2022 and Gold performed horribly in 2022 AND 2021 clearly those two arent inflation hedges......try oil
