The US economy is inflated. In terms of PPP(Purchasing Power Parity) China is ahead. Everything costs 3 to 5 times more in the US. People pay more for everything in the US, more for vehicles, more for medical care, more for food, etc.
I think USgovt. is very smart if makes inflation up to 100% inflation. The USdebt will reduce from 34 trillions to 17 trillions. That's easy to pay off USdebt.
@@prakorngirodkunkid7877 That puts pressure on the US population. Home prices going up isn't good, it makes property taxes and homeowner's insurance go up.
@Ace1000ks19751982 I think:1.the rich lost 1/2 assets 2.the poor gain 1/2debt 3.working people get balance by increase salary. Few rich people still have money/ lot of poor easy to pay off debt/worker can balance cost of living.
Not only that. The US killed Toshiba’s semiconductor business by sanctioning its export to US companies while opening its markets to Taiwan and South Korea and early technology transfer to TSMC and Samsung.
USA nominal gdp is higher than China because of the exchange rate. In terms of ppp China is far ahead of Usa. What constitutes the strength of a country is it's manufacturing prowess.
That's why I am disappointed in Trump as "the Businessman". Cooperation with China is the surest way to maintain American dominance in world affairs and prosperity for as long as possible. With the prosperity America, if it had the political mettle, can fund the work on fixing the infrastructure and structural issues that are clearly dragging the country down. But Trump chose confrontation. Oh well.
Exactly that's how the uk survived and got back and the pound was high for many decades after the war. Only way to stay on top is to help pull people up. You will be needed forever
the fear of communism overwrites every reasonable argument of mutually beneficial cooperation. it would mean the end of US super rich, they worked dilligently since US inception on maintaining a semi aristocratic structure, they won't give it up now, even if it's absolutely detrimental for them. they see it as just another temporary downturn.
@serriajohn Please note that later these assets will be frozen by the US like Henry Kissinger say "it may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal.!
China doesn't have an ''over-capacity'' problem, the US/West has an overwhelming under-capacity problem, and it can't sanction its way out of this. The US/West is becoming like the late period of Qing Dynasty if not already is.
Scarcity is a foundation of capitalism. Scarcity must be enforced for capitalism to thrive. When there is overcapacity, it threatens and undermines capitalism.
4:17 The chart is bringing back memories of my fourth grade experience when I read the story of the rabbit and the turtle, a story for children. It does not matter how slowly you go as long as you do not stop. Education is bitter, but its fruit is sweet -Confucius
US lower education wages has been stagnating since 1970s. US high education wages rocketed. thanks to globalization and technology. If you go to Walmart and see inexpensive Chinese stuff - think why...; understanding of how econ works is flawed.
think why all of the world, including highest paid europeans move to live to USA... USA population grows at around 1-3% yearly... yet chinese country and ruzzians are losing people.
Kevin i can tell u that i left london and relocated to abuja Nigeria some 4 years ago. This place was a british colony only 65 years ago and there were many in Africa. İ traveled far and wide in Nigeria to remotest outpost and always i notice chinese young men seeking opportunities looking for solid minerals and setting up operations with locals. Never saw a single English man or french or germans in these remote areas and bushes.the Europeans stop working many years ago.u only see europeans in white brand new japanese suv in Cities top hotels all mainly working for NGO or similar unrisky and safe organizations. İts not at all surprising what you are saying. Europe is gone. Seems a tired old part of the world that fast losing relevance. But if you were to go to london or paris or berlin or Brussels they are totally oblivious of what is actually happening to Europe.
They will continue to enjoy their privileges so long as the USD remains the World's reserve currency. They will 'kill' and cause chaos to maintain their privileges.
Regardless of the trajectory of the country, the US's resources in education, capital, and business intelligence has greatly benefited itself and China. When I visited factories in Dongguan, I spoke to many family business owners who were educated in the US and still serve America as their main international customer. Maybe it's just cause I was a white guy there, but I truly felt a sense of appreciation when speaking to them about their relationship with the US. I doubt you would get the same sentiment when it's the other way around
LOL, most factories in South China are owned by low-educated people. Maybe their children enjoyed an education abroad. Mumbai-Dharavi is NOT a city in China.
Chinese are nice people by nature. Not as jaded as the west. The west did so many evil bad things. They think everyone is coming to get them. So they double down on evil.
Educated in the US is the key. Many US educated Asians are white worshippers who believe that the West is the best and the white men can do no wrong. Of course you feel appreciated, they are literally worshipping you.
