Did they answer why goverment was removed in 2014th in Ucraine, and why is Minsk agreement rejected to respect? Also why does US occupy Siria oil teritorry?
You raise some good points! The removal of a democratically elected government in Kyiv is rarely addressed in Western news media. I remember the murder of democratically elected Allende in Chile. Was that the CIA too? Remember how the Americans supported the Pinochet dictatorship? And Suharto's genocide in Indonesia. Half a million of his political opposition murdered - with American assistance and encouragement. Syria is a quagmire of competing interests. They have had a particularly rough ride. And Minsk? We in the West are simply never told why the agreements failed.
I just love how economists explain everything after the fact. lots of assumptions and the major one is thinking that Putin is only just looking at his power and public support readings. what if is looking at Russia's future, and not only him but a big part of the leading team that supports him?
Russia’s future is no longer in the equation because the loss of this war, even the revelation of Russia’s weakness due to the effect of corruption on its military, has damaged Russia’s future indefinitely.
@@carlabroderick5508 it has revealed more the unpreparedness of NATO for real combat and the inadequacy of the private military sector to provide the necessary weapons and at reasonable costs. it has also shown other countries that they cannot trust on the USD for currency and wealth reserves
Absolutely brilliant and unbiased, just badmouth every political opponent of the west and skip all other western friendly tyrants. That´ll guarantee you a career in our education system for sure.
Wow 400 billion sounds like a lot, considering Russia's total imports were around 250 billion in total before the war. Russia is a tiny market for exporters, they are a poor nation, with a small economy.
What a fantastic speaker, a truly impressive breadth and depth of knowledge and some excellent and insightful questions posed at the end of the main presentation. Thank you for posting this 👍👍
@@_mimika_ Well, based on the official Kremlin figures released yesterday, I guess it won’t take that long to see who is right, and who is wrong here…… 🙈🙈
@@seadog8807 я указываю на конкретные аргументы, озвученные в начале, которые на самом деле ложные. Ну а на них выстраивается повествование. Не могу слушать и верить тому, кто врёт в самом начале своего выступления. И не раз. Очень легко проверить его слова☺️
@@andrei6267 It’s impossible to have a balanced counterpoint you say…. Guess we’ll just have to disagree on that. But thanks again for your contributions 👏👏
At 1:24:40, Mr Guriev said, "In May, I wrote an op-ed for The Economist..." The Economist just happens to be the only news source I trust enough to read regularly. In its latest edition, 3rd February, it had a lengthy piece giving reasons to believe the price caps on Russian energy exports were not producing the desired outcome. That's quite different to what Mr Guriev said in his presentation. I don't know what to think now.
I will tell you something. All manner of dissidents and Putin haters talk at us non stop. They may well be stellar in their line of business. And their grievances may be justified. But - because of how affected and bitter they are- they cannot offer analysis. Full stop . End of story. Right the last page.
Oh dear, feel like you have been misled, or lied to? Tsk tsk, is Putin not playing well with the NWO? As long as you listen to those who spin the situation as an invasion, rather than listen to how it was explained, a liberation of his people, You chose your side. Choices have consequences.
There would be nothing but propaganda from scholars based in Russia or Russian institutions. Unless of course they fancied an impromptu flight out of a window or poisoning.
I am really proud that Sergei is russian, because people can see that we have liberal and educated people. And he shows that Russia has a chance to change and to be a democratic country
A Russia traitor betraying his motherland is an odd spectacle, a feeble mind spinning lies according to the neocon tune to satisfy Western audience. Vague simplistic opiniated misguided. He sounds uneasy. Distrust his biased analysis from start to finish. « EU is stronger than it was. » Such a denial of reality. Quite obvious that sanctions are not working, it is clear for all to see. Europe in recession, Russia developing fast a new future in a multipolar world order. The US must pay him lots.
As always, an excellent speech from Dr Guriev I used to attend his talks at the LSE events , he is extremely knowledgeable researcher and his curriculum speaks for itself
The most brilliant and sophisticated analysis of the situation in Russia and what happen, what Putin might do, and what are the many possible outcomes and their effect on an extremely complex and nuanced situation that's laced with so much uncertainty
@@andrei6267 It was just pure western propaganda claim back then to support the help efforts for UKR. What else would you expect from anti-Putin influential russian economist, that sees the long term implications of such massive sanctions destroying his own country? I would have said the same if I wanted to encourage the western society to make the move to massively support UKR which obviously will cost tons of money and to discourage any potential Putin ally from supporting him, because he might be out of power soon. Anyway I'm quite sure that the sanctions will bite and the russian economy will eventually collapse, sooner or later. I personally feel very sorry for the ukrainians and also for ordinary russians, who cant do anything about it, unless they start starving in huge numbers and the massive anti-Putin movement starts, that can't be covered up by the propaganda anymore. Peace from Czech Republic :)
@@michalrudis3519 They have 700,000 thousand troops on Ukraine for an offensive. It is already over. NKK report claims Biden offered Putin 20% of Ukraine in January. BRICS is stronger. Russias economy is growing in 2023.
