Sellers Need to Drop Their Prices (A Lot), 2024 Canadian Real Estate Market 

Much appreciated, thanks for the comment

Or the guy who is going to get it wrong again in 2024. He said in 2022 that prices were going to drop in 2023 and there would be all these buying opportunities in late 2023 or early 2024. Notice how he neglected to mention that when showing his own graph with prices up.? Now how he's saying the same thing again, just moved everything back one year.

@johnnylongstocking183 the man's showing statistics and data which don't have an opinion or feelings on what's going to happen. Believe you want obviously, ill stick with what he puts out even if it doesn't go the way the data shows.

@@rpmatt2022 the very same data that shows Jon was completely wrong in 2023. If it makes you feel better to believe he will be correct in 2024 that is all good.

@johnnylongstocking183 guess we shall wait and see then.

If u have never been burnt by the hot stove, why would u think it could hurt u.

Very true. Reality check coming soon.

Awesome, much appreciated.

Good point thanks for sharing

Exactly and the prices went up while the boarders closed (so no one come in in 2020 and 2022 tell middle of 2023 …so no population increase…but the prices doubled and tripled

@@alaalrashaeideh1154 yes I considered that but we still had immigration during lockdowns believe it or not. Your point Still Remains perfectly valid since prices had already ballooned *before* immigration surpassed average levels. (Especially when you account for the Market delay) People also forget that Canadians are only having 1.4 children per couple when it needs to be 2.1. People also ignore the type of immigrants we are getting. I mean no disrespect, but it's not like they are buying up all the houses.

rate cuts won't happen until umemployment rises

vancouver market is fked.

Thanks for the support

BC assessment is BS. Vancouver market is BS.

@@letitallout123 The Ontario market delays the bc market by about 8-10 months so we will be like that soon.

They usually assess a home higher even if the house is trash and most buyers want something to live in majority are not project people ​@@-37driver

I appreciate that!

awesome thanks

I have Detached house in Innisfil . Two years ago I was getting 1.6 M. Now nobody is buying in 1 Million. I lost in two years 6 hundred thousand. Jon is right. I think lots of realtors doesn’t like Honest realtor .

@@queen544 one example is not representative of an entire neighborhood let alone an entire city or country. Not doubting your own personal experience but even Jon's own chats show how wrong he was about the 2023 market. Jon can't help himself from saying the market is going to crash. He is a realtor that only does a couple of sales in a year so it's not like he has any sense of the market.

True but to be fair I think we’ve all been wrong on and off in our predictions over the last year, we cant really know anything for certain in this market. There were a lot of agents guaranteeing rate cuts early 2024 too.

@@MentionBiscuit except that Jon continues to act like he knows exactly where the market is going. When he gets it wrong, he never owns up to it. Watch what will happen if he is wrong again this year.

@@queen544 Highway 400 takes 10 years off your life. Too many people must have figured it out.

I don't see it either. It would result in higher prices.

There's an election this November in America so no matter what the news is or what the economic conditions are they'll still cut interest rates in America then the Bank of Canada will cut and rents will go to $5,000 a month for a one bedroom apartment.

Same here

Thanks

Thanks for the interesting info.

very true, it makes sense and is clearly is was happened in late 2022 and 2023

And we Canadians want that to happen so everyone can afford a house. It's a necessity though It's made a luxury with unscrupulous people in real estate.

thanks much appreciated

He is probably right. Things are going to get worse.

as long as you have somewhere to go, or if you're carrying a lot of debt then sounds like good advice.

We just made a purchase with Hasan Juma's help. He was excellent.

Will check him out thanks

@@jonflynn how is this a cognitive response?

@@Autonomous15must have been responding to another comment with a recommendation but put my response under yours by accident. Good comment, I’ve been searching for a realtor in Burnaby and it’s as you described.

I appreciate that!

Picture was from a couple of years ago, just browsing my photos for something wintery. It was my first time skating the Rideau though.

Awesome thanks

other realtors get awards for the most sales etc, I get for wishing the opposite lol

thanks for the support

They will be in a hurry once fear sets in.

Thanks for the comment

Thanks for watching!

Glad to hear it!

Thank you kindly

We will see, thanks for the comment

thanks

Good point

great comparison

Sellers are waiting for the next wave of stupidity. There too narrow minded and greedy to think that anything will change. Some will pull there heads out of the sand. Most will not, until it's too late.

great points, thanks for sharing

I think Canada has to stay close to the U.S. when it comes to interest rates. This time Canada raised first and looks like we will be the last to start cutting.

yep

living in denial....

Bottom line ,: don't trust Royal Le pp age and agents who think like that. Properties are not selling at asking prices but for much less.