Thank you. i really appreciate your videos. I have been a student of international political economy since the late 1960s and I really, really appreciate your videos. Lots of original research and original analysis !!
EU deindustrialization is mainly because of US. EU is not smart and still today they are not smart for going along with US. They just loss their cheapest source of energy from Russia. US would like to stiffer China too. But on the other hand, China would like everyone to prosper so that China can sell products to them.
besides it's natural cycle of economics. West has prospered... whilst poor countries are making goods (ie slaving). at the cost of western lower education workers, whose income has stagnated ever since fiat introduction in 1970s. If ur in a higher education job - you are doing good. Life in is adaptation, ppl need to stop complaining.
globalisation and technology has been key drivers or cause. USA does better than EU because of big tech companies and maybe because of more capitalist laws
Thanks for these great insights. obviously the EU financial system was damaged by Lehman desaster heavier than the US, evident in the EURO crisis in Greece and PIGS states in 2013. Worsening with US geopolitical interests against Russia, splitting Europe into two parts like during cold war. Especially Germany (where I come from) suffers dramatically by cutting off trades with Russia. Europeans would do much better without US hegemony
All euro talant was eager to contribute its dna to a virgin land since geo discovery, ...engage, marrage , nurseing , delivered ,devoced,,,now this lady is Menopaused, the first rhein is ending
G7 GDP figures are over inflated and from hyper-financialized economies. It does not account for Purchasing Power Parity either. Finally, G20 pales in importance compared to BRICS (in critical metrics like key resources, industrial output and trade volume). That's what should be evaluated.
I must say it is the EU who is stupid. When the Russia started war with Ukraine, who is neither a member of EU nor NATO, the US asked EU to sanction Russia by abandoning cheap Russian oil and gas. The EU really bought it. When the EU found out those from the US cost 4 times more the EU knew it was too late. Japan is different as it is owned by the US. When US hikes the interest rate and the yen loses 1/3 its value and we didn't even hear a word from Japan.
In fact we learned recently that Japan doesn't have the right to sell US debt to save its own currency anymore, they need to ask permission to Mrs Yellen first! It is a complete colony and its people will continue to feel the effects .
Most of western Europe and all of Japan are occupied countries. In essence US colonies. Colonies not depleted at the levels of African and South/Central American countries. At least not yet
European leaders knew exactly what they were doing, they just couldn't do otherwise. Germany had been trying to build a second Nord Stream pipeline for a long time, but the US wouldn't allow it. Russia's invasion of Ukraine was exactly what Biden needed to get Europe firmly back under America's thumb, which is one reason Biden completely refused to negotiate any agreement with Russia on not stationing missiles in Ukraine.
@@user-uk3nx8cn4u Arguably Russia started (at least a new phase of) military action. However, it is indeed the western side that explicitly "declared" war (in the mass media) and proceeded to escalate accordingly.
But chinese GDP numbers are opaque and not open to scrutiny. There are good reasons to believe that provinces fudge their numbers significantly to provide a brighter picture that helps the promotion of officers of CCP. It is not possible in democracies. By some estimates China GDP is 60 percent lower than what is shown today.
That what I suspect too. China like to keep at number two just so as not to upset US too much. In reality US knows that China nominal GDP have exceeded that of US
I’d like to see some of these tables reworked to reflect PPP. In that case, China’s share of global GDP (PPP) would be much higher than the US now. The US’s stellar GDP performance also is related to it maintaining a strong US$, which has driven out a lot of manufacturing. But it allowed the US to borrow lots of money cheaply, accumulating a huge amount of debt. That now has turned into a big liability as paying debt takes more and more a share of GDP. The US won’t be able to make its way out of this one. It will have to undergo a big restructuring which could take much of the 21st century. But its global corporations will just sail on successfully with feet in every part of the world. I wouldn’t want to be an American worker over the next 50 years.
The Europeans countries are seeing the picture also and naturally they don’t like it a bit. They realized that they’ve screwed. They are too afraid to challenge the US, the easier option is therefore to challenge China, following the lead of the US. Naturally, the colonial instinct and racism have something to do with that as well. Well, this plays right into the hand of the US. Unfortunately for Europe, it’s a bad hand for them because challenging China is a much tougher job than it appears. China is simply too powerful and influential economically. Europe and Japan will continue to lose out until they come to the conclusion that challenging China is the wrong answer.
The graph showing Gross Domestic Product. How exactly does the United States qualify and quantify its GDP ? It’s mainly a service economy, it’s full of lawyers and regulators and IRS employees and governmental employees and all of the paper pushing participants and businesses that produce actually what tangible product ?