Very interesting talk. Such a shame that the wide shot doesn’t include the full presentation screen the speaker refers to. Worth noting for the future.
So you want to live in a dictatorship like China or Russia😮 China has imprisoned 1,000,000 people due to their religious beliefs and Russia is highly corrupt and economically uneven country where a few are very rich and the poor are very poor.
An unsubstantiated theory about tyrants, for example, it is mentioned that they do not change the regime, but there is an example of Chiang Kai-shek and Francisco Franco who were very radical and bloody, but switched to democratic peacefully transferring power. Also an example of the same South Korea where a bunch of military dictators led to democracy.
Franco didn't change the regime in anything, neither did Chiang Kai-shek, they died.. This autoritarian regimes are build around one person, the dictator, when they die the regimes can fall soon after.. there is not a change, they ended when the dictator dies or gets overthrown.
@@Filisteu1900 Franco voluntarily resigned from his post 2 years before his death. It was he who chose Prince Juan Carlos as his successor. The King of Spain Juan Carlos I completed the process of turning the country from an authoritarian to a democratic one (yes, after the death of Franco), but it is obvious that the regime does not change overnight and there was preparation for this. Yes, Chiang Kai-shek ruled to death, but if you look at the history in detail, his regime, which at the beginning mass-shot dissenting people on the streets, softened and drifted into democracy. In his political testament, Chiang Kai-shek urged his compatriots to continue to implement Sun Yat-sen's three people's principles: to strive for the recovery and restoration of mainland China, to revive national culture, and to vigorously defend democracy. Yes, He transferred power to his son, but he did not turn Taiwan into North Korea, where the monarchy was actually restored. Jiang Jingguo In 1987, martial law was lifted and Taiwan's politics took a democratic path. Taiwan's economy has developed successfully. Jiang Jingguo had a reputation for being an honest politician. Under his administration, "Ten big construction projects" began. Jiang Jingguo paid great attention to Taiwan's economic growth.
@@Deadpoolion the three principles of Sun Yat Sen were : minzu, minquan and minsheng. Minzu : independence for the chinese people internally and externally, by chinese he meant Han. The Qing were Manchus and he saw them as internal usurpers. External independence meant for him to be strong enough to fight imperial powers and to command as much respect as they did. Minquan referred to democratic rights for the people. Minsheng meant welfare, his explicitly stated model was democratic socialism. Sun Yat Sen died in 1911, 38 years before the KMT flew to Taiwan. Why would he talk about “mainland”? Chiang Kai Shek cared for none of those during his lifetime. This is what matters, not what he wrote on his deathbed. His son, great man. Nothing bad to say about him, strong legacy in general.
@@loic-6862 At the beginning I wrote that they are bloody authoritarian dictators, I did not justify them. I argue with the argument that authoritarian tyrannies do not change without revolutionary or outside intervention. To make it easier There is also the example of SINGAPORE and Lee Kuan Yew. He is also an authoritarian ruler who ruled the country for 30 years, who peacefully democratized and transferred power.
The problem is that he is speculating about the future in the same way as was speculated last year. Russia did fine, given that it was the most sanctioned country in history. It has an industrial base and all the materials it needs to grow. If LG pulls out of the market in Russia, plenty of Russian and Chinese companies can step in and take its market share. Some sanctions were a boost to domestic producers. And who cares what the IMF is forecasting? The 2014 coup took place because the IMF wanted Ukraine to increase gas prices by 40%, but the elected government balked at the political and economic costs and went with Putin's offer instead. The coup was funded by Western countries and has come back to hurt them badly. Germany is deindustrializing, and the middle class in Europe is getting slaughtered as costs are rising much faster than their wages when their pension and healthcare systems face insolvency. The Eurozone is looking at a Debt/GDP ratio of 80%, while the Russian ratio is under 20%. Russia holds no certificates of confiscation in the form of USTs and has diversified into bullion that will be used as the basis of intercountry trade settlement. This presentation looks like wishful thinking.
Speaking about Putin in this tone, he wants to rise, but in fact politics is a much more complex thing than economics and he is simply unable to comprehend the scale of this personality. Time will tell everything.
No, this guy has a HUGE ax to grind, also, he's total believer in liberal democracy and thinks free markets work. So no, he's trying to be more western than than the westerners.