For a realestate agent, anytime is the right time to buy. They make money either way.

exactly

Thanks for the comment

Brother america is messed. Look at heresy financial. We in the US are heading for big trouble

Thanks for the comment

@@wewons I would disagree. In Canada, 3-5 yr mortgages are the norm. This isn't the case in the US. Unless the States sees a major issue like in 2008, most homeowners in the US aren't going to get smashed. Whereas, in Toronto, Vancouver and to a lesser extent Montreal, we have people massively leveraged to their homes. Home prices in Toronto are 162 per cent higher than what a median-earning family can afford, while home prices in Vancouver are 195 per cent higher. The average price pre set ft for a condo is 1400 bucks in Toronto. 700 sq ft is pushing a million bucks. 2000 sq ft houses are 1.5-2 million. And believe me, at the lower end of that it's a fixer upper. Canada is wildly out of whack when it comes to real estate. Wages haven't even come close to tracking home prices in the last 20 yrs. Wages have increased 25-30% since 2003 while home prices have spiked 500% in Toronto. It's that staggering.

@@kevinn1158I think he’s saying that the US is in trouble too. They just have different bubbles.

@@BellaBella-jw9ef they may well have issues coming but their economy is so diverse they will easily power through. Canada is still a one dimensional economy that basically lives and dies on oil. And as a crutch, we’ve developed a crazy reliance on a non productive sector in the last 22 yrs ie Real estate. In fact, it’s basically developed into a pyramid scheme leaving basic fundamentals in the dust. This sector is a necessity and a foundation for wealth retention but it should never be a driving force in our economy. The American Fed announced 3 int rate cuts because they are watching the divergence between GDP and GDI. Look that one up. I don’t want to get too political but we need leaders who will take some very dramatic moves to increase housing supply, build private coop ownership, cut major taxes, like land transfer, development fees, & GST on new housing. The cost of a new home is 25-30% taxes. And get the municipal councillors out of the way. And drop immigration until they are able to provide homes, schooling and healthcare infrastructure for the people wanting to move here.

There won't be any rate cuts because they keep importing buyers

very true

@@JeffSSartorthose imported buyers don’t have a lot of cash, if you are referring to international students. Yes one thing for sure, there are a lot of flippers in the game, and I know they are at the breaking point.

Thanks for the comment

Thanks for the info, makes sense.

Well in our case we were renting a condo and the owners decided to sell. Ergo, we had two choices. 1. We could find another place to rent at more than double what we were currently paying, or 2. Just go ahead and purchase. Obviously the smart thing to do is purchase, otherwise we're just continuing to throw our money away at twice the rate we were in the past. That's the dilemma now for many people, because many investors are starting to offload their investment properties (which contain renters) so that they can get out of the market at what they perceive to be the top.

They got their 2023 forecast right unlike Jon who said prices were going to decline alot. Maybe they know a little more than Jon does.

well said, it seems like everything is based on that theory these days

yep, that's the key to the puzzle, until then high rates and flat prices

I just did a bunch of research there and they’re hard to find. I zeroed in on one but waiting for the buyer to confirm before I phone interview her.

Warren doesn't understand today everything is a ponzi. The U.S. stock market, Bitcoin the Canadian housing market all of them are ponzi's.

people aren't fearful, they just don't think now is a good time for a major purchase. I still see a lot more greed than fear which makes sense since we still haven't hit the fear stage of the asset bubble

Home prices will rise 10 to 12 percent this year and another 15 percent in 2025.

Prices are currently averaging 30 percent decrease from the peak in the GTA ( February 2022). If you account for the opportunity cost on your money over the last 2 years the real price drop is closer to 40 percent. Rates will only drop when unemployment starts increasing. Prices will fall another 10-15 percent from 30 percent drop on average where we are today in the GTA. Power of Sales are coming next. Negative amortizations cannot go on forever. Auditors will for banks to do a full write-down at some point.

@@parkerbohnn😂😂

@@frankferreira8955it’s the power of sales that’s keeping the mystery of ‘no foreclosures’ at bay

My timeline is based of historical trends. Prices will continue to decline as rate cuts start. Bottom may take a while due to all the renewals who will still be renewing at higher rates than they’re currently paying. So price declines continue until at least 2026-2027. Even when rates start dropping existing mortgagors will be seeing higher payments for 1-2 years at least as they renew.

10.5 percent increase in property tax is slated for Toronto. Exactly half what your assessment increase is.

Taxes will go up everywhere as city budgets are increasing exponentially

Virtually all the immigrants coming to Canada are penniless. The 20k they get to get into Canada is money borrowed from loan sharks. They get here then head for the nearest food bank and hostel yes hostel not hotel.

Canadians can't afford homes, what makes you think immigrants coming from third world countries will?

