@@SigFigNewton for normal items, then yes, but not for homes. Homes will always increase in prices because people will always want a home. Maybe to live or maybe as an investment, houses are just way too attractive. Hell, as a non current asset, they depreciate(which can become a tax write off) while simultaneously being revalued higher and higher And as such, the only way house price can fall, is through a crash
The best time to buy a house is always yesterday. Buy now - if you intend to live there in that home then you don't loose. You will have a home and you'll make money back if you own it long enough.
Another great video! Thank you. Video suggestion: Could you possibly do a video on supply and demand or rather when supply is exceeding demand or vice versa in the property market. Seems like with high inflation, alot of investors are parking money into property because of high inflation. Buyers market and sellers market update videos would be great!! Thanks!
We just bought . First time Byers. 200k house at 5% 1000 a month for the mortgage. We fixed for 3 years,we have been living with inlaws for 3 years to save. We are at the stage where our daughter will be leaving school next year and we needed to get settled. So had to buy. If it looses value it won't matter as we plan on staying for over 10 years.
Its going to drop much more than you are suggesting. There is a huge dollar shortage globally and houses dropping just 10% would be a dream. Global depression incoming.
if you compare the 5.5% interest rate for £200k mortgage with the rent in London, it's a no brainer. Rent is much higher as it needs to cover the landlord mortgage plus his profit.
This is a little oversimplified. Add in the uplift in insurance rates, uplift on estate agency fees and if the landlord is letting an apartment (UK) then factor in variable maintenance fees increasing also. Not the best time to be a landlord which is why a lot of landlords are starting to sell lower performing properties.
Hey Matt, I've had an offer accepted a few weeks ago. Still in the process of purchasing. I've gotten a 4.28% interest rate on a property worth £380k. with 20% deposit. I still feel it's appropriate to get the house as it's fully done up and I'm 27 and wanting to move out.
This is just the beginning. Banks won't stop rising the interest rates. Now is the best time to do it. Why they will squeeze themselves with low interest rates that soon. Won't happen over night but probably we will see 15% mortgage rates again.
Wait till rates go up to 17.5% like they did when I bought a house. It's all bonkers. Would not buy a house unless you're a cash buyer and you can get an absolute bargain like 59% off.
@@garyboi9779 I'm sure people said that back then too. I'm pretty sure they won't go up to anything like that because things are breaking already, honestly though I think the economy is in a worse state now than it ever was and interest rates do need to be raised a lot more than 5%.
@@davidwhitton5519 true, it's all planned to line their pockets and screw everyone else. Banks are going down already , those same crooks will of course know before hand which banks and when and will position themselves to profit massively from their demise.
This time last year the majority of people thought I was off my tits for saying a property crash of 35% minimum was imminent. To me it was plain as day and totally baked in to the figures. Now they know my calculations was good. Will be the end of next year before we see house prices bottoming out. Nowadays the people who say there will be no crash are the ones who look crazy.
I read somewhere that the difference between the Halifax and Nationwide monthly figures is that Halifax customers are based more in the North of England and Nationwide's are in the South. As the prices in the NW are holding up much better than in the SE & SW this would explain the divergence between the twos numbers.
Interest rates at practically zero for years made it easy peasy to make money because it was basically free. That's not true now and prices are inflated to ridiculous levels. They need to drop.
@@cooper8t not long ago we were being threatened with negative interest rates lol. Makes me pretty mad to be honest, I paid 17.5% on my mortgage and now for the last 10 to 15 years been mortgage free and have savings getting next to nothing in interest.
@@FlyingFun. House prices were cheaper even relative to the higher interest rates in the 90's. At the moment we've got interest rates around 5%, prices still reflecting the ultra low interest rates and with housing prices to household earning ratios at the highest ever. Trust me, you got off easy compared to this younger generation.
Too bad that buying a house isn't as easy as going to a store and buying a car or other item. Guzumping should be made illegal as I have lost so much money through this that now I can never afford to buy even if house prices halve and at my age no one will lend me.
Now or should I say in 1 month TOPS, is the time to buy as many houses as you can. But ofc most people dont have the money because you spent it when the economy was looking great, instead of saving it and spending when the economy is down.
Hi Matt. I love watching your videos as you always provide very important information and you have so much knowledge. Thank you for everything you do. We need people like you are. And please advise me if I want to sell my property, she'll I sell it now or in 2024 or 2025? I bought it in 2019 in 50% shared ownership, so do you think the value of it has gone up well till now, or is it dropped? Or she'll I wait till 2024 or 2025 as I need to make some money on it. Please advise me. Thanks a lot !!! I appreciate your advice.
Great information. Hey Matt can I please ask, if I already put an offer on a house last year and that same house has now advertised on the market March 2023 for a lower price than last year, can I reduce my offer made last year, to meet the now current price advertised? I am a cash buyer.