На Украине все могло закончится ещё в 2014 году, без необходимости вмешаться в конфликт России. Для этого были подписаны минские соглашения... Которые поддержали Германия, Франция, Россия и которые Украинская власть обязалась исполнить, но как и всегда, обманула :( Но учитывая что Украина лишь марионетка, думаю что мирно развиваться России не дали бы, просто сменили марионетку:( У России много слабостей, которые используют¯\_(ツ)_/¯
This is pure one-sided POV, Why don't this Prof. also discuss how US, NATO countries invaded and ruined so many countries. Because of the West aggression, Libya is now left devastated. See what happened to Afghanistan.
@@uschurch Bashar el Assad holds because Putin decided to back him up. Obama gone ,Trump gone. Biden is desperate, waiting for Putin to drop him some bone so he could save some face. Neeext.
Quite one sided. How about bringing someone on who supports the current Russian government. It's very selective to say Russia has extra judicial executions when whe US does it regularly and uses it as a badge of honour
We are being deceived in believing that the deaths of high level missile scientists and other Russian elites are Putin's doing. I would not rule out CIA operatives doing the kiling instead.
@@ekesandras1481 please provide sources for your claim. Because I can produce an overwhelming amount perpetrated by the USA, one such person is Kennedy and Osama bin laden, Sadam, Iranian general, khadafi and many more.
Sergei Guriev forgot to mention that the oil and gas no longer purchased by the West cannot be transported in any significant amounts to other markets. The logistics simply do not make this possible.
@@paulbadics3500 There is no way on earth that the Chinese will pay the absolutely staggering cost and decade long work for thousands of miles of pipelines thorough virgin, uninhabited territory when they can continue to get fairly modest amounts of Russian oil at a huge discount and source all the oil they want from the rest of the world. The Chinese are not stupid, and neither are the Indians. There are no free rides for the Russians anymore.
@@richardcory5024 while it wont be easy for Russia to replace european buyers with asian ones quickly the transition has been well underway for several years & progressing at a fast pace...nat gas pipeline exports from russia to china already huge & will double by 2025 & again by 2025 & more Oil pipelines in the world , in meantime shipping LNG, Crude & refined products from arctic to pacific & through turkey & central to India..china & india big winners buying discounted oil & gas from russia while western economies suffer high prices & inflation..russian indian & chinese energy & shipping companies making a killing & lots of product being diverted to avoid sanctions & price caps
46:14 "Accelerate the greening of the European economy..." - после этих слов, не вижу смысла дослушивать до конца. Скорее в Африке случится эта "green economy" - потребления там меньше.
Nice lecture, but like all forecasts, assumptions and inputs dictate predictions. Some used here have been demonstrated to not be correct both methodologically and factually. ...but that's economics, it's not a science.
Economics is very much a science. But like all good scientists, economists must sometimes quantify things that are not countable. What is wrong with that? All social statistics do that.
@@DominicFlynn How come? Russia invaded and annexed Ukrainian territory so I guess it is precisely what has happened. First Crimea in 2014 and now they are trying to annex Donetsk, Lugansk and Zaporozia and Kherson oblasts.
@@DominicFlynn Yes it did. This is precisely what happened. But if think otherwise maybe you can enlighten us what do you think happened so we can explain to you where does your confusion comes from.
Russian economy is already collapsed. You have not yet understood it. Where exactly can I exchange my euros to rub(b)les? What is their price? How can I invest in Russia? 😂😂😂😂 Keep believing Russian State Lies’ Transmissions...
How biased this session is, you conviniently ignored the fact that, this War could have ended in March 2022, but the US, NATO for their own benefits escalated this War and put Ukraine in this horrible situation. The prevented Ukraine from negotiations, at that time Donbass was still Ukraine. Russia asked only for security guarantees, asked Ukraine to remain neutral. See how USA dealt with Cuban missile crisis. Russia has every right to care for its security.
Go to fight in the front line cameraden. Become an expandable tool for your leader. It's clear that you don't consider Ukraine a sovereign country and Russia an illegal invader. If Russia only asked for security it would have stayed in his own territory and negotiate, because Ukraine was neutral: no part of NATO or EU. Why Ukraine cannot choose his own future? Crimea or Donbass can but Ukraine not? Why this double standard? After Ukraine, if not stopped, Russia will take Moldova (already trying), the Baltic states and Poland (helped by Bielorussia). Putin is a lunatic dictator that sacrifices the youth of his country for his own ego to be remembered like Stalin. Nobody want to invade Russia. Russia (Putin) invaded Georgia, Chechenya , is now in Syria and Libya (together with the Wagner brigade), and because you talked about Cuban missile, see how Russia dealt with Afghanistan, Hungary, Czechoslovakia and many more countries (during the Soviet years... Same time of the Cuban missile crisis)
Not really... the invasion fell apart on its own. Now the west is fully invested but thats only possible because your corrupt military dropped the ball.