I was thinking that with that many new comers to the country that housing pressure will not go down thus affecting the cost. Not all immigrants come with very little money, I would dare say not a lot come with the clothes on their backs. Refugees yes.

@@jonflynnexactly

So buy the other one?

I am

@@ArZ00765 Hurry before he raises his price.

I can't comment on it since you're most likely working with a realtor but if it was me, I'd wait a week or two and offer $10K less than first offer. If it sells in the meantime oh well.

I agree, they want us all to be debt slaves

yep

Great job!

Thanks, pic was from 2022

great comment.

They're going to keep waiting because people can't afford the homes even with 0 rates 😅

I agree, good point

@@rjkrjk8344 why don't they lower their prices then?

Builders are building less homes because it costs them so much to build that it's not even worth their investment anymore. The high cost of materials, labor, development and permit costs. Canada is a ridiculous place for developers to do business now. And all the while they get treated like crap

​@@Joe-mz6dc I agree, builders won't jump in with just an interest rate cut. Need a recession to bring the cost of everything else down, materials, land and govt fees in particular

Thanks for the comment

Yeah it sucks, have been trying to find one and they're all singing the same tune.

@@jonflynn They have been on that drug for way too long, Jon. What else to expect from them?

​@@Scarz99 Lol. On what Vegetables? Chicken maybe? No one believes you.

@@Scarz99 dude... knock it off

That prices were going to crash. Same as he said in 2021, 2022 and 2023. It's also the same thing he is going to say in 2025 as well.

Nothing, I wasn't making these videos then.

@@jonflynnreal estate investing is a part of the retirement plan that could be better than RRSP GIC or mutual funds by applying leverage and capital gain exemptions. And doesn’t matter how much is down from the peak as diferent people have time horizons. Houses are not stocks to time and sell

Think of how many people's time they're wasting by listing 100-200K under market price so they get 20+ offers. How far off was your offer from the selling price?

​@@jonflynn following

😂

This is the reality that the geniuses can’t accept. “SOLD Under Ask 2024”

It fell as low as 2.1 times the husbands gross annual salary for a new detached home in the early 1970's in the GTA. Before the late 1970's it was always based on one salary the husband's.

BANKERS RUINING THE COUNTRY@@parkerbohnn

even at 5:1 people will be jumping out of windows

horrible depression coming all because of bankers. As David Rosenberg said all recessions and depressions are caused by bankers. We must end central banking. Every religion declares charging interest is a sin. Interest charges increases inflation and keeps us enslaved.@@jonflynn

If Jon actually thought we were going to see 2018 prices he would have sold his house at 2022 prices. He didn't because he knows 2018 prices are not coming back. All Jon cares about is clicks on his videos. He needs the ad revenue because he doesn't do many deals and half his office left.

The party is just getting started

@@jonflynn you said that last year too.

⁠@@johnnylongstocking183 How about you give it some time, and THEN be the judge? Say one suggests that the prices will plummet in August 2023. But guess what, that actually happens in say November 2024 or March 2025. You miss by a year - year and a half, that's all. It is a minor miss, but on the large scale still a decent guess. However, if nothing happens for the next 5 years, THEN you can say that it wasn't the best mathematical model that was constructed. The bottom line is we're all moving towards a gigantic waterfall. A few bumps down the road here and there, global events stop or accelerate down the road...etc, and you miscalculate by say a year. But, dear sir, the numbers DON'T LIE! You can love it or hate it, but we ARE heading for a rough ride here! If you don't see this, I actually envy you!

@@Nemija you are right the numbers do not lie. Jon has been wrong for YEARS now with his predictions. But lets use you logic. I am now predicting that home prices in Canada are going to raise 15% in 2024. But if they don't that is ok, just wait until next year, or the year after that, maybe 2026. As long as they increase 15% at some point see I was right. Same logic.

You waited too long you should have bought in October last year.

New year rush, lots of people coming out of the woodwork because they've been told prices will skyrocket once rates drop. Now that inflation is higher than expected rates won't drop as soon as expected so that rush may end soon. Recession still hasn't started.

I see it all the time

Yep, that's what I predict by my forecast.

@@jonflynn how about in 2024 ?

They ride on the coattails of the Chinese knowing prices can never fall. No matter what the price is the price will always go higher usually doubling every 5 years no matter what wages are.

Me either

Thanks for the comment

Great point, most realtors are oblivious to household income to house price ratios and have normalized the bubble. It will pop like it always does.

Sounds like your hoping prices will go down...where are you looking to buy?