Kevin, you know perfectly well, that the American GDP is 28 trillion is far ahead of the no 2, no economists will tell you why, they know the composition of American GDP, mainly Military and Comsumption, a sort of "Virtual Economy"
US counts government spending in GDP. Government spending is very debt dependent. This can not be considered as wealth, because it is not an appreciating asset or income producing assets. It's just burning future wealth. US debt will lead to a collapse, not wealth.
Brian Humphery Services was my hope during the 'bear summer' last year. I made so many mistakes but also learned so much from it, and of course from Brian.
Well his name is 'Brian Humphery Services'. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Wow. Every one of your videos sheds more light on things. (And the Peiking Duck ending was cool. If I'm ever at the Grand Hyatt I'll be sure to check it out!)
He's documented that extensively. For example by purchasing power parity, Russia is now the 4th largest economy according to the World Bank, ahead of Japan. Costs are low, making Russia more competitive internationally. But keep calling it a gas station and losing your weapons to said gas station, that'll show them 😂
GDP is not wealth. It is the wealth of the rich in case of USA. If you combine the number of millionaires and the ones in billions you can see clear picture. It is really grim...Also loved how the video ended. Be good. Wow
of course it is wealth, GDP is wealth of a country not individual, that's why India gets to have a space and nuclear weapons programs while citizens don't have clean water because 1.5 billion people earning $1 is more in the budget than 1000 people earning $100k, what is your comment trying to say I've no idea
Outside accounting firms want to see the data. And they make visits to verify inventory on the books is actually there. Hand waving and talk don’t cut it. This video reminds me of best accounting standards.
In fact, before populism in US cracked down on Musk and Tesla, I always believed that the electric vehicle industry was a jointly effort for China and the United States to take back their own auto markets from Japan and Germany. Without Chinese engineers, Tesla's upgrade speed has become too slow.
La velocidad a la que se producen los cambios es el cambio más trascendente de todos porque cuando se hace exponencial el pensamiento lineal se queda siempre rezagado frente a los acontecimientos y no alcanza a entenderlos ni a anticiparlos.
If we take into account the population of every country, how is the chart? In its long history, China has been ranked top in the world, it is after 1880s that China quickly lagged behind, but that doesn’t mean China will lag behind forever. China returns to the position it once had is very certain.
All the other empires or civilizations died or went away. Only the chinese civilization kept rising after a decline, a book from a scholar I've read said China rose and fell and this is its fifth rise since the start of their civilization.
My analysis: In 1980's-1990's China look poor, and the US want to use that "CHEAP" labor from any poor country at that time, China provide better labor than India because the law and order in China is pretty stable, thus a good place to invest This is *NOT* about the US think that they can work with China, For the US is about exploiting/using the cheap labor For Chinese is about getting money and knowledge to have bigger business/opportunity.
That seems like a pretty accurate analysis. The US moved offshore to exploit huge opportunities for profit, as it did with Taiwan,Japan and Korea in previous decades. Unfortunately for America, the US wasn’t’t able to wrestle political power away from China and instead created a Goliath competitor.
@@trekpac2 This is true. Japan is down with the Plaza Accord. Taiwan & S. Korea also not dare to cross the US. The current trade war, started from the Alaska meting is the turning point that China say "no"
European economies have been stagnating for so long while emerging and burgeoning economies like that of China or India have gobbled up shares of the global GDP really rapidly.
in or around the mid 1800's it was the first transfer of wealth/lootings from Asia, Africa, and Latin America to the West. the west's economies are stagnating because the exploitation and looting had slow down or stopped.
2008 the EU was passing the US in productivity and just before added 7 more countries, that shook the EU up, but after only two years of tempered growth productivity started shooting up again, the 2008 crash made that there was a real possibility the US within only a few years would only be half the size of the EU economy. That is the point the US took over our politics and intelligence services. Effectively declared war on the European population. And started stealing hundreds of billions of tax income from EU countries through a Dutch exit.
Gdp is an absolute number based on the ŰȘ dollar. It's meaningless. Ppp is relative, based on cost of goods aka "purchasing power" of the local currency being used locally
How much of the US's "GDP" is that of the rentier set? With the very regular "revising" of data by their economists, that figure is becoming pretty meaningless. A LOT of US "GDP" is based on the "service" economies, including the very bloated "Healthcare" sector.
As always really good analysis, consider touching upon China’s Dam building inside and outside China and how this is also being used to great effect building relationships and bring down the cost of Hydrogen production another industry China is most likely going to dominate.