As someone who lived through the 17% hikes I find “ high interests rates “currently quite laughable though it’s actually not all funny! Until now low interest rate have fuelled house prices . People won’t know what’s hit them if they go up anymore. In the late 80’s lots of people had to sell and couldn’t even get back enough to cover their loan! Since this video was made there been more predictions that we have not seen the worst yet! I hope they are wrong, But don’t expect the government to bale you out!
Another old timer that needs to brush up on thier maths..... 17% of £2000 was a much smaller % of salary back then compared with 5% of £200000 as a % of salary. I believe there was a statement in the video which mentioned that about 40% of income goes straight towards the mortgage.
@@Dr.Stacker I hear you. However the fact remains the interest rates could go higher. People need to factor that in. When interest were raised previously many more women were working part time and could increase their hours to raise their disposal income to compensate .many took up work for the first time. Now most women are working full time and those who would prefer to be a stay at home mum no longer have the choice. It should not be the responsibility of the state to support child care, but parental responsibility.Sadly. Both partners working is one of the reasons that have. fuelled the rise in house prices..I believe society in general is now witnessing some of the consequence of this! And before you start, many younger people actually agree with this. But at least I don’t resort to using insulting ageist comments to make my points!
I like the video as usual - although, I am a little paranoid that you might be trusting that 10% downside a bit too much. If the gov were actually predicting horrific 20+% drops in price, I really doubt they would say it out loud, they would probably say something like 10% and then be wrong due to "unforeseeable events" etc. I'm not an expert of course, but I'm going to wait 6-12 months and then buy. That 10%+ discount will mean I can get 10% more house for my £ and when it comes time to sell, the extra profit will be a huge payday.
@@RabJ208 Depends entirely on the chain. First house I bought (ie no chain my end) took three months or so because the seller was trying to buy somewhere to move to.
@@tomgl6684you should have typed "It took me 3 or 4 months to buy a house because or circumstance A or circumstance B. I bought a surveryer to a block of 10 flats and bought them all within 3 hours.
It's worth noting that the OBR report's estimate of 10.3% house price growth over the next 5 years includes 9.8% growth from the 2022/23 tax year. There are 2 weeks left of that tax year. If you exclude that number from the forecast, the estimated growth until 2027/28 is 0.46%, using the numbers in their report. It still might make sense to buy a home if you find the right place, but it's certainly not an "investment".
Inflation has just come out at 10.4%. Its actually increased, pretty much guaranteeing further increases in interest rates. 4.75% isn't going to cut it. If your next video is yet another optimistic punp,I'll know that you've lost objectivity. Understandable, given your position though
Inflation in Q1 2023 was expected to be about 9.9% - so it's not too far off, and understandable for it not to be accurate considering so much volatility and uncertainty in the world putting pressure on supply chains, making forecasts hard and less reliable. all eyes are on today's monetary policy committee, my guess is BoE will vote to raise to 4.25% due to the increase from 10.1% to 10.3% inflation from Jan to Feb.
@@MattBrighton agreed. 25 basis point rise is my guess too. I think that rates are going to hit a much higher peak to tame inflation. Historically, we've had to have an interest rate exceeding inflation to get it under control. Would be interested in your take on this
@@Gjudxdkjyzddhjnr7091 I need to look back at previous forcasts. I remember they either forecasted a peak of 4.5 or 4.75% - if it risks exceeding that then things get really interesting and my view would start to change - or alternatively if it stayed where it is now but for a longer period of time than anticipated (eg inflation didn’t fall to about 5% by end of this year) then also would change my thoughts as well.
@Matt Brighton it's worth reading up on Vockler for an indication of the worst-case scenario. Some say you need a real positive base rate to get inflation under control...
Not nessessarily, if you are in it for the long haul. Let's say you buy a property at £200K now and it drops to £180K next year. On paper you've lost £20K. But in 10-15 years when your house has doubled in value to £400K - will that £20K dip worry you?
@@RabJ208 Let's say it drops to £100k in two years, the market flounders for the usual three years, and then prices rise with wage inflation, typically from Land Registry values of 4% per year on average, that's 18 years to get back to £200k. Or drops to £150 (it ain't going to be £180k), three years floundering and then plus 8 years, that's 13 years from now. So buy at market bottom.
@@nicky_nike, houses on average double every 10 years. So over the course of 10 years on average a £200K house sould be worth in the region of £400K. You would have to be fairly unlucky for your house to halve in value and to go through all of those stages in your hypothetical wouldn't you say? I'd think choosing 10 people at random and then letting them go on about their lives; and predicting they'd all die of an electric shock would be more likely?
@@RabJ208 After the events happening now, do you honestly think prices will double in 10 years? They didn't double say 2013 to now. This crash will extend that timing.
My friend you are talking rubbish. House prices will never go down with this kind of inflation, build new homes became too expensive so the ones on the market will never go down on price. There are no many houses been sold because the interests rate are too high just that, but the prices are still going up because the shortage is immense compared with the demand.
Some economists think there'll be a 40% drop. Some say there'll be a 10% dip. Some don't think there'll even be a dip. I'm assuming you'll be a billionaire soon with your inside knowledge of the market?