I agree. They were willing to broker peace around March/April 2022 but the US/UK stopped it. I also think this is not entirely true economically as Chinese economic help is bigger than what they say. All western brands are either replaced with a Russian equivalent or Chinese brands (there is a Japanese documentary covering this too). In fact this war that the west escalated has led to a weaker Europe and split the economic world in half and away from the USD. It won't happen overnight but acceleration is now done. Just watch as the rest of the world slowly lose their trust in the western model and USD. See Saudi Arabian accepting RMB. Oil price cap is bypassed by selling to other countries sold as a premium and he neglected to say anything about the mechanism for "Gas for Roubles". A key component for other countries bypassing western sanctions. He also fails to mention the censorship on Russian media in the west and what citizens feel now compared to at the beginning of the war. And of course wouldn't mention how weak the EU is listening to the US and not its own interest. Also he has no idea what the global south really thinks . Or the Ukrainian history or what happened in 2014. Doesn't understand Crimea and doesn't understand that there is no need for Taiwan to be forcefully reunite with mainland China. The west and the US needs it as window closes in 2025 (per the Rand corporation own reports). This is very ill informed speaker imo and doesn't show everything. Very ideological with some assumptions and superiority mindset, instead of based on facts.
Did he really said "PUTIN UNDERESTIMATED THE EUROPIAN UNITY" ???!!! It seems to me that living/working in Austria affect your perception of crucial points regarding principles of democracy, indipendence, economic cooperation ... etc etc. I ended to watch at +/- 47'+ because of the unbearable disgust! You have been seeing a "great economist" talking fried air, which is also what great economists are very good at: namely "scientifically" reasoning on past data but concluding with their own whishes (or the whishes of their paying western masters). How credible is a corrupted anti-russian russian talking about a corrupt regime on the base of "opinion polls" just by throwing around some western made figures but not realzed predictions, bypassing their intrinsically contraddition and distruction by the real relatively much much more better actual results? When an economist talks in a way tha the normal/medium citizens can't check in its own wallet, such an economist is simply a sofist-merchant at a local market of "occasion cars" manipulating data, mixing the appreciations of his selling narrative, without saying a word about what real people experience in every day's live where everyone sees and feels the reality of live. Putin has underestimated the "REAL IGNORANCE OF WESTERN GOVERNEMENTS ABOUT THE DEADLY HEAVY PRESSURE OF THE YANKEE BOOTS ON THEIR THROATS" In all the West normal families are only for now loosing about 20 to 25% of their jobs, wealth, income but much more of their future prospectives. Good Luck and thanks! You'll do better to search for the real figuren
Imagine being so dumb to think that retarded post-soviet youth subculture which has no political representation has something to do with this war beyond being propaganda boogeyman for stupid people. As Russian citizen I saw this neo-Nazi subculture in Moscow, however idiots didn't justify any actions against Russian federation because some thugs bullied people with central Asian phenotype and shouted neo-nazi slogans.
Everyone will take a bite out of Russia for their reparations. First Ukraine... then Georgia, then on down the list. The Rus will be back to their 18th century borders and everyone will be happier.
@Adriano Celentano Why I can't see @Scorpio comment but I can see yours. "Putin was obviously worried that Ukraine could become a succesful democracy" Lol big lol after coup in 2014 first thing new democratic government did is to ban 2 political parties that had ~60-70 voter base.
Russia annexed Crimea in 1783, the West appears to never have noticed? Tennyson may have mentioned it in poem, about the Light Brigade...... But the economy of Crimea has been as tied to Moscow, as San Diego is to Washington DC. The eternal effort to exploit Russian Resources is evident and harmful.
Not sure what you’re referring to. The head of Russia’s central bank said that Russia’s gdp dropped by about 4%. Germany’s gdp grew (something like 2-3%), and the UK’s seemed to stay nearly the same… so it MAY be in a recession. We still don’t have all of the numbers yet. Regardless, compared to both of those western economies, Russia’s has suffered more. Like this guy said, given high oil prices, one would expect that Russia’s economy would grow by 5% in 2022. Instead it shrank by 3-4%, which means the sanctions have had a significant (but not catastrophic… yet) impact on Russia.
@@jaarneal Interesting that when Western sanctions throttled the flow of imports Russia receives from the West, this naturally improved Russia's balance of payments - despite reduced revenue streams from oil and gas.
What i don't understand is how do dictators are so popular in their countries? Or maybe i should ask what is the definition of dictatorship because i think there are other definitions out there. A dictator is brutal and cant be popular.
The Russian fiscal 2023 budget is based on a oil price of USD 72.(actual price is 50). The deficit will eliminate the “special savings account” by June/July.