FIRE (Finance and real estate), service sector, plus government spending (most of it MIC). Nothing really tangible to the betterment of the mass population
The conclusion is that China is rising and the US is at pause. As China grows in technology, the US GDP percent in the world will fall. The US will look like Japan as China takes over the leadership in several key technologies like ship building, transportation, nuclear energy, and aerospace.
No us can be like the uk after ww2. They still have alot of tech. But if they continue with this cold war mentality they will lose. Because last time they had the g7 and eu countries to help now the power and people are in asean and africa.
The US would be substantially lower in global GDP share if it didn't have the reserve currency. At this point in time, it's an unearned privilege that needs to go away.
I would say that all this growth in US GDP is based on dollar inflation, not on real growth. The dollar system exports inflation to the rest of the world, i.e., local currencies lose value while the dollar grows - exactly what is happening now in Japan. This creates the illusion that the GDP of the USA is going up, when in terms of real production it has stagnated or even decreased. The only way for other countries to stop this is to get away from the dollar system, so the USD can finally go down in price without taking the whole world economy with it.
Wrong! American students are milked like dairy stock by loan sharks and leave college $100k to $250k in debt. Young working class people don't see the advantage any more to get a degree, when you have to start your independent life with an second debt that is about half of the average mortgage.
That Global GDP chart would probably look very different if it was expressed as PPP. And when you take the FIRE component out as well, the US has fallen off a cliff. For instance , industrial production in China matches or surpasses BOTH US and European industrial production. We're one major economic collapse away from that all shaking out and consigning that graph to the dustbin.
What you said is true based on numbers alone, however you need to add in the fact that USA's GDP is artificially propped up by the weapon sales from the wars it's created
Thank You Sir very very accurate and complete information about how the world economy is unfolding I wonder why very very limited subscription This shows how the so called educated middle class is so ignorant about the most important changes which is happening infront of everyones eyes There is no meaning for the degrees thay are awarded with
Peking duck is so good! There's a story about Japan that didn't get told, how their economy was skyrocketing in the mid-1980s (at the direct expense of the EU). Japan jumped from 10% to 15% in 1985 - they year that the US forced Japan to sign the Plaza Accord, leading to the Lost Decades. Japan continued to take share before peaking at 17+% in the mid-1990s before falling down tbelow 4% today. Compare with Trump's tariffs and sanctions starting when China hit 15% of the global GDP. Unlike Japan, China didn't capitulate and they're still holding at 17+% today. With 150+ countries in the Global South as China's BRI partners, and the world's largest domestic market, there's a strong change that China continues to maintain share. Indeed, it's not unreasonable to imagine China ultimately reaching 20-25% of global GDP over the coming decades.
The chart shows China's rise between 1995 - 2010 was primarily at Japan's expnse. And after that at Europe's expense. The US I think has been able to maintain its GDP at Europe's expense as well. But as Europe gets tapped out the US may see a similar trend.
China is missing one major piece of software dominance … a dominating computer operating system. This year Huawei will likely introduce an OS that will ultimately be installed in a billion computers
You work for 40yrs to have $1m in your retirement, Meanwhile some people are putting just $10k in a meme coin for just few months and now they are multi millionaires. I pray that anyone who reads this will be successful in life
❤❤❤Kevin, thanks for a very insightful piece, Mind you, the number of Chinese going to foreign countries may be slightly undercounted as I notice you have not included some non anglophone countries such as Russia, Byrussia, Ukraine (pre war), Scandinavian countries, etc. I think traditionally and currently many Chinese students study engineering, science and technology in Russia. The US-China were progressing well as were the mutual benefits.. then we lost our national confidence, became paranoiac and instituted a whole series of self harming policies in our panic. These xenophobic tendencies were played up by our “free” media.. voila, we now lapse back to a McCarthy-like era of yore that may harm not only our relationship with China.. but are being left behind in almost every sphere of international relation. We are being ruled by visionless geniasses .. let’s hope we have someone to change our course in the next four years.🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸😁💰💰
it means university student from china will learn faster if each student attempt 1 different subject and peer review it. Yes , it might mean many original paper will likely be wrong , since most subject have never been peer reviewed
The S&P 500 is regarded as a gauge of the large cap U.S. equities market. The index includes 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy, which are publicly held on either the NYSE or NASDAQ, and covers 75% of U.S. equities. us corporate profits after tax vs SP500 index is 3.168 : 5.531. There is a difference of about 2363.