@@Scarz99 I am looking to buy and hoping to do so in Powell River BC. But the point is people who think that this market can continue upwards into infinity have no basic fundamental understanding of the economics of the situation. Immigration won't prop this market up. The average immigrant make $30k/yr. These prices are completely unaffordable and they will fall no matter what any realtor thinks or says. Realtors, in general have a limited understanding of the macroeconomics of the global bubble that has been created. Mr. Flynn is at least being honest with what the outlook is for real estate. People might not like it, but he's being honest. Of course I'm hoping for prices to go down. So should you. The quicker we actually find a bottom (which this isn't it) the sooner we can dig our way out and get back to a "normal".

@@jonflynn Thank you for being willing to take an honest look at what is going on. As I have said before most realtors are taking an unrealistic view that this can continue. Just from this honest perspective if I were in Ontario instead of BC I would heavily consider you for any real estate transactions. Most realtors (at least that I have seen) are pushing the narrative that this will continue and it simply can't. There will be pain. People will lose their houses and/or significant money if they bought during the frenzy. It's not a fun thing to report to people but it's the truth they need to hear. The BoC doesn't care about you losing your house. They have one mandate "stable prices". And with housing being around 20% of GDP the government will do everything they can to maintain some of that, but that isn't likely to continue forever either. I remember walking the halls of empty new apartments in the 90s. It looks like we might be headed for something similar, or potentially worse. Thanks for the honest report.

@jaredwebster7138 why would any homeowner wish for prices to go down?

You’re correct.

The bottom was the beginning of October 2023 when interest rates peaked. If yu wwiated to buy since then you've waitied too long.

Bottom will be 2025-2027 in my opinion

@@jonflynn why do you keep changing when the bottom will be?

I've never called a bottom, above I gave a 2 year window which was an opinion. I've said constantly "buying opportunities" will start end of this year into 2025 sometime.@@johnnylongstocking183

@@jonflynn funny how you claim to have not said things that you clearly have in previous videos or comments. You said buying opportunities in late 2023 into early 2024 and that the bottom was in 2024. Do you ever admit you got something wrong?

yep, it's happened before

many didn't see that coming

Send those rates higher..🎉🎉🎉

@@jonflynn the inflation report was right in line with market expectations. So ya most who know saw it coming.

cool thanks, just added your info on my phone.

haha

Ok

Thanks

The buyers are stupid and with all of them being wrong they'll all wait too long to buy as always and then get shutout of the market forever for a second time.

Buyers are starting to buy again.

yep

@@chadpescod-realtor3308 People are mainly starting to quit the country, that what Im saying in many market. Immigration is pretty high true, but emmigration rate is on the rise, its scary.

@@chadpescod-realtor3308 Prices are rising at the lower end of the housing market. Markham and Richmond as always will lead the entire Godden Horseshoe in price increases and the rest of the cities will follow with a lag period of time. My guess is prices will rise 10 to 12 percent this year and another 15 percent next year.

Great comment thanks for sharing.

Thanks for the comment

Yep

You think people can hold for a year? 😂

that's the plan with our house anyways . Not sure what everyone else can do. We are on variable and have seen our monthly payment go up 2400$ a month

@@BriCam1 sorry to hear that, criminal. For the sake of folks like you I hope for reductions. It’s not the increase so much as the fact that it’s just evaporating to interest costs. The agents that walked a lot of folks into this mess can get bent.

@@BriCam1prices won’t go up because we are about to enter a very deep recession. Inflation is up so rates aren’t coming down. You would be wise to sell jow

​@@MentionBiscuitthanks for that, yeah I guess we were stupid going variable, I personally call it predatorial lending by the Fed and the BoC. Wife is on maternity leave and in that time, payments from 3600 to 6 per month. My entire pay goes to the mortgage alone... very frustrating and hoping for something to give in the country, before we break

You could be right

The ones who survive this winter.

"population trap" as that economist from the national bank put it

Finally someone else sees through his nonsense. When prices don't come down this year, he will just say you have to wait another year. There is a reason this guy only does a couple of deals a year.

Those rate cut will mostly only affect the 1 and 2 year mortgages but it will affect the variable rate ones. The 5, 7 and 10 year mortgages will fall the least percentage-wise.

Who are these experts and economists? Please share, and not the ones hired by real estate brokerages.

@@jonflynn there is this really cool new thing you can do these days called reading. Even better you can do it on your phone.

Very true

Can build for half that, just need a lot first though

But Hamilton is not worth much to begin with.

@sophielabelle3324 she's asking 689 000. People who work in TO came to Hamilton to buy cheaper homes before the pandemic and pushed up the prices, unfortunately. People are asking over half a million for 1000 square foot homes.

@sophielabelle3324 That's pretty expensive for me. Anything over 1800-2000 for a mortgage is too expensive here, with the median income being 75 000 a year.

I've seen apartments in Edmonton sell for less than forty dollars a square foot.

Interesting take